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Size of the Science Fiction market?

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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by MaxxQ   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:43 pm

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SWM wrote: I actually read Star Wars (the original) nearly a year before the movie came out (Lucas published a preliminary version to help fund the movie production).


That's the one with the Ralph McQuarrie Darth Vader cover art, right? I still have my copy. BTW, you know that was ghost-written by Alan Dean Foster...?

SWM wrote:Fortunately, traditional science fiction does have some victories. I'm glad that David Weber has produced so many.


Same here, although it *is* getting harder to find something like Asimov, Clarke, Ellison, Heinlein, Niven, Pournelle, and so on.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by Castenea   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:10 pm

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MaxxQ wrote:Same here, although it *is* getting harder to find something like Asimov, Clarke, Ellison, Heinlein, Niven, Pournelle, and so on.

Having spoken to some of the employees, you may want to check the literature/classics rack. At least some of them definitely stock Wells and Verne there.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by SWM   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:17 pm

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MaxxQ wrote:
SWM wrote: I actually read Star Wars (the original) nearly a year before the movie came out (Lucas published a preliminary version to help fund the movie production).


That's the one with the Ralph McQuarrie Darth Vader cover art, right? I still have my copy. BTW, you know that was ghost-written by Alan Dean Foster...?

The cover did have Darth Vader, with a mask that looked distinctly different from the mask eventually used in the movie. It probably was Ralph McQuarrie art, but I can't confirm it. When I read it, I didn't know it was going to be a movie, and was quite surprised when I saw commercials for it the following spring. :)

I didn't know that Alan Dean Foster ghost-wrote the novelization, but it doesn't surprise me too much. I may have heard that once and forgot it. His sequel, Splinter of the Mind's Eye, is in my opinion the best Star Wars book ever, even though it was severely contradicted and became non-canon when Episodes V and VI came out. Foster is an example that media science fiction books can be good.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by MaxxQ   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:49 pm

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Castenea wrote:
MaxxQ wrote:Same here, although it *is* getting harder to find something like Asimov, Clarke, Ellison, Heinlein, Niven, Pournelle, and so on.

Having spoken to some of the employees, you may want to check the literature/classics rack. At least some of them definitely stock Wells and Verne there.


What I meant was finding new writers in the same vein as those greats. I already have most, if not all that want from those I mentioned, but it would be nice to have newer writers that can write almost as well, or even better.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by kzt   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:39 pm

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SWM wrote:I actually read Star Wars (the original) nearly a year before the movie came out (Lucas published a preliminary version to help fund the movie production).

That was actually Alan Dean Foster. Lucas has admitted as much.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by kzt   » Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:43 pm

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SWM wrote:His sequel, Splinter of the Mind's Eye, is in my opinion the best Star Wars book ever, even though it was severely contradicted and became non-canon when Episodes V and VI came out. Foster is an example that media science fiction books can be good.

I assume that the sequel was part of the deal.

Zahn did a very, very good SW series. I almost never read them, but those are worth it. It's why I have some hope for his Honorverse books.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by ericth   » Mon Jun 22, 2015 1:47 pm

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I came across this post from Brandon Sanderson about the publishing market and thought it would be a nice addendum to this topic:

The link is here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/writing/comment ... ?context=3

The pertinent text is here (there is a reply that mentions that Bookscan now tracks EBooks)
From Brandon:
---------------------------------------------------
There is, actually. It's called bookscan, and is generally only available to insiders. (But if you can find someone with access, you can track books back for two decades of sales info.)

Problem is, it doesn't track ebooks. (Because Amazon doesn't release them.) I wish this info were more public too, personally. But I can try to guess a kind of rough estimate, based on what I've seen. (This is for first year ebook/hardcover combined, and only applies to fiction books, and not those by a celebrity.)

On the chopping block: 5k (This is a book that did modestly well, but is probably overall losing money for the publisher. Some would keep publishing an author at this level, depending on expectations of growth, award recognition, or niche interest.)

Solid seller: 5k-10k (This is a book most publishers will always be pleased with, and will continue to pay a decent advance for. This author may not make a healthy living on their book unless they can do more than one a year, but will probably always have a writing career.)

High midlister: 10k-20k (This is an author who is well known in their genre, is a dependable seller, and has a dedicated--but small-fanbase. If you can find a writer with a number of books on the shelf, but they don't chart often on the NYT list with new books, they are probably in this category.)

Genre Bestseller: 20k-50k (This is a book that charts on the bestseller lists without hitting the #1 spot. Authors who hit this consistently set trends in the industry, are well known in their genres, and are pulling low six figure advances. Breaking out of this level and into the next takes serious luck, even in a field which already requires a lot of luck.)

Dominant Genre Bestseller: 50k-300k (These are the books that hit #1 on the bestseller list. Authors who do this consistently with each new book are generally at the top of their field, and are probably what you consider "super popular" in your post. But they--we, as this is where I am--are small potatoes compared to the next levels.)

Breakout Bestseller: 300k-1mil (These are books that "break out" of their genre, or are the top of larger genres, like thrillers. Teen books with a lot of momentum can hit here too. Books in this category sell in airports or walmarts to the general public for months, as opposed to those in the category below, which sell really, really well for one week--but only because fans buy their books week one, rather than waiting. I've outsold Dan Brown and John Grisham...for one week. The next week, they trounced me.)

Movie Books: 1-5mil (These are books from one of the other categories that have a film come out recently. Also, the tail end of the breakout bestsellers and the beginnings of phenomenon books. It gets really blurry in here as we're dealing with such large swaths of numbers. Game of Thrones books are in here, I believe. Note that they basically jumped over the category between, which often happens in sf/f when you get a film or tv show.)

Phenomenon books: 5-20+mil (These are books that somehow SUPER break the mold, for reasons nobody really understands. DaVinci Code. Harry Potter. Twilight.)
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by SWM   » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:16 pm

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Nice numbers. Thanks!
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by kzt   » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:47 pm

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Larry Coreia had a post on his blog that classified writers based on income from a list to z list. A list required that someone build a theme park named after you characters or you could afford to live in a house made of sold gold bars.
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Re: Size of the Science Fiction market?
Post by HB of CJ   » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:17 pm

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Soss ... for an unknown writer to even break into the field, perhaps the best idea would be a science fiction novel morphed into a childrens book wrapped around a steamy romance with a little bit of porn thrown in for good measure? Sounds good to me. HB :)
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