FriarBob wrote:Speculative SpoilersWell if Raynahld won't surrender, then Thirsk has to get rid of him somehow. I don't know when, I don't even know how, but Raynahld HAS to go. Or at least go through as much of a wake-up process as Thirsk already has, but do you honestly see that as likely?
And even if Raynahld does, as unlikely as that is, the rest of the nobles also have to wake up AND let go of their personal enmity towards Thirsk. Given that so many of them have ties of blood to Malikai, that is even less likely than Raynahld waking up.
But despite the heavy influence of the nobility in the RDA, it's more traditional to send the second son off to the Army, not the heir. Certainly at least in societies where the military is not the central source of political power. Weber knows his history 10x better than we do, do you really think it likely he forgot that? Or even bothered trying to do the mental gymnastics necessary to come up with an excuse for changing that pattern on Safehold? I could see Desnair sending all sons off to the Army. I don't think Dohlar has been portrayed the same way.
And most of those nobles will be in Gorath because that's where the court is. Likely so will many of the heirs. But without an outright nuke or maybe extremely heavy use of incendiaries, I can't see mere shelling killing off enough of them to clear the driftwood out of the way for Thirsk to rise to power.
So just crushing the army or shelling the city doesn't seem to be anywhere near enough in my book. Removing those second sons will do nothing to eliminate the built-in family ties to Malikai and that will leave Thirsk with a huge "resistance" to deal with even if he does somehow seize power. And merely shelling the city won't remove enough of those nobles -- especially not given how much the Charisians have practically bent over backwards to avoid civilian atrocities.
And do you really think just losing the war and/or their fleet and taking massive infrastructure damage will be enough to "wake up" all those nobles? If so, well I kinda half-hope you're right, but I really don't think you actually are.
I should have said that gorath was raided and destroyed, but that they forces doing the raiding moved on to rinse and repeat the other port cities. So long as Thirsk remains at large and not captured under those conditions, he can reconstruct the remaining Dohlaran forces once the ICN departs. I believe the ICN will depart because staying does not advance their mainland strategy at all. Staying too long will only allow more war making material to go through the other port cities like Dairnyth.
Of all the cites on the Dohlaran coast, only Dairnyth is remotely worth trying to keep. I believe this is pretty obvious. Obvious to the reader and certainly to the strategic minds of the principal characters. Yet not keeping doesn't mean not raiding in force. Send in the protected cruisers to shell the snot out of the forts protecting the city. Land some forces outside the city and work inwards. Odds are the land forces neartes the city don't have the newest equiptment. Those would be sent forward into Siddermark. So, how many ICA or marine units with paper cartrige Mahndrayn's or better yet brass cartrige Mahndrayn's firing smokless powder would it take to deal with pike and arbelest armed soldiers?
My guess is not very many to shatter such formations. Once shattered those RDA can't stop the ICA/Marines from taking the city apart stone by stone. Raynahld would likely be caught just like all those first born sons you hypothesized accompanying him. Thirsk on the other hand would be safe and sound on a life boat out in the harbor. I can see Cayleb repaying Thirsk by leaving him out there. Meanwhile, he can carry out the sentence of death on all those Inquisitors and the secular authorities that allowed Charisian POWs tortured and killed. Thirsk would be branded as an enemy of Charis but would remain free.
That's what I hope may happen. It won't take too much handwavium either. If done right, none at all.
Btw, I do not claim this idea as my own and like every other bit of my speculation on this forum, I do not claim any rights to it. David is free to either use or ignore my posts at his pleasure.
