MASSIVE SPOILER about next book hardware

chickladoria wrote:Maybe my biochemical memory is failing, but I recall reading that Jason Connor (ok not spelled correctly) speculates on the coal being mined before a particular canal is built. This suggests that at least one canal post-dates creation, and there could be others. I do not know the particulars of pre-mechanical dredging ,but with coffer dams and human/animal power it must be done where necessary - but to what depth?

RFC mentioned above that they CAN be created by manual labor, but that it requires LOTS of time and LOTS of people to do it in a pre-dynamite world.

And yes, the Tairys canal was created only about a hundred years ago. This was part of my argument for Siddarmark being at least a bit of an economic powerhouse (even before they started flaunting the embargo) if they were willing to spend the time and labor on a canal for a product that doesn't appear to be their primary export. (Of course, after the canal was made the product may have become a primary export... or perhaps I just misread things... but I always got the impression grain and cotton were far more important exports for them.)

The Temple Lands built their entire ship building industry from scratch, FB. I suspect they expensded their foundries and smelters while building their ship yards. My point was that the expanded sites were more concentrated than those in Harchong. Similar dispersal patterns also existed in South Harchong. Recall all those coasters Gwyllym sunk early in his campaign carrying cannon? Add to this the actual supplies Gwyllum destroyed and it explains South Harchong also fell behind. Cannon and metal ingots were being carried to their final destinations.

Harchong had the existing foundries. Lots of them all spread out. Managing a dispersed base of production is tough even if one is good at it. Harchong obviously isn't.

While you are certainly right that RFC was hinting at something, we need one more clue to connect to this bit of datum to determine what that thing is. I am sure that picking at this idea for the next month or two until MTaT snippets come out will bear fruit.

FriarBob wrote:Well you have a good point about the northern shipyards which were producing "totally unarmed" ships. But while the Temple Lands have that enormous Temple Bay to help out, they still have a lot of Passage-bordering territory and we know they had at least one major shipyard/naval-base somewhere further to the East where they were massing their ships prior to what became the most decisive (so far) and largest naval battle ever (so far) north of Tarot. Why did this area have canals when Harchong didn't? (Unless you want me to believe they had a major naval base there but no foundries or ammunition production capacity? Which I'd find a bit much to swallow.)

And what about South Harchong? Dohlar was exporting guns to them, which suggests that even though North Harchong was far worse, South Harchong wasn't exactly covering themselves with glory either. Why didn't they have canals? (Or if canals weren't as big a factor here, why not?)

Also let's keep in mind that the only reason the canals would matter would be because of the effects of privateers on the high seas. And we know the privateers were ranging up both coasts of Howard, but they were never explicitly stated as ranging up the west side of Haven, only the East side. Nor were they ever explicitly stated as having ventured into the Passage, only all the way "to" the Passage. So if North Harchong's shipyards were built along the Passage and supplied from the Desolation Mountains, the privateers must have been getting VERY ambitious... OR the Passage was never a factor in the production of the ships at all.

PeterZ wrote:Look at the jiltanith map for Safehold. All the Harchong locations that couldn't complete their quota of ships were supplied by the Desolation Mountains in all likelihood. Most of the northern Harchong coast is a relatively narrow strip of land between Hsing-wu's Passage and the Desolation Mountains. Why would canals be built? They could use the passage to carry ore to their northern yards.

IIRC, there were two issues. First, Harchong relied on many small forges. Second, the winter freezes the passage solid. The distribution system was less efficient than Dohlar's due to the greater number of forges and the time available to distribute the ore was also more limited. Had Harchong concentrated their forges and smelters, they may have been able to pace Dohlar's and Ithrya's production. As it was the Harchong navy could not manage all those dispersed locations well enough to improve the average production to keep pace with the other naval yards.

That's my take away, anyway.

I have a theory:
In Harchong there are canals. However they exist only to serve feudal ends. bguilt by possibly generations of laborers they are small and of limited utility especially since they will cross into other feudal lord's territory. The lack of cooperation between petty nobles seemingly only to produce lumber in any quantity seems to prove the point. This could be due to the purposeful lack of trained ( and thinking) personal to man the smiths or smelters. This may be the reason for the lack of guns but the ships were built, albeit poorly by unskilled labor.

Again I agree with your "facts" but not sure I buy your interpretation. Sure the Temple Lands built from scratch, but it would seem that they would logically try to build where they could easily support the new facilities. Remember how others were talking earlier in the thread about how towns would grow because they got a railroad and die because they didn't? I would think something similar would apply here, at least in the ability to create major production nodes. So why would they build a major naval base (and shipyard, and foundry) in a spot that has very similar terrain features to the areas where Harchong chose NOT to build canals... yet they apparently DID have one/some? Still doesn't really add up for me.

However, the "major production nodes" issue probably also explains why you're likely right about South Harchong, at least in some areas. I had forgotten about the sinking of the coasters, but that does fit with your assumption of lots of small foundries.

But that still doesn't explain why they didn't have the canals in the first place. The only answer I can come up with here (so far, at least) is "feudalism". (And as soon as I type this somebody else comes up with the same answer... we had the same idea at almost exactly the same time, HA!) Since the nobility owned their serfs and/or slaves outright, there is probably little or no way to hire additional workers for "major" projects that are short-term. But even then, when the Emperor saw what the canals were doing for his rivals' economies, I'm somewhat surprised he didn't put his slaves to work on projects like that, and/or come out with some sort of proclamation/law that would make it at least somewhat easier to do projects like this.

PeterZ wrote:The Temple Lands built their entire ship building industry from scratch, FB. I suspect they expensded their foundries and smelters while building their ship yards. My point was that the expanded sites were more concentrated than those in Harchong. Similar dispersal patterns also existed in South Harchong. Recall all those coasters Gwyllym sunk early in his campaign carrying cannon? Add to this the actual supplies Gwyllum destroyed and it explains South Harchong also fell behind. Cannon and metal ingots were being carried to their final destinations.

Harchong had the existing foundries. Lots of them all spread out. Managing a dispersed base of production is tough even if one is good at it. Harchong obviously isn't.

While you are certainly right that RFC was hinting at something, we need one more clue to connect to this bit of datum to determine what that thing is. I am sure that picking at this idea for the next month or two until MTaT snippets come out will bear fruit.

FriarBob wrote:Well you have a good point about the northern shipyards which were producing "totally unarmed" ships. But while the Temple Lands have that enormous Temple Bay to help out, they still have a lot of Passage-bordering territory and we know they had at least one major shipyard/naval-base somewhere further to the East where they were massing their ships prior to what became the most decisive (so far) and largest naval battle ever (so far) north of Tarot. Why did this area have canals when Harchong didn't? (Unless you want me to believe they had a major naval base there but no foundries or ammunition production capacity? Which I'd find a bit much to swallow.)

And what about South Harchong? Dohlar was exporting guns to them, which suggests that even though North Harchong was far worse, South Harchong wasn't exactly covering themselves with glory either. Why didn't they have canals? (Or if canals weren't as big a factor here, why not?)

Also let's keep in mind that the only reason the canals would matter would be because of the effects of privateers on the high seas. And we know the privateers were ranging up both coasts of Howard, but they were never explicitly stated as ranging up the west side of Haven, only the East side. Nor were they ever explicitly stated as having ventured into the Passage, only all the way "to" the Passage. So if North Harchong's shipyards were built along the Passage and supplied from the Desolation Mountains, the privateers must have been getting VERY ambitious... OR the Passage was never a factor in the production of the ships at all.

PeterZ wrote:Look at the jiltanith map for Safehold. All the Harchong locations that couldn't complete their quota of ships were supplied by the Desolation Mountains in all likelihood. Most of the northern Harchong coast is a relatively narrow strip of land between Hsing-wu's Passage and the Desolation Mountains. Why would canals be built? They could use the passage to carry ore to their northern yards.

IIRC, there were two issues. First, Harchong relied on many small forges. Second, the winter freezes the passage solid. The distribution system was less efficient than Dohlar's due to the greater number of forges and the time available to distribute the ore was also more limited. Had Harchong concentrated their forges and smelters, they may have been able to pace Dohlar's and Ithrya's production. As it was the Harchong navy could not manage all those dispersed locations well enough to improve the average production to keep pace with the other naval yards.

That's my take away, anyway.

I suppose I was thinking about the Canal Darius built between the Nile and the Red Sea as an example of what simple technology (and a lot of muscle) can accomplish. I agree that towns grow up around either resources, or resource trading centers.

Harchong causes me some problems, I suppose an Emperor could allow Nobles to build a transportation network that doesn't link to his major estates. But I assume that the Emperor has estates, or income generating properties scattered throughout the Empire, thus he would have his economic clout improved by any network built.

Then again, they might not follow the most efficient paths given that labor is low cost. But in the absence of competition they were more than sufficient.

Hi FriarBob,

The building yards along Hsing-wu's passage may have been serviced more by galleons and coasters than from internal canal barges, until we see the canal network we can only guess.

It may be the Imperial Harchong Canal Gauge was set long ago and now limits the amount of traffic, despite being quite extensive.

I suspect that while the fiefdoms in Harchong are quite large (duchy's etc bigger than some countries) the canals do connect and cross other fiefdoms as a matter of course.
The advantages of low cost transportation are too great for smart investors, and no one has ever said the Harchong are stupid.
Granted many duchy's etc may be self sufficient, but there will always be a market for more exclusive items, and those in more frigid climes would appreciated tropical fruit among other things.

L


[quote="FriarBob"]Again I agree with your "facts" but not sure I buy your interpretation. Sure the Temple Lands built from scratch, but it would seem that they would logically try to build where they could easily support the new facilities. Remember how others were talking earlier in the thread about how towns would grow because they got a railroad and die because they didn't? I would think something similar would apply here, at least in the ability to create major production nodes. So why would they build a major naval base (and shipyard, and foundry) in a spot that has very similar terrain features to the areas where Harchong chose NOT to build canals... yet they apparently DID have one/some? Still doesn't really add up for me.

However, the "major production nodes" issue probably also explains why you're likely right about South Harchong, at least in some areas. I had forgotten about the sinking of the coasters, but that does fit with your assumption of lots of small foundries.

But that still doesn't explain why they didn't have the canals in the first place. The only answer I can come up with here (so far, at least) is "feudalism". (And as soon as I type this somebody else comes up with the same answer... we had the same idea at almost exactly the same time, HA!) Since the nobility owned their serfs and/or slaves outright, there is probably little or no way to hire additional workers for "major" projects that are short-term. But even then, when the Emperor saw what the canals were doing for his rivals' economies, I'm somewhat surprised he didn't put his slaves to work on projects like that, and/or come out with some sort of proclamation/law that would make it at least somewhat easier to do projects like this.

[quote="PeterZ"]The Temple Lands built their entire ship building industry from scratch, FB. I suspect they expensded their foundries and smelters while building their ship yards. My point was that the expanded sites were more concentrated than those in Harchong. Similar dispersal patterns also existed in South Harchong. Recall all those coasters Gwyllym sunk early in his campaign carrying cannon? Add to this the actual supplies Gwyllum destroyed and it explains South Harchong also fell behind. Cannon and metal ingots were being carried to their final destinations.

Harchong had the existing foundries. Lots of them all spread out. Managing a dispersed base of production is tough even if one is good at it. Harchong obviously isn't.

While you are certainly right that RFC was hinting at something, we need one more clue to connect to this bit of datum to determine what that thing is. I am sure that picking at this idea for the next month or two until MTaT snippets come out will bear fruit.


SNIPPED

Hello Mr Weber, Lyonheart

If I might add to lyonheart's question about the possibility of canal maps in <MTAT>, if there are such maps, will they also be made available to those of us that read our stories in ebook form ??

I have already been somewhat confused by the fact that I do not have an updated map of Safehold and am forced to try following many of these posts without an up-to-date picture of the gulf of Jaris (my digital map shows NO possible water link from the gulf of Mathyas toward North Watch).

R

Hi PeterZ,

Rivers and canals will definitely influence the land war in major ways.

We have had no river course data on the big maps when these have often been delineated on even political maps of earth because of their importance.

It's been why I've said the storyline is focused on the seas and oceans.

I thought some physical reason why the canal wasn't available was acceptable, but given its importance in bypassing the time shipping around Howard it should have come up sooner, even if just mentioned in passing.

The ironclad galleys should have displacements of at least a few hundred tons if they're the same size as the coastal or "Mediterranean" galleys RFC has mentioned in OAR and BSRA, as opposed to the larger Charisian galleys that were designed more for sailing the seas, not rowing.
If they're smaller than those, that could be interesting as well, but the armor needed to protect the rowers could be quite thin if their so small, So I doubt they're really intended to go in harm's way against real warships; rather they are to raid Charisian shipping in Silkian ports in the Gulf of Mathyas, or Siddarmark.
How quickly they appear in MTaT will be very interesting indeed.

I suspect they will learn real sailing warships with explosive shells are much more dangerous, and attempt to avoid them, and I wonder if even a pair of schooners might best one.

I can see Clyntahn ordering them to attack the ICN anchorage in Tarot, but losing the whole kit and caboodle trying to carry out his stupid orders.

A canal spanning the isthmus is so obvious, I think all who expected one should pat themselves on the back for being right.

L

PeterZ wrote:Sorry Lyonheart, but I think with holding the canal data was more important than simply providing us with more goodies to speculate over. You know those canals will dictate the overall strategy of a land war. Heck, they have been one of the key elements of Dohlar's success in developing a more modern navy.

If we had a map of the canals or even key canals, the startegy against Siddermark will be obvious. Any surprises he has planned for us will may very well appear contrived as a consequence. Heaven forbid such a turn of events!

RFC did post that the Silkiah canal is too small for current ocean going galleons. If only small galleys could fit, a 2,000 ton frigate is out of the question and a 6,000 ton protected cruiser is truly out of the question regardless of draft. Bummer! I thought I was right on this one.

runsforcelery wrote:[Obviously, the Church isn't going to worry about demilitarization of canals at this point, but blue-water galleons aren't going to fit through it too well. The older canals have smaller locks than more recent ones, and this is quite an old one . . . which is why I made the point in an earlierpost that they might beable to get small galleys through it.

All of this does suggest that Charis will have to start developing their network of coaling stations/colonies. The question that comes to mind is who will they use to populate those colonies? The Harchong slave POWs? Siddermarkian refugees? Disaffected Imperial Charisian citizens?

Whoever, the colonies have to get started soon if Gwyllym and King Haarald's name sakes are to be used by Safehold #7. So, where will MTaT show the first colony being started? I have my suspicions but would prefer to hear others first.

Anyone?

lyonheart wrote:Hello PeterZ,

Thanks for your kind response.

I've always presumed there were many canals on Haven and Howard, just that we've had no detailed map or textev confirmation other than passing references.

However one of my points was that why didn't we hear about the Silkiah canal earlier, such as in OAR?

Such a canal would have dramatically affected trade enough to be at least mentioned, and given how much smaller ships crossed the Atlantic with Columbus, the maximum possible size ships to use the Silkian canal would have been a cap on ship size for decades if not centuries, and probably mentioned in the background, yes?

Especially since I think most if not all of Dohlar's galleys could have fitted through the 20' draft cited for the canal, not to mention its width; and even if they could have done it fully laded as I expect, it would have been very easy for them to unload almost everything onto a barge they or somebody towed behind them through the canal to be sure they could use the canal, then reloaded once they reached the Gulf of Mathyas, then on to Tarot, very quickly etc.

Only there's not a hint of anything close to that even suggested, may I ask why?

Now its quite possible the canal was down for renovation or repair (and everybody in OAR knew it except us the readers); no mention yet of any locks that might need repair, but there could also have been a a landslide or slump that collapsed part of the canal, or an earthquake that ruined some locks etc, or a mud volcano that blocked an entrance, but given its importance, it should have received some mention in passing why they were going around Howard when they might have taken a short cut if the canal had been up.

All this time we've been discussing, sometimes strongly whether there was any isthmian canal; and apparently there always has been, not quite where it seemed most likely, but there nonetheless, so any hint would have been very much appreciated.

I realize RFC needs to keep his creative options open, and I very much sympathize, still some cards may have been held too close.

The Silkiah canal would be at least twice as long as the suggested Jahras canal, and thus be subject to tidal effects, which could effect its utility if all traffic were grounded once or twice a day, which could also affect what kind of ships could use it unless they were put into dry-dock type cradles on a known schedule along the canal.

While Silkiah has some independence despite being a tributary of Desnar, how it has been able to skirt the embargo without a large army of its own is worth some further explanation, hopefully in MTaT.

The proximity of Desnar to the canal might also be a factor of international interest, but given the temple's overriding power, the Silkian's interests have been ignored until now, but that could change dramatically by #7.

Protected and Armored cruisers could very well appear in #7 as the obvious force multipliers you suggest, while the ironclads actually see action; since the first steam engine will finally appear in MTaT, it will be awhile before the production can supply the ironclads, as I strongly doubt they are first in line.

If the ironclads aren't used to take and open the canal to the EoC in #7 etc, I will be surprised.

L

Hey Guys,

I think all this talk about missing or existing Canals in Harchong having anything to do with the reason why they did not produce sufficient cannons may ignore the most logical explanation.
Harchong is a completely corrupt kingdom where all the power lies with the nobles, but most if not all the work is done by serfs or slaves.
Producing cannon of sufficient quality needs a certain amount of expertise and dedication. Do you believe that Harchong serfs and slaves have this expertise and dedication? Do you think Harchong nobles would be willing to train their serfs and slaves to that level?
Also, remember, there were a lot a foundries in Harchong, but they were all quite small. This means each foundry, no matter how small, that produced cannon, needed this expertise. I don't think Harchong had the necessary skilled workforce to cover all the foundries.
Charis on the other hand has huge foundries, which needs fewer experts.

Galley, schmalley! 2 double boilers and the twin screws weigh far less than the oarsmen to power a galley. Bunkerage is another issue. In other words both would draw about 10-15 feet abd be within the parameters of the Silkiah canal. What type of fram do you think the armoured riverboats will designed around, Lyonheart?

Now we are between the horns of a dilema. Shall we expect the armoured riverboats to trash Gorath? Shall we expect them to sail up the Siddermark canals and trash the supply depots for the Army of God? What shall we expect..oh My!?!

I say both things are on the menu for MTaT.

lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,

Rivers and canals will definitely influence the land war in major ways.

We have had no river course data on the big maps when these have often been delineated on even political maps of earth because of their importance.

It's been why I've said the storyline is focused on the seas and oceans.

I thought some physical reason why the canal wasn't available was acceptable, but given its importance in bypassing the time shipping around Howard it should have come up sooner, even if just mentioned in passing.

The ironclad galleys should have displacements of at least a few hundred tons if they're the same size as the coastal or "Mediterranean" galleys RFC has mentioned in OAR and BSRA, as opposed to the larger Charisian galleys that were designed more for sailing the seas, not rowing.
If they're smaller than those, that could be interesting as well, but the armor needed to protect the rowers could be quite thin if their so small, So I doubt they're really intended to go in harm's way against real warships; rather they are to raid Charisian shipping in Silkian ports in the Gulf of Mathyas, or Siddarmark.
How quickly they appear in MTaT will be very interesting indeed.

I suspect they will learn real sailing warships with explosive shells are much more dangerous, and attempt to avoid them, and I wonder if even a pair of schooners might best one.

I can see Clyntahn ordering them to attack the ICN anchorage in Tarot, but losing the whole kit and caboodle trying to carry out his stupid orders.

A canal spanning the isthmus is so obvious, I think all who expected one should pat themselves on the back for being right.

L