April's thought experiment

tlb wrote:The author has been adamant in the past about not building warships in Silesia. I do not remember any similar comments about the Talbott Quarter. However, was this just while the war was being hotly contested and might be relaxed now?

One issue with the Manticoran half of Silesia is that (IIRC) they're holding it as a protectorate, and not an integral part of the SEM. At some point it might be allowed to go its own way -- and Manticore probably doesn't want to have spent a ton of money massively upgrading naval yards in systems that might well go their own way. (Even if there weren't heightened concerns about espionage and security in those yards while still a Manticoran protectorate)

The Andies, in contrast, are (again IIRC) directly incorporating their half of Silesia into their empire. So naval yards might spring up in their half of Silesia long before they do in the Manticoran half.

tlb wrote:I do NOT expect a export version of anything with Manticore's multi-drive missile capability in the near future. Maybe after the Solarian League cracks the buffer technology that allows multiple drive rings on a single missile body.

Agreed.

Maybe export designs with off-bore firing ERMs. That's not as sensitive a technology and if somebody reverse engineers it that shouldn't provide any help on making significantly better missiles. But it still overmatches anybody's old SDM designs.

Or if they want to offer something more capable for CAs and BCs maybe export designs based around cataphracts. After all, the SLN has them and the Grand Alliance seized all their central naval R&D databases at (IIRC) Ganymede. Should be straightforward enough to make an export-grade Manticoran version.

tlb wrote:I do NOT expect a export version of anything with Manticore's multi-drive missile capability in the near future. Maybe after the Solarian League cracks the buffer technology that allows multiple drive rings on a single missile body.

Jonathan_S wrote:Agreed.

Maybe export designs with off-bore firing ERMs. That's not as sensitive a technology and if somebody reverse engineers it that shouldn't provide any help on making significantly better missiles. But it still overmatches anybody's old SDM designs.

Or if they want to offer something more capable for CAs and BCs maybe export designs based around cataphracts. After all, the SLN has them and the Grand Alliance seized all their central naval R&D databases at (IIRC) Ganymede. Should be straightforward enough to make an export-grade Manticoran version.

But would they want to be second-movers in this market? It will exist, it's just a matter of when. And we know Erewhon's Carlucci Industries are making them, both for the ESN and for the Maya Sector Navy. Maybe the Erewhon government won't allow selling to other entities, but that government seems to give the financial aspect a higher precedence than the military aspect.

Another issue is that Galton definitely had newer designs, so the GA has to assume that everything there made their way to Technodyne in Yildun, which refuses to comply with orders to submit documentation. The commercial interests won't want to be second movers after Technodyne floods the market with their products, even if the majority will be absorbed by the SLN.

In any case, the main advantages in the ships are not the ship designs themselves. It's:

• the increased automation;
• the beta-squared nodes providing far higher accelerations;
• the quantum baffles allowing for true MDMs;
• the micro-fusion and fission reactors;
• the miniaturised FTL transceivers.

Of those, I suspect the quantum baffles will be the first to fall, because the SLN and thus TIY will have samples to reverse engineer from (we know the MAlign does, so they may decide to pass the advantage too). The increased automation is probably also just evolutionary, not revolutionary, and it does not provide an advantage outside of war-time situations.

All of which are also reasons not to build Sag-B and Reliants.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In any case, the main advantages in the ships are not the ship designs themselves. It's:

• the increased automation;
• the beta-squared nodes providing far higher accelerations;
• the quantum baffles allowing for true MDMs;
• the micro-fusion and fission reactors;
• the miniaturised FTL transceivers.

I'm failing to quickly come up with the quote about the full warships to carry beta-squared nodes (I thought it was the Saganami (A)s; but I'm not finding it).

However I believe the beta-squared nodes only provide far higher acceleration in LACs -- due to being almost as powerful as old-style alpha nodes. And historically LACs, with only beta nodes, were dramatically underpowered and had accelerations far below what you'd expect for their diminutive tonnage (actually accelerating marginally slower than an SD!!)

Warships already have alpha nodes, and so beta-squared don't appear to be a factor in their improved acceleration. That appears to be down to steady improvements in the inertial compensator (an item that should also be on your list).

IIRC for warships the beta-squared nodes simply free up mass and volume since a beta ring made of 8 beta-squared nodes take up less room than one of 16 classic beta nodes.
[And it doesn't hurt that the RMN ones were designed from the ground up to be bow wall compatible & to support high FTL data rates. There's nothing stopping them from designing classic beta nodes with those features; but it's already baked into the beta-squared design]

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In any case, the main advantages in the ships are not the ship designs themselves. It's:

• the increased automation;
• the beta-squared nodes providing far higher accelerations;
• the quantum baffles allowing for true MDMs;
• the micro-fusion and fission reactors;
• the miniaturised FTL transceivers.

Of those, I suspect the quantum baffles will be the first to fall, because the SLN and thus TIY will have samples to reverse engineer from (we know the MAlign does, so they may decide to pass the advantage too). The increased automation is probably also just evolutionary, not revolutionary, and it does not provide an advantage outside of war-time situations.

I realized too late that I should have also included the micro-fusion and agree with that list of things that they would not want to export. One other thing that is not widely known is the compensator based on Grayson's technology.

Where and when did the SLN, TTY and the Malign get samples of the quantum-baffles? I do not remember Erewhon turning anything over to anyone except Haven and the Maya Sector. Besides, they did not have everything. According to War of Honor they got the following:

Erewhon didn't have the full Ghost Rider tech package, or the beta-squared nodes, or the LAC fission plants, but they had just about everything else . . . including the newest compensator version and the latest grav-pulse transmitters. When Foraker gets her hands on that and starts reverse-engineering it, we're going to be in an even worse mess than we are now.

According to the Honorverse Wiki the Erewhon missile given to the Maya Sector was:

The Mark 17E was an extended time, single drive missile derivative of the Royal Manticoran Navy's Mark 14 missile. The missile was developed and put into use in the early 1920s PD by the Erewhonese Navy and the Solarian League Navy.

Although that says SLN; it was only the ships in the Maya Sector, who found them perhaps equaled by the new Cataphracts.

tlb wrote:Where and when did the SLN, TTY and the Malign get samples of the quantum-baffles? I do not remember Erewhon turning anything over to anyone except Haven and the Maya Sector. Besides, they did not have everything.

I'm not saying it was via Erewhon and Maya. In fact, those specifically kept the tech away from the SL, while giving just enough hints to keep the SL off their backs. Barregos and Roszak were very smart in this. So I am also assuming their opsec was fairly tight too. The MAlign did try to infiltrate them, though. So it's possible some things leaked.

No, I expect the MAlign to have acquired quantum baffles from other occasions. The RMN did expend missiles at several engagements during the war with the SL, and though most of the time they were the winners and thus were able to clean up after everything, it may not have always been the case. There may have been "off screen" engagements where the RMN had to withdraw.

No secret will remain a secret forever either. The MAlign had been trying to infiltrate the RMN for 10 T-years or more and we know they had agents in place, which were roped in with treecat-led interrogations. We know Haven had samples too, which is how Foraker was able to put their own true MDMs into production by Operation Thunderbolt, and we know the MAlign had agents in Haven too - even more than in Manticore. We know Haven leaked like a sieve prior to Theisman and Foraker, especially until they relocated the production to Bolthole. All the samples that the Pierre regime had acquired prior to the coup would have been far less secure. And until the deal with Erewhon, they were still working with SL companies.

Anyway, the point is that the RMN and the GA in general must assume the secret has already leaked and it's a matter of time until someone puts the R&D together. In fact, it's very likely it has already happened and that's what the MAN Ninurta missile will be.

But going back to my point: right now, everyone and their grandma are designing ships to fire DDMs and MDMs, whether they have those to fire or not. Meanwhile, they'll be very pleased to fire ERMs. In fact, it's very likely that the Flight IV Reliants can fire ERMs (the Saganami-B could and they are contemporaneous), and can be retrofitted to fire Mk16 DDMs, which would make them a direct competitor to the Erewhonese/Mayan Defiant-class BC design. The GA may sell Mk16 DDM to "most preferred allies" (e.g., Torch, Erewhon and Maya, plus maybe some ex-SL systems), which would put those allies above everyone else who can only fire ERMs with similar ships, at least until someone else begins selling DDMs. Even then, the Mk16 will probably pack a bigger punch than the knock-off version.

And if this export version of the Reliant gets some more automation support, a navy out there may be able to replace 4 older BCs with 6 new Reliants for the same manpower and long-term operating costs other than ammunition, for example. That would make it a better product than the Defiants, so the GA shipbuilders could command a premium per unit.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In any case, the main advantages in the ships are not the ship designs themselves. It's:

• the increased automation;
• the beta-squared nodes providing far higher accelerations;
• the quantum baffles allowing for true MDMs;
• the micro-fusion and fission reactors;
• the miniaturised FTL transceivers.

Jonathan_S wrote:I'm failing to quickly come up with the quote about the full warships to carry beta-squared nodes (I thought it was the Saganami (A)s; but I'm not finding it).

Sorry, I think I mixed things there. The beta-squared nodes are still important because they allow for a practical LAC. The higher accelerations are actually possible because of the improved compensators, which was not in my list but should be. That's another tech that the GA will guard closely.

The beta squared nodes may actually be declassified soon-ish. It's in the GA's interest that everyone buy LACs for their own defence, because those can't be readily used for offence. They would need a CLAC and an escort task force, probably anchored on a battlecruiser, which is not something all navies will have. Whoever is projecting power also needs more ships staying home. And if their target has bought a couple hundred LACs and has a desron and some CLs to support their defence, a single CLAC's wing will not suffice. Plus, if the export versions of the LACs don't have the fission reactors, they won't have endurance to operate far from a base and won't have a BC-grade spinal graser.

Plus, given the sheer quantity in which LACs are being constructed, the secret will leak. LACs will be down for maintenance all over the GA systems, so all it takes is a corrupt hangar official allowing someone access to those ships in the middle of the night to take samples. Nodes will be damaged or wear out, so there will be a continuous supply of new parts being swapped in and older ones swapped out. Any of those may disappear along the chain, make their way to someone who will reverse engineer them.

tlb wrote:Where and when did the SLN, TTY and the Malign get samples of the quantum-baffles? I do not remember Erewhon turning anything over to anyone except Haven and the Maya Sector.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I'm not saying it was via Erewhon and Maya. In fact, those specifically kept the tech away from the SL, while giving just enough hints to keep the SL off their backs. Barregos and Roszak were very smart in this. So I am also assuming their opsec was fairly tight too. The MAlign did try to infiltrate them, though. So it's possible some things leaked.

No, I expect the MAlign to have acquired quantum baffles from other occasions. The RMN did expend missiles at several engagements during the war with the SL, and though most of the time they were the winners and thus were able to clean up after everything, it may not have always been the case. There may have been "off screen" engagements where the RMN had to withdraw.

No secret will remain a secret forever either. The MAlign had been trying to infiltrate the RMN for 10 T-years or more and we know they had agents in place, which were roped in with treecat-led interrogations. We know Haven had samples too, which is how Foraker was able to put their own true MDMs into production by Operation Thunderbolt, and we know the MAlign had agents in Haven too - even more than in Manticore. We know Haven leaked like a sieve prior to Theisman and Foraker, especially until they relocated the production to Bolthole. All the samples that the Pierre regime had acquired prior to the coup would have been far less secure. And until the deal with Erewhon, they were still working with SL companies.

Anyway, the point is that the RMN and the GA in general must assume the secret has already leaked and it's a matter of time until someone puts the R&D together. In fact, it's very likely it has already happened and that's what the MAN Ninurta missile will be.

I agree that secrets are eventually found out and the GA should always consider that. However, don't you think that the latest generation missiles will self-destruct when their power gets to the minimum needed to fire the warhead? Why would Manticore allow their spent missiles to be recovered by the enemy? Where in the war against the SLN, did the SLN hold the field after the battle (except when Byng totally destroyed the defenseless destroyers)?

So I do not understand why you stated positively that the SLN and TTY had the multi-drive technology. I believe that Haven did have samples because they made raids and captured ships from incompetent commanders; so they did have MDM's by War of Honor.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:But going back to my point: right now, everyone and their grandma are designing ships to fire DDMs and MDMs, whether they have those to fire or not. Meanwhile, they'll be very pleased to fire ERMs. In fact, it's very likely that the Flight IV Reliants can fire ERMs (the Saganami-B could and they are contemporaneous), and can be retrofitted to fire Mk16 DDMs, which would make them a direct competitor to the Erewhonese/Mayan Defiant-class BC design. The GA may sell Mk16 DDM to "most preferred allies" (e.g., Torch, Erewhon and Maya, plus maybe some ex-SL systems), which would put those allies above everyone else who can only fire ERMs with similar ships, at least until someone else begins selling DDMs. Even then, the Mk16 will probably pack a bigger punch than the knock-off version.

And if this export version of the Reliant gets some more automation support, a navy out there may be able to replace 4 older BCs with 6 new Reliants for the same manpower and long-term operating costs other than ammunition, for example. That would make it a better product than the Defiants, so the GA shipbuilders could command a premium per unit.

I agree (from the trimmed part of your quote) that the MAlign might well have cracked the secret of the baffle, and thus of true MDMs.

I'm not so sure that Haven cracked it from reverse engineering -- MDMs just weren't used much before the ceasefire. And the only time I can think of where they were yet Manticore didn't end up controlling the battlefield, was when they were used defensively just before Buttercup kicked off. Such as the attack where Isaiah MacKenzie and her companions (and their ghost rider decoys) were still hiding their capabilities and allowed themselves to be driven off without revealing that they were pod layers or that their missiles were MDMs. But in that case Haven wouldn't have known there was anything special about the missiles that would have warranted chasing them down for inspection -- though at least they'd be moving slowly enough to make it practical (assuming the self-destruct safeties failed and the missiles remained intact to capture. When used as MDMs it'd seem a fair bit trickier to run down a ballistic missile whose terminal velocity exceeds the max speed of any ship.

And it seems reverse engineering isn't the only way to crack the secret. The IAN wasn't in a position to capture any examples, but we know they were still able to build their own DDMs prior to the grand alliance. So Haven might also have cracked it without reverse engineering.


As for retrofitting flight IV Reliants to fire Mk16s. It'd be possible (they refitted a handful of Gryphons to fire Mk23s) but that's very much not a minor effort!!

Even if the flight IVs fire ERMs -- something the books haven't even hinted at -- a Mk14 is noticeably smaller than a Mk16 and is still capacitor powered. Swapping out the missile tubes for ones able to handle microfusion powered Mk16s requires finding room to install armored cofferdaming around them and seemingly requires different plasma flows to the launch to kickstart each missile's reactor. Plus due to the larger size of the missiles you've got to rework the magazines and the feed tubes moving the missiles from magazine to each launcher!

It might be less work to simply design a flight V Reliant that was DDM from the get-go.



And in a new flight, or clean-sheet export model design, it would be possible to build in the ability to be flexible and have launchers able to handle either Mk14 or Mk16. Though the larger launchers and the extra space all the microfusion support and protection takes on around the launcher means it'd be less capable when using ERMs than a ship of the same tonnable built to handle only ERMs. (Because AFAWK that flexibility isn't built into normal Mk16 tubes)

Also, if it's a new export-only flight/design, Manticore might not want to offer support for microfusion powered missiles. (Because they might not want to share that tech to anyone but their very closest allies) They might instead want to design a new export-only capacitor powered DDM. It'd need to be slightly bigger than a Mk16 (though IIRC a DDM right right around 'break even' on size between capacitors and microfusion; so the size different should be relatively minor) and wouldn't have as much power budget for ECM/jamming. OTOH it'd be more widely sharable, and the launchers wouldn't need all the extra cofferdaming that microfusion capable ones do -- so you should be able to get more throw weight from a given ship tonnage.

Jonathan_S wrote:I'm not so sure that Haven cracked it from reverse engineering -- MDMs just weren't used much before the ceasefire. And the only time I can think of where they were yet Manticore didn't end up controlling the battlefield, was when they were used defensively just before Buttercup kicked off. Such as the attack where Isaiah MacKenzie and her companions (and their ghost rider decoys) were still hiding their capabilities and allowed themselves to be driven off without revealing that they were pod layers or that their missiles were MDMs. But in that case Haven wouldn't have known there was anything special about the missiles that would have warranted chasing them down for inspection -- though at least they'd be moving slowly enough to make it practical (assuming the self-destruct safeties failed and the missiles remained intact to capture. When used as MDMs it'd seem a fair bit trickier to run down a ballistic missile whose terminal velocity exceeds the max speed of any ship.

And it seems reverse engineering isn't the only way to crack the secret. The IAN wasn't in a position to capture any examples, but we know they were still able to build their own DDMs prior to the grand alliance. So Haven might also have cracked it without reverse engineering.

The IAN also had other technology that was thought to be proprietary, such as the new compensator; so the Andies did have a successful espionage entry into Manticore. Which we hope that Haven did not have.

However, weren't there cases of Haven jumping on RMN ships with cold nodes during Ashes of Victory, where the multidrive missiles were first used? If so, that would allow reverse-engineering. We did hear later where Theisman acknowledged how they were hindered by the anti-tampering features in the various captured equipment.

PS: The penetration by the Malign, leading into and for most of the Manticore-Haven War, was aimed at political resources, rather than technological ones.

tlb wrote:I agree that secrets are eventually found out and the GA should always consider that. However, don't you think that the latest generation missiles will self-destruct when their power gets to the minimum needed to fire the warhead? Why would Manticore allow their spent missiles to be recovered by the enemy? Where in the war against the SLN, did the SLN hold the field after the battle (except when Byng totally destroyed the defenseless destroyers)?

The fail-safe may have failed. S**t happens. We know Haven did get them somehow, in spite of the same type of fail-safes existing. Though they did capture bases and other installations, where such things in un-fired and un-armed form may have been found.

So I do not understand why you stated positively that the SLN and TTY had the multi-drive technology. I believe that Haven did have samples because they made raids and captured ships from incompetent commanders; so they did have MDM's by War of Honor.

Industrial espionage. Even if they didn't get samples from battle debris, they may have sought those out through spies and black market. If you're not cheating, you're not trying hard enough.

And the MAlign too. The GA knows they had spies among their ranks and they know (though can't definitely prove) that TIY was getting a pipeline of information from the MAlign, like the Cataphracts.

We know that the MAlign didn't allow the Ninurta to be deployed in Galton, so Galton didn't have any of the plans. That probably means they've so far withheld this information from TIY too. But longer term, it's probably in the MAlign's interests to decrease the GA's advantage gap, even if it means it decreases the gap to them too.