Insanity: Screening elements in the HV

Theemile wrote:
The Scientist design is ~250 years old. I forget the number, but at least 1/3 of the ships in the in the reserve still have emag guns instead of PDLCs. The Vegas are... Newer... And more missile focused.

Aint the Vegas literally just a Scientist with a couple more missiles oon em?

Zendikarofthewest wrote:

Theemile wrote:
The Scientist design is ~250 years old. I forget the number, but at least 1/3 of the ships in the in the reserve still have emag guns instead of PDLCs. The Vegas are... Newer... And more missile focused.

Aint the Vegas literally just a Scientist with a couple more missiles oon em?

The books (specifically MoH) calls them "basically only repeat Scientists with a couple of additional missile tubes in each broadside"

But I'd take that "basically" to mean they aren't literally just the Scientist with a couple more missile tubes. They probably have some minor upgrades over a late model Scientist -- if nothing else it's hard to imagine even the Sollies stretching a design to mount a few more offensive tubes without commensurately scaling up its point defense.

And, kind of by definition, if they added a couple more missile tubes but not a couple more energy mounts the design is more missile focused. (Even if they still assume the energy mounts will be the final arbiters of any decisive battle)

penny wrote:Perhaps. Maybe. I understand your dissent. Basically it is hard to sell a single use purpose built warship; and for every one of these built is one less SD. True. But, for every one of these is one or more SDs that are not destroyed in enemy territory. The Peeps surprised Honor at Solon. The Peeps threw 11,000 missiles at her and she was shocked. And that was less than half of their capability.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Her two SD(P)s with their screen were very good at intercepting 11k missiles.

I should hope so! She went to defense plan "Hotel." Hotel literally pulled in its horns (essentially laying up inside a hotel effectively taking a break from engaging the enemy! Hiding? … More like Muhammad Ali’s rope-a -dope. Honor went to defensive mode only. A luxury she will not have at Darius if she is attacked with wedge based ships as well. The NAN”s launches are going to kill a couple of ships on each launch. But even if not, she won't be able to find a target! And she had better find a target fast. A worthwhile target. Not just some insignificant Ghost that decides to sacrifice itself for the MAN.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:And the only reason she couldn't do better was that she only had two SD(P)s.

Maybe. But she just might find herself with less than two at Darius after the MAN finishes with her if she can't survive the many many launches commensurate with what a dug in enemy can accomplish in its own HOME SYSTEM until she can localize the enemy.

SOLON WAS NOT A HOME SYSTEM.
I'm not sure it was even a major system!

And when you're away from Home behind enemy lines, missiles don't grow on trees. Neither do Colliers. Furthermore, Colliers are on the menu at Darius.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Now let's suppose that one of them was an SD(P)-CM and let's assume that it would have much improved their defences. She would still have lost at Solon because she wouldn't have had the offensive power.

She did not have the offensive power with the two that she had for a moment because the Peeps had fired so many missiles which caused Honor to hide inside of a "Hotel." A preplanned defense, formulated to deal with unanticipated huge launches … and because she was throwing good missiles after bad. The same nightmare will be created against an enemy that cannot be detected! But the launches will be much larger. More plentiful. More frequent. What do you think would have happened to Honor’s two SDs if several undetected gtorps would have been included within the mix of the many missiles that were launched; from all directions?

But your question is unfair and unreasonable. If you only have two ships you do not make one of them a CM warship. There must be some threshold when CM warships become acceptable to add to the mix.

The point… is that when you break into someone else's home, you better expect the kitchen sink to be thrown at you. And you'd better be prepared to duck, and you'd better be prepared to survive it.

SD(P)-CMs would be designed not just for carrying a lot of CMs but designed for dumping a lot of CMs quickly. If the GA is truly aware of the threat environment offered by the MAN then they would be well aware of the need to greatly increase CM capabilities. The GA is not aware of the new threat environment. Their posture of continuing to mimick sitting ducks proves it. And if the GA is working on extended range CMs then good for them. Darius will make them need them. But what sense are extended range CMs when you're already a boxer with a much longer reach against an opponent whose technology will allow it to get inside that reach. Effectively nullifying the GA’s missile range.

And even if the MAN does not increase its FTL range, its stealth will bring the fight inside their own FTL range.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:The problem is that either you have to trade off a regular SD(P) for a CM one, or you don't. If you have to trade off, I'm not sure it's a good trade-off. If you don't have to trade off because you can build a lot of ships anyway and you've had time, I don't see why you'd need a CM ship in the first place: if Honor had had a full squadron of regular SD(P)s at Solon (whether 6 or 8), she would have definitely won.

A very mean rich man visited a mountain resort one day and he saw a haggardly dressed poor man with a tattered old coat and laughed at him. "Ha ha ha! I have dozens of very nice coats back home. Don't you wish you had one?" But winter comes unexpectedly in the mountains. It got very very cold in the middle of the day. The poor man with the tattered old coat said to him. “What good are your nice coats now? Don't you wish you had this tattered old coat? You forgot to check the weather of the place you were planning to visit. You packed all of the wrong things."

What good are a million missiles if you are desperately shooting in the dark, in the blind, and in a hurry. I can't recall her name at the moment, but the same bait-n-hook was cast out to the SLN making them waste a lot of missiles on absolutely nothing.

Again, it is going to be hot as hell in Darius. The GA inappropriately dresses for the winter.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:This boils down to: is an SD(P)-CM cheaper to build and operate than a regular SD(P)? Are the logistics simplified?

Against the MAN and its technology, it does not come down to logistics. It comes down to survival. It is cheaper to protect the assets you bring with you, the assets that you pack with you on this vacation. Besides, the entire galaxy is now enjoying a time of peace. The GA has plenty of SDs now. What they need is a way to ensure a chance to get to use them. Apparently Shannon and Sonja – the Shewolves of the SS – are aware of the need to be able to survive against insanely huge launches since they are working on extended range CMs.

Again, which shows that they are completely oblivious to the new threat environment because extended range CMs are completely useless against a boxer that can get inside your reach.

penny wrote:What kind of numbers do you think the MAN will put up when they roll out the red carpet?

Thinksmarkedly wrote:What makes you think they will have the necessary fire control for a massive number of missiles? The technology seen at Galton was the pinnacle of their conventional military technology (minus the Ninurta, but that one was probably not in production in the first place). The numbers that they threw at the Grand Fleet were woefully insufficient and I don't think they had fire control for them all.

Oh ye of lots of arrogance and little faith. Michelle and Honor did not think the Peeps had the fire control either. But what makes you think they did not hide the fire control. If they had it, do you think they would have shown it?

Their smaller spider drive ships can be repurposed as moving fire control vessels complete with stealth as well. Ghosts, ectoplasmic apparitions, always did have an unnatural way of communicating.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:No, I take that back: they had no fire control at all, because Galton did not and the MAlign still does not have FTL control links. At 10 light-minutes action, there's no lightspeed control.

Again. Tactics and strategy takes on a whole new paradigm against this foe. Because of their unprecedented stealth, MAN launches will come from much shorter ranges, says the Spiders to the flies who come in much much closer to undetected platforms, mines, shoals of pods, and Spiders lying in wait.

A lot of the GA are going to die at Darius. Ships and personnel alike. If they are as arrogant and haphazard as many of you posters seem to be, they will die in job lots.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:I've said this before and I'll repeat here: the MAlign cannot win by using the strategy that the RMN and the Grand Alliance are the masters of.

And vice versa! But I think those Alphas already know that! Hence, their completely unprecedented tech! The GA can't hit what the GA can't see.

I keep telling y'all that they won't be using the strategy the GA uses! Their technology demands of them and offers them unprecedented tactics and strategy across the board. Have you seen anything approaching conventional strategy or tactics from the MA since their arrival?

Thinksmarkedly wrote:The MAN can only hope to be second best, after all the navies inside the Alliance. No, they need to fight differently, using strategies that the Alliance is unprepared for, using technology that the Alliance does not know about.

Well, at least you've got part of the memo. What do you think the MA has been doing since they were introduced?

Hope to be second best you say??? How does that saying go? It isn't the second place team that you need to worry about. You've battled him aplenty. It is that last place team you need to worry about because you don't have a single solitary clue as to what he is going to do. Ditto. The MAlign. Plus! They are number one in the game they play. Namely [b]stealth subterfuge and sucker punch.

Your notion should read as. The GA can not hope to win in an enemy system against technology they barely know anything about against tactics and strategy – they haven't even dreamed of or is even aware of – that only the enemy’s particular tech offers to the MAN. They'll figure it out after a few skirmishes. But the first attack on Darius will have them running home with their tails on fire. If they have any tails left. The GA is simply not ready to go skipping into Darius… Skipper!

penny wrote:I'm not saying CM warships have to be built in enormous numbers. Heck, they could simply be used in Grand Fleet when Grand Fleet makes a call in enemy systems.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:And why would the Grand Fleet need them? The Grand Fleet has a core of 250 SD(P)s and 100 CLACs, so they'll have 1200 LACs to provide forward missile defence, and some 600 lighter units from destroyers to battlecruisers, for the inner defence.

Complacence will kill the cat too. Arrogance will always kill. Ask the Silly Sollies.


Yep. The GA always packs a lot of the same luggage. Only problem is when vacationing in Darius they'll need clothing to keep it cool (until the enemy can be localized) because this system is going to make it hot as hell!!!

OOPS. THERE GOES THOSE INSANE SALVOS.
OOPS. FLIGHT PROFILE SUGGESTS CONTROL LINKS. Like @ Solon.
OOPS. THEY HAVE ALSO IMPROVED THEIR FTL.
OOPS. LET ME INTRODUCE YOU TO THE BIGASS SPIDERS.

What arrogance would make a man hyper into a system uninvited against another MAN wielding technology you know absolutely nothing about. Prudence always dictated not to attack a MAN in his own home and underestimate his weaponry and defense plan.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:In the two engagements that the GF lost ships, the losses were not due to the massive number of incoming missiles, but to the lateness in which they were detected.

Both of the issues will be reproduced with fervor in Darius. Launch after launch after launch. With the added problem of g-torps mixed in.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:In any case, how many were you thinking of adding to the GF? If it's just 10, their contribution would be pitiful. If it's something like 50 to 100, it's a reasonably big investment in capital and resources to have a ship that is barely used, and will probably mean you can't have 250 SD(P)s in the GF.

As many as needed. The GA’s current investment in hardware and SDs is already high. Add to that the experience of the officers that could be lost in the Darius System as well, means quite a lot is already laying on the line.

penny wrote:The logic of having as many offensive platforms available to reduce the number of enemy ships shooting back at you is prudent . . . against wedge based ships that you can see. Against the MAN, a completely different approach is needed. You can't shoot back at an enemy you cannot see. I cannot stress it enough, the conventional book of tactics will be thrown out the airlock.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:You can shoot at the dark and hope to hit something.

You can pray as well. But if your survival depends on hope and prayer, then take it from a Christian. For this trip, you should definitely pack a lot of prayer in lieu of the hope.

Thinksmsrkedly wrote:How does more defence help in this case anyway? There won't be 300 spider ships lurking around undetected and within 30 million km of a Grand Fleet formation, ready to fire 300,000 missiles (somehow 1000 missiles per ship, thus from pods). First, the MAN won't have that many capital ships; second, you can't get that many capital ships within this range without risking an accidental detection; third, deploying pods to fire that many missiles increases the chance of detection.

That's a whole lotta assumptions without the MAN's playbook, technical specs or inventory. Once upon a time, many people here didn't think they'd develop FTL. Some people do not think they will break the secret of the mini power plant. Sounds like sick-solly-disease to me.

And although their FTL is short ranged, their stealth allows them to attack from much shorter ranges. From the beginning of warfare, the common strategy of all navies is to figure out some way to get their firepower close enough to the enemy. I know you and I argue about how close the spiders can get. But OTOH you agree that the LDs and other spider technologies are ambush predators, like father like sub. Ambush predators, like arachnids, have a tendency to get close to their prey. What's worse, they set up a web in space and let some unwittingly fly bring them food. I said it once and I'll keep saying it until I'm proved wrong . . .

It makes no sense for the MAN not to develop shorter-ranged insanely high-acceleration missiles that shoot their wad quickly. Technology that complements their tactics and abilities. Their high acceleration CMs is a foreboding of that. When they unveiled them at Galton, my brain went… “uh oh.”

At any rate. You still don't think LDs can get close to the fleet? (Or close enough for government work?) You should hedge that bet to protect your losses. I still think they can. They may not want to risk it, and it might be irresponsible to risk it since nobody since the dawn of time has been able to detect that meddling demon Murphy. But the right Captain can. The one who “can sneak up on a skunk and steal his stink.” Anyway, Stealthy platforms can be massaged into place instead, similar to what was done against the SLN. This is a home system that knows the GA will be coming to dinner. Guess who's going to be on the table? The GA.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:If the ships are detected, not only is the surprise gone, the tables turn: the GF will be able to fire 100,000 missiles at those ships, which have no wedges and no screening fleet, and their missiles are far, far more accurate.

GA missiles are far more accurate? Where do you get that spec sheet? They are accurate, yes. But they're accurate against wedge based targets that they have locked up. Locked up because they can see. Simply detecting something is a far cry from locking that something up. And who says the MAN won't have its own hellish ECM? In fact, there's a chance that the MAN’s ECM will perform better. Think about it. GA ECM tries to confound and trick missiles from hitting a very bright target like the wedge. If the MAN’s ECM is even close to the GAs, then trying to confound missiles from hitting an already difficult target to see should be orders of magnitude easier and orders of magnitude more effective. You guys better get off of the made in Manticore mantra. But quickly!

Thinksmarkedly wrote:That strategy would be extremely risky: moderate rewards for extremely high risk. The MAN could lose all of its 300 capital ships for no kills at all.

And the Wizard of Oz COULD come calling too.

penny wrote:Almost inevitably the GA can count on the MAN getting in the first launch fleet to fleet. Against the MAN at Darius, the GA must survive that first launch, and subsequent launches. The GA will have to buy itself time to localize / find this enemy.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:I don't agree, see above. Now, the GF cannot count on that, they need to be prepared for being fired at first. Which is why they should arrive at an unpredictable location, so the chance that there are pods nearby is low. The MAN does not have FTL control links, so missiles from very far away are not accurate. In any case, missiles from very far away are tracked for a very long time, sufficiently long to go back into hyper too.

Is that going to be a misnomer or fact in Darius? A lot of tech was withheld from Galton. Just as the RMN did to the Peeps and the galaxy at large (SLN) time and time again, how are you so certain the MAN didn't hold back its capabilities? Wait. We know for a fact that they did withhold capabilities. Besides it should be a simple solution to extend their FTL range by deploying a series of their limited range stealthy FTL platforms throughout the system. Platform to platform FTL communications like the old pony Express.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:So long as they stay out of the hyperlimit, the number of missiles that the MAN can fire is irrelevant.

Another big assumption.

If the GA lollygags outside the hyperlimit like at Galton their goose will be cooked.
The GA will pack a lot of missiles on the trip to Darius. No doubt. But they will lose their luggage. Bye-bye colliers. And if you think that Darius is going to give the GA the luxury of wasting missiles on a hunch … please! The galaxy is huge. Who knows what space oddities Darius will have. And shooting at empty space is a really bad act of desperation.

Just like at Vietnam, the GA is going to have to cross the hyperlimit. Ghostrider drones will be eaten. Galton barely had any of those high speed CMs. But even if it was handled differently and Galton was given a large allotment of their ingenious CMs but do you think their numbers would even approach the numbers the GA will see at Darius? Seeded throughout the system like mines. Think system defense missiles and system defense CMs.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:A spider-pushed missile pod (that is, a spider version of the Hasta) would be far more problematic for the same reasons that the Hasta were at Galton. That's why I have been advocating a battle in motion.

I am not disagreeing here. But the MA was simply testing their technology at Galton. We do not know how the Hasta would actually be used tactically. If they are launched in the midst of wedge based missiles and other attacks, they will be hard to detect. And that stands even if they have not been improved.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:Further, the CM SD(P) does not help against spider torpedoes.

What? Hopefully the g-torp will be spotted, just not in time to save everyone. But if a CM ship is there, it can flood the area with CMs in the direction of escape! Even if it isn't detected by sensors, it'll be detected by flaming datum! (Where's kzt when I need him!)

Thinksmarkedly, you're the main proponent pushing firing into the dark hoping to hit something. But you abandon that desperate tactic when it comes to CMs? That is when you fire into the dark. The area close to your ships is a much smaller blind area to cover, in the direction responsible for your flaming datum.

Thinksmarkedly wrote:And finally, none of this explains why a dedicated ship is required. If the GA has CM pods, why not load them into regular SD(P)s as part of the loading mix? If the CM SD(P) has enough control links on its surface, why wouldn't a regular SD(P)?

Oh! I knew I forgot something. I need to reread the battle at Solon, I couldhave sworn control links are shared between missiles and CMs. At any rate, unlike regular ships, all of the tubes on a CM SD(P) are available for CMs. CMs are smaller, and a CM ship should be able to kick them out faster. And a CM warship should be less vulnerable to enemy fire because it is shitting out CMs at an alarming rate; which should also make it less susceptible to proximity kills.

One of the things responsible for me advocating CM warships is the limitation of missile tubes being able to fire CMs? Am I wrong about that?

I agree. It would be ironic for a CM ship to be destroyed by a missile. But it won't happen. Anyway, if you want to protect your very valuable Admiral, wrap her up in a cocoon of CM warships. “Get those CM ships in closer!”
.

penny wrote:
SOLON WAS NOT A HOME SYSTEM.
I'm not sure it was even a major system!

And when you're away from Home behind enemy lines, missiles don't grow on trees. Neither do Colliers. Furthermore, Colliers are on the menu at Darius.

It wasn't. It was just a large populous politically important system. Oh, and importantly one the Peep decided to turn into a trap by shipping in many more missile pods (many in the minelayers), installing the brand new Moriarty system to control them, and sending a non-trivial portion of their modern wall (at least 18).

It likely still wouldn't have had the defenses of, say, Haven itself -- but it was at least temporarily turned into one of the most heavily defended systems Haven had -- scaled to utterly overwhelm Honor's fleet that had been raiding Republic systems. Or so the Peeps thought; until the two RMN SD(P)S held off the wallers and then weathered the Moriarty controlled tsunami of missile pods [admittedly for he loss of one of those SD(P)s; and if the damaged Intolerant hadn't ended up attracting a disproportionate percentage of that salvo both SD(P)s likely would have been lost]

penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, you're the main proponent pushing firing into the dark hoping to hit something. But you abandon that desperate tactic when it comes to CMs? That is when you fire into the dark. The area close to your ships is a much smaller blind area to cover, in the direction responsible for your flaming datum.

I have no desire to debate the value of a CM pod ship. We know that in the past the author has stated that Manticore does not like single use ships and in apparent peace time they have less value. But the times are changing and the author might change things up also.

However I am draw to say that firing CM's or missiles blindly into space is a very uneconomical way to defend against a spider drive ship. Much better is to use recon drones (since any wedge would kill a spider), because an RD has much greater endurance and is recoverable and reusable. A shell of drones expanding outward also has the best chance of locating a spider drive ship, since its excess heat has to be vented somewhere. That is how the Ghost in the Yeltsin System was afraid that it would be seen.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:Thinksmarkedly, you're the main proponent pushing firing into the dark hoping to hit something. But you abandon that desperate tactic when it comes to CMs? That is when you fire into the dark. The area close to your ships is a much smaller blind area to cover, in the direction responsible for your flaming datum.

I have no desire to debate the value of a CM pod ship. We know that in the past the author has stated that Manticore does not like single use ships and in apparent peace time they have less value. But the times are changing and the author might change things up also.

However I am draw to say that firing CM's or missiles blindly into space is a very uneconomical way to defend against a spider drive ship. Much better is to use recon drones (since any wedge would kill a spider), because an RD has much greater endurance and is recoverable and reusable. A shell of drones expanding outward also has the best chance of locating a spider drive ship, since its excess heat has to be vented somewhere. That is how the Ghost in the Yeltsin System was afraid that it would be seen.

Plus the RD has far better sensors, so is more likely to see a nearby Spider ship compared to the notably myopic missiles or CMs and so more likely to scream past without noticing.

Blind speed isn't very useful against a target that's very hard to see.

The problem is that RDs are going to be eaten for lunch. If the RDs lower their accel in order to better sample the huge expanse of space, then they are more susceptible to being eaten. If they move too quickly they will certainly not detect the enemy. And they will need to cut their accel by a lot if they hope to get a sniff of spider ships.

Which brings us back to their dillema. What now, since the enemy has not been detected by your RDs? Plus, RDs don't grow on trees either.

BTW, even if an RD detects an enemy presence before it is destroyed, how does that help the Fleet to localize the enemy for fire? The GA does not know the accel of the LDs. Even if they did know, the GA could blindfire every damn missile in its arsenal and still not hit the broad side of a barn.

penny wrote:I should hope so! She went to defense plan "Hotel." Hotel literally pulled in its horns (essentially laying up inside a hotel effectively taking a break from engaging the enemy! Hiding? …

Or it was just plan #8 in list of what had been discussed and pre-planned. Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot, Golf, Hotel. It also need not mean that the previous 7 plans failed; only that they didn't apply, for some reason or another. That is, there's no reason to believe this was the GOTH plan.

Or, if we want to take meaning from the word "Hotel," it could mean she was checked out and sipping margaritas at a beach hotel because this did not bother her in the least.

A luxury she will not have at Darius if she is attacked with wedge based ships as well. The NAN”s launches are going to kill a couple of ships on each launch. But even if not, she won't be able to find a target! And she had better find a target fast. A worthwhile target. Not just some insignificant Ghost that decides to sacrifice itself for the MAN.

Contradiction there: if the MAN is using wedge ships, then Honor can see targets, from a light-hour away, and hit them with precision from half that distance. Any wedge-based warship would be taken off the board in the first hour of fighting, like they were at Galton: they just sat there in orbit of the planet or in dock because trying to sortie would mean death.

You said "worthwhile" and thus you may be trying to say those aren't worthwhile targets. Like what happened at Galton. But then, what happened at Galton also applies: what makes them not-worthwhile targets is because they aren't threats in the first place. Therefore, their presence in the skies is completely irrelevant too.

Maybe. But she just might find herself with less than two at Darius after the MAN finishes with her if she can't survive the many many launches commensurate with what a dug in enemy can accomplish in its own HOME SYSTEM until she can localize the enemy.

Well, yeah, if at the end of a battle you're down to a single capital ship (and assuming you started with much more than that), then you should withdraw as quickly as you can. You've lost.

And when you're away from Home behind enemy lines, missiles don't grow on trees. Neither do Colliers. Furthermore, Colliers are on the menu at Darius.

Indeed but so are their production sites. If Honor destroys those even at a cost of a million of her missiles and 20000 recon drones, and then withdraws, it's a technical win. The MAN won't be able to replace those in a hurry, while the GA production facilities are untouched. She can come back in a few months.

That was the conclusion Lisa's analysis came to.

Also, she's not "behind enemy lines."

She did not have the offensive power with the two that she had for a moment because the Peeps had fired so many missiles which caused Honor to hide inside of a "Hotel." A preplanned defense, formulated to deal with unanticipated huge launches … and because she was throwing good missiles after bad. The same nightmare will be created against an enemy that cannot be detected! But the launches will be much larger. More plentiful. More frequent. What do you think would have happened to Honor’s two SDs if several undetected gtorps would have been included within the mix of the many missiles that were launched; from all directions?

There's no way they're attacking Darius with just two capital ships. They attacked Galton with 250 SD(P)s plus 100 CLACs. The 2-SD scenario in unrealistic for Darius.

But your question is unfair and unreasonable. If you only have two ships you do not make one of them a CM warship. There must be some threshold when CM warships become acceptable to add to the mix.

Agreed: an SDCM(P) would be unrealistic at anything less than 15 other SD(P)s to be protecting. We're just discussing Solon because it was brought up as a situation in which the SDCM could have turned the tides: and no, it couldn't have.

The point… is that when you break into someone else's home, you better expect the kitchen sink to be thrown at you. And you'd better be prepared to duck, and you'd better be prepared to survive it.

Yes, agreed.

SD(P)-CMs would be designed not just for carrying a lot of CMs but designed for dumping a lot of CMs quickly. If the GA is truly aware of the threat environment offered by the MAN then they would be well aware of the need to greatly increase CM capabilities. The GA is not aware of the new threat environment. Their posture of continuing to mimick sitting ducks proves it. And if the GA is working on extended range CMs then good for them. Darius will make them need them. But what sense are extended range CMs when you're already a boxer with a much longer reach against an opponent whose technology will allow it to get inside that reach. Effectively nullifying the GA’s missile range.

There's a better way against a massive launch and it is to stay outside of the hyperlimit. Honor did that at Sol in the engagement against Ganymede, and she did that at Galton too.

I do agree on increasing CM capabilities. I don't think anyone is denying that. What we're arguing is a capital ship dedicated only to defence. It's inflexible and moreover there are better solutions to the same problem that don't involve unique designs and single-points-of-failure.

I also agree that if the MAN can launch gtorps that won't be visible until they're in energy range, increased range CMs won't help. But that's because no CM will help: if the torpedoes can fire grasers at your ship, your first warning that it is happening is the packet of gamma-ray photons arriving at your ship. It's too late for any kind of CM, regardless of which ship is launching it.

What good are a million missiles if you are desperately shooting in the dark, in the blind, and in a hurry. I can't recall her name at the moment, but the same bait-n-hook was cast out to the SLN making them waste a lot of missiles on absolutely nothing.

Again, it is going to be hot as hell in Darius. The GA inappropriately dresses for the winter.

I don't disagree in principle. The GA will definitely need tools to detect those spider ships and torpedoes, something they don't have yet.

But saying "you didn't plan well" does not imply a different plan was the correct one. The fact was that 2 SD(P)s had been sufficient against all targets up until Solon. It worked until it didn't. Using one SD(P) and one SDCM(P) wouldn't have worked at Solon and might not have worked in previous engagements either.

Moreover, my argument was that the Alliance was limited by its production rate of available SD(P)s. If they had had the flexibility and time to build SDCM(P), they would have instead built more SD(P) and doubling Honor's forces at Solon would have tipped the scales to her. There was no need in any battle so far to replace some SD(P) with SDCM(P) because there was nothing that those could have done to make a difference. The closest would be the battles of Manticore: if either Home or Third Fleet had had more defensive firepower, they might have lasted longer. But don't you think Tourville or Chin wouldn't have known about those ships that are disproportionately contributing to the defence and targeted them first? The only think that would have ranked higher would have been Alastair's squadron that was firing Apollo missiles and thus killing Chin's own SD(P)s faster than she was destroying Third Fleet's.

Oh ye of lots of arrogance and little faith. Michelle and Honor did not think the Peeps had the fire control either. But what makes you think they did not hide the fire control. If they had it, do you think they would have shown it?

That's why I said "was probably the pinnacle of the MAlign's conventional technology." I am guessing it was because there was very little conventional that Lisa was denied using, and because most of what was conventional was produced at Galton in the first place. They had been the innovators for a long time and were the ones still producing the technology.

Again. Tactics and strategy takes on a whole new paradigm against this foe. Because of their unprecedented stealth, MAN launches will come from much shorter ranges, says the Spiders to the flies who come in much much closer to undetected platforms, mines, shoals of pods, and Spiders lying in wait.

Hence my suggestion of a battle in motion: the GF shouldn't stand still and let the stealthed enemy concentrate their forces for a close-range assault. The GF has the acceleration advantage: use it.

I keep telling y'all that they won't be using the strategy the GA uses! Their technology demands of them and offers them unprecedented tactics and strategy across the board. Have you seen anything approaching conventional strategy or tactics from the MA since their arrival?

You say that, and I believe you're right they won't. But almost every time you elaborate on the tactics you expect they will use, it boils down to the ones that the GA are already masters of. Overwhelming in numbers won't work against the GA because the GA is expecting that and has been burned by it.

Closing the range and firing energy weapons would be different, but as I said above, that is not something CMs could help with.

Your notion should read as. The GA can not hope to win in an enemy system against technology they barely know anything about against tactics and strategy – they haven't even dreamed of or is even aware of – that only the enemy’s particular tech offers to the MAN. They'll figure it out after a few skirmishes. But the first attack on Darius will have them running home with their tails on fire. If they have any tails left. The GA is simply not ready to go skipping into Darius… Skipper!

Why do you think the first attack will be in Darius? You've just said "they'll figure out after a few skirmishes," so what will those skirmishes be? By extension, the GA will have learnt about some of the tactics the MAN will be employing.

If however they drop in Darius completely unexpectedly, the MAlign has lost. The GF will have advantage of surprise and initiative. They can blow up the shipyards around Darius Prime without threatening Darius Gamma. They can launch several hundred thousand missiles before spider ships can change vector to bear on the GF.

I don't completely agree with Honor's tactics at Galton. We've discussed how she was acting as if stealth ships didn't exist. The GF did get plenty of scans of the Galton system before dropping in for a visit. She came with what she and the planners thought was overkill. But even if she had been wrong, as Lisa's analysis showed, someone else would have come back and finished the job. The same applies to Darius: if it's discovered, it's lost.

It's just a matter of how many battles and how many people die.

What arrogance would make a man hyper into a system uninvited against another MAN wielding technology you know absolutely nothing about. Prudence always dictated not to attack a MAN in his own home and underestimate his weaponry and defense plan.

And yet strategic planning says to destroy the enemy's supply lines and infrastructure. If they can't make war, they lose.

If you're unsure of what the enemy has, do recce in force and be ready to beat the retreat.

And besides, what of those skirmishes you mentioned?

And do we think the final battle at Darius will happen before the GA has developed a spider detector, however crude it might be?

As many as needed. The GA’s current investment in hardware and SDs is already high. Add to that the experience of the officers that could be lost in the Darius System as well, means quite a lot is already laying on the line.

But you didn't answer the question. Say you're the First Lord of the Admiralty in consultation with the First and Third Space lords: what is the recommendation? Given you're the one talking about how the GA doesn't know what tech the MAN will have, how will they base their decisions?

Given an enemy with unknown capabilities, why would you go for anything but the most flexible design? As I've said above, CMs and SDCM(P)s are useless against graser torpedoes. So why would the GA think they're fighting a spider version of the Hasta they've never seen instead of the graser torpedo they've already seen?

You can pray as well. But if your survival depends on hope and prayer, then take it from a Christian. For this trip, you should definitely pack a lot of prayer in lieu of the hope.

If you can't fire back and you can't localise the enemy, retreat. Why would they stay and keep taking on losses.

Then come back 27.1 hours later, repeat the attack, retreat. Rinse and repeat after random hours. A few of those attacks on Darius and all the infrastructure is gone. The MAN personnel, genetically enhanced as they may be, will have been on edge for a week or two while they remained at high alert.

Take a page from your playbook: keep hypering in and out of the system at random locations too, to check on what has changed. And to receive telemetry from the network of Ghost Riders that were seeded in the system.

It makes no sense for the MAN not to develop shorter-ranged insanely high-acceleration missiles that shoot their wad quickly. Technology that complements their tactics and abilities. Their high acceleration CMs is a foreboding of that. When they unveiled them at Galton, my brain went… “uh oh.”

I agree it would make sense for them to research and develop that. Whether that can be done in the rules of the Honorverse, I don't know. I've said before that if anyone could crack wedge technology, it should be the GA.

The streak drive is brute force, thus large. If the MAN developed such a missile, it would probably big too. And if it's big, there's no way to bring sufficiently many of them within a light-second or two without detection to overwhelm the defences of 250 SD(P)s. Having 50 SDCM(P) would not help much there, especially as CMs are designed for taking out shipkillers at range. From 1 light-second, the SD(P)s would be using their PDLCs, not CMs.

And if the MAN can bring that many spider vehicles within this range, those had better be equipped with grasers, not missiles.

At any rate. You still don't think LDs can get close to the fleet? (Or close enough for government work?) You should hedge that bet to protect your losses. I still think they can. They may not want to risk it, and it might be irresponsible to risk it since nobody since the dawn of time has been able to detect that meddling demon Murphy. But the right Captain can. The one who “can sneak up on a skunk and steal his stink.” Anyway, Stealthy platforms can be massaged into place instead, similar to what was done against the SLN. This is a home system that knows the GA will be coming to dinner. Guess who's going to be on the table? The GA.

One skilled captain doing it with a ship or a ship and its division mate is not something I'd be surprised with. But two LDs can't deal with 250 SD(P)s, so they can't turn the tide. Being generous, I'd give them 20 kills before being completely blasted to free-floating ions. That might take the mission commander, but that's unlikely because this Captain would not push their luck trying to go for the flagship when that increases the risk of detection and thus dying without causing any damage at all. And even if it does, that wouldn't cripple the GF.

So it would be a sad loss if Honor died. But that doesn't change the tide of the battle, much less the war. Or it does: the GF is energised to avenge her and this stunt has given the GF a lot of sensor readings to analyse once they know what those returns were.

I do not see getting a large number of LDs into this range. The chance of accidental detection is too high and not all captains will be good enough to pull it off.

And who says the MAN won't have its own hellish ECM? In fact, there's a chance that the MAN’s ECM will perform better. Think about it. GA ECM tries to confound and trick missiles from hitting a very bright target like the wedge. If the MAN’s ECM is even close to the GAs, then trying to confound missiles from hitting an already difficult target to see should be orders of magnitude easier and orders of magnitude more effective. You guys better get off of the made in Manticore mantra. But quickly!

The problem is that un-wedged ships cannot take a single hit. That means the ECM has to be better than 99.99% good, at 300 ships to 100,000 missiles, losing only 10 of them. If it's only 99.85% good, then the MAN has lost 150 ships. At 99.9%, it would take less than 5 massed salvoes to destroy those spider ships.

And those spider ships can't keep firing missiles, because each new missile volley they fire is another datum in locating the ship. And as tlb and Jonathan said above, the GF can simply ram Ghost Riders on the LDs. And remember the LD can't shoot through the GR's wedge, so it would need to fire its own wedge-based CMs... which are highly visible to the Mk23 missiles.

This is what I said above: a missile duel is something the GA excels at. It's not something the MAN should be trying to do. It should turn the tables and go for energy range with stealth torpedoes.

Is that going to be a misnomer or fact in Darius? A lot of tech was withheld from Galton. Just as the RMN did to the Peeps and the galaxy at large (SLN) time and time again, how are you so certain the MAN didn't hold back its capabilities? Wait. We know for a fact that they did withhold capabilities. Besides it should be a simple solution to extend their FTL range by deploying a series of their limited range stealthy FTL platforms throughout the system. Platform to platform FTL communications like the old pony Express.

See above. We have good idea of what was held back and what wasn't.

However, given time, the MAN could have a technological breakthrough. So I would accept that the MAN could be firing their Apollo-like missiles when the GF comes calling. But with a 20-minute flight time, the GF has time to hyper out, after making an alpha launch at the shipyards. Then the strategy from above: reappear at random times, at random positions along the hyperlimit (in 3D!) and fire at any weapon that unmasks itself.

I am not disagreeing here. But the MA was simply testing their technology at Galton. We do not know how the Hasta would actually be used tactically. If they are launched in the midst of wedge based missiles and other attacks, they will be hard to detect. And that stands even if they have not been improved.

That's exactly what the SLN did in the Battle of Beowulf.

What? Hopefully the g-torp will be spotted, just not in time to save everyone. But if a CM ship is there, it can flood the area with CMs in the direction of escape! Even if it isn't detected by sensors, it'll be detected by flaming datum! (Where's kzt when I need him!)

That doesn't make sense. Let's look at the decision tree: if the g-torp isn't detected and instead fires first, the ship it targeted is destroyed or severely crippled (assuming it didn't shoot at the wedge, but it would have had a choice of which ship to shoot at). Firing a brace of CMs in the direction this CM came from won't help hitting the other g-torps that are likewise not detected. Maybe it could, but that's my strategy of shooting in the dark and I don't see how having a SDCM(P) would help in being better at it.

If the g-torp is detected from inside the energy range, the GF won't waste time shooting a CM at it, which will take 15 seconds to get to the torpedo and give away that it has been detected. No, the GF will instead shoot using its own graser mounts or even PDLCs. That way, the torpedo won't know it's been detected. That might tip off its brethren that they need to fire because their stealth is compromised, but that means hasting to action and thus target acquisition will be less than optimal.

If the GF doesn't want to tip away it's found the torpedo, it would vector a closer ship in the screen or a LAC. Or a GR, which the torpedo might not be seeing. It wouldn't fire a CM, much less several hundred of them.

If the GF is sitting idle, like they were at Galton, the threat could be coming from multiple vectors. If instead as I am advocating it is in motion, then there's reasonably only one vector from which a brace of torpedoes could be coming at any point in time. So in addition to the tactics above, the GF can use its acceleration to change position, in such a way we know and will have become apparent at this time that the torpedoes can't match.

Thinksmarkedly, you're the main proponent pushing firing into the dark hoping to hit something. But you abandon that desperate tactic when it comes to CMs? That is when you fire into the dark. The area close to your ships is a much smaller blind area to cover, in the direction responsible for your flaming datum.

As above: I'm not against firing in the dark. I just don't think SDCM(P) would help with that, if the need arises. See above for CMs on torpedoes. For CMs on LDs, numbers would help (brute force and all), but I would still rather have one SD(P) instead for each of the SDCM(P) that went with the fleet. I would much rather be able to fire Apollo Mk23 at a range much longer than CMs can have, and those are much smarter than CMs.

One of the things responsible for me advocating CM warships is the limitation of missile tubes being able to fire CMs? Am I wrong about that?

Yes. One can fit 4 CMs into a sabot and fire them from a shipkiller tube.

And besides, the Manticore-built Invictus-class has no shipkiller missile tubes. It only has grasers, PDLCs, and CM tubes. The only way it can fire shipkillers is from the pod bay doors. So an Invictus-class is already firing CMs from tubes as fast as can be possibly done with the current technology. The only way it could fire more would be to fire them from pods. And then what I asked: why would you dedicate an entire ship of this, let alone a full ship class, instead of just dedicating one of the six rails for CM pods?

The Graysons disagree with this design. Their Harrington II design has missile tubes on the broadside, which they use to seed different quantities of penaids and ECM into the salvoes.

I agree. It would be ironic for a CM ship to be destroyed by a missile. But it won't happen. Anyway, if you want to protect your very valuable Admiral, wrap her up in a cocoon of CM warships. “Get those CM ships in closer!”
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Placing the flagship in the centre or tail of a formation is a painting a target "fire here." The flagship should not be obvious in the formation, either from positioning or from analysis of the command network.

We and the RMN (plus those who went to Galton with the GA) has been shown what was in the books minus things like Gail's thoughts on not being able to use various Alignment weapons etc at Galton. Same goes for what was used for Oyster Bay minus what we readers were given by conversations between various Alphas and the background inserted with those conversation.
Same thing with the Silver Bullets at Beowulf.....we got a lot of detail, RMN and Beowulf observed a new weapons variations either handed (under stealth to SLN) or deployed directly by the Alignment though the use of covert operatives.

Alexander gave a very interesting interpretation of what RMN saw happen with Oyster Bay and by now it is also clear that there is still a lot the GA and SLN have no idea about but they know that some odd things are out there. We just have not been told almost anything about what the RMN (and various pieces of the GA or places like Erwhon) "know" or suspect about the Alighment's capabilities. Also not what BoltHole might or might not be working on based on what information RMN gathered anywhere or has been shared by others.

The Alignment is clearly shown to favor Asymetrical Warfare in everything they do.
It usually uses ambush attacks even using things like the G-torps coupled with stealth packages of primarily tradiational weapons on ballistic trajectory to hit in surprise attacks.
It uses a wide variety of essentials contract labor or useful political relationships to act as its cat's paws in almost any overt use of force. Bing & Crandall (with the obvious massive and pervasive corruption in the SLN and much of SL politics.
It loves to plant nuclear weapons covertly in in space stations including ones that are primarily residential stations rather than all or partly military facilities.
It is truly cold blooded in killing off it's many of it's own people to protect itself, lay false trails or getting blame places on 3rd parties.

The Alignment is also not hermetically sealed in reguard to its teck. Information is know-in some of the right places- about the Streak Drive. We are being shown cracks starting among the True Believes as far as what is going on.....like blowing up the Game Center research complex on Mesa and wihpeing out a lot of critical intelligence files etc when the head of security decides that he everything he knows and believed in about the Alignment is wrong and evil, and he needs to help the two agents get away at the cost of his own life. Like Gail and her partner getting getting invited to take an intimate getaway with some other people who have some perhaps divergent thinking on the Alignment and its long term plans.

But mostly we have NOT been given any hint of what at least the RMN and Beowulf and GA in general are thinking about the probable capabilities the Alignment and ways to counter the threats they have seen and what has been done. We don't know. We can't really guess because we are missing a lot of information. What we can guess is the Alignment will kill or cause to be killed a lot more people - in the range of more than tens of millions - in order to continue to survive and be the puppet masters of all the "Normals" of the human race.

penny wrote:The problem is that RDs are going to be eaten for lunch. If the RDs lower their accel in order to better sample the huge expanse of space, then they are more susceptible to being eaten. If they move too quickly they will certainly not detect the enemy. And they will need to cut their accel by a lot if they hope to get a sniff of spider ships.

Slowing down is required for detailed scans, not for detection in the first place. Though this may be right.

Anyway, "eaten for lunch" is the problem: the MAN cannot shoot at the drones it sees, because that reveals the position of the shooter and at what range it can see the drones. That's flaming datum. It will especially reveal that the shooter has no wedge, so the next GR can just flip and aim to ram the target, forcing it to fire CMs against GRs. That is now FTL flaming datum.

And if they don't shoot at the GRs, the GRs can still ram the ship.

No, the only solution is to not be detected by the GR in the first place. And the MAN won't know when it has or has not been detected.

Which brings us back to their dillema. What now, since the enemy has not been detected by your RDs? Plus, RDs don't grow on trees either.

But same dilemma in reverse, as above: the enemy doesn't know whether it has been detected.

Anyway, this is the most likely scenario with the technology as we've seen it: the LDs stay at great enough range that the chance of a random GRs passing close enough by to detect is very low. They launch torpedoes which do get close.

None of firing clouds of very visible-in-FTL missiles.

BTW, even if an RD detects an enemy presence before it is destroyed, how does that help the Fleet to localize the enemy for fire? The GA does not know the accel of the LDs. Even if they did know, the GA could blindfire every damn missile in its arsenal and still not hit the broad side of a barn.

If the RD detects the LD, then either it is following the LD or the next GR wave will be. They may not know the maximum possible acceleration an LD can pull — they may be thinking (and possibly correctly) that it's limiting acceleration to remain stealthy. But they will know the acceleration the LD is currently pulling.

The GR can't relay fire control data directly to an ACM, but it can back to the mothership and the mothership can send updated fire instructions to the ACM.

In all, if the GR detects the LD, the LD is toast.