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The Two General's Problem

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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by tlb   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 12:30 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:It's true that redundant messengers decreases the likelihood of the message going awry.

And even for the MAlign, even if we accept a 0% change of an enemy ship stumbling across the other fleet, there are still situations which might cause them to not be where you expected.

Two possible ones would be:
1) there are more than two "generals" involved and unknown to you someone else already sent that fleet orders which they've left to implement.
2) the "general" in charge of that fleet became aware of an opportunity (enemy vulnerability) that was just too good to pass up and took the fleet off on their own initiative

(In both cases it's possible that a notification is on its way to you; but may not have reached you before you sent out your orders)
penny wrote:I see your point. But wouldn't that essentially make it a Three General's problem? :D

And that would fall under the “commandeering of forces.“ Even in the RMN I don't think anyone would be allowed to commandeer a force that is particularly slated to be a part of an important two prong attack.

It'd be like Admiral Tsang allowing her fleet to be commandeered when she was tasked to support Admiral Filareta. Or like Tsang running off to chase after other priorities at the moment of truth on her own.

As for commandeering of forces, that does happen: in The Short Victorious War, the forces at Hancock grabbed some minelayers that were slated to go elsewhere:
Chapter 17 wrote:"It might be a good idea to ask about them, Sir," Honor suggested, and Sarnow nodded in agreement. The minelayers weren't officially assigned to Hancock—they'd simply been passing through on their way to Reevesport when Parks read Admiral Caparelli's dispatch and shortstopped them. It was probably little more than an instinctive reaction, but if he could be convinced to hold them here indefinitely . . .
I am not sure there is a Three-General Problem, because it is split into a pair of Two-General Problems; the reason is that one of the Generals will have seniority and that lessens the interaction between the two subordinate Generals.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by penny   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 1:12 pm

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tlb wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:It's true that redundant messengers decreases the likelihood of the message going awry.

And even for the MAlign, even if we accept a 0% change of an enemy ship stumbling across the other fleet, there are still situations which might cause them to not be where you expected.

Two possible ones would be:
1) there are more than two "generals" involved and unknown to you someone else already sent that fleet orders which they've left to implement.
2) the "general" in charge of that fleet became aware of an opportunity (enemy vulnerability) that was just too good to pass up and took the fleet off on their own initiative

(In both cases it's possible that a notification is on its way to you; but may not have reached you before you sent out your orders)
penny wrote:I see your point. But wouldn't that essentially make it a Three General's problem? :D

And that would fall under the “commandeering of forces.“ Even in the RMN I don't think anyone would be allowed to commandeer a force that is particularly slated to be a part of an important two prong attack.

It'd be like Admiral Tsang allowing her fleet to be commandeered when she was tasked to support Admiral Filareta. Or like Tsang running off to chase after other priorities at the moment of truth on her own.

As for commandeering of forces, that does happen: in The Short Victorious War, the forces at Hancock grabbed some minelayers that were slated to go elsewhere:
Chapter 17 wrote:"It might be a good idea to ask about them, Sir," Honor suggested, and Sarnow nodded in agreement. The minelayers weren't officially assigned to Hancock—they'd simply been passing through on their way to Reevesport when Parks read Admiral Caparelli's dispatch and shortstopped them. It was probably little more than an instinctive reaction, but if he could be convinced to hold them here indefinitely . . .
I am not sure there is a Three-General Problem, because it is split into a pair of Two-General Problems; the reason is that one of the Generals will have seniority and that lessens the interaction between the two subordinate Generals.

The Three Generals problem was a joke. Come on! :roll:

I created a thread on commandeering forces.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by tlb   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 2:41 pm

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penny wrote:And that would fall under the “commandeering of forces.“ Even in the RMN I don't think anyone would be allowed to commandeer a force that is particularly slated to be a part of an important two prong attack.

It'd be like Admiral Tsang allowing her fleet to be commandeered when she was tasked to support Admiral Filareta. Or like Tsang running off to chase after other priorities at the moment of truth on her own.

tlb wrote:As for commandeering of forces, that does happen:
penny wrote:I created a thread on commandeering forces.

If you are aware that commandeering can happen, then why say that it was not allowed? For all we know those minelayers were needed for a plan at their original destination.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by penny   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 3:34 pm

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tlb wrote:
penny wrote:And that would fall under the “commandeering of forces.“ Even in the RMN I don't think anyone would be allowed to commandeer a force that is particularly slated to be a part of an important two prong attack.

It'd be like Admiral Tsang allowing her fleet to be commandeered when she was tasked to support Admiral Filareta. Or like Tsang running off to chase after other priorities at the moment of truth on her own.

tlb wrote:As for commandeering of forces, that does happen:
penny wrote:I created a thread on commandeering forces.

If you are aware that commandeering can happen, then why say that it was not allowed? For all we know those minelayers were needed for a plan at their original destination.

Don't leave out the rest of my quote. I don't think it would be allowed to happen during an important two-prong attack. Like Imogene Tsang and Admiral Filareta. Usually something like that is well known by the entire navy. Even if not widely known, the officers in charge of those prongs of attack will undoubtedly be very high ranking officers. Who can pull rank on Tsang and Filareta? Another officer can certainly explain the situation to Tsang and request a detachment, but I'd think that's about it. Even if the commandeerer was of higher rank, essentially they'd be pulling rank on the Second Space Lord? Or whoever devised the two-pronged attack.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by Jonathan_S   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 4:24 pm

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penny wrote:Don't leave out the rest of my quote. I don't think it would be allowed to happen during an important two-prong attack. Like Imogene Tsang and Admiral Filareta. Usually something like that is well known by the entire navy. Even if not widely known, the officers in charge of those prongs of attack will undoubtedly be very high ranking officers. Who can pull rank on Tsang and Filareta? Another officer can certainly explain the situation to Tsang and request a detachment, but I'd think that's about it. Even if the commandeerer was of higher rank, essentially they'd be pulling rank on the Second Space Lord? Or whoever devised the two-pronged attack.

Sure, if it was a planned out important two-pronged attack then it's likely that that plan would only be overridden by orders to both commanders from higher (which might have it's own two generals problem with the higher authority not being sure both commanders got the new orders in time and the risk that half the old plan get executed anyway)

But two generals coordinating a two-pronged attack isn't always a pre-planned event with orders being handed down ahead of time to both to be ready for it. It could be one general realizes that a tactical (or possibly operational) situation has arisen where if a second nearby general cooperated a two-pronged attack would be very effective. And so, despite no prior coordination, sends off the newly hatched plan, and their part in it, to the other general.

Since the other general, and in fact anybody else who might be allowed to issue them orders, would be unaware that a two-prong attack plan is now in the offing the risks of that second general's forces ordered elsewhere before the communication from the first general gets there seems somewhat high.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by munroburton   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:14 pm

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It certainly was the greatest risk for the MAN during their Oyster Bay attack. Not only did they have simultaneous attacks planned in two star systems, one of them was further split into three sub-targets.

The streak drive is almost irrelevant; an Allied dispatch boat near the hyper limit alerted by FTL can be into hyperspace long before a second spider ship has received a lightspeed message from the first. The real problem for the MAN is they cannot use FTL comms while their enemies can.

One of their ships was almost discovered before the agreed time. If it had been, then their entire operation starts falling apart. The discovered task force is forced to attack early or abort. Depending on the timing, it will not be able to inform the other forces what has happened; they'd probably figure it out when their targets leaped to Zulu alert.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by tlb   » Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:48 pm

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munroburton wrote:It certainly was the greatest risk for the MAN during their Oyster Bay attack. Not only did they have simultaneous attacks planned in two star systems, one of them was further split into three sub-targets.

The streak drive is almost irrelevant; an Allied dispatch boat near the hyper limit alerted by FTL can be into hyperspace long before a second spider ship has received a lightspeed message from the first. The real problem for the MAN is they cannot use FTL comms while their enemies can.

One of their ships was almost discovered before the agreed time. If it had been, then their entire operation starts falling apart. The discovered task force is forced to attack early or abort. Depending on the timing, it will not be able to inform the other forces what has happened; they'd probably figure it out when their targets leaped to Zulu alert.

I assume you are talking about the Grayson patrol that went past a Ghost-class scout ship and did not see it. Although capturing a spider-drive filled (I expect) with dead crew would put a serious crimp into later operations, I am not sure how much damage it would do to the actual Oyster Bay plan. Unless the space stations raised their protective sidewalls and kept them up, most of the targets could still be hit. I doubt that it would result in the cancellation of the attack.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by penny   » Sat Feb 08, 2025 4:39 pm

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munroburton wrote:It certainly was the greatest risk for the MAN during their Oyster Bay attack. Not only did they have simultaneous attacks planned in two star systems, one of them was further split into three sub-targets.

The streak drive is almost irrelevant; an Allied dispatch boat near the hyper limit alerted by FTL can be into hyperspace long before a second spider ship has received a lightspeed message from the first. The real problem for the MAN is they cannot use FTL comms while their enemies can.

One of their ships was almost discovered before the agreed time. If it had been, then their entire operation starts falling apart. The discovered task force is forced to attack early or abort. Depending on the timing, it will not be able to inform the other forces what has happened; they'd probably figure it out when their targets leaped to Zulu alert.

Interesting post. Something to chew on. Question, were those three sub targets dependent on coordination to succeed?

Your comment about the Streak Drive is interesting. Yet I cannot prevent my brain from thinking that there has to be some scenario where its tactical advantage could win a few skirmishes.

Also, it seems that all navies are faced with The Two Generals' Problem. A Case Zulu faces the Two Generals' Problem if that messenger is prevented from sounding the alarm. I think this is an area where the MAN is going to teach the complacent GA a hard lesson. Spider drives can lay in wait for messengers leaving the system.

Ghosts: Operation Paul Revere. No ship shall leave the system to sound the alarm.
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by Jonathan_S   » Sat Feb 08, 2025 5:44 pm

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penny wrote:
munroburton wrote:It certainly was the greatest risk for the MAN during their Oyster Bay attack. Not only did they have simultaneous attacks planned in two star systems, one of them was further split into three sub-targets.

The streak drive is almost irrelevant; an Allied dispatch boat near the hyper limit alerted by FTL can be into hyperspace long before a second spider ship has received a lightspeed message from the first. The real problem for the MAN is they cannot use FTL comms while their enemies can.

One of their ships was almost discovered before the agreed time. If it had been, then their entire operation starts falling apart. The discovered task force is forced to attack early or abort. Depending on the timing, it will not be able to inform the other forces what has happened; they'd probably figure it out when their targets leaped to Zulu alert.

Interesting post. Something to chew on. Question, were those three sub targets dependent on coordination to succeed?

Your comment about the Streak Drive is interesting. Yet I cannot prevent my brain from thinking that there has to be some scenario where its tactical advantage could win a few skirmishes.

The three sub-targets were near-Manticore space, near-Sphinx space, near-Gryphon space.

The third is slightly more isolated -- with Manticore-B's distance from Manticore-A varying between 650 light-minutes at periastron to 827 light-minutes at apastron [HOS] (10.8 light-hours - 13.7) So, worst case, it's only about 50% further than the Junction and we know there's a line of Hermes Buoys allowing FTL comms between Manticore and the Junction. So I think we have to assume that there is also a line of them connecting Manticore & Sphynx to Gryphon. At that range FTL comms would have 10.5 - 13.25 minute one-way lag. (That's actually quick enough I'm not sure if a courier could shave any time off that even if it was waiting, with hyperdrive fully charged, even using FTL messaging for the portions within the hyper limit. So let's assume the Hermes relay is the minimum viable comm lag)

Then the Manticore to Sphynx maximum FTL comm lag is under 0.6 seconds (even when they're on totally opposite sides of the star); so effectively instant.


Given those comm lags if any part of the OB attack was detected more than about 15-20 minutes before impact there would have been time for all the warships, stations, and blockships, around all three targets to go to full alert - sidewalls going up, blockship wedges interposed against the apparent threat axis, sensors and sensor drones flooding the area. If that had happened the attacks would have been far less effective than the total surprise the MAlign achieved. (I suspect a lot of the dispersed yards would have still been lost, and there would have likely been damage to all three stations -- but it likely wouldn't have been the total damage they actually suffered. And so Yawata Crossing likely wouldn't have been taken out by falling station debris.

Even if either of the two Manticore-A segments of the attack had been detected at little as 5 minutes before impact at least the attacks on near-Manticore and near-Sphynx space should have been bluted; even if there was no longer time to warn Gryphon. (Or conversely if the Gryphon leg had been the one detected that close in the attack there should have been blunted but the attacks in Manticore-A would still have been a total surprise.

But that's still short enough that if the MAlign OB attack had been discovered much before.




As for a tactical use for the Streak drive. I've a hard time thinking of one for combat around a star. Most of that is within the hyper limit where the streak drive (like every hyper generator) doesn't work. And for attempting to hyper around the periphery it also seems no advantage, not unless it has additional undisclosed capabilities.

As far as we know it's only ability is to let a ship into the Iota and Kappa bands, but if you're just trying to get to the far side of a system that's useless -- the transit times even with a conventional hyper drive are so short you'd save effectively no time using the higher bands after you spent the extra time to get into and back out of them.

The one tactical use a Streak drive would have is during hyper-space combat. If you had conventional warships trying to intercept a fast convoy (mil grade propulsion freighters) it'd be nearly impossible since they'd all be able to use the Theta bands, and all have the same top speed (0.6c). But a Streak Drive, by climbing into the Iota or Kappa bands can attempt to overfly the target and drop back into the Theta bands ahead of it. (It's still tricky because of the velocity loss going between bands -- so it'll take a while after getting into the Iota band to work back up to speed and overtake the projected position of your target; and then you'll drop down and have a lower base velocity. So you've got to hope their base velocity is carrying them towards you so the fact that it's higher than yours doesn't help them. (This isn't a sure-fire win for the Streak Drive -- it'll take long enough that the target might change course while you're doing this, so they aren't where you estimated. Or they might drop to a lower band, or out of hyper entirely, to try to hide. So you likely need enough Streak warships to have some remain chasing the target while a few others try to drop across several of it's possible evasion courses. But it is a tactic that no non-Streak warship could attempt.
Of course its for a situation which almost never occurs...
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Re: The Two General's Problem
Post by penny   » Sun Feb 09, 2025 9:15 am

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Do forgive the misplaced apostrophe in the title, for all of us OCD Alphas, it is a side effect of the beta mod. :mrgreen:
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