Insanity: Screening elements in the HV

penny wrote:Take Thinksmarkedly, for instance. In his head, he immediately sees missiles driving hard at the junction and arriving in 14.8 seconds. After all, that's what their specs say they can do.

I did include some decision-making time loop in some of the calculations. Given a later calculation of an emergence lane-to-free-space distance of 10,000 km, the spider ship needs 90 seconds to clear the range. That gives a 45-second window to make a decision and 45 seconds for a missile from 1 million km away to arrive. Or 75 seconds to make a decision and a 15-second run for a 100,000 km away missile.

That's not counting the time to clear the Junction hyperlimit.

But what we should be discussing is what this ship is doing in the Junction region in the first place.

This is a total surprise… guys.

And? Yes, people get startled and won't know to do something... for a few seconds. Maybe they call the CO and need the CO to make a decision. That's what, one minute?

But this is the military. In peace time, they do two things: maintenance and drills. They will have drilled enemy emergences, either by singletons or a mass transit. They will have procedures that can be followed, even after being startled. And I think it's better to be safe than sorry, so fire the missiles while keeping your hand on the abort button.

This is the Manticoran Binary System. As far as traffic goes, it is the single most densest region of space. I know that is true, because none of you would let me forget about that fact in any of my threads. All of you were correct too. But you must not fail to carry the notion with you and apply it throughout your participation in the forum.

I think I am.

Thinksmarkedly, you said it yourself in the Wormhole Assault: MA Style thread. As far as traffic, the MBS is the most congested region of space. It is always bumper to bumper traffic like the I-5 in LA from 3 - 5 pm. Except in this case it is ALL OF THE TIME. All seven of the transit lanes are always full. All seven of the emergence lanes are always full. Am I the only one who can at least attempt to visualize the many things that may be happening in and around the junction on any given day; every single hour of every single day? The MBS is a cash cow that milks the MWJ for all it's worth; non-stop without fail. Time is money. Empty lanes mean lost revenue.

See other reply, but even if it were the case, "bumper to bumper" is a ship every few thousand km from each other.

Stop for a moment. Close your eyes. Can you visualize the melee?

No.

For instance, when an enemy comes across the hyper wall with blood in its eyes, all civilian and unnecessary traffic is diverted. The MWJ is shutdown to non naval vessels. A total surprise does not allow any time for that at all. In fact, a surprise enemy transit could spook all of the civilian vessels into creating mayhem themselves trying to flee the scene in an non orderly manner.

I don't agree. An enemy arriving from hyper is a far more dangerous threat to the ships and warehouses around the junction than one emerging piecemeal from the wormholes. For one thing, far more enemy ships can arrive at a moment in time than through the Junction.

But more importantly, I don't see a consequence of this. So what if all the civilians start fleeing in all directions from inside the Junction queues? The worst that can happen is that some lines of fire from the forts or missile shoals get occluded... but not all of them. And especially not immediately: freighters accelerating at 150 gravities take time to shift their vectors.

Also mind you, the civilians don't know that an enemy has arrived until Junction control tells them. So the Junction control and the defences can shoot the enemy first and then tell the civilians to veer off, with a vector that they should follow to stay out of the fighting. Yes, some of them will panic and not follow instructions, but the majority will follow. They don't want to be anywhere near the fighting.

Anyway, for goodness sakes, this is the MBS. The most fortified area of space known to man. It is defended by the most powerful and experienced navy in existence. They do not scare easily and they do not jump at shadows. No more than if someone came up behind an officer and startled him that his reaction should be to fire his weapon.

Agreed, which is why I don't think there's any way to force a transit without a message coming through from the other side that this is coming. The only situation I could find was a piggy-back: a spider-drive ship tags along a bulk freighter and transits with them (a two-ship mass transit).

So, no. There is no way the MWJ will be fired upon in 14.8 seconds with all of those innocent lives at stake! Heck, the first thoughts might be something like, “That idiot is still arranging transits without verification. Someone needs to have a nice long talk with him.”

Let's talk about what that enemy ship is going to do when they arrive.

Are they going to keep in stealth for some later opportunity, at a high value target? Then there's no immediacy in shooting it down either. The question then is only whether it was detected or not. If it wasn't detected, then it goes along its plan.

But I claim there's no way it can go undetected, not with multiple redundant sensor suites within 100,000 km of the emergence lanes. They may not be the latest GR hardware, but they would also not need to be portable drones in the first place. They sensor platforms don't need to be stealthy, so they can be bigger and run a bigger fusion reactor to scan their region. This is even assuming that the transit itself of such a big ship can be undetected, which we don't know at all about.

And a mass transit will definitely be noticed. I can't believe that 15 massive warships could suddenly transit into a system simultaneously and no one notice they've arrived.

So what happens when the enemy warship has transited? Let's assume this ship doesn't begin firing grasers as soon as it arrives. At a minimum, it will be challenged by Astro Control to identify themselves and provide an authentication code. I can't think of any way that they could provide valid authentication codes: there's no way they're going to match the ship profile that the sensor platforms will have seen. Unless the MAN is fielding Invictus-class knock-offs.

And what does a military do when a hostile ship suddenly appears without warning in their midst? They will fire at it. The hostile can't have any good intentions - if they had had, they'd have allowed an RMN crew to board it at the origin, not transit stealthily. This may not be an immediate reaction, but even a 2-minute decision loop is short enough. And it's long enough for the hostile ship to have responded - or failed to - any challenges coming from Astro Control and from the RMN.

The MBS will probably be held responsible for lost revenue, goods, technology, etc., due to irresponsible actions. A related real world incident is the ongoing lawsuits regarding a container ship that crashed into the landmark Francis Scott Key Bridge near the US city of Baltimore, causing most of it to collapse.

Force majeure applies. No insurance contract covers destruction in case of war.

In the Francis Scott Key Bridge case, neither the city of Baltimore, the State of Maryland or the US government are the ones needing to reimburse for lost revenue (though they will have to foot the bill for reconstructing the bridge). The operators of the ship that was deemed negligent are. I'd really like to see the Crown send the MAlign a bill.

I presume you're talking about the RMN being held liable for shooting in a situation that didn't call for it. You're saying the defenders would be reticent to start hostilities because of this.

Let's say it is the case. So what? The hostile ship is under the guns of and being tracked by the defenders. If the hostile ship is not shooting at anyone, then the military may wait to see what happens, while they tell civilians to veer away. If the civilians have, then there is little danger to them if hostilities do start.

And if the hostile starts shooting? Then the military fires. Even the lowliest officer holding watch will know to push the "retaliate" button without waiting for the admiral to wake up and get dressed. It's best to shoot at the hostile and eliminate the threat than to allow the hostile to destroy infrastructure, defences and civilians.

I maintain, LDs will have plenty of time to execute evasive maneuvers. And before someone says so, I don't think that any given vessel in the area would see the spider scurrying away. Civilian vessels won't be scanning the area. And I question the ability to see a spider with the naked eye. The smart paint was developed to prevent naked-eye detection.

No, they do not.

And evasive for what? What is their plan here? If they start firing, the defenders start firing too. See above.

No one is looking out a porthole either. The Junction has sensor platforms, if nothing else for ensuring smugglers aren't doing something nefarious. This is the single most motivating factor: taxation!

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And? Yes, people get startled and won't know to do something... for a few seconds. Maybe they call the CO and need the CO to make a decision. That's what, one minute?

But this is the military. In peace time, they do two things: maintenance and drills. They will have drilled enemy emergences, either by singletons or a mass transit. They will have procedures that can be followed, even after being startled. And I think it's better to be safe than sorry, so fire the missiles while keeping your hand on the abort button.

And in wartime we know some of the defenses were set to automatic engagement if certain thing happened - primarily a hostile transit from Tevor's Star; but quite likely they had other parameters to automatically consider a ship hostile (for example deviating wildly from the mandated flight path -- such as pulling a 90 degree turn and trying to fly out the side of the transit lane)

If any of those defenses remain on full computer control then human reaction time wouldn't be relevant

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And a mass transit will definitely be noticed. I can't believe that 15 massive warships could suddenly transit into a system simultaneously and no one notice they've arrived..

I can't believe it'd be unnoticed either.
But even if somehow the transit wasn't seen, and somehow the ships sneak clear without detection, the fact that a large transit had occurred would quite quickly become obvious.

A mass transit of 15 LDs would lock that leg of the Junction down for about 17 hours -- and the fact that it was locked down would be instantly (and possibly painfully) apparent the first time another ship tried to jump down it. So Astro Control and Junction Defense would, at that point, know that some ship had to have somehow made transit without being noticed and take everything to highest alert.

So there's a hard cap on how long even a perfectly invisible transit could remain undiscovered. (And worse from a MAlign planner's point of view they have no way to know ahead of time how short that hard cap might be because the time until the next ship might try to use it is variable)

I will respectfully suggest that the MWHJ is more to be compared to the Panama Canal or Suez Canal than to any multi-lane highway you have ever seen or heard about.
If that's not complex enough, consider the airspace around the Greater New York Metropolitan Airports (just Kennedy, LaGuardia in NY and Newark in New Jersey, not including all the small airports in the area. Multiple runways each, inbound and outbound and approach/deaprture vectors for each runway with hundreds of commercial and private aircraft coming in (normally with at least a publisher schedule) which has to be constantly adjusted for wind direction and other weather.

In the 1st point you are not going to sending differnt tonnage ships in though multiple feeder lanes like a 6 lane superhighway necking down to a one lane bridge. There are two lanes for each termini- one inbound, one outbound. You need a LONG feed line and must keep ships at appropriated safe distances to and moving at very slow (for spacecraft) speeds to make sure they are staying in the right order, at the right distance.

In the 2nd point, for a canal, you either make reservations in advance or "take a number" for the order you are going to transit, primarily on when you arrive. The owners (and Astro Control as the managers) handle the logistics of that. IF there is some good reason for a ship or ships to be moved ahead of the rest in the queue, it will be handled by Astor Control. Transit of your own military in case of need is going to get handled. If you show up early for your reservation you are going to cool your heels until your reservation unless things are slow and there is an earlier opening. Actually, that is exactly what happens at major airports unless there are extenuating circumstances -like a declared in-flight emergency.

In the 3rd point, EVERYBODY wants to move as fast as possible but they always make allowances for difficulties. Like having to go through customs inspections for any good that are to dropped off or transshipped at either end of a canal or wormhole. So they plan on it. If they have to wait a considerable time, the starships have a lot of space (literally) where Astro Control can park them to wait.

In the 4th point----if several LD show up at essentially point-blank range for whatever their weapons packages are and fire into the traffic incoming to departure lanes or from arrival lanes there is going to be a lot of confusion and a lot of damaged or destroyed ships since it's IFFY to break out of a transit lane once you get to X distance from the wormhole. Gravitational stress, lack of clear space - said gravitational challenges- and the very real opportunity to cross wedges with other ships also to get away. How many ships of what tonnage, what ability to decelerate or accelerate AND ability to maneuver with whatever speed and their own inertia to even attempt to avoid weapons fire or damaged ships (or debris) and get safely though the navigation lane they are in (ingoing or exiting the Junction. Then there is the added challenge of the local military trying to blow the crap out of whatever attacked and having to do it (while watching their backs, butts and belly for newly arriving attackers) while dodging all that panicked commercial traffic.

In the 5th point--you are presupposing this the Alignment is the attacker- the Alignment doesn't care how much damage they do and how many people they kill. Cut off the Junction income from Manticore....who cares? Massively disrupt starship traffic over a thousand systems- again, who cares? Break your enemy's ability to block your plans. The Wormhole is going to still be there, your just screwing up the economies of thousands of systems---and you don't care.

Brigade XO wrote: In the 5th point--you are presupposing this the Alignment is the attacker- the Alignment doesn't care how much damage they do and how many people they kill. Cut off the Junction income from Manticore....who cares? Massively disrupt starship traffic over a thousand systems- again, who cares? Break your enemy's ability to block your plans. The Wormhole is going to still be there, your just screwing up the economies of thousands of systems---and you don't care.

And that might actually be their objective.

But I don't see that as the result. Disruption, loss of revenue, yes. Disrupting a full economy? No, you'd need far more firepower to do that and block the Junction for much longer than an hour for that to happen.

In fact, their targets should be the orbital warehouses, not the forts and not the ships. Each freighter ship is expensive and may be an insurmountable loss for a smaller shipping combine or system. The forts are important, but there are so many of them and with such thick defences that it's unlikely that the assault will wreck enough of them. And they are replaceable. The warehouses, however, are much more fragile, contain a lot more in assets that cannot be readily replaced, and would create a massive bottleneck and headache to shipping through the Junction while they are replaced. It could be months until there are enough warehouses again. The loss in revenue to Manticore on junction fees and storage fees may even be a tenth of the cost of the LDs that were blown up to achieve this!

Jonathan, what you're suggesting.

The MWJ has rush hour traffic. Just like LA!

I can accept that. I wonder what its peak times are? Is it twelve-hour rush-hour traffic? Anyway, nothing changes.

And of course they're going to detect the transit. What I am positing is that under certain conditions, stealth and unprecedented tactics, they are not going to detect the spider drives.

Is it given how quickly a ship can drop its sails? Or is it given how quickly it cannot?

Jonathan, there may not be a whoosh when exiting the WH, like the Stargate or Star Trek. But I'm none too sure there isn't some sort of surge when the transit happens. Be it gravitic or energetic or both. I'll even accept a surge only upon arrival (emergence lanes); akin to downward translations bleeding off energy. But I just can't accept that there isn't some sort of disturbance when the gate is opened. How can the gravity that is in the emergence lane – which is associated with the WH itself – not be affected by the transit door opening. And during that short disturbance, I’d be willing to bet that sensors cannot get a reading. At least 1-2 seconds. Can a Spider change into a ghost in that time?

Something is curiously missing in the series? From my POV. Lest I missed it. Battles never give the time of the day of the attacks. The name of the system and planet is given. But I find myself wondering about the local time. Are most people in bed? Exactly what is the best time for a drive-by? If traffic decreases considerably at night, then would Astro Control staff a full crew? I bet they're not as alert as they should be. Or could be. The skeleton crew, if present, are in the coat closet… making more skeletons… in the closet.

I'm still not ready to let go of the possibility the MAN can stack conventional ships so that their sails block an LD’s signature in the emergence lane just long enough. Why can't ships orient themselves perpendicular to the formation? Their sails can be completely trimmed, but very much existent. Then the huge sails of the ships on the sides of the formation would hide the LDs in the middle of the formation. I am betting on an LD's ability to instantly drop down a manhole cover

— Z minus 10,000 km —

with respect to the junction. The emergence lane is insignificant to the LD. And with respect to my notion that it should take a couple of seconds before sensors can make bricks out of a translation because of the gravity/disturbance.

Transits are instantaneous. In an instant the emergence lane is aglow with a very radiant brightness that is for the most part very close together. I can't accept that it doesn't take at least a few seconds to sort it all out.

Again, why can't ships orient themselves perpendicular to the formation?

I can even accept that if possible it would be a very complicated and difficult maneuver, only possible by the absolute best helmsman. Or Alpha Captain. Who, like Honor, would take control of the stick herself.

Hmm… too lazy to check my own posts about how fast a ship can spin or rotate 90 degrees by the time it hits the transit door. The Junction Maneuver.


Peculiar Question
Thinksmarkedly : To what ends?

You're a strategist. Being able to sneak a fort through an enemy’s junction doesn't tickle your tactics???

Brigade XO wrote:I will respectfully suggest that the MWHJ is more to be compared to the Panama Canal or Suez Canal than to any multi-lane highway you have ever seen or heard about.
If that's not complex enough, consider the airspace around the Greater New York Metropolitan Airports (just Kennedy, LaGuardia in NY and Newark in New Jersey, not including all the small airports in the area. Multiple runways each, inbound and outbound and approach/deaprture vectors for each runway with hundreds of commercial and private aircraft coming in (normally with at least a publisher schedule) which has to be constantly adjusted for wind direction and other weather.

In the 1st point you are not going to sending differnt tonnage ships in though multiple feeder lanes like a 6 lane superhighway necking down to a one lane bridge. There are two lanes for each termini- one inbound, one outbound. You need a LONG feed line and must keep ships at appropriated safe distances to and moving at very slow (for spacecraft) speeds to make sure they are staying in the right order, at the right distance.

In the 2nd point, for a canal, you either make reservations in advance or "take a number" for the order you are going to transit, primarily on when you arrive. The owners (and Astro Control as the managers) handle the logistics of that. IF there is some good reason for a ship or ships to be moved ahead of the rest in the queue, it will be handled by Astor Control. Transit of your own military in case of need is going to get handled. If you show up early for your reservation you are going to cool your heels until your reservation unless things are slow and there is an earlier opening. Actually, that is exactly what happens at major airports unless there are extenuating circumstances -like a declared in-flight emergency.

In the 3rd point, EVERYBODY wants to move as fast as possible but they always make allowances for difficulties. Like having to go through customs inspections for any good that are to dropped off or transshipped at either end of a canal or wormhole. So they plan on it. If they have to wait a considerable time, the starships have a lot of space (literally) where Astro Control can park them to wait.

In the 4th point----if several LD show up at essentially point-blank range for whatever their weapons packages are and fire into the traffic incoming to departure lanes or from arrival lanes there is going to be a lot of confusion and a lot of damaged or destroyed ships since it's IFFY to break out of a transit lane once you get to X distance from the wormhole. Gravitational stress, lack of clear space - said gravitational challenges- and the very real opportunity to cross wedges with other ships also to get away. How many ships of what tonnage, what ability to decelerate or accelerate AND ability to maneuver with whatever speed and their own inertia to even attempt to avoid weapons fire or damaged ships (or debris) and get safely though the navigation lane they are in (ingoing or exiting the Junction. Then there is the added challenge of the local military trying to blow the crap out of whatever attacked and having to do it (while watching their backs, butts and belly for newly arriving attackers) while dodging all that panicked commercial traffic.

In the 5th point--you are presupposing this the Alignment is the attacker- the Alignment doesn't care how much damage they do and how many people they kill. Cut off the Junction income from Manticore....who cares? Massively disrupt starship traffic over a thousand systems- again, who cares? Break your enemy's ability to block your plans. The Wormhole is going to still be there, your just screwing up the economies of thousands of systems---and you don't care.

This is a guy with his finger on the pulse of the real world during rush hour traffic.

Causing chaos is certainly an option for the LD if it does not care about its presence being known. It would most likely launch a couple of stealthy platforms that will target prey and light off its wedges far away from the LD.

And do consider that a few of the Spider's eggs can be left in the lane. G-torps would function just fine in the lane and attacking across lanes. Remember, g-torps wouldn't need sails in or between lanes. And you are correct Brigade; an LD wouldn't give aratsass about any pile-ups caused in and around and about the junction during rush-hour traffic.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Brigade XO wrote: In the 5th point--you are presupposing this the Alignment is the attacker- the Alignment doesn't care how much damage they do and how many people they kill. Cut off the Junction income from Manticore....who cares? Massively disrupt starship traffic over a thousand systems- again, who cares? Break your enemy's ability to block your plans. The Wormhole is going to still be there, your just screwing up the economies of thousands of systems---and you don't care.

And that might actually be their objective.

But I don't see that as the result. Disruption, loss of revenue, yes. Disrupting a full economy? No, you'd need far more firepower to do that and block the Junction for much longer than an hour for that to happen.

In fact, their targets should be the orbital warehouses, not the forts and not the ships. Each freighter ship is expensive and may be an insurmountable loss for a smaller shipping combine or system. The forts are important, but there are so many of them and with such thick defences that it's unlikely that the assault will wreck enough of them. And they are replaceable. The warehouses, however, are much more fragile, contain a lot more in assets that cannot be readily replaced, and would create a massive bottleneck and headache to shipping through the Junction while they are replaced. It could be months until there are enough warehouses again. The loss in revenue to Manticore on junction fees and storage fees may even be a tenth of the cost of the LDs that were blown up to achieve this!

More importantly, lack of faith in the Junction's ownership. If I'm a third party shipper and my stored load of what-it's was destroyed because it was sitting in a warehouse waiting to be transshipped, I will probably amend future shipping arrangements not to use the junction/warehousing. Like the Gulf of Hormuz, I'll pay extra to go the long way around Africa, and not worry about my precious what-it's being shot at by the locals.

Faith and perception is a powerful thing, and you create the right narrative and force people to loose faith, what was the bedrock of the economy can overnight become a leper.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And that might actually be their objective.

But I don't see that as the result. Disruption, loss of revenue, yes. Disrupting a full economy? No, you'd need far more firepower to do that and block the Junction for much longer than an hour for that to happen.

In fact, their targets should be the orbital warehouses, not the forts and not the ships. Each freighter ship is expensive and may be an insurmountable loss for a smaller shipping combine or system. The forts are important, but there are so many of them and with such thick defences that it's unlikely that the assault will wreck enough of them. And they are replaceable. The warehouses, however, are much more fragile, contain a lot more in assets that cannot be readily replaced, and would create a massive bottleneck and headache to shipping through the Junction while they are replaced. It could be months until there are enough warehouses again. The loss in revenue to Manticore on junction fees and storage fees may even be a tenth of the cost of the LDs that were blown up to achieve this!

Theemile wrote:More importantly, lack of faith in the Junction's ownership. If I'm a third party shipper and my stored load of what-it's was destroyed because it was sitting in a warehouse waiting to be transshipped, I will probably amend future shipping arrangements not to use the junction/warehousing. Like the Gulf of Hormuz, I'll pay extra to go the long way around Africa, and not worry about my precious what-it's being shot at by the locals.

Faith and perception is a powerful thing, and you create the right narrative and force people to loose faith, what was the bedrock of the economy can overnight become a leper.

But the Malign already has a tactical plan to create results like that (Oyster Bay) and it can be achieved without the prelude which advertises what is about to happen in a way which might make the attacking ships vulnerable. Simply come in from space and not the wormhole.

tlb wrote:But the Malign already has a tactical plan to create results like that (Oyster Bay) and it can be achieved without the prelude which advertises what is about to happen in a way which might make the attacking ships vulnerable. Simply come in from space and not the wormhole.

Quite correct - a hyper attacker can jump right on the junction out of the black if their navigation is good. no need to battle through the defenses on one side of the wormhole, then though the defenses on the other side only to fire a handful of missiles at a defenseless warehouse. There's 12-16 forts on most of the terminus sides, capable of holding off 200+ RMN SD(p), and 60 on the Junction, plus mobile defenders, Minefields, Pods, LACS and IEWPs. An attack from hyper is much more likely to lead to success than through the junction.

penny wrote:The MWJ has rush hour traffic. Just like LA!

I can accept that. I wonder what its peak times are? Is it twelve-hour rush-hour traffic? Anyway, nothing changes.

I can't think of such a thing. It should be roughly evenly distributed throughout a day. There's no reason for the Junction to operate on any one planet's time: ships will be arriving at nearly uniform times because their origins have very different calendars and the distances are also going to average out the arrival times.

The worst that can happen is that the warehouse some ships use only operate 10 hours per 22.45 hour (one Manticore day) and therefore they start their journey from a warehouse through the Junction at specific times. But I don't see how such a warehouse operator would be big enough to cause such disturbances in traffic. They'd make more money by operating 22.45/10 (I think Manticore weeks are 10 days, aren't they?).

And of course they're going to detect the transit. What I am positing is that under certain conditions, stealth and unprecedented tactics, they are not going to detect the spider drives.

No, I don't think they'll detect the drives unless they know what to look for. And they won't until they first find out about the drive.

But the ship itself should be detectable at these ranges. Since you know something transited, it stands to reason something is there. Put enough recon drones and fixed sensor platforms on the job and you'll find it. Light it up with active radar and lidar, in fact - at these ranges, below 150,000 km, those should be quite effective. Recon drones flying in at 30,000 gravities can also awfully close to the emergence lane.

The question here is the human one: how soon would the defenders give up searching?

Is it given how quickly a ship can drop its sails? Or is it given how quickly it cannot?

A regular ship can't drop them until it has left the emergence lane. The time required to transition from sails to wedge and back appears to be quite minimal.

But we're presuming here that the spider drive can act as a sail too, so it doesn't need the 250-km wide shining beacon that the Warshawski sail is. This is an unconfirmed guess on our part, but I'm beginning to think it has the right sound of it. We didn't hear anyone who looked at the triple-skeg spider ships think about the impeller rings to generate sails, and it would be a major footgun not to be able to use wormholes, like Felix. We're also assuming that the spider in this configuration is as stealthy as in open space, though this one is a bigger leap of faith than the previous assumption.

Jonathan, there may not be a whoosh when exiting the WH, like the Stargate or Star Trek. But I'm none too sure there isn't some sort of surge when the transit happens. Be it gravitic or energetic or both. I'll even accept a surge only upon arrival (emergence lanes); akin to downward translations bleeding off energy. But I just can't accept that there isn't some sort of disturbance when the gate is opened. How can the gravity that is in the emergence lane – which is associated with the WH itself – not be affected by the transit door opening. And during that short disturbance, I’d be willing to bet that sensors cannot get a reading. At least 1-2 seconds. Can a Spider change into a ghost in that time?

It doesn't appear that the wormhole "opens" and "closes" at all. It's always there, always open. So any effects it has are permanent.

The transiting of a ship may induce further disturbances, I agree. I find that likely, and also more likely that bigger ships induce bigger disturbances. After all, we know that bigger ships do lock the wormhole down for longer periods. Do note the consequence of this: if the disturbance can be measured, even roughly, you can also estimate the mass of what transited, even if you can't see it. In that case, you can't sneak an LD along with a freighter: the upping of the mass from 8 to 24 million tonnes is going to be very noticeable.

One of those "hmm... that's funny" moments that bored sensor watches may want to investigate. Something a lieutenant would gladly give his/her ensigns or midshipmen as homework.

Something is curiously missing in the series? From my POV. Lest I missed it. Battles never give the time of the day of the attacks. The name of the system and planet is given. But I find myself wondering about the local time. Are most people in bed?

Planets are round and therefore it's beer o'clock somewhere there.

But I agree a good tactician would plan an attack such that it is the middle of the night in the capital city and the main control centres. Not very useful for wedge ships that can be seen arriving for at least 2 hours, giving time for everyone to get out of bed, make their way to their offices and have a cup of raktajino. For spider ships that can arrive unannounced, that could be useful.

Exactly what is the best time for a drive-by? If traffic decreases considerably at night, then would Astro Control staff a full crew? I bet they're not as alert as they should be. Or could be. The skeleton crew, if present, are in the coat closet… making more skeletons… in the closet.

As I said above, I don't think the Junction has rush hour. Its traffic is likely very homogeneous the 22.45 hours of the day.

That doesn't mean the admiral in command of the Junction detachment is up all that time. If the attacker can get their hands on the shift allocation, they could plan an attack to coincide with the admiral being 2 hours into their sleep schedule.

I'm still not ready to let go of the possibility the MAN can stack conventional ships so that their sails block an LD’s signature in the emergence lane just long enough. Why can't ships orient themselves perpendicular to the formation? Their sails can be completely trimmed, but very much existent. Then the huge sails of the ships on the sides of the formation would hide the LDs in the middle of the formation. I am betting on an LD's ability to instantly drop down a manhole cover

They can't block all angles and protect themselves. They could hide the LD in their midst, but the blocking ships themselves would be vulnerable and would get explodey very quickly after that. At that point, the LD is going to get peppered with high-speed debris from those ships and then it's going to find itself without protection.

The problem though is the impossibility of transiting with wedge ships without a warning going through that terminus was under attack. You'd need to position assets near the outbound lane so that it can deny any traffic once the attack starts and survive long enough to achieve this. That means a total surprise by the spider ships so they take over the terminus on the first shot. The wedge ships need to also be very near the outbound lane before the attack starts and they need to be MAlign ships already, because commandeering whatever is there is going to take longer. Then there will be a minimum of half hour with no transits while they set up the mass transit. The Junction side is going to wonder what's wrong in all that time if the traffic suddenly stopped (and they know they schedule of what's coming).

Plus, you'll need to dedicate mass for those blocking ships, at least 2/3 of it. That reduces the number of LDs you can send. In fact, it might be better to send smaller ships so you can win by numbers. Since by author fiat you can't transit unmanned vehicles, the smallest spider that could transit is a Ghost with maybe two torpedoes attached.

with respect to the junction. The emergence lane is insignificant to the LD. And with respect to my notion that it should take a couple of seconds before sensors can make bricks out of a translation because of the gravity/disturbance.

Not nearly enough to get away from the transit point.

Transits are instantaneous. In an instant the emergence lane is aglow with a very radiant brightness that is for the most part very close together. I can't accept that it doesn't take at least a few seconds to sort it all out.

I will agree, but I don't see how that changes anything in the MAlign's favour. It makes it worse because it's clear something transited.

Again, why can't ships orient themselves perpendicular to the formation?

Unknown if the can. I think we can reasonably say that they can't during the transit itself: you must be in a particular geometry for the transit to work, period.

Could they shift position after transit? Probably: sails can tack on the gravitic winds, so they could reorient after arriving. But without the wedge, they can't rotate quickly, so they're limited by reaction thrusters and whatever the sails can do. Either way, see above for the blocking ships exploding and making dents in the stealth of the spider ships.

I can even accept that if possible it would be a very complicated and difficult maneuver, only possible by the absolute best helmsman. Or Alpha Captain. Who, like Honor, would take control of the stick herself.

The more difficult it is, the longer it would take to set up from the other side before making the transit.

Thinksmarkedly : To what ends?

You're a strategist. Being able to sneak a fort through an enemy’s junction doesn't tickle your tactics???

That sounds like step 1 of 3 of the "MAlign's Underpants Plan".

1. Sneak ships through / steal underpants
2. ??
3. Profit

Let's talk when we know what step 2 is.