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Commerce raiding

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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by Sigs   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:49 pm

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munroburton wrote:Yes, arguably that is what the Manticoran Alliance should have done; gone around burning those goose farms to the ground along with their BB guard dogs. Especially after they took Trevor's Star.

I can understand why they didn't. It doesn't look good in League eyes and it would not create many friends out of Haven's victims. We know about 150 systems decided to leave the Republic between AoV and WoH; I'd say those were the systems which would have been burned in a first-war version of Operation Cutworm.


The alternative is that there was little value to those systems and that's why they didn't bother.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by Sigs   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:34 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
It makes sense to ask those questions. Though the answer as to why Haven didn't use the BBs in the first war is obvious: the ships weren't available. The question you should be asking and trying to answer is the one you asked before: why weren't they available? My guess is that the reasons they were tied down were more political in nature than military.


I understand they were political reasons, but the committee wasn't presented as drooling morons, so they should have been able to look at the situation and come up with the most basic of solutions. The solution doesn't require a Phd and 5 decades of naval service, it is as simple as 1+1=2, the war is not going well and you have substantial number of battleships that are being used to protect against systems that don't have the firepower to threaten LACs let alone battleships.



I was complaining that you seemed to be bypassing the question and assume that the ships were available and therefore the PN should have used them. Maybe I misunderstood a scenario of "if they had been available (and the Peeps had been smart) this is what could have happened."


The ships were available, when the situation changed and the PN started losing ground the comitee should have rubbed two braincells together and come up with the obvious solution of bringing in all of the BB's except a small rear area QRF. Situation changes and the leadership should be able to reassess that situation and make changes. It is overkill that even the most ignorant civilian on the committee should be able to see.





As for why Haven didn't follow-through on Thunderbolt, we have the answer to that too: Pritchart didn't want it. Thunderbolt recovered the systems that had been part of the Republic before and for which High Ridge had been refusing to allow a referendum in. It had a few more military objectives, but the civilian leadership in Nouveau Paris wanted to convince the Alliance they were not expansionists any more. They wanted to force the Alliance leadership to negotiate.


And that makes no sense, launch an offensive against the Alliance, force a powerful neutral nation into the alliance and then sit back and wait for them to build up their fleet and think up of new technologies. A lot of the books are written so well and make sense then you have this major events that make no sense or make the characters look like absolute clowns that shouldn't be in charge of an ice cream shop let alone a major nation.




It doesn't have to make sense to us if it is political in nature. The self-interest and the long-held convictions (such as having to appear strong everywhere) are difficult to overcome and that would lead to a distorted result.
Problem with that theory is that the main Committee members were rather intelligent and should be able to figure out that when the navy is losing and begging for more ships keeping battleships in the rear makes no sense. Throughout the series there were plenty of examples when the battleships were used but that only happened in small enough numbers and too late to make a difference.


Why? One would assume that defending the systems near Trevor's Star would be valuable militarily. The doctrine at the time required bases to launch attacks from and to return to. Denying such systems to the Alliance would therefore increase the chances of withstanding an attack to retake Trevor's Star.


Say I have 160 SD's and 160 BB's defending Trevor's Star and the 10 stars around it. Which makes more sense:

6 Systems have 1 SD and 1 BB squadron, each, 4 have 2 SD and 2 BB squadrons each and Trevors star has 6 SD and 6 BB squadrons

or Trevor's Star having 20 SD squadrons and 20 BB squadrons?

One splits the forces needlessly and lets them be defeated in detail by a much smaller enemy force, the other surrenders systems that the RHN would lose anyway, keeps the strategically important system under control and frees substantial SD and BB squadrons for offensive operations without endangering the important system.

One scenario has the RMN marching in with 60 SD's and crushing the RHN in battle after battle in small pockets of resistance while the other has the RHN allowing the RMN to capture systems they would have taken anyway, keep a force that would prevent the RMN from taking Trevor's Star and still free up a few dozen SD's ad BB's to go out and make the RMN question their decisions.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by Sigs   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 7:46 pm

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Theemile wrote:
ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Let's also consider travel times and positioning. Trevor's star was ~ a month travel from Haven, and haven controlled a month's travel on the other side of it as well. Calling up a ship from one side of the People's republic for action on the other side could take 4 months (1 month for the need to arrive on Haven, 1 month to send communications to said ship/formation, and 2 months for said ship/formation to travel to it's destination. And if it's needed back there - 4 months to move it back. And while traveling, the formation is incommunicado, unless it stops along it's way (which prolongs it's travel time) and a message happens to intercept it.

And, of course, every offensive action takes those units out of play for any other uses for the duration of the raid - adding 2-8 weeks of inability every time they sortie.

My point being, unless pre-planned, nothing is where you need it on grounds this large, nor can you reliably move said pieces around. Further, you need to do so hesitantly, because moving said ship takes it out use for anything else for huge swaths of time. If regional governors don't feel secure, they will not relinquish units they won't see back for 4+ months

Like Filaretta's 11th fleet moving to attack Manticore, their actions removed that formation from doing anything else for the SLN for ~12 months. It's a strategic decision that says you don't have another need for that formation of hundreds of ships, or this need trumps any other need. Could the ~700 SDs of Raging Justice II (the forward deployed, but never engaged followup to Filaretta's doomed force) have been used better? It would take 10 months + to recall them back to Sol, and they never engaged the enemy as intended - and because they were forward deployed 5 months away from Sol, they were not near Sol to defend it or reinforce it (not that it would have mattered).


The war starts in 1905 and Trevor's Star is taken before 1911 but not likely before 1910 so they had plenty of time but more importantly, all those systems that were around Trevor's Star would have made the RMN's conquest of the system nearly impossible if they were kept concentrated in Trevor's Star rather than defending nearby systems. A fleet having 100 wallers split across 10 systems is infinitely weaker than 100 wallers concentrated in one system.

The RMN cannot advance past Trevor's Star in any force until they take it and they can't take it if the system picket is so strong that it would require 50%+ of the RMN's wall tot dislodge it.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:32 pm

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Sigs wrote:The RMN cannot advance past Trevor's Star in any force until they take it and they can't take it if the system picket is so strong that it would require 50%+ of the RMN's wall tot dislodge it.

Actually they probably could take it if 50%+ of their wall was required due to the Peep forces were concentrated there. Take the system (or even just the terminus; which lacked fixed defenses) and the wormhole is open for you to use to rapidly shift ships back to cover areas you'd left temporarily vulnerable for the attack. So you can afford to concentrate them for an attack because even if their departure is detected you can likely get them back in place before the Peeps can respond. (And given the benefits of holding Trevor's Star Manticore can afford to risk lose a few systems, temporarily, if they absolutely have to in order to take it)

Plus if the Peeps stay turtled up the RMN could use their pod monopoly to wear them down. Take one of the now undefended nearby systems and set up a fleet resupply base -- from there run a series of frequent hit and fade attacks. 3rd fleet rolls in with a heavy load of towed pods, dump that alpha strike into the defenders face and then withdraw to that nearby base to patch up any damaged ships and grab a fresh load of pods; then come back in a day or two to do it all over again. Thanks to the pod load even if all the nearby defending ships were concentrated at Trevor's Star they couldn't keep 3rd fleet from inflicting very disproportionate damage and loss in that initial salvo -- but if they're too strong for 3rd fleet to overcome then 3rd can fall back and fight again another day (soon). The Peeps either need to pull back their damaged units; for which they'd need to scrape up replacements or watch their combat power fall off even faster, or else if they keep them in the wall suffer ever greater casualties as already damages ships are easier targets. And given your nearby base you can hit Trevors Star faster than they can send reinforcements -- so after you've worn them down enough with the alpha strikes you can change strategy and continue the fight past the first salvo and finish capturing the system (and if things aren't going as well as you expect you can always break off and run a few more raids before trying again)



In the actual event White Haven cleared the terminus and used it to quickly reinforce his fleet with a large detachment from Home Fleet -- because those detached ships could get back to Manticore through it long before the Peeps could take advantage of the system's temporary weakness.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:02 pm

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Sigs wrote:The problem with the whole argument that battleships were needed for rear area security makes no sense since there was nothing that those systems has that could have threatened a destroyer let alone a battleship. A battleship doesn't add all that much to internal system security when compared to a destroyer or a light cruiser.Yes a battleship has a battalion of marines on board but in a system with a population in the tens of millions, hundreds of millions or billions of people the battalion would be next to worthless. Keeping a few army or marine divisions in a sector HQ along some CA's and CL's will allow quick responses to anything short of a major system revolt which can be contained at the very least with some destroyers.


You're not exploring the political reasoning.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:21 pm

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Sigs wrote:The ships were available


They were not available. Stop insisting they were.

You can engage in "alternative history" discussions, but please make it clear that you're doing that. If you're trying to analyse what could have been happening in the mainline history, then you have to accept the text and it says those ships were not available.

when the situation changed and the PN started losing ground the comitee should have rubbed two braincells together and come up with the obvious solution of bringing in all of the BB's except a small rear area QRF. Situation changes and the leadership should be able to reassess that situation and make changes. It is overkill that even the most ignorant civilian on the committee should be able to see.


I agree they should have. I agree those ships should have been available. But knowing they weren't available in the beginning, we also have to assume there's a reason they didn't become available later.

More than that, the PN had lots of DNs and SDs that it could have used. And those were not tied down in rear-area defence. Taking a chunk of them out for the Capital Fleet and for the Trevor's Star detachment should have left enough to crush the Alliance's battle fleets. But they were completely MIA themselves too, at least until Operation Stalking Horse.



And that makes no sense, launch an offensive against the Alliance, force a powerful neutral nation into the alliance and then sit back and wait for them to build up their fleet and think up of new technologies. A lot of the books are written so well and make sense then you have this major events that make no sense or make the characters look like absolute clowns that shouldn't be in charge of an ice cream shop let alone a major nation.


Getting the Andermani to join up with the Alliance was definitely not part of the plans. It was not a given it would happen either: there was enough going on between the Manticore and Andermani forces in Silesia that could have sparked open hostilities, like the loss of HMS Jessica Epps. If Honor hadn't personally gone to meet with von Rabenstrage, it might have deteriorated.

Theisman may have objected to stopping short of their true capabilities, and crippling Manticore in one strike. But it wasn't his decision, it was Pritchart's. And I think he was also smart enough to realise that crippling Manticore at this stage would have brought revanchism later on, which is also a reason why the GA didn't go all out on the Solarian League.

This is another example where purely military objectives were not the deciding factor in the decision-making.

Problem with that theory is that the main Committee members were rather intelligent and should be able to figure out that when the navy is losing and begging for more ships keeping battleships in the rear makes no sense. Throughout the series there were plenty of examples when the battleships were used but that only happened in small enough numbers and too late to make a difference.


Intelligent people have blind spots too. Besides, before Esther McQueen, none of the committee members (of which there were more than 3) had military experience. The Committee specifically purged the military and did not want them anywhere near the decision-making centres because the military - especially the Navy - were full of Legislaturalists whose loyalty was in question. That means the Committee did not have military experts to provide data to make decisions.

That means you had a lot of armchair quarterbacks making military decisions.

Plus, the flag officer ranks were completely gutted during the purge. Who was the Committee going to trust with those battleships?


Say I have 160 SD's and 160 BB's defending Trevor's Star and the 10 stars around it. Which makes more sense:

6 Systems have 1 SD and 1 BB squadron, each, 4 have 2 SD and 2 BB squadrons each and Trevors star has 6 SD and 6 BB squadrons

or Trevor's Star having 20 SD squadrons and 20 BB squadrons?


The former, given their understanding of tactics and strategy at the time. Plus, those other systems were likely still somewhat productive, having been annexed only 10-15 years prior.

One splits the forces needlessly and lets them be defeated in detail by a much smaller enemy force, the other surrenders systems that the RHN would lose anyway, keeps the strategically important system under control and frees substantial SD and BB squadrons for offensive operations without endangering the important system.


I hear you, but the decision was not military-only. The military was required to be strong everywhere by their political masters. That led to it being unable to concentrate force.

One scenario has the RMN marching in with 60 SD's and crushing the RHN in battle after battle in small pockets of resistance while the other has the RHN allowing the RMN to capture systems they would have taken anyway, keep a force that would prevent the RMN from taking Trevor's Star and still free up a few dozen SD's ad BB's to go out and make the RMN question their decisions.


Remember also that the Alliance was hard pressed to put together any sort of fleet. Sixth Fleet had what, 2 squadrons of the wall when they attacked Nightingale? 3?

Prior to the outset of the war and the use of pods, the PN probably assumed that keeping 1 battle squadron would give the Alliance pause even at 3:1 superiority. They'd likely win, yes, but they'd be sufficiently damaged that the attrition rate would be in the PN's favour. The PN probably also had more yards, so it thought it could replace ships faster too, despite the RMN building each ship in a shorter time.

After the war started, it was clear that 3:1 in the PN's favour wouldn't be enough. But by this time, the PN was in complete disarray, with no capable flag officer who could pass information to the Octagon, some systems threatening to secede (led by the very admirals who were supposed to protect them), etc. That didn't start to turn until Esther McQueen's ascendancy.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by Jonathan_S   » Mon Nov 11, 2024 11:38 pm

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Sigs wrote:
Jonathan_S wrote:It has occurred to me that use of the BBs might be a tail of two parts.

Legislaturalists
Pre-war the Legislaturalists were too convinced that this would be a short victorious war; and that they therefore seemingly felt they didn't need to run risks by pulling rear area security to bulk up the front line units.

In retrospect that seems wrong. Even if some pulled off successful insurrections (which would be embarrassing, and somewhat disruptive to the economy and war effort) we can see with the benefit of hindsight that it would have been much better to sacrifice control of existing systems to finish defeating Manticore and seizing the Junction. Once Manticore has surrendered your surviving fleet should have plenty of available units and firepower to go recapture those lost systems. (And your economy will be getting a massive infusion of ongoing cash thanks to Junction fees)

But because of the Pierre coup we never got to see how they'd have responded to the losses of their opening attacks. They might well have realized they'd have to run more risks to accomplish their goal and done whatever they needed to to free up additional heavy(ish) units for the front line.

People's Committee
Post coup they immediately purge most of their experienced naval strategists, which disrupted things significantly and probably slowed down their realization of how much expending a bunch of BBs reinforcing the more survivable wallers might help turn the tide.

But also the coup, and the shattering of any pretense of legitimacy of the government, combined with their rein of terror, actually made their rear area security risk vastly higher than likely had been under the previous regime. It'd be a lot easier for to rally local naval units to throw in with an insurrection if you can claim you're fighting against the usurpers. And naval commanders, or system governors, might be fearing that they could be next on the list of purges -- inspiring them to strike first and revolt before the secret police can come for them. So the coup might have actually created additional need to keep BBs for rear area security

Especially as securing those using your initially limited pool of reliable and competent political commissars lets you discourage any other, lighter, naval units in the area from getting any bright ideas until you can scrape up enough people to ensure their political reliability as well. So securing and then continuing to use BBs for rear area security in the unsettled few years after the coup might have been a resource economizing measure (where the limited resource is politically trustworthy crews)

Also, because Pierre lacks legitimacy it's more important to keep systems from breaking away than it was under the Harris administration. For Harris it'd be a bit embarrassing if a conquered system broke free for a little bit; but that wouldn't be likely to change how the core planets of Haven viewed his government. However in the post-coup environment if a few systems manage to break away its far more likely to create a snowball effect of breakaways. After all, with legitimacy shattered there's only force to keep the planets in line -- and if they perceive that Haven now lacks the power to enforce their compliance... Losing a dozen planets, even the more prosperous recent conquests, wouldn't be a body blow to Haven's economy. But if that dozen inspired many dozens more, along with their local (formerly PSN) fleets, pretty soon Pierre doesn't have a country left to run.



The problem with the whole argument that battleships were needed for rear area security makes no sense since there was nothing that those systems has that could have threatened a destroyer let alone a battleship. A battleship doesn't add all that much to internal system security when compared to a destroyer or a light cruiser.Yes a battleship has a battalion of marines on board but in a system with a population in the tens of millions, hundreds of millions or billions of people the battalion would be next to worthless. Keeping a few army or marine divisions in a sector HQ along some CA's and CL's will allow quick responses to anything short of a major system revolt which can be contained at the very least with some destroyers.
Well nothing threatening those systems -- except the threats like Gaston Space Forces ship Dague from EOH* -- until the start of the war. And therein lies the second of my tales.

After the start of the war, and the coup that immediately followed, it's a bit of a different matter with those systems being threatened not only by RMN BC raiding forces but also breakaway ships from the pre-war PRN fleet. Either of those is going to take more than a destroyer to deter or defeat.

And like I pointed out, if you have a shortage of politically reliable crews (as they must have in the immediate post-coup period) it's more efficient use of that limited reliable crew to put them a bigger nastier ship than on a destroyer or cruiser. (the less reliable crews can be put into the bigger fleet formation where a relative few watchdogs can ride herd on them in a way they can if they were detached in small pickets all over the Republic)

---
* The one that "fought a hit-and-run campaign against the Peeps' merchant marine for over a T-year before they finally cornered her" And the easiest place to raid shipping is from within the hyper limit of an undefended system. And I doubt she was the only ship that didn't surrender when her system was captured. Still, while we don't know what weight of ship she was a BB might well have been overkill to deter or drive off such raids. Still, during peacetime they don't have any other use for them; so if you're going to keep them might as well scatter the BBs around in peacekeeping detachments.
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Re: Commerce raiding
Post by penny   » Sat Nov 23, 2024 6:11 pm

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Relax wrote:Upthread someone said commerce raiding is a strategy of weakness? Uh, since when? Are you in a peer competition war or not? If not it is a strategy of weakness by the weaker party, if you are in a peer war, it is the #2 target on any Militaries list right after the navy, as any COMPETANT admiral knows the war will be longer than 7 days... Here the problem was DW said RHN forces did not have enough light ships for commerce raiding :roll:

As Brigade brought up: the books show RHN BB's being used to HOLD DOWN potential revolting systems from Havenite Tyranny.

#1) While RHN BB ~4.5M tonnage is impressive, what is NOT impressive is their age. 100+ year old ships as war fighting secondary ships are not good. Yes, for their time they were missile heavy, but compared to BC's, they are not.
Still better at beam range than a BC.

#2) Haven doesn't have Dreadnaughts(technically a couple of them)

#3) Latest RMN Dreadnaughts are LARGER and more heavily armed than old SD's.

#4) Dreadnaughts have identical armor/weapons as SD's, just slightly smaller.

--Wet navy equivalent is 1st, 2nd, & 3rd rates. Identical armor where only real difference is number of guns carried.

Using ~Billions of dollars to guard millions of dollars of commerce or whatever the ratio is in HV -->> is NOT cost effective and how you lose. Why LOTS and LOTS of light units are used and ultimately why one mass produces commerce ships to begin with. In the grim math of war, they can be lost. Dreadnaughts not so much. Space is vast, you can't be everywhere. In the days of wet navy sailing ships, the same was true. You can't be everywhere even if you are the RN.



Whereas I agree with what you are saying, I have to admit that I thought that Haven felt that they didn't have to waste time raiding commerce.

If a navy feels they are much bigger and more powerful than their enemy, why waste time raiding commerce. For instance, when the RMN finally had the technological edge to defeat Haven with the much longer ranged missiles, why waste that edge on commerce raiding?

I always thought that Haven felt that way about the little gnat whose only silver lining simply happened to be that it was blessed with a junction. In the early series of books, I think that was how Haven felt. The SLN certainly would have thought commerce raiding was beneath them.
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