?

penny wrote:How far out does an insertion by an LD have to be before it won't be seen even by the MBS's sensors? A Tier 1 system?

We don't know for sure -- but it's at least 4 light-weeks.

The arrays at Manticore are said to be:

At All Costs wrote:stupendous arrays. With dimensions measured in thousands of kilometers on a side, they could pick up even the most gradual translation into normal-space at a range of literally light-weeks

Then Storm From the Shadows provides slightly more detail on their size; but not their range -- saying that Manticore's long range sensors were even larger (and more sensitive) than ones "which could measure eight or nine thousand kilometers on a side". Then it reiterates that "No translation, however slow and gentle, could render a hyper footprint too weak to be detected by the sort of arrays covering the Manticore Binary System."


Though it does tell us that the Sharks were detected when they translated in "one light-month out".


So, while we don't know quite how many light-weeks away they can see even the most gentle translations; it's clearly more than 4 -- and presumably enough more that the MAlign didn't find it useful to try to translate beyond its sensor range.
(If it only reached, say, 4.5 light-weeks it might have been a useful tradeoff to accept the less than 12% increase in n-space transit time to avoid any risk of alerting the system)

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:That said, the way the RMN has organized their forces has certainly changed since them -- so it's entirely possible that were current practices applied Parks' force would have been a fleet rather than a task force. That said, I wouldn't call Hancock, or even the three allies it helped cover, Tier 1 because the loss of them might be embarrassing; but the ship losses would be more significant to the war effort than losing any of those systems -- diplomatically it might be a problem if they weren't able to rapidly recapture the system; but it wouldn't be catastrophic to the war effort (not unless the bulk of Parks' fleet fleet was lost or captured without inflicting offsetting losses on the Peep) .

In particular, to locally defend a system, you don't need large fleets any more. You need some mobile units, but you don't need half a dozen squadrons of the wall. You need missiles and Mycroft. With that, no one with less than 500 SD(P)s and a fleet train to re-arm is going to successfully take the system.

Jonathan_S wrote:Though Silver Bullet reiterated the risks of such a defense (and Mistletoe had highlighted them already).

Squadrons of the wall are more flexible and less likely to get taken out by armed RDs sneaking around.

OTOH missile pods and LACs are relatively cheap -- so minor systems are likely to have far stronger (if somewhat brittle) defenses than they had before.

Indeed Jonathan! That is going to be the GA's downfall. This is not a traditional navy employing traditional tactics. And stealth is a force multiplier.

Actually the g-torp and Oyster Bay showed the flaws in that logic.

And I tried to show the problem way back in the Attacking Darius thread about counting on system defence pods against an entity that cannot be seen. Missiles are not clairvoyant.

Jonathan_S wrote:

penny wrote:How far out does an insertion by an LD have to be before it won't be seen even by the MBS's sensors? A Tier 1 system?

We don't know for sure -- but it's at least 4 light-weeks.

The arrays at Manticore are said to be:

At All Costs wrote:stupendous arrays. With dimensions measured in thousands of kilometers on a side, they could pick up even the most gradual translation into normal-space at a range of literally light-weeks

Then Storm From the Shadows provides slightly more detail on their size; but not their range -- saying that Manticore's long range sensors were even larger (and more sensitive) than ones "which could measure eight or nine thousand kilometers on a side". Then it reiterates that "No translation, however slow and gentle, could render a hyper footprint too weak to be detected by the sort of arrays covering the Manticore Binary System."


Though it does tell us that the Sharks were detected when they translated in "one light-month out".


So, while we don't know quite how many light-weeks away they can see even the most gentle translations; it's clearly more than 4 -- and presumably enough more that the MAlign didn't find it useful to try to translate beyond its sensor range.
(If it only reached, say, 4.5 light-weeks it might have been a useful tradeoff to accept the less than 12% increase in n-space transit time to avoid any risk of alerting the system)

Didn't find it useful or didn't find it necessary. Brigade_XO reminded us upstream that the Sharks were used as a test bed. A test bed for the insertion. And a test bed for the g-torp.

I find it difficult to believe that an entity and navy with so much patience would find it more than simply an annoyance to accept a n-space travel of even two years to prosecute a war! That means that Tier 1 systems have an expiration date of SOON!*

Again, the strategy and tactics are inherently very different for the MAN. It does not matter if it will even take two years for an insertion if that insertion is huge! Look what it took for the GA to tangle with Galton, who had none of the major toys it could have had. And the goodies it did have were limited. And the GA knew there was a battle coming because they were the attackers.

Do consider that when the MAN attacks Tier 1 systems, those systems will have been ambushed and surprised. Again, surprise alone is a force multiplier!

*Oh my god, now I know what the author meant in his cryptic reply about the LDs not being ready. The LDs are ready! They are simply in the midst of a very long journey somewhere in n-space. And we do realize that an assault against several targets in the galaxy does not have to commence at exactly the same time as it does when one or more forces are planning to attack the same target as different prongs of attack. (SEE Filareta and Tsang.) I fully expect the streak drive to be deployed to solve the two generals problem. Here the attacks can simply commence within a few days of each other to counter panic buttons sending Case Zulus.

penny wrote:I find it difficult to believe that an entity and navy with so much patience would find it more than simply an annoyance to accept a n-space travel of even two years to prosecute a war! That means that Tier 1 systems have an expiration date of SOON!

If the MAN is attacking a major Tier 1 planet, then why does it need a silent entry? Unless you think the initial attack can destroy all opposition, anything after the first explosion is going to rely on stealth and not surprise. Maybe just enter far enough out, so that the attacking fleet can be significantly far away when an investigation force comes out (that is not in radar range of the entry point) and then proceed from there.

An interesting discussion; but I am more curious what way the author is going to go, since he is quoted as saying the next follow-on book(s) will introduce Honor's children. Also he has a Detweiler saying they need more than ten years to get the plan back on track. Any military action in the next several years will mean that Galton really was sacrificed for nothing

penny wrote:I find it difficult to believe that an entity and navy with so much patience would find it more than simply an annoyance to accept a n-space travel of even two years to prosecute a war! That means that Tier 1 systems have an expiration date of SOON!*

For what it's worth, even with emerging only 1 light-month from Manticore it still took the MAN Task Group 1.1 four months to travel from Mesa to their weapons launch point 1 light-week outside of Manticore. (And then, based on their velocity it took the weapons another 4-5 weeks to coast into launch position. So this was already a 5+ month attack; not counting the return trip)

(Now why the super secret Sharks departed from Mesa, as opposed to Darius where they were built I've no earthly idea)

On the other hand, maybe you're right and they'd be willing to spend 3 times as long if it could remove even the minor risk they ran coming after Manticore. But since they didn't spend longer, well that implies that even adding nearly 7 months to their n-space transit, potentially pushing their arrival point out to about 1 light-year, wouldn't have save them that risk.

(Personally I don't think Manticore's sensors can see anywhere near that far, and that at least for Oyster Bay the MAlign wasn't willing to spend longer to further reduce their risks)



And for future attacks, given a finite number of ships, if you're willing to accept a slightly riskier flight profile that lets each attack complete in 6 months instead of 1 year then you can hit twice as many systems a year; and better keep your opponent off balance.

Because a slower pace gives your enemy lots of time to work out countermeasures - and it's almost always the first use of a new weapon that's its most effective; before the enemy it aware of it and can start planning countermeasures.

Jonathan_S wrote:Now why the super secret Sharks departed from Mesa, as opposed to Darius where they were built I've no earthly idea.

I first thought you were wrong, but Albrecht Detweiler traveled to Darius in Mission of Honor to watch their return. In Storm from the Shadows he was watching the departure from Benjamin's yacht and the two of them could get back home for dinner than evening.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I find it difficult to believe that an entity and navy with so much patience would find it more than simply an annoyance to accept a n-space travel of even two years to prosecute a war! That means that Tier 1 systems have an expiration date of SOON!

If the MAN is attacking a major Tier 1 planet, then why does it need a silent entry? Unless you think the initial attack can destroy all opposition, anything after the first explosion is going to rely on stealth and not surprise. Maybe just enter far enough out, so that the attacking fleet can be significantly far away when an investigation force comes out (that is not in radar range of the entry point) and then proceed from there.

An interesting discussion; but I am more curious what way the author is going to go, since he is quoted as saying the next follow-on book(s) will introduce Honor's children. Also he has a Detweiler saying they need more than ten years to get the plan back on track. Any military action in the next several years will mean that Galton really was sacrificed for nothing

A silent entry to protect the element of surprise and to prevent a Case Zulu. And you guessed it and I have always preached it; the MAN is the only navy who has the possibility of a short victorious war. But for a short victorious war, they do not need the galaxy to know that the British are coming when the British are coming.

penny wrote:A silent entry to protect the element of surprise and to prevent a Case Zulu. And you guessed it and I have always preached it; the MAN is the only navy who has the possibility of a short victorious war. But for a short victorious war, they do not need the galaxy to know that the British are coming when the British are coming.

Which means you truly believe everything, from the forts at the wormhole (assuming Manticore is the target) to all space stations to home fleet and on to any hyper vessel in the system that has a recorder (including all freighters) can be destroyed in a first strike. That is the only way to prevent news spreading.

I doubt that complete a sweep can be made. But fine, we will see.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:A silent entry to protect the element of surprise and to prevent a Case Zulu. And you guessed it and I have always preached it; the MAN is the only navy who has the possibility of a short victorious war. But for a short victorious war, they do not need the galaxy to know that the British are coming when the British are coming.

Which means you truly believe everything, from the forts at the wormhole (assuming Manticore is the target) to all space stations to home fleet and on to any hyper vessel in the system that has a recorder (including all freighters) can be destroyed in a first strike. That is the only way to prevent news spreading.

I doubt that complete a sweep can be made. But fine, we will see.

Of course news is going to spread. That cannot be prevented. The MAN does not want the news to precede the operation. That is why the SLN feels that Beowulf was bad. Very very bad. Fighters do not want to telegraph their punches.

Of course, the MAN won't be successful. The battlefield is not level. The MAN has a fly in its ointment and a spy in its midst who is playing dirty for the other team because he is sleeping with the enemy. The author.

The author has been sleeping with Honor Harrington for years. Sharon knows that David went to bed with Honor on his mind for decades. Still going to bed with her.



Close your eyes. Well go on.

Imagine the battle of Galton.
Now imagine it with Galton having all the toys.
Imagine those toys are plentiful.
Now imagine it is Galton who is attacking.
Now imagine it is all going down in the MBS.
Imagine everyone is unaware it is about to go down.
Imagine it is going down all over the galaxy.
Imagine the LDs.

Now imagine it is going down in each system without the GA present.

Get the picture? Every attack does not need to be successful. Just enough where a mop can do the rest.

penny wrote:Again, the strategy and tactics are inherently very different for the MAN. It does not matter if it will even take two years for an insertion if that insertion is huge! Look what it took for the GA to tangle with Galton, who had none of the major toys it could have had. And the goodies it did have were limited. And the GA knew there was a battle coming because they were the attackers.

It still means a 3-year trip for that ship, during which time everything in the Galaxy can change and those ships are not available to any other missions. Unlike SSBNs, they are not in contact with their Admiralty. Any message going to them is a mission abort.

If anyone has the patience, it should be them. So this could be done. I just don't think the MAN strategists would accept such a plan, because the cost is too high and relies on keeping the stealth all the way to target, with again little upside. They cannot take all the system's navy ships in one pass (they can't know where those ships will be); the stations will likely be keeping minimal bubblewalls up and there will be random patrols of recon drones.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

penny wrote:Again, the strategy and tactics are inherently very different for the MAN. It does not matter if it will even take two years for an insertion if that insertion is huge! Look what it took for the GA to tangle with Galton, who had none of the major toys it could have had. And the goodies it did have were limited. And the GA knew there was a battle coming because they were the attackers.

It still means a 3-year trip for that ship, during which time everything in the Galaxy can change and those ships are not available to any other missions. Unlike SSBNs, they are not in contact with their Admiralty. Any message going to them is a mission abort.

If anyone has the patience, it should be them. So this could be done. I just don't think the MAN strategists would accept such a plan, because the cost is too high and relies on keeping the stealth all the way to target, with again little upside. They cannot take all the system's navy ships in one pass (they can't know where those ships will be); the stations will likely be keeping minimal bubblewalls up and there will be random patrols of recon drones.

3-year trip? Please elaborate. I suggested one year. At most.