Spoilers - Toll of Honor

tlb wrote:I do not remember any mention of hidden Andermani yards.

There is no mention of it. This is my conclusion based on the fact that Theisman, NavInt and the RHN Admiralty knew that the IAN Adler-class SD(P)s existed but couldn't find them. We know at this time that they were being refitted to integrate Keyhole II.

Where were they being refitted? It wasn't in any of the known Andermani yards, because Havenite spies would have seen them. It couldn't have been the Blackbird or Manticore-A yards either, for the same reason.

Could it have been HMS Weyland, in Manticore-B? We know the old PRN did not see the construction of HMS Minotaur there nor the working up of the CLACs. Though it seems they failed to see the construction of all Medusa- and Honor Harrington-class SD(P)s in all of the yards, so this doesn't give me a good impression of their capabilities. Under Pierre's regime, was the old NavInt folded into State Sec? That would explain.

Would Weyland have enough capacity to refit the Adlers in the first place? This would have been at the same time as the Python Lump was being worked on, so it doesn't seem likely. And it doesn't seem likely that Theisman's NavInt would be completely fooled by Manticore-B's exclusion zone.

If it was one of the yards that NavInt would have known about but not been able to get eyes on, Theisman might have mentioned it. We didn't get enough conversations between him and Pritchart to be sure, but there was some.

At All Costs, ch. 54 wrote:"Fourth, there's the Andermani. The Manties and Graysons have lost about twenty superdreadnoughts—twelve of them pod-layers—since Thunderbolt wrapped up. That's about seven percent of their total podnoughts. But the Andies are still out there somewhere and, so far, we've seen very few of their capital ships. There are at least a couple of squadrons of them assigned to the Manties' Home Fleet, but that's about it. By our estimates, they should have somewhere around a hundred and twenty pod-layers by now—just about a third of the Manticoran Alliance's total—and we haven't seen them yet. We know they weren't at Trevor's Star, and intelligence suggest there's still some technical problem with them. We know they were conducting a major refit program on the Andy wallers, and we're assuming that explains their continued absence. But it's possible more of them will come forward before we launch Beatrice."

It's possible RFC hasn't thought this through. He used the Keyhole II refit as a means to keep the balance of forces in favour of the Havenites and as a plot device to force the choice of Beatrice. But the possibly-unintended consequence is that he created a shipyard where those refits were happening that the Theisman didn't know about.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There is no mention of it. This is my conclusion based on the fact that Theisman, NavInt and the RHN Admiralty knew that the IAN Adler-class SD(P)s existed but couldn't find them. We know at this time that they were being refitted to integrate Keyhole II.

Where were they being refitted? It wasn't in any of the known Andermani yards, because Havenite spies would have seen them. It couldn't have been the Blackbird or Manticore-A yards either, for the same reason.

Could it have been HMS Weyland, in Manticore-B? We know the old PRN did not see the construction of HMS Minotaur there nor the working up of the CLACs. Though it seems they failed to see the construction of all Medusa- and Honor Harrington-class SD(P)s in all of the yards, so this doesn't give me a good impression of their capabilities. Under Pierre's regime, was the old NavInt folded into State Sec? That would explain.

Would Weyland have enough capacity to refit the Adlers in the first place? This would have been at the same time as the Python Lump was being worked on, so it doesn't seem likely. And it doesn't seem likely that Theisman's NavInt would be completely fooled by Manticore-B's exclusion zone.

If it was one of the yards that NavInt would have known about but not been able to get eyes on, Theisman might have mentioned it. We didn't get enough conversations between him and Pritchart to be sure, but there was some.

At All Costs, ch. 54 wrote:"Fourth, there's the Andermani. The Manties and Graysons have lost about twenty superdreadnoughts—twelve of them pod-layers—since Thunderbolt wrapped up. That's about seven percent of their total podnoughts. But the Andies are still out there somewhere and, so far, we've seen very few of their capital ships. There are at least a couple of squadrons of them assigned to the Manties' Home Fleet, but that's about it. By our estimates, they should have somewhere around a hundred and twenty pod-layers by now—just about a third of the Manticoran Alliance's total—and we haven't seen them yet. We know they weren't at Trevor's Star, and intelligence suggest there's still some technical problem with them. We know they were conducting a major refit program on the Andy wallers, and we're assuming that explains their continued absence. But it's possible more of them will come forward before we launch Beatrice."

It's possible RFC hasn't thought this through. He used the Keyhole II refit as a means to keep the balance of forces in favour of the Havenites and as a plot device to force the choice of Beatrice. But the possibly-unintended consequence is that he created a shipyard where those refits were happening that the Theisman didn't know about.

Though I suppose it's not impossible for this passage to be a combination of slightly sloppy speaking plus very different communication lags.

By sloppy speaking I mean when he said "we haven't seen them yet" he might not literally have meant that intelligence had lost track of them; just that they hadn't been seen on the front lines. That no reports of them had come back from his fleets.

After all they had gotten the intelligence that they were conduction a major refit on them.


If, say, it takes 8 months* for updates from the Peep's HUMINT to covertly make their way from Manticore to Haven, but dispatches from the fleets arrive in 3-6 weeks, then it's possible that Theisman had intel on them going into known yards 9 or 10 months ago. Intelligence estimated that the major refit would take, say, 4 months, so he'd have expected to start seeing dispatches sent from his fleets 4-5 months ago (so received roughly 3-4 months ago).

There might still be HUMINT reports that the Andie wallers are still in those (known) yards but they're still making their way through the slow covert communication channels between Manticore and Haven. So Theisman is caught by information lag -- he potentially knows which yards were doing the work, has reports from agents of when the ships entered the yards, based on that has an estimate from Peep Intel on when a major refit should be done, but his latest received HUMINT reports predate Intel's estimate of completion, and the faster** reports from his fleets don't include any mention of them.

Sure those SD(P)s might still be stuck in the yards, something he mentions as a possibility (and something we know is true), but without having current intel that they are he has to consider the possibility that they're combat ready but being readied for some major surprise (and the Peeps are probably still a bit gun shy over Buttercup; biasing him into that concern)

But that's just speculation. It's possible this work was done at some yard the Peeps are unaware of (or at least can't get reports from). I'm just saying that his phrasing doesn't necessarily require that to be true.

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* And IIRC it's still nearly a month with a dispatch boat that's able to use Trevor's Star as a shortcut. So 8 times that for communications that need to be covert doesn't seem unreasonable.

** After all his fleets are (mostly) closer than Manticore and they can use dispatch boats or destroyers to race updates back to Haven ASAP.

Jonathan_S wrote:Though I suppose it's not impossible for this passage to be a combination of slightly sloppy speaking plus very different communication lags.

By sloppy speaking I mean when he said "we haven't seen them yet" he might not literally have meant that intelligence had lost track of them; just that they hadn't been seen on the front lines. That no reports of them had come back from his fleets.

I don't think he'd be that imprecise when briefing the president about launching Beatrice. He's talking about a major risk to the operation here. If he had knowledge on where they had been a few months ago, he probably would have said so.

If, say, it takes 8 months* for updates from the Peep's HUMINT to covertly make their way from Manticore to Haven, but dispatches from the fleets arrive in 3-6 weeks, then it's possible that Theisman had intel on them going into known yards 9 or 10 months ago. Intelligence estimated that the major refit would take, say, 4 months, so he'd have expected to start seeing dispatches sent from his fleets 4-5 months ago (so received roughly 3-4 months ago).

Another passage from AAC is that the refit takes 8 to 10 weeks (answering to penny's question about the GA members knowing where this yard is: Manticore likely knew it before, there's no reason not to share with Haven now).

At All Costs, ch. 52 wrote:"Why is that?" Grantville asked. "I thought the pods were the same dimensions?"

"They are, but only the ships built with Keyhole capability from the outset can handle the Mark Two platforms, and they're essential to making the new missiles work. We can refit with Keyhole II—in fact, the decision to build that in is part of what's delayed the Andermani refits—but it requires placing the ship in the yard hands for at least eight to ten weeks."

There are two data points in that passage: 1) the refit of existing ships takes 8 to 10 weeks, and 2) the new ships are being built with Keyhole II from the start, but that delayed their construction (presumably for less than that amount of time).

The discussion follows that only Eighth Fleet is equipped to handle Apollo and has had time to train with them. That implies the IAN ships aren't ready yet and their formations haven't trained much with them either (I think that's what Honor was doing out of the Trevor's Star terminus when the Battle of Manticore started).

So your Maths doesn't work that well. Moreover, the Andermani wouldn't have had all their ships inside closed-door yards for this entire period. Some of them would be out of the yards and working up; some others would be near the yards and waiting on their turn to go in. So I find it hard to believe his HUMINT didn't see those ships.

There might still be HUMINT reports that the Andie wallers are still in those (known) yards but they're still making their way through the slow covert communication channels between Manticore and Haven. So Theisman is caught by information lag -- he potentially knows which yards were doing the work, has reports from agents of when the ships entered the yards, based on that has an estimate from Peep Intel on when a major refit should be done, but his latest received HUMINT reports predate Intel's estimate of completion, and the faster** reports from his fleets don't include any mention of them.

Possible. You're saying that he's telling Pritchart "we think they're out of the yards and therefore could be making an appearance in Manticore when Giscard comes to visit?"

I still think that if that if he thought this was likely, he'd have said so. He'd have said that there could be 120 wallers more that his NavInt would have estimated to be ready for deployment. His phrasing sounds like he doesn't know when they'll turn up at all.

Is he telling Pritchart what he thinks she should know in order to make the decision he thinks she should make? It doesn't sound like him -- he wants the president to make such a momentous decision, not the military -- but it could be subconscious bias of his.

Sure those SD(P)s might still be stuck in the yards, something he mentions as a possibility (and something we know is true), but without having current intel that they are he has to consider the possibility that they're combat ready but being readied for some major surprise (and the Peeps are probably still a bit gun shy over Buttercup; biasing him into that concern)

Indeed and he is actually briefing her on the dangers of uncovering so much of the Republic by moving so many ships of theirs. He's briefing her that the other danger is not that the Andy ships will be in Manticore, but that they will not and thus will not be destroyed, thus will be free to attack the Republic.

Though this actually removes Manticore-B as the place they could be being refit at. He's just briefed Pritchart that if Giscard can face Home Fleet, Third Fleet, and Eighth Fleet separately, he can defeat them in detail, and thus take out the infrastructure in the MBS and/or force an immediate surrender. In that case, he wouldn't worry about the IAN ships, because they'd be captured.

But that's just speculation. It's possible this work was done at some yard the Peeps are unaware of (or at least can't get reports from). I'm just saying that his phrasing doesn't necessarily require that to be true.

"Can't get report from" might be sufficient, actually. If it's in a system that sees very little civilian / commercial traffic, it would be hard to plant spies in.

* And IIRC it's still nearly a month with a dispatch boat that's able to use Trevor's Star as a shortcut. So 8 times that for communications that need to be covert doesn't seem unreasonable.

It's only about 2-3 months via hyper from Manticore to Haven. There are diplomatic DBs going around at this time.

One more datum: when Honor deployed to Silesia and set up shop in the Marsh system, her ships were constantly being harassed by the IAN, like the encounter of HMS Jessica Epps with IANS Hellbarde. Those IAN ships had heretofore unseen capabilities that only the RMN and GSN had had.

It comes as no surprise that the Andermani were spying on the RMN and had quickly adopted everything they could get their hands on. But the RMN had not expected it this soon and had not seen the ships being built.

Of course, during the first war, the Alliance intel would not be focusing on the Andermani -- just enough to make sure they didn't attempt to expand at the expense of Manticore. And after the war, Jurgensen was Second Lord and in charge of the RMN ONI. If he had had reports from the Andermani, he did not share with Honor, but I don't think he even had that, because Janacek and High Ridge wanted Honor out of the way, not starting a war with the Andermani.

The Grayson spies had not known this either, and Protector Benjamin was plugged in enough to have sent the Protector's Own in "exercises" that happened to be very close to Marsh.

Either way, whether known or unknown, the IAN has access to at least two major yards.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:I didn't forget the Andermani. I recalled they decided to stay out of the Alliance, for reasons I cannot recall. They probably did not want to become a target. But now that you all mention it, the Andermani did offer to at least assist with infrastructure, etc. I don't know why they'd think that would be the definition of remaining neutral.

Is their hidden yard(s) still classified to Haven, Grayson and Manticore? If so, why? OpSec in the face of the MAN?

It was decided to leave them out of the battle with the Solarian League, even though they had participated in the fighting against Haven; because at that point everyone knew the extra force was not needed. But I am quite sure that they were included in the attack on Galton.

I do not remember any mention of hidden Andermani yards.

Ah! Thanks.

I don't remember any hidden yards either but assumed it was simply another memo I'd missed.

But the reason I enquired whether the Alliance knew is because, well IINM, I remember Honor (I think) speculating about the Andermani's order of battle during the Hellbarde -Epps incident and there was no mention of any hidden yards; which would have surely skewed any order of battle estimates. Of course, the hidden yard could be new; relatively new, but that doesn't seem to be the case if I am following the discussion correctly.

But if the alliance still doesn't know then one would have to wonder why? And the fact that nobody has mentioned it outright without beating around the bush seems to indicate ignorance. Of course, somehow the RMN failed to pick up on Bolthole too.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote:At any rate, this passage got me thinking. After Oyster Bay, the RMN was dependent on Beowulf for production. But who kept the Alliance's existing ships serviced? Shouldn't that responsibility have severely hampered Beowulf's production abilities? Come on, Beowulf would have had to refit, repair, maintain and produce weapons and systems for the entire Alliance. I just didn't think Beowulf had that kind of infrastructure at the time.

The RMN still had many repair ships, like the one Warnecke had at Sidemore in Honor Among Enemies. Also Haven's facilities became available soon afterwards, but I expect that rebuilding shipyards for repair was a high priority.

Note that ending the war with Haven resulted in the return of many captured shipyard workers.

I didn't think those workers, most of them anyway since they had been there so long, could impact the shortage anytime soon. Didn't they themselves, while on Camp Charon, discuss with Honor how much they were behind the times?

In the short run I didn't think those repatriates would be good for anything beyond "Pass me an 8 millimeter socket wrench." "What's a millimeter???"

Too much? Well, you get the point.

penny wrote: Of course, somehow the RMN failed to pick up on Bolthole too.

The High Ridge government may not of known of Bolthole, but as of Chapter 18 of War of Honor Grayson knew and knew that Shannon Foraker was in charge:

"We don't know," Benjamin admitted, "but we have two straws in the wind, as it were. One is the existence of some top-secret project, one that was apparently launched under the Committee as much as several years before the McQueen Coup but which has been continued under Pritchart and Theisman. All we know about it for certain is its codename: 'Bolthole.' That, and the fact that Pierre and Saint-Just funneled huge amounts of money into whatever it is even at the height of the war and despite their worst financial problems. We don't have confirmation that Pritchart and Theisman have continued the same level of funding, but the discrepancy between what their revenues ought to be and what they're reporting certainly seems to suggest that some 'black project' is continuing to siphon off an awful lot of cash.

"That's straw number one. Straw number two is the name of the one officer our sources have been able to identify as being closely associated with whatever 'Bolthole' is since Theisman's little revolution. I believe you know her."

"I do?" Honor was startled and it showed.

"Oh, indeed you do," Benjamin said with something almost like grim amusement. "Her name is Vice Admiral Shannon Foraker."

penny wrote:I didn't think those workers, most of them anyway since they had been there so long, could impact the shortage anytime soon. Didn't they themselves, while on Camp Charon, discuss with Honor how much they were behind the times?

I am talking about the workers captured at Grendelsbane, who were current as of the attacks that ended the High Ridge government.

tlb wrote:

penny wrote: Of course, somehow the RMN failed to pick up on Bolthole too.

The High Ridge government may not of known of Bolthole, but as of Chapter 18 of War of Honor Grayson knew and knew that Shannon Foraker was in charge:

"We don't know," Benjamin admitted, "but we have two straws in the wind, as it were. One is the existence of some top-secret project, one that was apparently launched under the Committee as much as several years before the McQueen Coup but which has been continued under Pritchart and Theisman. All we know about it for certain is its codename: 'Bolthole.' That, and the fact that Pierre and Saint-Just funneled huge amounts of money into whatever it is even at the height of the war and despite their worst financial problems. We don't have confirmation that Pritchart and Theisman have continued the same level of funding, but the discrepancy between what their revenues ought to be and what they're reporting certainly seems to suggest that some 'black project' is continuing to siphon off an awful lot of cash.

"That's straw number one. Straw number two is the name of the one officer our sources have been able to identify as being closely associated with whatever 'Bolthole' is since Theisman's little revolution. I believe you know her."

"I do?" Honor was startled and it showed.

"Oh, indeed you do," Benjamin said with something almost like grim amusement. "Her name is Vice Admiral Shannon Foraker."

Thanks for the passage. It is one of my favorites. The glow of very bright light reflecting off the brass Shannon Foraker is now wearing casts a cloud of darkness over the RMN. Honor knew that.

But yeah, Grayson figured out something was awry. But at that point it was already too late. And again, it was compounded by High Ridge's alienation of Grayson's affections. Like I said, the alliance didn't or couldn't, officially anyway, share Intel.

Good point tlb. That passage makes me smile.

But another reason I was ready to believe there was a hidden yard is because for so long the tension between Manticore and the Andermani was building to a feverish pitch. As a reader I thought war between Manticore and the Andermani was imminent. So, in light of that tension, a hidden yard would have made strategic sense. Especially since the Andermani and Haven were somewhat friendly and IINM, allies to some extent.


.

penny wrote:But another reason I was ready to believe there was a hidden yard is because for so long the tension between Manticore and the Andermani was building to a feverish pitch. As a reader I thought war between Manticore and the Andermani was imminent. So, in light of that tension, a hidden yard would have made strategic sense. Especially since the Andermani and Haven were somewhat friendly and IINM, allies to some extent.

And as I said, Hellbarde's capabilities came as a surprise to the crew of the Jessica Epps and Honor.

Now, it's quite clear that the RMN ONI at the time was not on the ball, so we can't unfortunately read too much into it.

penny wrote:But another reason I was ready to believe there was a hidden yard is because for so long the tension between Manticore and the Andermani was building to a feverish pitch. As a reader I thought war between Manticore and the Andermani was imminent. So, in light of that tension, a hidden yard would have made strategic sense. Especially since the Andermani and Haven were somewhat friendly and IINM, allies to some extent.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And as I said, Hellbarde's capabilities came as a surprise to the crew of the Jessica Epps and Honor.

Now, it's quite clear that the RMN ONI at the time was not on the ball, so we can't unfortunately read too much into it.

There was a faction of the Andermani that wanted to settle the Silesia question by war. They were being encouraged by Haven, but there was never the hint of alliance. Also the Andermani, particularly the Emperor, were said to be skeptical of republics. So using Honor's previous acquaintance with the Emperor's cousin allowed a quick resolution to the problem, which would not have been the case if the Emperor really had been inclined toward conflict. The Andermani leadership was also said to be conflict adverse, unless there were clear gains to be made.