penny wrote:Well… just to remain true to mineself, a penny's worth of my thoughts.
Why do we get only half the usual rate?
The MA is not a traditional navy, but y’all keep insisting on judging what they may or may not do upon that flawed assumption that they are a traditional navy, or that they think like a traditional navy even though they have proved from the onset that the traditional ways of thinking, the strategy and even the tactics, must be thrown in the garbage.
The MA cannot afford to meet even a single member of the GA on the GA's terms, much less the entire GA. Even though I have insisted that the RFN will attack alongside the MAN when the shit hits the fan — and that the RFN will not be the paper tiger the SLN turned out to be — does not mean the MAN will wage a traditional war. The MAN needs every advantage they can get.
Agreed.
But just a note that unless the RFN is getting armed from a hidden location, the GA will have good intel on the RFN's capabilities. So not a paper tiger, but also not an unknown tiger.
If the RFN is getting armed from elsewhere, then that removes the distinction between the RFN and the MAN. At that point, we should simply argue that the MAN has a conventional, impeller component to their order of battle.
Sure, no traditional navy saw any need or benefit to approach hyper warfare as a norm or saw that it was worthwhile. But the MA is no traditional navy whose technology is nowhere near traditional. As a matter of fact, the very fact that no other navy would expect an enemy to go all in on an unorthodox state sponsored strategy of commerce raiding in hyper is the very reason it could work. It could completely throw the GA off balance if they began losing ships and commerce and valuable officers in hyper.
And if the MA successfully attacks freighters in hyper delivering crucial materials for the war effort, the GA could become seriously hamstrung.
I don't think the MAN cannot attack enough freighters serving the GA's military requirements to significantly disrupt the production pipeline. At any point in time, the majority of the matériel is not in shipping between the production systems. And even of what is in transit, a measurable loss would be noticed and cause a shift in patterns, bigger escorts, etc.
Moreover, the biggest nexus of production is the Manticore Binary System, Trevor's Star, and Beowulf. There's usually no hyperspace travel between any of those components. Therefore, a hyperspace attack tactic would not affect any of this at all.
Now, if you couple a sudden attack on freighters with an attack on stored supplies in the systems as well as the production lines (à la Oyster Bay), that changes things.
And yet, I don't think we'll see a massive hyperspace interception at all. First, Physics: in-universe, it's highly unlikely to generate an interception outside of very few stable points where ships must pass through. Second, the author's bias for the HV: it doesn't look like it's where he wants to take the writing.
Or, if it is a byproduct of the capabilities of their technology, period. For instance, y’all are considering commerce raiding in hyper executed in the traditional way. Counting on potluck. But. The MA enjoys unprecedented stealth. Their strategy can send ‘hyper raiders’ directly into the enemy’s system and follow their targets into hyper.
For some reason, it appears that one can't follow ships into hyper. RFC hasn't explained why (there may be some hints in the Long Manoeuvre), but every time a ship translates up, it effectively evades action and can't be re-acquired.
Of course, he's free to change that and allow MAN ships to do so. But why would they? Why not stay in-system, even after a flaming datum has showed up in the sensors of the defenders?
The problem of leaving is that it takes weeks at a minimum to re-insert to repeat the operation. Taking one freighter every two months, however valuable, seems like a waste of warship. Maybe if it could do that to a convoy, so that it could take out half a dozen ships in one go.
But here's a better tactic that they could use with their stealth: attach a bomb to the freighter(s). They can get close enough that launching a drone with the bomb should be doable. The drone doesn't need endurance nor does it need the spider drive: a simple, very low power wedge would suffice to catch up with a freighter that is decelerating anyway to make transition. Attach a dozen bombs to the hull of the freighter, set them on a timer, then rinse and repeat.
And if the MA has improved their sensor technology in hyper giving them an edge on GA sensors, then Bob's still ur Uncle. And do remember, I have always suggested that the MA’s sensors could turn out to be better than the GA’s at the end of the day, just in time for the opening phases of war. Since the MAN's stealth is better, then their sensor development might have benefitted. And since the MA is traveling in higher hyper bands where particle density is even higher, then their sensor suites could be marginally better, in hyper.
See Jonathan's reply why "marginally better" is not enough. "Significantly better" would not be enough either. They'd need a revolutionary improvement in hyperspace sensors.
And even if it has happened, they need to generate an intercept on ships that are likely travelling at 0.5c.
Higher acceleration and higher top speed in hyper along with marginally better sensors with the ability to follow targets into hyper ‘translates’ into a possible commerce raiding strategy available to the enemy.
Where did you find higher acceleration? Right now, the best acceleration is in the hands of the GA, with their improved nodes and compensators.
Higher top speed could help. But we'd be talking about a days-long stern chase. Is that a good use of resources?