Russian “False-Flag” operations in the Ukraine

I guess that at some point a mediator will be needed!
Personally I don’t foresee the need for one, until one of the sides has been bloodied enough to agree to sit down without pre-conditions.
A time at which someone with a leg in both camps might come in handy!
But who’s to say that the someone might be Erdogan?
He’s got an iffy election coming up in in mid May.
With the families, friends and relatives of 80,000 dead earthquake victims, together with the tenants of over 150,000 destroyed housing and places of business, all looking for someone to scapegoat![/quote]

Good point If politicians want the credit when things go wrong it is only fair that they get the credit when things go wrong. Don't expect the result to be an improvement however.

Don

-[/quote]
One can hope that Erdogan will end up paying the piper!
Especially if Kemal Kilicdaroglu; and the broad coalition of parties supporting him, manages to toss him and his AKP party out of power in todays election.

https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey- ... mir-putin/

Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.

“Keep Your Friends Close; and Your Enemies Closer”
It was apparently Sun Tzu who hit the nail on the head, as to why NATO; pragmatics and real politik considerations aside, hasn’t booted Turkey out of the alliance!
I ask as a layman, can it really be sane for what is essentially a military alliance, to have one of its members, so cozy with the very same potential enemy, it was created and still exist to protect against?

The latest boast from Wagner that they have conquered Bahkmut reminds me of the old story of "the mice have gained the cheese"
When will the trap close?

Arol wrote:https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-special-relationship-russia-grow-recep-tayyip-erdogan-valdimir-putin/

Erdoğan: I have a ‘special relationship’ with Putin — and it’s only growing
‘Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible,’ says Turkish president.

“Keep Your Friends Close; and Your Enemies Closer”
It was apparently Sun Tzu who hit the nail on the head, as to why NATO; pragmatics and real politik considerations aside, hasn’t booted Turkey out of the alliance!
I ask as a layman, can it really be sane for what is essentially a military alliance, to have one of its members, so cozy with the very same potential enemy, it was created and still exist to protect against?

While I love to have Sweden join NATO and am really put out with Erdogan for blocking them I am sorry to have to say that Turkey is far, far more important for NATO than Sweden is. Turkey is located in an extremely important geographic and strategic position. With it controlling the Dardanelles and passage to and from the Black Sea, seperating and shielding Europe from the Middle East on the one hand and being a significant military power on Russia's southern frontier. Rather have Turkey as an ally even if its an obstinate and currently not totally trustworthy one. Also I bet that at some point in the not too distant future Turkey will have to relent. They have too many problems for me to believe they will be able to afford this idiocy indefinitely. We'll have to be patient and put up with this nonsense for a while I am afraid. But in the end we'll have both countries in NATO.

Bruno Behrends wrote:While I love to have Sweden join NATO and am really put out with Erdogan for blocking them I am sorry to have to say that Turkey is far, far more important for NATO than Sweden is. Turkey is located in an extremely important geographic and strategic position. With it controlling the Dardanelles and passage to and from the Black Sea, separating and shielding Europe from the Middle East on the one hand and being a significant military power on Russia's southern frontier. Rather have Turkey as an ally even if its an obstinate and currently not totally trustworthy one. Also I bet that at some point in the not too distant future Turkey will have to relent. They have too many problems for me to believe they will be able to afford this idiocy indefinitely. We'll have to be patient and put up with this nonsense for a while I am afraid. But in the end we'll have both countries in NATO.

On the face of it, you are certainly correct in saying that Sweden by itself, (I’m being pragmatic and realistic), is of less importance then Turkey. But looking at the whole picture, if (Big “if“ I know!) Sweden was a NATO member, the Baltic would then be composed of a solid core of NATO countries. By blackballing Sweden’s application Erdogan is playing Putin’s game by putting a chip in that wall!
Your outline of Turkey’s importance to the Alliance is spot on! But it only holds true if Erdogan and Turkey was a dependable member!
Despite all the pretty words in the preamble to the NATO Charter, it is a military alliance, conceived and established in 1949 to rein in any Russian territorial acquisitiveness in Europe.
It is therefore disturbing to see a powerful member like Turkey crawl further and further into bed into bed with the very country the alliance was created to contain!
You are pretty certain, that Sweden in the end will be accepted into the Alliance. But given that Erdogan retains political power, it’s equally possible it will give him enough wind in the sails, to become even more intransigent!

...aaaaaand Russia has blown up a dam that supplies water to Crimea, prevented 80+ villages from being flooded and supplied cooling water to a nuclear power station.
And they blamed Ukraine for it even though there was CCTV footage of the dam being blown up by emplaced explosives rather than shelling as they claim.

Are Russia taking the Geneva Convention as "Things to do in war" list rather than a "things not to do in war"?

Edit - And it would seem that Russia has shot themselves in the foot regarding Crimea since the dam they destroyed was a vital part of the irrigation system that allowed Crimea to be a productive farmland rather than a desert.
Or they know they're about to lose bigtime and are pursuing a Scorched Earth policy which... would actually fit with their actions so far.

Did Ukraine blow up the Nordstream pipelines after all?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... ne-russia/

The Post reports that in june 2022 a 'European Intelligence Agency' shared with the CIA details about a Ukrainian plan to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines. The 'European Intelligence Agency' reportedly had obtained that information from an individual in Ukraine. (I have to add: Whether the information was correct is not yet proven.)
Anyway: In the US the information was susequently leaked by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira to gaming chat platform Discord (among other classified US intelligence material).

So far the news report. Now is it correct?

Let's see if there are holes in the story:

First: Does the unnamed 'European Intelligence Agency' exist and has it shared this report about a Ukrainian plot to bomb the Nord Stream pipelines with the CIA?

Well it seems so since the Post claims in its article that it has spoken with 'multiple officials with knowledge on the matter' who all claimed that the US subsequently shared this report with Germany and other countries.

Secondly: Does the unnamed 'individual' in Ukraine who supposedly shared the info about the bomb plot with the 'European Intelligence Agency' in the first place a) exist at all and b) did they actually share said info with that agency as claimed?

Now this one is hard to say since so far this part of the story hasn't been corroborated by the Post. Also my guess as a layman with zero experience in espionage is that it is not impossible for a Russian Intelligence Agency to plant false evidence against Ukraine (or even conduct a 'False Flag Operation' as has been widely speculated.) In short we can't rule out this Ukrainian source to be a Russian agent. Especially since we don't get told who they are.

On the other hand I'd like to point out that the info about an Ukrainian bomb plot against the pipelines was plausible enough for the CIA to share it with European Allies. So someone at the CIA must have thought the bomb plot info was at least possibly correct which means the source was not obviously compromised. That's still not what I'd call solid evidence but it is something to keep in mind. Anyway: we have to keep our eyes and ears open on this point.

There is additional info that fits very well with the above report:

German, Danish and Swedish authorities are of course conducting an investigation into the pipeline sabotage.

According to the Post 'German investigators now believe that six individuals using fake passports rented a sailing yacht in September, embarked from Germany and planted explosives that severed the pipelines'. At least one of these men had ties to the Ukrainian military. The investigators also matched explosive residue found on the pipelines to traces found on the yacht. The investigators believe the six persons were skilled divers and they brought helium (which is needed for dives at that depth.)

Now this fits the original report by the Ukrainian source of the 'European Intelligence Agency. That's because in that report in june 2022 (before the pipeline attacks) it was already stated that 'six members of Ukraine’s special operations forces using false identities intended to rent a boat and, using a submersible vehicle, dive to the floor of the Baltic Sea and then damage or destroy the pipeline and escape undetected. In addition to oxygen, the team planned to bring helium, which is recommended for especially deep dives.'

That the German investigators found a yacht rented by six individuals and with explosives traces on it is not something the Washington Post made up. I already saw reports about this two months ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63HB1W9PVmE

(But at that point it wasn't yet known that the Teixeira Discord leak contained CIA info from june 2022 about an alleged Ukrainian bomb plot.)

When I take all of this together it seems to me that Ukrainian involvement in the pipeline bombings is pretty likely.

Ontop of that is the question of motive:

Ukraine had a motive - two motives really - because a) they always hated the Nord Stream pipelines in the first place. That's because any gas flowing through the North Sea instead of across Ukrainian territory meant no transit fees for Ukraine. Also b) during a war it kind of makes sense to get rid of a potential instrument of revenue for Russia. (Although the pipelines were not in use anymore when they got blown so the b) point is questionable but still.)
Russia on the other hand didn't really have a motive. Blowing up their own multi-billion dollar pipes just seems far-fetched even if its not per se impossible. And yeah the pipes weren't in use anymore at the time but they could have been put back in service again once peace breaks out some day. Destroying them seems very costly for Russia's future.

(As a trailer: I think whoever blew the pipes they did us Germans a favour. The pipelines were a problem that I am glad we got rid of. I have no personal interest in blaming Ukraine or whoever. I just find the topic very interesting.)

Edit: spelling

Look at the destruction of the NordStream 1-2 pipelines, as well as the Nova Kakhovka Dam as criminal acts, and as such there’s usually a motive!
As for the pipeline, who had the greatest motive for putting them out of business?
The Ukrainians?
Does it make any sense for them to go to the trouble of blowing up pipelines that weren’t being used, and had scant hope of ever seeing use again? That had gone from being Russian cash-cows to being cash-drains, in that they still required maintenance and upkeep!
So the Russian’s had the simplest of all motives: MONEY!
As for the Dam?
Would the Ukrainians flood their own cities and towns, as well as putting a large swath of their own arable farm land under water?
The Russians on the other hand got a twofer! The flooding will certainly make any plans the Ukrainians had for an offensive in the Kherson area more “difficult”.
…and again MONEY! With so much of Ukrainian farm land under water, Russia will have access to a greater market in the outside world for their grain and vegetable oil products.

Turkey won't back Swedish NATO bid unless it stops anti-Turkish protests, Erdogan says

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-wo ... 023-06-14/

The Swedes have done everything but kiss the ass of that forked-tongued two-faced SOB of a shyster!!!
They rescinded the sanctions that they; and other nations, imposed on Turkey.

Sanctions that were imposed when the Turks attacked the Kurds that were fighting alongside the American led Coalition fighting ISIS

!
They add mended; and toughened, their Bill of Rights, to take a harder stance against; (The PKK was already forbidden, in Sweden!!!!) prohibited organizations.
Hell, they even tossed the forked-tongued two-faced SOB, a piece of meat!!!
One of the Kurds that he demanded extradited, was unfortunate enough, not only to be wanted in Turkey for being a PKK member. But the poor schmuck was also wanted as a hashish smuggler in Turkey; a criminal charge!!! Giving the Swedes a fig leaf!
Yet not enough!!!
So maybe what is left is the F-16 deal with the US.
Hope the American administration is canny enough; when dealing with a forked-tongued two-faced SOB, to see a Turkish accept of Sweden in the alliance.
Then F-16’s can be discussed!!!

...and Putin has discovered the key problem with using mercenaries - they need to be paid!

It looks like Putin's attempt to save money by shorting the Wagner group almost led to him being toppled. His paranoia must be ratchetting up fast enough to counterbalance Russia's loss of international reputation...