Axelrod and SKM relationship

That’s why I’d cut in someone with a real navy. The investment isn’t that big in the survey and getting a BC wrecked is going to cost far more, and the potential downside cost of a failed special military operation is fat worse. If you can get a signed deal with the SKM that’s might be even better, or at least reasonable.

But it helps if the peace-loving Manticorans see that they have the options of signing away a percentage of something they didn’t even know they had or getting none of it and getting their very expensive navy shot up.

Edited fixed autocorrupt 'hurts' to 'helps' in the sentence above.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:<snip>

In paper, it actually was. With 12 battlecruisers at a time when only the SLN and IAN had battleships at all, it's nothing to sneeze at. We know those ships were entirely in mothballs at the beginning of ACTD, with just two reactivated by the time the Volsungs came calling.

Actually, the RMN only purchased 9 Triumph BCs (they had >30 ships during Travis's time, and 7 were sublight Corvettes). And one, the Mars, has been removed from service (the Sloop concept). This BC design (and the rest of the designs) wern't cutting edge when they was purchased, let alone now.

The only "modern" unit is the CL Casey, as far as we know - there might be 1 or 2 being modernized, but we don't know when they would be available. We do know that the BCs are so small they will eventually be redesignated as CAs.

kzt wrote:That’s why I’d cut in someone with a real navy. The investment isn’t that big in the survey and getting a BC wrecked is going to cost far more, and the potential downside cost of a failed special military operation is fat worse. If you can get a signed deal with the SKM that’s might be even better, or at least reasonable.

The problem is I don't think there's anyone to take that deal. The only forced that would be big enough to matter would be the SLN, the RHN, the IAN, and a couple of core worlds' SDFs. The first three wouldn't do it. I don't know know if SDFs would be allowed to operate outside of the their home systems. They are called "defence forces" for a reason.

The other problem is maintaining that force from a large distance. See Jonathan's reply for the logistic problems of that with the tech of the era. And add to that that Axelrod didn't know which systems would be close by on the other side of the Terminus until they actually made the transits, so that plan would need to assume a worst-case scenario that this force would need to receive resupplies only through hyperspace.

I'd add another one about a League system administering the Junction: other League systems. They'd raise a fuss in the League Assembly and interstellar commerce regulations were under the purview of the bureaucrats, without the veto power of the Assembly. You'd also have to deal with sanctimonious members like Beowulf who'd stand on principle that the League was usurping the rightful owners of the Junction -- and I mean this in the Axelrod planning stages, before knowing that there's a terminus right next to Beowulf.

Therefore, I think that they probably did the maths and concluded it would be far more difficult to hold the Junction against an independent Manticore. Instead, it would be best to simply conquer Manticore.

The RMN has a small core of outdated capital ships, and a somewhat larger group of not-particularly impressive frigates, destroyers and cruisers. This isn't the RMN of 1900, with dozens of modern capital ships. There are probably scores if not hundreds of systems with a modern fleet that is clearly superior.

And no, you don't have to actually fight off the RMN, though if you blow them out of space it would certainly put you in an advantageous negotiating system vs the SKM. You can also abandon the sovereign territory of a SL member after being attacked by a hostile foreign power. Then your SL partner goes talk to the nice man running Battle Fleet...

That's why you need a SL member as a partner.

kzt wrote:The RMN has a small core of outdated capital ships, and a somewhat larger group of not-particularly impressive frigates, destroyers and cruisers. This isn't the RMN of 1900, with dozens of modern capital ships. There are probably scores if not hundreds of systems with a modern fleet that is clearly superior.

Sorry, I don't believe that, but quite frankly we don't know. My reasons:

First, I don't think that there aren't that many systems with 32 BCs active in 1535, when the Axelrod plan was hatched. A fleet of that size is not an inconsiderable or cheap even by 1900s standards. I would say that there are at most 300 navies in Honor's time with a fleet of that size in the first place. In Travis' time, when BCs were the top of the line, there would be much fewer.

Second, I don't think that even the systems that have BCs would be in a much better shape, short of League SDFs. Again, we know from the 1900s that second-rate navies keep top-of-the-line ships only as show-offs, ego-strokes, so there's no reason to believe the BCs of the 1530s were any different. Though I'll grant you that the ones that do have 32 in service would be the ones that actually take good care of them.

Third, even though the the RMN Triumph-class BCs were old, they were still battlecruisers. You don't fight those with anything less than other battlecruisers: there's a reason why the number of them in service was an important detail that Cutler Gensonne asked of Jeremiah Llyn, and Llyn fudged to convince Gensonne to attack.

And fourth, the RMN was definitely not a premier fighting force, but with a hostile force encroaching in their territory, they'd fight. As Jonathan said, this defending force would need, on their worst day, to be able to beat the RMN on their best day, day in and day out. That further reduces the number of available navies that can cut it. You'd end up having to resort to mercenaries, who are actually capable of doing this.

And no, you don't have to actually fight off the RMN, though if you blow them out of space it would certainly put you in an advantageous negotiating system vs the SKM. You can also abandon the sovereign territory of a SL member after being attacked by a hostile foreign power. Then your SL partner goes talk to the nice man running Battle Fleet...

If you're going to blow out the RMN, which is your best option and more so if you do it in a surprise attack, we go back to the scenario where we are right now. If Axelrod manages to put a force of its own in orbit above Landing, why not take over the entire kingdom anyway? Force a republican revolution, put a puppet president in place, have them sign a 100-year wormhole management deal. No need to deal with an SL member.

That's why you need a SL member as a partner.

Yes... but I don't think there are ones to be found.

The SL members with 32 active BCs in their SDFs are the ones who need 32 BCs to defend their home systems (or think they do, which is the same thing). Convincing those to tie three fourths of their SDF to a 100-year commitment might be too difficult.

As you say, the SDF couldn't go conquering, but it could retaliate and Axelrod could make it look like the RMN did attack. The Barca-Manticore scenario was no problem because Axelrod would be controlling both the aggressor and the victim, so no investigation would reveal anything useful. With the victim being an SL member, the other members would ask questions and so would the SLN.

The idea was for Axelrod to be controlling Manticore by the time Haven, the Andermani, and the League ever took notice of the change of government.

There is a reason why the SLN keeps more of an eye on SL systems with large SDFs than they do with neobarbs like the SEM. Because experience has shown that some SL 'SDF's are in fact not System Defense Forces at all. They can do that too, but that isn't what they are designed to do.

So there are expansionist SL members out there. And, if you have the right people with the right contacts, you don't need that force to be able to actually defeat the RMN. They have people who know people who will do that for you, once you and your allies properly prepare the battlefield.

But any military action is risky. The enemy always gets a vote. The assumption that you can obviously win a short victorious war has led to a lot of semi-successful military adventurers careers coming to a very sudden and final stop when the enemy doesn't do what you expect, has resources you overlooked, has allies who really will show up, or when you discover that things you knew about your forces actual capabilities just aren't so.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:First, I don't think that there aren't that many systems with 32 BCs active in 1535, when the Axelrod plan was hatched. A fleet of that size is not an inconsiderable or cheap even by 1900s standards. I would say that there are at most 300 navies in Honor's time with a fleet of that size in the first place. In Travis' time, when BCs were the top of the line, there would be much fewer.

Second, I don't think that even the systems that have BCs would be in a much better shape, short of League SDFs. Again, we know from the 1900s that second-rate navies keep top-of-the-line ships only as show-offs, ego-strokes, so there's no reason to believe the BCs of the 1530s were any different. Though I'll grant you that the ones that do have 32 in service would be the ones that actually take good care of them.

Third, even though the the RMN Triumph-class BCs were old, they were still battlecruisers. You don't fight those with anything less than other battlecruisers: there's a reason why the number of them in service was an important detail that Cutler Gensonne asked of Jeremiah Llyn, and Llyn fudged to convince Gensonne to attack.

And fourth, the RMN was definitely not a premier fighting force, but with a hostile force encroaching in their territory, they'd fight. As Jonathan said, this defending force would need, on their worst day, to be able to beat the RMN on their best day, day in and day out. That further reduces the number of available navies that can cut it. You'd end up having to resort to mercenaries, who are actually capable of doing this.

And unless the BCs were able to resupply and get maintained in Beowulf's yards (or at least use Beowulf's terminus and have yards in some relatively close-by system) I don't even think 32 BCs would be enough.

Even if 8 BCs on station is enough to deter Manticore (which could, given time reactive all of their BCs) ships need to see a yard or repair ship every 2-3 years for maintenance items they can't perform onboard. But without the wormhole it's basically a 2 year round-trip to Manticore from the League.

So you'd want around a max of 1 year on-station before rotating home.

But if you want only 8 in transit at any given time that's 4 heading out and 4 heading back - so you're averaging dispatching a single relief BC every 3 months (4 per year). But that means it takes 2 years to cycle 8 replacements through - so now your ships are spending 4 years between yard visits. (And the crews have to agree for 4 years without likely any shore leave, much less leave in their home system to see their families or friends)

You'd be better off if you could devote 40 BCs to it so you could have 8 on station, 16 in transit, up to 8 in the yards, and at least 8 covering your home system. That could let you get back down to a replacement every 6 weeks and only a 3 year tour.


But even with the extra ships then you risk losing the wormhole to attrition; given how much closer Manticore's yards and missile production is. Even in a fight where both sides expended the same number of missiles and took equivalent damage - Manticore can probably patch their ships up, and can certainly keep resupplying them with ammo, faster than your steady drumbeat of replacements can let you get replacements to let you cycle back your damaged units. Keep that nibbling away up and cumulative damage and/or running out of missiles might well spell the end of an ultra long-distance attempt to hold that Junction territory.

Oh, and all this assumes you only need to face Manticore. You don't have the forces to blockade them into their system, so there's nothing to stop them from sending envoys to try and convince one of their powerful distant neighbors (like Haven or the Andermani) to assist. Offering a cut of future wormhole fees might be a powerful incentive to back Manticore.

In OTL this is the current dilemma facing China in theory on Taiwan. They should roll over the SDF of Taiwan.
However Russia should have rolled right over Ukraine. As Sun Tzu says the enemy doesn't always cooperate. That's why you call them the enemy.
People tend to fight more for their homes and families than for conquest, that only benefits the elites anyway.

Daryl wrote:In OTL this is the current dilemma facing China in theory on Taiwan. They should roll over the SDF of Taiwan.
However Russia should have rolled right over Ukraine. As Sun Tzu says the enemy doesn't always cooperate. That's why you call them the enemy.
People tend to fight more for their homes and families than for conquest, that only benefits the elites anyway.

Yup. Which is why you want to avoid combat when possible. Capone was right when he said "You can get much further with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone." But if you can convince them that they want to do something, or least it is their best interest to do it, things tend to work out better.

Warships are expensive, crews are expensive, missiles and repairs are expensive. You don’t make money getting your fleet shot up.

But when words fail, “How about you and him fight” is another effective tactic. Or the best one, when you get your big brother, in the form of the SLN, to show up to spank the people that stole your piece of sovereign SL territory. Even if your claim, while not not obviously invalid, might be bit questionable. I’m sure the courts will clear it up in a few decades. Are you sure you don’t want to sign this quite reasonable contract instead of drawing it for years before you lose in the courts too?

kzt wrote:But any military action is risky. The enemy always gets a vote. The assumption that you can obviously win a short victorious war has led to a lot of semi-successful military adventurers careers coming to a very sudden and final stop when the enemy doesn't do what you expect, has resources you overlooked, has allies who really will show up, or when you discover that things you knew about your forces actual capabilities just aren't so.

And not just the enemy.

Your neighbours and peers do too. This is what I've been saying about getting the SL involved: the other SL members will then take an interest. You'll attract the righteous ones' anger and cause them to investigate just what you did, and you'll attract the avaricious ones' ire for not being included in the deal.