Axelrod and SKM relationship

Jonathan_S wrote:And of course we know that the first termini discovered leads right to Beowulf. Making it extra likely that a founding member of the SL would have... thoughts about a transtellar like Axlerod trying to claim a wormhole without the knowledge of the government of the star system it's adjacent to.

Of course, they didn't know where it would lead to. But they were hoping it did lead to the SL, because that would make the WH far more profitable. Given that they were hoping it would make profit, I think they had an idea the probability of connecting back to the League in one or two hops was high (wormholes appear to form networks).

Jonathan_S wrote:And of course we know that the first termini discovered leads right to Beowulf. Making it extra likely that a founding member of the SL would have... thoughts about a transtellar like Axlerod trying to claim a wormhole without the knowledge of the government of the star system it's adjacent to.

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears is, does it make any sound?

The Terminus is 12 light hours out, in the middle of nowhere. Nobody is going to see them exit.

At which point the crew of the survey ship all scream "Beowulf - Damn, we're Rich!" and drop into hyper to go get paid.

At that point, do you think the corp can't manage to get a SLN cruiser or battle squadron parked at the junction? It doesn't have to be able to fight off the RMN, it just needs to be there so the RMN needs to fight it while the SL negotiator shows up on Manticore to talk about a 'mutually beneficial' deal.

What is the strength of the SKM negotiating position now? Might they be open to 'productive discussions'?

kzt wrote:..snip..

Don't confuse the "current" SL with the SL at the time, Axelrod can't just snap their fingers and have SL do their bidding. This i why I said in an earlier post that if "things" happen out of sequence someone will get twigged on that something strange is going on, like someone was running a search 12lh from the primary to find a wormhole loci that is at that time documented as "don't exist" by the prior survey of the system.

You simply won't see the survey. It's about the same odds as you sitting in NYC Harbor and noticing the submarine at 800 feet depth 1200 miles off shore.

Nobody goes out that far routinely. Typically hyper in is a light hour or two, (out is closer in) and the sensors of merchants suck anyhow. You can't see a downward hyper translation past a few light hours.

And if you do go out that far, ships operating at low power level are very difficult to spot. Unlike a ship moving towards you at high acceleration, which you can see far away. And hyper out. Poof, you are gone with no sign you were ever there.

kzt wrote:You simply won't see the survey. It's about the same odds as you sitting in NYC Harbor and noticing the submarine at 800 feet depth 1200 miles off shore.

Nobody goes out that far routinely. Typically hyper in is a light hour or two, (out is closer in) and the sensors of merchants suck anyhow. You can't see a downward hyper translation past a few light hours.

And if you do go out that far, ships operating at low power level are very difficult to spot. Unlike a ship moving towards you at high acceleration, which you can see far away. And hyper out. Poof, you are gone with no sign you were ever there.

That's not an issue although a ship may well drop out of hyper on top of a survey ship that has to spend weeks if not months loitering in the system while nailing the loci down, Murphy's law and all that. The order of events also matters here, there's public data available that Axelrod surveyed the system but the report saying it may contain a wormhole was disappeared. If Axelrod then does a covert survey to find the loci and exploits the wormhole means they withheld information from everyone, including the owner of the system.

The point is that it doesn't really matter what they do, they can survey all they want but they can't exploit the wormhole since legal precedent says such things belong to the owner of the system. This was brought up when Manticore claimed ownership of the Lynx terminus were some legal challenges said Manticore had no rights to it but Lynx did but since the terminus was actually situated in a red dwarf system 4ly from Lynx which made such challenges moot.

The only viable route for Axelrod to claim the Manticore wormhole and profit from it was to own the system, with or without a survey, hence the attack in 1543 PD.

kzt wrote:You simply won't see the survey. It's about the same odds as you sitting in NYC Harbor and noticing the submarine at 800 feet depth 1200 miles off shore.

Nobody goes out that far routinely. Typically hyper in is a light hour or two, (out is closer in) and the sensors of merchants suck anyhow. You can't see a downward hyper translation past a few light hours.

And if you do go out that far, ships operating at low power level are very difficult to spot. Unlike a ship moving towards you at high acceleration, which you can see far away. And hyper out. Poof, you are gone with no sign you were ever there.

We don't know that. The only two wormhole surveys we know of (both by the Harvest Joy) were on wormholes whose locations were already known. So, sure, at the end of the survey when they have already located where the WH is, it would be out that far. The Junction is now 7 light-hours from Manticore-A; at the time, it appears to have been associated with Manticore-B, but likely at a similar distance.

But it's quite possible that the exact location of the wormhole is not known yet. The initial incursion during A Call to Arms was to determine that there was, indeed, a wormhole, but it was done n the A component, which may not be enough. Searching for the wormhole out there is like searching for a needle in outer space. They need to have some idea of the direction and distance from the star first.

And if indeed it's associated with the B component, taking readings of Manticore-B is going to be impossible because no one went there at the time, aside from Manticore's own supply shuttles. A little earlier in the timeline, during the "Deception on Gryphon" story in WPV, the only people on Gryphon were the surveyors; during ACTD, we know there were few ships in-system to even render aid to miners, but there were assets in system from both the RMN add the MPARS. So a hyper footprint would be noted if it came at or close to the hyperlimit, as the survey may need. Don't forget the Unicorn Belt is also a light-hour or two from the B star.

So maybe a ship can translate a couple of light-hours from the nearest settlement and go unnoticed while it trawls around the system, under chemical thruster power, to avoid giving itself away over gravitics. And if someone chances upon it, it can claim to be a pirate and scurry away. In any event, that doesn't remove the other problems, like what you do after you've mapped it and hopefully connected to a wealthy League system so that there is worthwhile traffic to be taxed.

I’ll point out that a SLN fleet several hundred years later could only pick up A hyper transition at several light hours. And clearly the tiny and underfunded RMN wasn’t going to have installed a huge, delicate and enormously expensive detection network.

So no, nobody is going to notice the equivalent of a submarine surfacing 600 miles west of Iceland when you are sitting in NY Harbor. Maybe the sosus line might, or a patrol aircraft. But we have already established that their equivalent doesn’t exist.

kzt wrote:I’ll point out that a SLN fleet several hundred years later could only pick up A hyper transition at several light hours. And clearly the tiny and underfunded RMN wasn’t going to have installed a huge, delicate and enormously expensive detection network.

So no, nobody is going to notice the equivalent of a submarine surfacing 600 miles west of Iceland when you are sitting in NY Harbor. Maybe the sosus line might, or a patrol aircraft. But we have already established that their equivalent doesn’t exist.

If it was 1 submarine surfacing once, I'd agree with you. The problem is they are practicing surfacing multiple times daily for 6-12 months. Eventually a fishing trawler is going to be in the right place to see everything.

kzt wrote:I’ll point out that a SLN fleet several hundred years later could only pick up A hyper transition at several light hours. And clearly the tiny and underfunded RMN wasn’t going to have installed a huge, delicate and enormously expensive detection network.

So no, nobody is going to notice the equivalent of a submarine surfacing 600 miles west of Iceland when you are sitting in NY Harbor. Maybe the sosus line might, or a patrol aircraft. But we have already established that their equivalent doesn’t exist.

I'm not sure how much that matters. Even if the survey on both ends is entirely secret, Axlerod can't monetize the wormhole by charging fees for transit without going public about its existence. And at that point I have to imagine that Beowulf is going to be asking very pointed questions about WTH they think they're doing trying to poach a wormhole in their star system without ever even talking to the system government.

Beowulf's SDF is more that capable of simply showing up and saying "no thanks, this is our now" (And frankly, unless Axlerod hires a major long term defensive mercenary fleet to anchor the Manticore side, Manticore's nascent navy is also large enough to take over control of their Junction). But even so, if they annoy Beowulf enough that that seize control of their terminus, odds are Beowulf will go the extra step and strip them of control of the whole Junction -- just as a punishment for being so brazen.

Sure, the terminus is out in the wider territory that a system needs to actively patrol to maintain control over - but even Manticore has the units to do that. And having the forces to kick out an unwanted interstellar is basically the definition of enforcing your greater exclusive economic zone

The odds that Axlerod can get that earlier League to care about this (in a time when the SLN isn't yet addicted to that sweet, sweet, transit fee based funding) and try to enforce their ownership in the face of local military resistance seems low.

Especially since the treaties we're familiar with, controlling who owns a newly discovered wormholes, probably haven't been written yet -- and so Axlerod wouldn't have a clear legal right under interstellar law to those wormhole.

So I can see why Axlerod attempted to instead turn Manticore into a puppet state for themselves. That way the local government owns their system's wormhole - and Axlerod can "simply" be paid some exorbitant percentage of the transit fees to manage and operate it. That seems much less likely to draw scrutiny, at least to the Manticore end, than if they try to secretly grab the wormhole from every system it touches.

I don't know, the SLN has always seemed a bit squirrely. But if not, you can find someone to help provide a better negotiating position. Like Beowulf, getting them invested in the deal before talking to Manticore. Trying a direct overthrow is a pretty major deal, lots more can go really, really bad than is likely with a failed deal with an overtone of intimidation.