Axelrod and SKM relationship

So re-reading the Manticore Ascendant series, and was wondering why Axelrod went down the "invade" via "deniable merc." route rather than the more easier "buyout the nation route" for control of the Junction.

After all they had to hire not only multiple merc groups but an independent nation (which once the junction was confirm would be the one collecting the tax revenues and therefore could easily then afford to get rid of Axelrod).

If they had stuck to a more traditional, "dump cheap trade goods on the SKM to undercut local businesses combined with buying out the shares of traded companies" (especially with some backhanders to the likes of Breakwater (plus some target assassinations via the "black ops group")), they could of not only got control of the SKM but done it a fraction of the cost.

We know from the Mesa attempt to get hold of treecats that non-SKM business can be set-up within the SKM.

So part from a better story, what is Axelrod reasoning?

Garth 2 wrote:So re-reading the Manticore Ascendant series, and was wondering why Axelrod went down the "invade" via "deniable merc." route rather than the more easier "buyout the nation route" for control of the Junction.

After all they had to hire not only multiple merc groups but an independent nation (which once the junction was confirm would be the one collecting the tax revenues and therefore could easily then afford to get rid of Axelrod).

If they had stuck to a more traditional, "dump cheap trade goods on the SKM to undercut local businesses combined with buying out the shares of traded companies" (especially with some backhanders to the likes of Breakwater (plus some target assassinations via the "black ops group")), they could of not only got control of the SKM but done it a fraction of the cost.

We know from the Mesa attempt to get hold of treecats that non-SKM business can be set-up within the SKM.

So part from a better story, what is Axelrod reasoning?

I know for a real world rational, "Space battles in sci-fi series sells books". "Economics in SPAce......!" sells fewer books....

Garth 2 wrote:So re-reading the Manticore Ascendant series, and was wondering why Axelrod went down the "invade" via "deniable merc." route rather than the more easier "buyout the nation route" for control of the Junction.

After all they had to hire not only multiple merc groups but an independent nation (which once the junction was confirm would be the one collecting the tax revenues and therefore could easily then afford to get rid of Axelrod).

If they had stuck to a more traditional, "dump cheap trade goods on the SKM to undercut local businesses combined with buying out the shares of traded companies" (especially with some backhanders to the likes of Breakwater (plus some target assassinations via the "black ops group")), they could of not only got control of the SKM but done it a fraction of the cost.

We know from the Mesa attempt to get hold of treecats that non-SKM business can be set-up within the SKM.

So part from a better story, what is Axelrod reasoning?

Wouldn't that depend on to what extent the Manticoran government allowed that?

They could, for example, enact anti-dumping tariffs to keep Axlerod from undercutting local companies. Or put limits on how much foreign ownership was permitted. (And back when the wormhole was being discovered interstellar shipping was way slower, riskier, and expensive -- so it might actually have cost Axlerod more - and certainly taken longer - to undermine Manticore economically)

And, of course, even if Manticore's government didn't have the foresight to head off Axlerod's crushing and buy-up of local companies they could still undo all that when Axlerod made their play to own the wormhole.
Oops - all your local businesses got nationalized. Now what are you going to do?

Jonathan_S wrote:

Garth 2 wrote:So re-reading the Manticore Ascendant series, and was wondering why Axelrod went down the "invade" via "deniable merc." route rather than the more easier "buyout the nation route" for control of the Junction.

After all they had to hire not only multiple merc groups but an independent nation (which once the junction was confirm would be the one collecting the tax revenues and therefore could easily then afford to get rid of Axelrod).

If they had stuck to a more traditional, "dump cheap trade goods on the SKM to undercut local businesses combined with buying out the shares of traded companies" (especially with some backhanders to the likes of Breakwater (plus some target assassinations via the "black ops group")), they could of not only got control of the SKM but done it a fraction of the cost.

We know from the Mesa attempt to get hold of treecats that non-SKM business can be set-up within the SKM.

So part from a better story, what is Axelrod reasoning?

Wouldn't that depend on to what extent the Manticoran government allowed that?

They could, for example, enact anti-dumping tariffs to keep Axlerod from undercutting local companies. Or put limits on how much foreign ownership was permitted. (And back when the wormhole was being discovered interstellar shipping was way slower, riskier, and expensive -- so it might actually have cost Axlerod more - and certainly taken longer - to undermine Manticore economically)

And, of course, even if Manticore's government didn't have the foresight to head off Axlerod's crushing and buy-up of local companies they could still undo all that when Axlerod made their play to own the wormhole.
Oops - all your local businesses got nationalized. Now what are you going to do?

Honesty, All Axelrod had to do was come in and say that there were indications there was a wormhole, and they would come in, do the exploration and detection and set up traffic control for only x% of the ongoing wormhole revenue and if you want us to manage traffic, an additional x% annually. Honest, free cash into perpetuity. not as much cash, but it would get Axelrod in Manticore's good graces, and who knows what other govt contracts they could pickup over the years, and doing it here makes it more likely you can do the same elsewhere.

No one knew Manticore's wormhole would be as big and connect as many good places - it could have been a total dud with a single bridge only 10 light years long pointed the wrong way (no matter what, there is always a worst orientation), with a low mass limit. Being a good, trustworthy business partner here may have garnered others with a better proposition.

Instead they had to go for everything, and lost.

Theemile wrote:Instead they had to go for everything, and lost.

Consider what happened with the original survey-data indicating there was a wormhole. We can also infer from textev that the Transtellars even back then had no qualms about acquiring real estate through dubious means.

Looking at the problem from Axelrod's perspective, decapitating the current government and taking over the system quickly means their ROI time is much shorter with the possibility of extreme profits from owning a wormhole. It would also allow them the time to weed out "dissenters" before the SL (for example) came sniffing and have Manticore firmly under their control.

The suggested alternative where they come in and offering their services always have the chance of being rejected or later negated by the government.

It's all about greed in the end.

IIRC, the wormhole is technically not inside the recognized territory of the SKM. You could just move in and set up. You don't have to pay any money or attention to the SKM. You'd have to be willing to defend it, but you can probably arrange, for a probably very reasonable price, for the SLN to do that for you.

kzt wrote:IIRC, the wormhole is technically not inside the recognized territory of the SKM. You could just move in and set up. You don't have to pay any money or attention to the SKM. You'd have to be willing to defend it, but you can probably arrange, for a probably very reasonable price, for the SLN to do that for you.

True, but the RMN was already outsized for a colony out in the boondocks. The logistics of setting up a military force in the MBS was tremendous. Plus, they didn't know where exactly the WH was, so they needed first to survey the system. A ship alone would never accomplish that, so they'd need to set up said military force for years while the survey happened. Where would they get supply.

I also think that Axelrod was trying to cover its base on the contract with the SL that they had to tell about wormholes they found. There's wording in the book that says that they agreed they didn't have to legally do so outside of SL territory, but at the same time they would prefer not to test the theory against the SL Dept. of Justice. This might be the reason behind arranging for a puppet government asking them to come, instead of claiming they already knew.

Additionally, like the RMN, the SKM was not your run of the mill Fringe colony either. The SKM had a lot of money and a stable economy, thanks to the Manticore Colony Trust, so an economic war with it may not turn out to be cheap. Plus, there's astrography to consider: the Andermani and Haven were very close and would take notice if a transstellar set up shop so close. That's also why they arranged to distract those two polities, so the take-over by the puppet foreign government would be fait accompli when they finally took notice.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
True, but the RMN was already outsized for a colony out in the boondocks. The logistics of setting up a military force in the MBS was tremendous. Plus, they didn't know where exactly the WH was, so they needed first to survey the system. A ship alone would never accomplish that, so they'd need to set up said military force for years while the survey happened. Where would they get supply.

You are poking around 10-15 LH from the primary. And I don't think the SEM have their fancy sensor network. They aren't even going to see you hypering in. So, unless you try really hard to attract attention nobody is going to see you. You are going to see anyone coming at you a very long way away. So you quietly explore without telling any of the neo-barbs what's up.

And you have a general idea where due to the RZ. It's not like it's a full shell to explore, you have it limited to about 1/16th of the total space at max, and the high probability area is probably a lot smaller.

If you run low of food you go somewhere else and restock while you let the crew have leave. Then it's back to the salt mines.

kzt wrote:You are poking around 10-15 LH from the primary. And I don't think the SEM have their fancy sensor network. They aren't even going to see you hypering in. So, unless you try really hard to attract attention nobody is going to see you. You are going to see anyone coming at you a very long way away. So you quietly explore without telling any of the neo-barbs what's up.

And how long do you think it'll take to locate the first loci, especially considering that the sensors weren't as good back then. Plus, it just takes one random ship running into the survey to make it public knowledge.

There's one another wrinkle here, the SL. Think about in which order certain events have to play out for the SL to accept the situation. As long as Manticore is "independent" and a 3rd party suddenly starts exploiting a wormhole no one knew about but in an area that was earlied surveyed SL may take notice.

The approach to use cutouts like the Mercenaries to take over Manticore means the risk of the SL start looking into things are largely negated.

Joat42 wrote:

kzt wrote:You are poking around 10-15 LH from the primary. And I don't think the SEM have their fancy sensor network. They aren't even going to see you hypering in. So, unless you try really hard to attract attention nobody is going to see you. You are going to see anyone coming at you a very long way away. So you quietly explore without telling any of the neo-barbs what's up.

And how long do you think it'll take to locate the first loci, especially considering that the sensors weren't as good back then. Plus, it just takes one random ship running into the survey to make it public knowledge.

There's one another wrinkle here, the SL. Think about in which order certain events have to play out for the SL to accept the situation. As long as Manticore is "independent" and a 3rd party suddenly starts exploiting a wormhole no one knew about but in an area that was earlied surveyed SL may take notice.

The approach to use cutouts like the Mercenaries to take over Manticore means the risk of the SL start looking into things are largely negated.

And of course we know that the first termini discovered leads right to Beowulf. Making it extra likely that a founding member of the SL would have... thoughts about a transtellar like Axlerod trying to claim a wormhole without the knowledge of the government of the star system it's adjacent to.