[Spoilers] 1920 PD – Silesian Command

Brigade XO wrote: So much comes into play in both cases and much of it deals with penalties for lack of performance on either the delivery (as allowed for in shipping contracts and/or purchase contracts for the goods. Either way (whenever the goods may get delivered) the volume of transport slows down and the economy is effected. It has been mentioned that a lot of MMM were going to default on loan payments etc which could have put them out of business. The same thing is going to happen to the involved 1) manufactures, 2 )wholesalers, 3) shipping companies, 4) the companies who had ordered the goods and who now don't have the either the product to sell or can't make their own commitments.
Even shipping companies like Kolokainos are going to be caught in this because they are going to have to find replacements for the MMM ships they lease/hire as carriers. Yes, they COULD swap out a MMM ship heading outbound -out side of the SL- for a non-MMM cargo ship heading in and deal with the problem that way but there is timing and various contractual issues.

That was the whole point of Lacoön: in addition to being for the general safety of Manticore citizens in a time of war, it was economic pressure (economic war even) on the SL. Since the central government of the League couldn't do direct taxation and depended on interstellar commerce as its only legitimate source of revenue, this put extreme pressure on the Mandarins to negotiate. We heard from Wodolawski and Quartermain that the central government was a few months away from defaulting.

Even if every shipping company in the SL (and many outside the SL) imediaitaly placed orders for new commercial transports - to whatever capacity was then available in the SL and other commericial shipyards- it would take probably at least a year to deliver the 1st ships even if they use current "standard" cargo designs.

If only some military governor of a region had had the foresight to start building a lot of civilian ships before the hostilities started so they'd be ready just as they ended...

It is possible that MMM ships could have gotten to Beowulf and found non-MMM shipping with available cargo space (won't get into what that would have cost somebody) BUT that they then headed "away" from SL space via hyper to shift where they would start looking for new business/ loads. How likely (it is not mentioned, not germane to plot) that the SLN would have attempted to set up commerce interdiction outside Beowulf's and the Sigma Draconis Terminus to intercept MMM? That would have created a bad situation given the know reaction of RMN to commerce raiding or siezing against MMM.

That didn't happen, or at least we weren't told it did. Commerce raiding was a valid war-time practice and we heard it from both the PN and RMN in the first war, so the SLN could have legitimately engaged in it. But they didn't. It might be that the SLN thought that it was beneath them, or it might be that they didn't want to confront GA escorts, which could and would kick their ass... you don't do commerce raiding in battlecruisers.

It's also very possible that they'd hurt themselves more than the loss of the hulls would hurt the GA economy. After all, the majority of the cargo would be bound to or from a League system, even if indirectly.

For the ships that absconded with a customers cargo, the shipper would go after the ships bond. Which would basically make it impossible to operate as a commercial ship.

For those whose cargo was delivered really late, well you plead force majeure and everyone gets to be unhappy.

The second order impacts are going to be that people will just not hire pirates to transport their goods, the the mmm is going to have some issues. And every core world can build freighters, so they will.

kzt wrote:For the ships that absconded with a customers cargo, the shipper would go after the ships bond. Which would basically make it impossible to operate as a commercial ship.

For those whose cargo was delivered really late, well you plead force majeure and everyone gets to be unhappy.

The second order impacts are going to be that people will just not hire pirates to transport their goods, the the mmm is going to have some issues. And every core world can build freighters, so they will.

Contract probably requires adjudication under Manticoran law. Which would say, see the Crown.

kzt wrote:For the ships that absconded with a customers cargo, the shipper would go after the ships bond. Which would basically make it impossible to operate as a commercial ship.

For those whose cargo was delivered really late, well you plead force majeure and everyone gets to be unhappy.

The second order impacts are going to be that people will just not hire pirates to transport their goods, the the mmm is going to have some issues. And every core world can build freighters, so they will.

Fox2! wrote:Contract probably requires adjudication under Manticoran law. Which would say, see the Crown.

And besides, that doesn't change the economic conditions that made the MMM thrive, most important of which is the fee paid to transit the Junction. Maybe that gets extended to some other polities, but they're all best of friends with Manticore anyway, so if you dislike the MMM to the point of calling them pirates, you wouldn't want to hire their buddies who were also on the same side in that war.

What's more, there's a question of how much they've given back after Lacoön Two. Being TheGoodGuys™, they probably returned all wormholes to their rightful owners... but what if they didn't? We know at least one that changed from Manticore-hostile to Manticore-friendly: the Mesa-Visigoth Wormhole.

Yes, Visigoth is an RF member and probably cool towards Manticore, but Mesa isn't. Visigoth will end up forced to accede to Mesa's requests and can't object too much.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
What's more, there's a question of how much they've given back after Lacoön Two. Being TheGoodGuys™, they probably returned all wormholes to their rightful owners... but what if they didn't? We know at least one that changed from Manticore-hostile to Manticore-friendly: the Mesa-Visigoth Wormhole.

Those systems which no longer had a multi-stellar or OSF "partner" would probably see improved economics without that leech hanging off them, in terms of graft, extortionate profits and OSF "fees" going away. It's up to the citizens to ensure that the term of the "President for Life" and his (or hers) heirs, successors and assigns are limited.

We don't know that any MMM ships absconded with cargos. That would imply that they actually stole them and sold them off or otherwise profited from then. Actually were weren't told anything much and only shown two situations with Owner-On-Board if I remember correctly. One refused to load cargo and apologized to shipping/freight company with the explanation of the order of recall. The other promised to go straight back to Manticore after they made ONE last delivery.
The ships- which we are presuming are all Manticore flagged- were responding to a legal order by the government of Manticore. What we were not told is what the ships did when they got back into Manticore's controlled space.
One guess is that the Government - as part of the Lacoon order- instructed the ships to transfer ALL diverted SL cargo (that was not going beyond the scope of Manticore's jurisdiction in the directions keeping it away from the League controlled space) to Transient Storage or into military warehousing - and notify the involved parties, including the insurance companies- of what was happening, where their goods were and that they were NOT seized as a result of the "difficulties" with the League. Recall that closing the Junction meant that SLN flagged ships were refused passage and NOT interdicted or seized- they were free to go anywhere else they wanted, just not into Manticorian controlled space. Hardly piracy.
Did any MMM flagged ships skive off with merchandise? We have no way to know. We also don't know how many other ships took the opportunity to make one last stop and essentially dump any cargo destined for within the League on somebody's transfer station- with receipts for that transfer- and specifically send notice on through the various shipping and fright companies as well as local governments to notify the intended recipients where the cargo could be found.
Manticore has --well they had prior to Oyster Bay- a whole lot of specialists in interstellar trade law, which would have been able to dress up Lacoon One such that actual blame was shifted off the Merchant vessels that complied with the recall order.
We also were not told that Manticore seized (or turned away) any non-SL flagged ships carrying SL owned or bound for the SL that passed through the Junction. At the time, about the only other Star Nations ships which WERE prohibited to pass through the Junction or who's transshipped cargos on neutral shipping would have been seized was Haven.
Will there be legal actions against the MMM ships that went home as ordered....sure. Will they be sucessful? We have no idea. On the other hand, it could be tough to make the case that the MMM ships could lawfully ignore that return order or that Manticore (and on a ship by ship basis) the various MMM vessels profited from the theft or diversion of materials which were the held in storage for later or return when the ships were ordered out of SL space. Did they violate or fail to honor the various contracts for carriage as well as "failure to deliver by x time" clauses---probably not in the face of a legal order of their Government.
Perhaps we might even see a short story about once of these cases, but I think were are getting a bit deep in the weeds in detail ....big smile...Need another book real soon.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:However, we have to take that with a grain of salt. We are indeed told that some two thirds of all League shipping went on a Manticore-flagged hull for at least a part of its journey. Lacoön One only affected Manticore ships in League space, not this totality. All the shipping that included transshipping to a Manticore hull outside of League space should continue undisturbed. And shipping that required going into the League can adopt this mode of transport, which does indeed cause higher costs for the clients and lower revenues for both shippers (definitely less for Manticore tax base), but it still allows Manticore ships to be used. They'll save some on having shorter trips.

And the most economically advantageous parts of the journey for the freight to be on a Manticore-flagged hull is the hops through the Junction and along any other wormholes where Manticore has enough influence to get preferential transit fee discounts. And, as you note, that can continue under Lacoön One.

So while pulling Manticoral-flagged hulls out of League territory during Lacoön One would create a shipping shortfall within the League - they're probably not a massive player there. For example there's no reason they'd be involved in shipping that isn't situated to take advantage of the wormhole network -- so shipments between nearby core worlds.

And to the extent they did have presence within League territory
I'd assume that economics would dictate that non-Manticoran shippers would flock to fill that void, ones that normally serviced the Andermani, Haven, or other profitable parts of the Verge (they'd be lured into the League routes by decreased competition from Manticore and increased rates as League businesses and world pay to keep goods moving). And that in turn would let much of the Manticoral-flagged ships move outwards and pick up the non-League routes those other ships were leaving (that's not going to be as profitable - but it'll help keep the lights on. And the ones mostly focusing on shuttling transshipped cargo through the Manticoran wormhole network can keep right on doing that - its still cheaper than sending the cargo through the network on anybody else's hulls.

All that seems to make Lacoön One disruptive and, depending on how courts later rules on penalty clauses for breaking contracts vs Force Majeure, possibly very painful for individual shipping companies, but not an economic catastrophe. It shouldn't be crippling for anybody's economy once the initial supply chain disruptions work themselves out.

But back to the original question - before the increased tensions with the League what do you do with the Silesian yards.

Clearly Sarnow has no immediate trust of the SCN since he's ordered their ships scrapped rather than trying to use them as a territorial patrol to shore up his badly overstreatched forces.

Sure, they're not even up to their weight in 1905 RMN designs -- but they'd help drive off local pirates (assuming they didn't turn pirate themselves).

So if he doesn't trust the SCN personnel then he's no reason either build more of the warships they can currently make, nor to look at upgrading them to build modern light warships -- he wouldn't have a trusted source of crew for them. So why risk putting modern military tech capability into yards where it might be quite vulnerable to espionage. (Ok, technically, if he could wave a magic wand and get modern light units he's got the crews of his current obsolete RMN light units that he could put aboard direct replacement modern equivalents. But that's not enough of an advantage to risk upgrading those yards to make those ships).

Now what he might do, on the warship side, is have some of them start building corvettes using SCN tech. Those IIRC lack hyper drives, so basically a destroyer or light cruiser that can't leave its system (well, unless it's carried by a freighter or something). Some companies operated those in Silesia to sidestep the old government's restrictions on private armed warships -- as they're not seen as having a risk of turning pirate. Those Sarnow might be willing to trust old SCN crews to operate -- since they're a lower proliferation risk. (And while the RMN would never operate them for themselves; they've got LAC wings for that, they also seem unlikely to give the tech for modern LACs to Silesian yards or put those LACs into former SCN crews' hands)

On the one hand ships stuck in a system with nothing to do but chase off pirates, or at least unable to run away if they get up to bad behavior, aren't the security headache that hyper capable ex-SCN combatants would be; and it'd keep the crews employed and thus not idling around disgruntled. OTOTH rubbing the ex-SCN crews' noses into the fact that you don't trust them and are perfectly willing to put them on ships you wouldn't inflict on your own navy's crews doesn't seem like a recipe for getting great service out of those ships and crews.

So most likely in the short term he'll use the yards to scrap the ex-SCN ships, and longer turn look for civilian contracts for them -- winding down their military building and repair capabilities. But whether that'll be profitable for the yards is very much an open question (even before Lacoön Two temporarily floods the market with idle freighters)

As new citizens of SEM, the owners of merchant shipping of formerly SC systems should be able to reflag their vessels under SEM and use the SEM owned wormholes at a standard SEM discount.

Not sure how fast some of those types of benefits become available to those SC citizens who are now SEM citizens. I seem to remember various benefits are going to be phased in....unlike Talbot which petitioned to join SEM and agreed to a lot of basic criteria up front.

The other question is can the ships involved pass SEM inspection and meet basic SEM flagging requirements. That a ship can go into and navigate in hyper doesn't mean it can meet licensing standards of SEM. Same thing with licensing "papers" for the officers and crews. If a ship flagged by the SC was operating on a route or charters that took it through the MWJ, that was one thing- bringing the ship up to standards of MMM is a differnt discussion.
We are not privy to the criteria to hold Masters licenses in Manticore, SL, the former SC or anywhere else. Same for lower ranks in the various merchant services.

Sarnow (or his designate) is going to have to set up a system to re-acredit under SEM regulations and then process persons and ships over a period of time. Not something that will be an overnight thing nor sometimes a given if the ships/masters/crews only worked within Silesia and never used the MWJ or similar to go beyond Silesia.

At the very least, any new-builds are going to need to meet SEM standards. Existing ships probably will have some time period to retrofit or make such modifications as to meet those standards, at least for moving outside of the SEM Silesia area. More bureaucracy.

Sarnow also has to decide where (and how) to locate a RMN yard with that area of the former SC to start producing modern RMN ships including LACs. Sidemore is remaining independent although it does had a function REM yard and provide support. The Silesian yard facility, at least, is going to be limited in what it can new-build though it is going to need facilities and manufacturing to repair and upgrade RMN ships. Going to need people with Treecats to vet all sorts of personal and subcontractors (and their employers) to avoid dropping all that leading edge tech into the local criminal networks.

Brigade XO wrote:As new citizens of SEM, the owners of merchant shipping of formerly SC systems should be able to reflag their vessels under SEM and use the SEM owned wormholes at a standard SEM discount.

Not sure how fast some of those types of benefits become available to those SC citizens who are now SEM citizens. I seem to remember various benefits are going to be phased in....unlike Talbot which petitioned to join SEM and agreed to a lot of basic criteria up front.

The other question is can the ships involved pass SEM inspection and meet basic SEM flagging requirements. That a ship can go into and navigate in hyper doesn't mean it can meet licensing standards of SEM. Same thing with licensing "papers" for the officers and crews. If a ship flagged by the SC was operating on a route or charters that took it through the MWJ, that was one thing- bringing the ship up to standards of MMM is a differnt discussion.
We are not privy to the criteria to hold Masters licenses in Manticore, SL, the former SC or anywhere else. Same for lower ranks in the various merchant services.

Sarnow (or his designate) is going to have to set up a system to re-acredit under SEM regulations and then process persons and ships over a period of time. Not something that will be an overnight thing nor sometimes a given if the ships/masters/crews only worked within Silesia and never used the MWJ or similar to go beyond Silesia.

At the very least, any new-builds are going to need to meet SEM standards. Existing ships probably will have some time period to retrofit or make such modifications as to meet those standards, at least for moving outside of the SEM Silesia area. More bureaucracy.

Sarnow also has to decide where (and how) to locate a RMN yard with that area of the former SC to start producing modern RMN ships including LACs. Sidemore is remaining independent although it does had a function REM yard and provide support. The Silesian yard facility, at least, is going to be limited in what it can new-build though it is going to need facilities and manufacturing to repair and upgrade RMN ships. Going to need people with Treecats to vet all sorts of personal and subcontractors (and their employers) to avoid dropping all that leading edge tech into the local criminal networks.

Typically you have to crew your ship with citizen of the flag you fly, and at the very least the officers need to be credentialed by the flag state. I'm sure they are not citizens of the SKM, not so sure about the SEM. Last I remember they were more a territory than a member.

But it might work, not sure David has provided enough info on how flag states work and what exactly the status of the people in the territory.