Russian “False-Flag” operations in the Ukraine

n7axw wrote:

Arol wrote:Ok then, the Russians have shut down Nord Stream 1! Ostensibly to “repair” a leak somewhere in the pipeline; not for the first time since the war started, but this time the consensus is that it won’t start up again.
Their usage of the “repair” excuse for reducing gas deliveries is running a bit threadbare. Why don’t they come out and call it what it is: tit for tat for the injunctions!
But they do have to have their euphemism!
Case in point using: “Special Military Operations” instead of WAR!
To most people; but apparently not Russians:…If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, tastes like a duck, then there’s a good chance it’s a duck!!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

I see an article where it is stated that the repairs will be complete on Saturday. I wonder if I am being a bit naive for hoping that it might be so. I also read that Germany can get through winter without too much stress with a bit of help from Norway and the Netherlands. Maybe knowing this takes away Putin's interest in shutting off the valve. Just as well keep the cash coming. He might be surprised by Germany's response...

Don

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Well as expected Nord Stream 1 remains closed for maintenance; proving again what Russian assurances are worth!
Using their energy supplies were in the cards all along, it was just a matter of when; not if, they would play it.
Putin’s diplomatic attempt prior to the war to divide NATO and the EU backfired miserably! So now he’ll use energy supplies to give it another go.
Don’t know about the Dutch, but the dry summer here in Europe; with reduced water in rivers, is putting a bit of a kibosh on those countries depending on Hydro Electric generating capacity.
So here in Europe we are looking at a cold dark winter. Restrictions are already being imposed in some countries in respect to heating and electricity consumption.
Hope like hell we can keep it at restrictions, and avoid rationing!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

Looks like Nuclear Power will suddenly become a far more attractive and publicly-approved power source, especially since over the past few decades, it's become more efficient and produced less in the way of radioactive waste that needs to be buried.

In the long run, we may be looking at a rather startling decline in the use of fossil fuels for power and with the research on nuclear fusion being promoted/accelerated, Russia may find itself with billions of gallons of oil that very few people actually want...

Saudi Arabia and the others in OPEC might be starting to get a little worried at this point...

Michael Everett wrote:Looks like Nuclear Power will suddenly become a far more attractive and publicly-approved power source, especially since over the past few decades, it's become more efficient and produced less in the way of radioactive waste that needs to be buried.

In the long run, we may be looking at a rather startling decline in the use of fossil fuels for power and with the research on nuclear fusion being promoted/accelerated, Russia may find itself with billions of gallons of oil that very few people actually want...

Saudi Arabia and the others in OPEC might be starting to get a little worried at this point...

The Law of Unintended Consequences has certainly been the bane of Putin this last year! It has chewed his butt on the diplomatic and war fronts.
One can hope for a hat trick on the economic front!

I saw an interview with one of the Saudi Princes a few years back. He said that his great grandfather herded donkeys and goats from camel back, and if an alternative to oil was developed his great grandkids would be back there. That I believe is why they have started investing in productive assets rather than only excessive luxuries.

Michael Everett wrote:Looks like Nuclear Power will suddenly become a far more attractive and publicly-approved power source, especially since over the past few decades, it's become more efficient and produced less in the way of radioactive waste that needs to be buried.

In the long run, we may be looking at a rather startling decline in the use of fossil fuels for power and with the research on nuclear fusion being promoted/accelerated, Russia may find itself with billions of gallons of oil that very few people actually want...

Saudi Arabia and the others in OPEC might be starting to get a little worried at this point...

Arol wrote:
Well as expected Nord Stream 1 remains closed for maintenance; proving again what Russian assurances are worth!
Using their energy supplies were in the cards all along, it was just a matter of when; not if, they would play it.
Putin’s diplomatic attempt prior to the war to divide NATO and the EU backfired miserably! So now he’ll use energy supplies to give it another go.
Don’t know about the Dutch, but the dry summer here in Europe; with reduced water in rivers, is putting a bit of a kibosh on those countries depending on Hydro Electric generating capacity.
So here in Europe we are looking at a cold dark winter. Restrictions are already being imposed in some countries in respect to heating and electricity consumption.
Hope like hell we can keep it at restrictions, and avoid rationing!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

Around here most heating is natural gas or propane. Electricity is produced mostly by fossil fuel plants. Hydroelectric is a tiny proportion of the whole so doesn't impact us much.

Right on about Putin. I was naive. But Russia is going to pay a horrible price for this. Look at the network of Russia's pipelines. Those wells up on Russia's northern perimeter will need to be redrilled. You can't just shut this stuff down. Whether you run lines to the east or back to Europe, some one has to do it and it has to be paid for. By the time they can get the network up and running, will it be worth it? The renewables are coming. Already there are large chunks of the world where renewables are competitive with fossil fuels. The rest of the world will soon follow suit. Can Russia even afford it? Will it be worth it? Dunno. I'm really no analyst. But it looks to me like Russia is screwed. Hence my naivete (sp). I was thinking that Putin would stop digging the well deeper. I was wrong.

Don

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n7axw wrote:

Arol wrote:
Well as expected Nord Stream 1 remains closed for maintenance; proving again what Russian assurances are worth!
Using their energy supplies were in the cards all along, it was just a matter of when; not if, they would play it.
Putin’s diplomatic attempt prior to the war to divide NATO and the EU backfired miserably! So now he’ll use energy supplies to give it another go.
Don’t know about the Dutch, but the dry summer here in Europe; with reduced water in rivers, is putting a bit of a kibosh on those countries depending on Hydro Electric generating capacity.
So here in Europe we are looking at a cold dark winter. Restrictions are already being imposed in some countries in respect to heating and electricity consumption.
Hope like hell we can keep it at restrictions, and avoid rationing!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

Around here most heating is natural gas or propane. Electricity is produced mostly by fossil fuel plants. Hydroelectric is a tiny proportion of the whole so doesn't impact us much.

Right on about Putin. I was naive. But Russia is going to pay a horrible price for this. Look at the network of Russia's pipelines. Those wells up on Russia's northern perimeter will need to be redrilled. You can't just shut this stuff down. Whether you run lines to the east or back to Europe, some one has to do it and it has to be paid for. By the time they can get the network up and running, will it be worth it? The renewables are coming. Already there are large chunks of the world where renewables are competitive with fossil fuels. The rest of the world will soon follow suit. Can Russia even afford it? Will it be worth it? Dunno. I'm really no analyst. But it looks to me like Russia is screwed. Hence my naivete (sp). I was thinking that Putin would stop digging the well deeper. I was wrong.

Don

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You’re certainly correct about the heightened interest for “renewable” energy sources. Even before Putin sat off on his misadventure, the exploitation of renewable energy sources was already on the upswing over here; especially off-shore windmill parks. The ongoing energy shortage has only intensified the effort, especially with the EU tossing some hefty subsidies into the pot.
But it’s not just “renewables” that are reaping some benefits from the crisis! Also some of the old “nasties” are reawakening, like nuclear power plants and coal fired plants. All across Europe these plants; many due to be dismantled, are instead being given a new lease on life.
Just when the environmentalist had finally raised enough awareness of climate change and its causes, an energy shortfall puts their plans on hold.
After all…when need arises!

Basically a bump in the road unless this comes to be a permanent rather than temporary fix. As for nuclear, I would prefer fusion rather than fission. I wonder what the hold up is..

At any rate, it looks like Putin is screwed. I wonder how long the war will last... I find myself humming the tune "I'll be home for Christmas..." Don't know if it will happen, of course. But I can always hope...

Don

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n7axw wrote:Basically a bump in the road unless this comes to be a permanent rather than temporary fix. As for nuclear, I would prefer fusion rather than fission. I wonder what the hold up is..

At any rate, it looks like Putin is screwed. I wonder how long the war will last... I find myself humming the tune "I'll be home for Christmas..." Don't know if it will happen, of course. But I can always hope...

Don

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I’d characterize it more as a stretch of very rocky road, rather than a “bump”. It’s going to take a while to fill the shortfall left by Russia shutting the valve on over 60% of Europe’s energy needs. So refurbished nuclear and coal fired plants are going to be with us for a while.
As for Putin being “screwed”?
He’s certainly hurting militarily and economically. But going back to the “hurt” bear metaphor, is therefore even more unpredictable and dangerous. Hurt and pushed into a corner he’s still got the option of dropping the ridiculous pretense of his “Special Military Operation”, and declares war on Ukraine!
That would make it a whole new ball game!

Possibly true, and I acknowledge your superior knowledge on this topic.
However, an actual declaration of war may have come to late, after he as attrited so much of his relevant resources.
Already using Soviet Era equipment, having trouble getting recruits, declaring war and seeking a general mobilisation may finally turn the brainwashed population against him.
Then Vlad the unbalanced man, may well decide that he will get away with just one little nuke on Kiev, as (like many right wing dictators) he may make the mistake of believing the western democracies are effete and soft.

Arol wrote:

n7axw wrote:Basically a bump in the road unless this comes to be a permanent rather than temporary fix. As for nuclear, I would prefer fusion rather than fission. I wonder what the hold up is..

At any rate, it looks like Putin is screwed. I wonder how long the war will last... I find myself humming the tune "I'll be home for Christmas..." Don't know if it will happen, of course. But I can always hope...

Don

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I’d characterize it more as a stretch of very rocky road, rather than a “bump”. It’s going to take a while to fill the shortfall left by Russia shutting the valve on over 60% of Europe’s energy needs. So refurbished nuclear and coal fired plants are going to be with us for a while.
As for Putin being “screwed”?
He’s certainly hurting militarily and economically. But going back to the “hurt” bear metaphor, is therefore even more unpredictable and dangerous. Hurt and pushed into a corner he’s still got the option of dropping the ridiculous pretense of his “Special Military Operation”, and declares war on Ukraine!
That would make it a whole new ball game!

Daryl wrote:he may make the mistake of believing the western democracies are effete and soft.

We are.
In pretty much the same way as a marshmallow-wrapped anvil...