Russian “False-Flag” operations in the Ukraine

The recent missile strike on Odessa’s port does raise an interesting perspective.
Namely WHY?
The Russians must have known; probably since their naval blockade was established, the location of the targeted ship. They could have sunk it at time?
So why was it less than 24 hours after a “form” of agreement was reached with the Ukrainian’s was reached, that they felt this was the right time to attack the port?
To send a message, but to whom?
The people and defenders of Odessa; as well as the rest of Ukraine, have had ample proof that the enemy is at the gate. So if not to them, who?
It might simply be Russia flexing its muscles, but the venue doesn’t make sense. They are already considered pariahs by a much of the world. So is it really to their advantage to be seen as endangering food from reaching people facing starvation?
That plus the shitstorm they are facing in the media and from leading politicians the world over.
Case in point, wonder how the Turkish Defense Minister liked being played by his Russian counterpart?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-07-23/

Arol wrote:The recent missile strike on Odessa’s port does raise an interesting perspective.
Namely WHY?

Setting aside any speculations about that is was planned for some unknown reason, it may be as simple as a communication failure or a military commander doing as he pleases. It wouldn't be the first time Russian units doing things out of "lockstep".

Regardless, all it did was to further cement Russia as untrustworthy in all things.

Good points raised by all.
I wonder if it wasn't just a plain finger raised to the world, saying that you can't tell Russia how to behave.
There does seem to be an excessive amount of jingoistic bombast coming from them.
When a country's economic clout is best measured by its GDP, it is interesting that Russia's is in the group comprising Canada, South Korea, and Australia. Worthy countries all, but none are super powers. All Russia has left from their Soviet Union and Russian Empire days are the legacy nukes, yet they still behave as if they believe they are a super power. Talking about a new huge ICBM system, hypersonic missiles, now a new space station. Yet they have been reduced to using 1960s tanks against their smaller neighbour.

Well it seems that Erdogan is going to go right down to the wire, with his “extortionist” gambit.
18 NATO members have signed off on Sweden’s and Finland’s membership. 11others are as good as certain, that leaves just Erdogan in the catbird seat!
He’s got to know that his demand for the extradition of the 85 Kurds to Turkey is not going to happen.
So you have to wonder what his game is!
Maybe he is pissed off that these two Democratic nations were able to buy 2-3 dozen F-35’s, and he had to settle for F-16’s.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/e ... militants/

Daryl wrote:Good points raised by all.
I wonder if it wasn't just a plain finger raised to the world, saying that you can't tell Russia how to behave.
There does seem to be an excessive amount of jingoistic bombast coming from them.
When a country's economic clout is best measured by its GDP, it is interesting that Russia's is in the group comprising Canada, South Korea, and Australia. Worthy countries all, but none are super powers. All Russia has left from their Soviet Union and Russian Empire days are the legacy nukes, yet they still behave as if they believe they are a super power. Talking about a new huge ICBM system, hypersonic missiles, now a new space station. Yet they have been reduced to using 1960s tanks against their smaller neighbour.

I am not sure that it is possible to get Putin to negotiate in good faith. He is much worse than Stalin who would at least keep a deal when it was in Russia's best interest. Putin doesn't even do that.

It will be interesting to see how Ukraine's counter offensive goes

By the way does anyone have access to current numbers on the size of the Russian and Ukrainian armies? How much progress has Ukraine made in arming its reserves and new recruits?

Don

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n7axw wrote:

Daryl wrote:Good points raised by all.
I wonder if it wasn't just a plain finger raised to the world, saying that you can't tell Russia how to behave.
There does seem to be an excessive amount of jingoistic bombast coming from them.
When a country's economic clout is best measured by its GDP, it is interesting that Russia's is in the group comprising Canada, South Korea, and Australia. Worthy countries all, but none are super powers. All Russia has left from their Soviet Union and Russian Empire days are the legacy nukes, yet they still behave as if they believe they are a super power. Talking about a new huge ICBM system, hypersonic missiles, now a new space station. Yet they have been reduced to using 1960s tanks against their smaller neighbour.

I am not sure that it is possible to get Putin to negotiate in good faith. He is much worse than Stalin who would at least keep a deal when it was in Russia's best interest. Putin doesn't even do that.

It will be interesting to see how Ukraine's counter offensive goes

By the way does anyone have access to current numbers on the size of the Russian and Ukrainian armies? How much progress has Ukraine made in arming its reserves and new recruits?

Don

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That’s because Putin is a Stalin wanna-be, but alas: as is often the case with wanna-be’s without the skill set; whether for good or evil, of the person trying to be emulated!
As for the question regarding the Ukrainian Army, your guess is as good as mine. Check three war-tracking threads in as many Fora, you get three different figures.
My guess is that there are any numbers of professional intelligence analysts across the world trying to parse that question.

If you are interested in the more tactical/strategic aspects of the conflict, you should try to google the name: Mick Ryan a retired Australian major General.
He’s got a quite extensive war-tracking Twitter feed if you are able; I’m not, but I’ve seen his product copied in a number war-tracking feeds, both battle maps, with insightful and concise analysis.

A good article on the Ukrainian Armed Forces need for a cohesive strategy.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine ... at-russia/

“Playing both ends against the middle”, can be very profitable, but at some point the huckster will have to choose sides!
You have to wonder; when the other NATO members have given their affirmation on Sweden and Finland joining the Alliance, what the repercussions would be if Turkey hold steadfast in their ultimatums?
https://www.ft.com/content/00badf9e-f0d ... c1c2207835

Ok then, the Russians have shut down Nord Stream 1! Ostensibly to “repair” a leak somewhere in the pipeline; not for the first time since the war started, but this time the consensus is that it won’t start up again.
Their usage of the “repair” excuse for reducing gas deliveries is running a bit threadbare. Why don’t they come out and call it what it is: tit for tat for the injunctions!
But they do have to have their euphemism!
Case in point using: “Special Military Operations” instead of WAR!
To most people; but apparently not Russians:…If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, tastes like a duck, then there’s a good chance it’s a duck!!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

Arol wrote:Ok then, the Russians have shut down Nord Stream 1! Ostensibly to “repair” a leak somewhere in the pipeline; not for the first time since the war started, but this time the consensus is that it won’t start up again.
Their usage of the “repair” excuse for reducing gas deliveries is running a bit threadbare. Why don’t they come out and call it what it is: tit for tat for the injunctions!
But they do have to have their euphemism!
Case in point using: “Special Military Operations” instead of WAR!
To most people; but apparently not Russians:…If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, tastes like a duck, then there’s a good chance it’s a duck!!!
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62766867

I see an article where it is stated that the repairs will be complete on Saturday. I wonder if I am being a bit naive for hoping that it might be so. I also read that Germany can get through winter without too much stress with a bit of help from Norway and the Netherlands. Maybe knowing this takes away Putin's interest in shutting off the valve. Just as well keep the cash coming. He might be surprised by Germany's response...

Don

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