Future Naval sizes

drothgery wrote:

Daryl wrote:I agree. Previously I've said that I don't get the message of a sovereign entity fighting for its existence. It all seems to be business as usual.

... even though in fact Manticore (pre-expansion) had a far larger percentage of its population under arms than anyone but Grayson. I always thought it was weird that people got that impression Haven was digging deeper than Manticore; Manticore had a way, way larger percentage of its population and of its GDP committed to the military than Haven did. And the League spent peanuts per capita on the SLN (which despite being huge in absolute terms, was tiny per capita even compared to the RHN).

Haven had a weaker education system and a large percentage of its citizens unproductive. Then there were the Haven citizens that were added within the previous 100 years, many with prolong so not exactly the most willing to fight for the nation that conquered them. We didn't get all that great of a look into the inner working of Haven and their occupation of their conquered systems, army size etc... they could have had a significantly larger portion of their military tied down keeping their new citizens from rebelling.

As for Manticore, they are a democracy and a good chunk of the leadership doesn't believe that there is a threat or is not all that concerned with the threat as thy are with domestic politics. The government can't act/react the same way they want without risking loosing power and risking the opposition forming a government and neglecting the military.

The 2 sides had a very different reason that they couldn't commit a larger percentage of their population to the war effort before hostilities commenced.

Out by Talbot you had the Meyers system- which Mike H moved on just prior to heading to Mesa. Meyer was Vereccoi (spelling) was hanging out as OFS Governor, and it was the SLN FF nodal base with BC and then there was that squadron of DDs which was "hiding" behind it's moon and the Squadron Commander very reluctantly evacuated (and told Mike she had booby trapped them to prevent RMN from taking them over) It was also a planetary posting for OFS Intervention Battalions and there were a lot of troops what were surrendered from that even after one of it's Generals ate a KEW when RMN took out (or convinced the SLN ships then in orbit to surrender) before wiping out the IB troops that had been "putting down" the rebellion of the local President for Life. Mike shot her way into Meyer orbit through most of the FF fleet that was foolish enough to try and stop her. So there had been a bunch of SLN ships there and there would be more scattered about on "anti-piracy" work or supporting other OFS client System Rulers.

You get the feeling that OFS had FF out doing not-so-subtle intimidation of systems to maintain the OFS cash flow and keeping things calm for the trans-stellars. We saw a lot of that but typically in small groups of DD and CL sized ships being called in to "pacify" stuff in the "Storm from the Shadows stories. Then there was the other OFS governor who ordered a BC squadron to force a wormhole to "escort" a freighter though and -after the RMN commander had that end of the wormhole demonstrated he could have destroyed every one of the BC, the SLN commander decided on the wisdom of going away rather than having all of his people killed.

So mostly there a bunch of DDs and CL/CA/CHs doing the individual dirty work and now they are all going to get called home. How many we don't really know but that is only ONE small area of the Fringe that we see.....there is a lot of area around the Core and Shell of the League. We also don't see anything near Hennesy and it's not clear if Erwhon was "helping" out any systems beyond the SEM terminus and more local systems in the way of commerce protection. Motstly because it wasn't germaine to the greater plot line.

No hard numbers on the below-the Wall for SLN

Relax wrote:And both statements are still laughable. Even if we add up 100% of ALL Navy/Marines/Army/Workforce assembly + manufacturing we are still describing 1% of the population if we assume 30 million(WAY above what the books represent) in RMN service. If you use 1% of working age population that in effect means you are fighting a "WAR TO THE DEATH" using ~1% of GDP. Pull the other leg.

I just go with his earlier book GDP numbers when describing Grayson/Endicott in Honor of the Queen for the real status and his numbers regarding number of hulls in service and assembly/manufacturing are complete hooey. Of course DW originally also had his ships VASTLY +4X bigger than they are currently until the great resizing, so this should also play into why we see a LARGE discrepancy, though this should mean even more workers, but apparently it is too difficult to build robots which build the ships as it is quite apparent from number of humans present in the manufacturing process, human hands do not touch these ships in the construction phase.

Just an FYI, there are half a million plumbers in the USA and Half a million electricians and a half million HVAC for a population of 300,000,000. Vast majority of whom are in NEW construction, something that will be absent in a prolong society and these guys who are interested in working with their hands would 100% be available for building ships/manning them in the HV. Even if we assume 1/3 are for maintenance, still frees up 1 Million. This on a population of 300M. Project this number of freed up people to 3Billion(Manticore) and we get 10Million free There are roughly 10 million Oil and Gas workers most of whom would be out of work in the future due to fusion energy and solar collectors with beamed power from space. Translate this to 3Billion would be 100Million available. Heavy construction is another 1M in USA translates to 10 Million available in HV. 2 million in USA in Aerospace translates into 20 Million available in HV. 2 Million in USA in Vehicle production translates into another 20 million available. Etc etc etc. And another 1.5M+ in the Military and from these numbers alone Manticore should have 15Million available when at peace.

Manticore should have hundreds of millions available in peace time for building/manning its ships even if we assume a society without prelong. Manticore with prelong should literally have 1 Billion people available in peace time for heavy manufacturing industry with relevant capabilities, skills, for war time production

So, either humanity is the lazyiest bunch of uneducated idiots in 10,000 years of human history or economics in the HV are complete.....

About 1.3% of the US population is farmers, in 1860 it was ~50% in 1800 it was ~80%. With technological changes comes decrease in some workforces and increase in others. For example Auto mechanic, airplane mechanic were non existent in 1800 but are a portion of the work force today. For Rome 90% of their population lived and worked on farms 2,000 years ago yet today its a significantly smaller percentage.

With technological progress comes new trades, new fields and new jobs that David Weber did not get into. Using 2022 jobs and occupations to determine the workforce of 1905 honorvese is about as useful as someone in 1800 wondering where all the American farmers went and assuming that 78.7% of the population is now unemployed since only 1.3% of Americans live and work on farms.

With technological progress jobs appear and disappear, just because the books didn't do a deep dive of the economy and workforce doesn't mean that the majority of the workforce is lazing around. In 2,000 years, if humanity is still around there will be jobs that we cannot even imagine now because there are technologies we have not invented yet. I doubt someone in 1800 imagined the cellphone repair technician and the pilots, just as they were blind to our current workforce, jobs and potential so are we for workforces 2,000+ years in the future.

Sigs wrote:
2,300 SD’s @ ~6,000 people per ship is 13,800,000 people
4,600 BC’s @ ~2,000 people per ship is 9,200,000 people
1,000 CA’s @ ~1,100 people per ship is 1,100,000 people
4,000 CL’s @ ~ 500 people per ship is 2,000,000 people
4,000 DD’s @~ 400 people per ship is 1,600,000 people

For a grand total of 27.7 million people with a fleet of 15,900 combat ships of all classes.

For DD’s I used a Bastogne Class ship because I couldn’t find the crew numbers for the SLN equivalents but I assume they would be similar.
For CL’s I used Illustrious Class because I couldn’t find the equivalents for the SLN
For CA’s I used Broadsword Class for the same reasons as above
For BC’s I used Indefatigable Class ships
For SD’s I used Scientist Class @ 6,000 people but its likely they are somewhat higher.

This doesn’t account for support ships like logistics and marine transports and assault ships. The SLN has their SD’s along with a number of BC’s, CA’s, CL’s and DD’s in Battle Fleet while the bulk of their BC’s, CA’s, CL’s and DD’s deployed with Frontier Fleet. Frontier Fleet wasn’t responsible for the protectorates only, they had to have presence in systems that are not officially protectorates but are in fact protectorates in every but in officially.

Thanks for the reply, finally saw it. Somehow I missed it.

NITS: One reason our numbers are so much different:

1) We are told in MoH Scientist class ships have ~6500 upwards to 7000 compared to RMN SD's with 5000-->5500.

2) BC's Indafatiguable, I thought we were told they had 2200-->2500?

3) I think the Broadsword numbers are a bit high and I used the numbers out Honor of the Queen and Star Knight class. Your broadsword numbers which I have no idea where you got, though an old memory does think there were comparisons between braodsword/star knight but I cannot place where exactly? SVW maybe? Or was it from the tactical simulator stuff I never bought? Maybe SLN CA's are more manpower heavy? I did use the numbers from OBS/HoTQ for the lighter ships and you could be right that SLN ships have 100 more people per ship than Manticore. This aspect of manning would drastically decrease the numbers quite a bit.

Sigs wrote:

Relax wrote:And both statements are still laughable. Even if we add up 100% of ALL Navy/Marines/Army/Workforce assembly + manufacturing we are still describing 1% of the population if we assume 30 million(WAY above what the books represent) in RMN service. If you use 1% of working age population that in effect means you are fighting a "WAR TO THE DEATH" using ~1% of GDP. Pull the other leg.

With technological progress jobs appear and disappear, just because the books didn't do a deep dive of the economy and workforce

Wrongo, but why? Because the number of people required for the basics of life as technology advances becomes ever FEWER to do the same amount of work.

So, what we can 100% guarantee is that FEWER people will be required for farming, energy infrastructure freeing up ever more people to build/man ships etc in the future than today. It does not mean MORE jobs are required for a more prosperous future, yes different jobs, but not required jobs. All one has to look at are the vast numbers of singers/musicians in today's society or the number of people in pedicures, barbers etc which never used to exist. None are actually required to fight a war unless of course you are not actually fighting a war for your survival. WWII Germany had very few musicians. They were sent to the factories or the front lines.

Sigs wrote:
The Gendarmerie seems to have offices not just in protectorates but in League core and shell systems which might represent more of a federal police force as well as force to crush the protectorates and verge systems when they step out of line.

The Gendarmerie seem to have several roles, some mentioned above:
-Federal Law Enforcement, including smuggling, drug running, anti-slavery
-Headbreaking for OFS, client states, and the odd interstellar
-Agents provocuteur for OFS (and the MA, at need and one remove)
-Intelligence gathering in support of the above

The second and third roles should disappear. Most of those involved in these roles should be discharged, many tried for crimes, some shot or hanged.

Brigade XO wrote:Out by Talbot you had the Meyers system- which Mike H moved on just prior to heading to Mesa. Meyer was Vereccoi (spelling) was hanging out as

Verrocchio, same as Andrea del Verrocchio, the Florentine sculptor and painter who is recognised as Leonardo da Vinci's teacher.

OFS Governor, and it was the SLN FF nodal base with BC and then there was that squadron of DDs which was "hiding" behind it's moon and the Squadron Commander very reluctantly evacuated (and told Mike she had booby trapped them to prevent RMN from taking them over) It was also a planetary posting for OFS Intervention Battalions and there were a lot of troops what were surrendered from that even after one of it's Generals ate a KEW when RMN took out (or convinced the SLN ships then in orbit to surrender) before wiping out the IB troops that had been "putting down" the rebellion of the local President for Life. Mike shot her way into Meyer orbit through most of the FF fleet that was foolish enough to try and stop her. So there had been a bunch of SLN ships there and there would be more scattered about on "anti-piracy" work or supporting other OFS client System Rulers.

Meyers wasn't an SLN FF nodal base. The only nodal base we're told about is the one in Warner, the same of the Warner-Mannerheim Warp Bridge, and that's the reason it is there. Warner is also one week's travel from Sarduchi, home to a terminus of the warp bridge to Włocłæwek, which makes quick deployment of FF assets to the Madras sector very quick from the League Core.

There are likely other nodal bases nearby. For example, I expect McIntosh had a big presence, because it was home to an OFS regional HQ.

Meyers was simply the capital of the Madras Sector (not the Madras System), so it did have a bigger presence than the other systems in the sector.

You get the feeling that OFS had FF out doing not-so-subtle intimidation of systems to maintain the OFS cash flow and keeping things calm for the trans-stellars. We saw a lot of that but typically in small groups of DD and CL sized ships being called in to "pacify" stuff in the "Storm from the Shadows stories. Then there was the other OFS governor who ordered a BC squadron to force a wormhole to "escort" a freighter though and -after the RMN commander had that end of the wormhole demonstrated he could have destroyed every one of the BC, the SLN commander decided on the wisdom of going away rather than having all of his people killed.

It was a tad more than "a feeling."

So mostly there a bunch of DDs and CL/CA/CHs doing the individual dirty work and now they are all going to get called home. How many we don't really know but that is only ONE small area of the Fringe that we see.....there is a lot of area around the Core and Shell of the League. We also don't see anything near Hennesy and it's not clear if Erwhon was "helping" out any systems beyond the SEM terminus and more local systems in the way of commerce protection. Motstly because it wasn't germaine to the greater plot line.

No hard numbers on the below-the Wall for SLN

Another note: it was on the Verge, not the Fringe. The Verge is the next area abutting the League expansion, which is where the OFS was right now exploiting or thinking of expanding to in the short-term. The Fringe are systems much further out, with much more recent colonisation, such as out by the Matapan terminus of the MWHJ.

This is very ill-defined, though. The League is said to be an amorphous blob roughly 200 light-years in radius.... but Manticore is 512 light-years away from Sol and is said to be a Verge system by distance, if not by any of the economic and demographic factors that usually characterise such systems.

The only other sector we know about was the Maya Sector and we know that one had an SLN FF presence even smaller than Madras. Luis Roszak had a handful of DDs and CLs under his name and he was merely a Captain when we met him in 1919. And as I said before, Maya was atypical because it didn't need FF intimidation practices. But on the other hand, because it was prosperous, it would have needed better commerce protection than I imagine less than a dozen ships could have offered.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
That's correct, but only if they actually need that reserve too quickly. With an active fleet of 2500 wallers, the theory was that they could afford to take the time. 2500 wallers should have been able to fight everyone at the same time without uncovering critical nodes too much.

The problem with the SLN is that a fleet of 80 SD’s loose inside League territory can have free movement within 90%+ of the League territory. Even half that number will wreak a lot of systems and even with 100% of the reserve mobilized it still leaves a lot of systems many of them core and shell completely exposed.

You don't commit atrocities for fear of retaliation in kind, or escalating beyond what you've done. Your main job is to protect your population and you can't do that if the juggernaut comes to your system and smashes everything you have.

But that only takes you so far, if the juggernaut in question is coming wether you ant it or not you may not have a choice. You either sit around with your 300 SD’s and wait for 1,000 SLN SD’s to come and destroy your navy and then conquer your territory or you retaliate against the League knowing that you are done either way but you get some of your own back. 9 out of 10 nations might respond with fortifying their system but the 10th sends their fleet to League space and wreaks it with a fraction of the SLN’s strength.

This of course breaks down when there is no peer or superior power to deliver that punishment. If the RMN or RHN has the power to wreck 1500 systems before they're defeated, that means the disparity in capabilities is so great that they cannot effectively be kept in check. In fact, I have a hard time believing they could wreck 1500 systems and still lose the war in the first place, short of major strategic blunders.

You can easily wreak 1,500 systems if the vast majority of those systems have nothing more than a few DD’s/CL’s defending them if that and the fleet that is supposed to defend them can at most deploy 1-2 SD’s per system.

It’s one thing for me to show up in League space with 80 SD’s and escorts and split them into 20 task forces to wreak 20 systems, rearm and go do it again and again and again because even when the SLN redeploys to cover systems they can’t provide any security for the majority of their systems. They can try and ambush the task forces but you have to be really lucky or I would have to be really predictable to catch even a fraction of those forces.

Its a whole other thing if I were to show up in League space with 80 SD’s and escorts and face heavily industrialized systems with 20-40 SD’s per system plus escorts and less industrialized systems with smaller pickets while the SLN having a central force to respond and reinforce their member systems.

One sees an 80 SD fleet wreak havoc in League space until a) the SLN gets really lucky, b) my ships start falling apart forswear or tear c)I run out of ammunition or d)I get tired of destroying League systems.

The other option sees me using those same 80 SD’s to attack 1-2 systems at a time and for me to get through 1,500 systems would involve 750-1500 individual attacks and a larger chance of interception.

If the League had been paying attention, that situation would never have developed, at least not critically so. Any enemy that decided the situation was hopeless would have been too small to "make the League pay dearly.”

and the question is how do they take care of the problem without going into an arms race with the GA? If I remember correctly the League is supposed to have the industrial capacity equal to that of the rest of humanity. If I were in charge of the GA I would be making every effort I could to build up all those systems that have some stable government after the League left and all those systems that the SEM and Andermani Empire acquired as well as the 100+ systems in the republic that have been stifled for so long. In 40 years with proper attention to industry, education, infrastructure , military and diplomacy the GA might be able to field a force of tens of thousands of SD(P)’s all their own, maybe not equal to the SLN capabilities but they would be a force that can match the SLN especially with the geography of the wormholes giving the GA such an advantage.

Which is exactly why no one would have wanted to attract the League's attention in the first place. No one could do so much damage to the League that they had a hope in winning. And the first rule of warfare is that you don't start a war you can't win (you may delude yourself into thinking you can, but that's another story).

its not a question of winning though, its not a case of nation x attacking the League, its a matter of the League making it clear that they were going to attack nation x or actually carried out the attack. Its not a matter of winning so much as making the League pay for every system taken.

I really question that number. Just how was the PN going to do 600 times more damage to the League with battleships than what the League would do to Haven once it crossed the hyperwall with 1000 SDs?

Because Haven loses either way and even if the 1,000 SD’s destroy 100% fo the industry of Haven the RHN can send the BB’s to attack virtually defenceless systems.

The PN had 374 battleships, or just over 45 squadrons. Let's say they go in squadron-strength at 45 targets. What are those targets? They're definitely not the SLN Core systems with anchorage, because those have battle fleets of multiple SD squadrons.

How many of the 1,700 League members have a single SD let alone multiple squadrons as a picket? Taking 100% of the SLN’s active wall and splitting it by squadron you end up with the ability to cover 287 systems. You cover the core systems with a squadron each Haven can concentrate their BB’s and attack more important systems. If the SLN tries to defend everywhere the BB’s can cut through the SLN’s SD’s because they can outnumber them greatly in every engagement and it would still only cover 16% of their territory with a force that might just might present a challenge to anything less than 60 BB’s. True the League wins eventually but they pay a hefty price for their victory. Or the League decides to abandon more than 84% of their territory to the BB’s and concentrate on fewer and fewer systems to make them a tough nut to crack for even the entire force of 320 BB’s.

They're probably not going after the Frontier Fleet nodal bases either, because why pick a fight with battlecruisers? That means the juicier targets to wreck would be the Core systems with poor defences, like Hypatia. Only that means the message gets to Sol much more quickly, while the travel time for those BBs gets longer. Or they could attack Shell systems that are closer by, but the damage there is much lesser.

I don’t want a war but you do, I know that if we go to war I lose, I lose wether I stand and fight or go out and wreak your territory. The difference is that I make you pay dearly for attacking and conquering my territory. The League goes after poor systems that can’t field anything larger than a CA if that, but if they hit a system that had even a squadron of BC’s can do disproportionate amount of damage to the League even fi they are defeated at the end.

Lets say the US invades Canada and wipes out 8 trillion dollars out of the ~10 trillion dollars worth of national wealth but loses 30 trillion dollars out of the ~126 trillion dollars of national wealth because of Canada’s retaliation. Canada loses but even though the US technically wins they still lose.

So they may do considerable damage to 90 or 135 systems, which is ~7% of the number of systems in the League, and probably less than 5% of the League's industry. The cost for that is losing ALL of Haven and all of the Tier 1 colonies. The People's Republic would effectively cease to exist and would be occupied by a military government -- 100% loss.

This isn’t a case of I will invade and conquer the League, this is a case of I will send my fleet to destroy as much industry as I can because I know I lose either way. Im not talking about a war where Haven, Manticore or the Andermani CHOOSE to go to war with the League, I am talking about a case where they are FORCED into a war with the League. It becomes a case of staying in Manticore home system and dying while taking as many SLN SD’s with me or going into League space knowing that Haven ceases to exist but I will make the League pay for attacking me. This is once again a war the League forces onto someone else, a war that nation CANNOT escape.

If the SLN attacks Haven or Manticore their only way they win the war and win the war in a worthwhile way is if the opponent be it Manticore or Haven or both behave the way SLN doctrine requires them to, stay at home and wait for the SLN to attack. Because if they don’t behave the way the SLN needs them to and they instead decide to go to League space to wreak their industry there is absolutely nothing the League can do when 760 SD’s and DN’s, 370 BB’s, 280 BC’s, 540 CA’s, 650 CL’s and 1100 DD’s come knocking on their door.

The League has created a situation where they are o powerful that no one nation or a group of nations can hope to fight and win a war against the League short term or Long term, but the League has also created a situation where they are so weak they cannot realistically defend themselves against a minor threat let alone the GA. This is the equivalent of modern day nuclear weapons, you might beat me but I will make you pay for beating me.

No, it couldn't, not without the ability to refit and resupply multiple times. If the RMN decided to do that, Beowulf would block the terminus -- treaty or no treaty -- so they'd have to go the long way. And the PN would have had to go the long way too, because the Bolthole wormhole doesn't help that much.

You don’t have to refit if its not a long term war, this is a case of me sending some or all of my fleet to make you pay while I keep some or none of my fleet to fight you at home. This isn’t meant as a war strategy so much as a strategy of desperation. Load up all the ammunition you can carry, bring along the entire fleet train and do as much damage as you can before your ships fall apart or you run out of ammunition.

And don't forget everyone else. If the RMN or PN decided to start committing atrocities, the other one would take action. And the IAN too, plus a good chunk of the other three dozen Top Tier navies.

I’m not talking about the RMN or RHN wiping out civilians, I am talking about giving plenty of warning and destroying infrastructure knowing full well that there will be no kingdom or republic to go to. Manticore and Haven would have to be led by absolute brain dead morons to think they can go toe to toe with the SLN when technologically equal with hopes of victory. But if they knew that the SLN was attacking either one or both knowing there is nothing they can do to stop the SLN it opens a world of options.You can stay at home waiting for the SLN to come and pound you into the ground or you can go to the League knowing they will conquer your home, take as much ammunition and spares as you can and run free through League space for 2 to 3 years before you either run out of ammunition, run out of ships or the SLN gets lucky and stops you.

At that time, if the GF sent everything it had, it would have sent just short of 600 SDs plus 169 DNs. The SLN detachment at Sol was 400-450 SDs, plus what we have to assume are fixed defences. Without MDMs, that battle would have been inconclusive, with either the attackers withdrawing or suffering horrendous losses before getting to Earth orbit.

And if they can’t occupy sol because 20% of the SLN’s wallers are in one systems that means there are a hell of a lot of systems that are uncovered. The SLN has ~2,300 SD’s in active service and with the industry standard of 15% in refit at any one time that means there would be 1955 SD’s available for deployment. Putting ~25% of your available wallers in one system means that there are a whole host of other systems to choose from including major bases, splitting 760ND/SD’s into 8 ship squadron backed by 320 BB’s and and 2,700 lighter units I can go to the rest of the league that is defenceless because there are only so many places where the SLN can have 400 SD’s.

This is a strategy of desperation where a war is forced on you, if the enemy capital is heavily fortified and protected out of the limited fleet strength of the SLN that means that 95% of the rest of the League including almost all core and shell systems are uncovered or lightly defended. How many systems can have 400-450 SD’s as a picket? 4? 5? That leaves 99.7% of the League covered with SD’s that may have a few wallers but more likely have nothing but a few lighter units. The SLN may keep 5 systems but will leave the other 1745 systems undefended and even though Haven and Manticore cease to exist in the end the League loses as well.

It all goes back to that one thing, they are too strong for anyone to think of fighting them on equal footing technologically but are too weak to defend their territory for anyone who decides to make them pay for attacking.

And what would really happen to the other 1500 SDs if they manage to control Earth orbit and demand the League surrender? By this time, the GA would be composed of at best 100 SDs effective. How are they going to keep 750 of them from coming to each of their home systems and wrecking them?

Nothing will keep them that is why its a strategy of DESPERATION rather than of choice.

The SLN can beat the RMN if they go toe to toe because the SLN can field 7 times as many wallers as the RMN, but the SKM knows that and they can easily decide that they want the SLN to suffer and even if Sol is heavily defended the rest of the League is not and can suffer. Even if the SKM will no longer exist as an independent nation the League will suffer immensely for the war.

Again its a question of League being too strong for anyone to fight but exceptionally weak if the enemy in question decides to bring the fight to the League. How would the League members respond if 90-99% of the member systems were virtually abandoned by the SLN so much so that a handful of BC’s and DD’s can wreak a systems industry in a few days?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
And I have no doubt many members will be doing just that. From their point of view, they'd be totally right to do so.

And equally, I have no doubt no such thing will happen. The SLN will not grow to protect every single member world with an SD squadron or more. The theory behind the SLN's previous operating stance actually makes sense. It was deeply flawed in its execution, and cold comfort for those that did get attacked before it could respond, but it was an effective deterrent. And it's actually better for it to have peer powers now, because the SLN cannot be a bully any more.

The League can easily field 300 times what the RMN was able to field in 1905 unless the vast majority of the League is so under developed that its a handful of core systems with top notch economies and the rest are useless drains on resources. Thats 90,000 wallers and 400,000 lighter units.

They are very much under armed, and until the 1850’s they did not need much because nobody is crazy enough to fight them but post 1850 there are a number of nations with the military means to not win a war but make a League victory VERY expensive for the League.

Every member system will demand SLN protection and there are hundreds of systems with the financial, industrial and political pull to get significant SLN presence or build sizeable forces of their own. I am leaning more towards building their own navies so as not to depend on the League.

They're free to invest heavily on their own defence, out of their own system's GDP. But if they want to keep being members of the League, then they'll also pay for their share of the SLN's costs, whether they have their own forces or not. This means you'd be taxing your citizens more than other systems would. It's a political question.

Asking Canada if its worth investing more into national defence is one thing, asking Ukraine post war with Russia if they want to invest in National defence might give you a significantly different response.

So your choices are to forge ahead with this plan, secede from the League, or not have such a big force. If the SLN-as-a-deterrence plan works, then all systems in the League are equally protected on average, but some of them devoted less resources to the military and may have thus been able to get a leg up in their economy.

Only one problem with that, the SLN is months away from the GA’s industrial heart but the GA is days or a couple of weeks from the most heavily industrialized systems of the League AND a few hours/days from reinforcing home territory as well.

So in the event of war your deterrent is unable to defend the League and sitting in League space holding what they can hold on to or sailing to GA space, spending weeks or months getting there while the League core is uncovered except for whatever fixed defences are in place.

Quick note: you don't need to devote that much resource to cease being a target. Between two equally interesting targets, any rational military will attack the least defended one. So it's like putting your running shoes on while a bear is coming to attack you... you don't have to outrun the bear, only your companions.

Problem is that the GA AND the SLN are the threat here. No amount of changes will wipe the memory of the SLN attacking member systems and threatening league citizens with mass death for exercising their rights.

In the books after Operation Icarus the MA member nations demanded wallers for protection not a stronger deterrent. How many systems were willing to part with their defensive picket in order to reinforce 8th Fleet? At the start of the 2nd war how many member systems were willing to send their wallers to 8th Fleet to reinforce it by weakening their home fleets.

Grayson kept a 40-60 SD(P) home fleet for a good chunk of the 2nd war I highly doubt core and shell systems that can build large fleets of their own.

I also dispute this, because they'll also remember that it barely affected them at all.

They will remember that they went from being citizens of the most powerful nation in human history by a wide margin to crapping their pants expecting the big bad RMN to sail into their system and destroy their industry and eat their children and then to make things worse they saw the SLN attack League member systems and threaten citizens with mass murder. Having the right to secede from the League means nothing if you also give the League central government the only weapons to keep member systems from seceding.

It could have been a lot different, but it's a strategy the GA knew it could not afford, because it would cause exactly what you're saying: revanchism. All those systems that felt weak and threatened in 1920 would by 1965 be wielding a navy the size of what Manticore was in the late 1890s, with a few of them with much bigger ones than the RMN itself. Maybe none of them can take on the RMN individually, but if you got 10 or 50 of those to band together (and that's only 2.5% of the pre-war League!), they'd smash you.

And that is why realistically the GA has no option but to get closer, invest in industry and invest in former protectorates and verge systems vacated by the League and that have a stable enough government. Thats also why the neutral systems as well as some League members and the Andermani and Erewhon and Maya Autonomous Regional Sector will also pursue closer ties to the GA if not outright membership in the GA. They all know that the only thing standing between them and the League is the GA.

The League citizens went from an insulated life of being protected by the biggest, strongest and invincible SLN to being completely, thoroughly and most importantly quickly outclassed by a force less than half their size all without being able to score any legitimate victories. League members will demand and likely get picket based on their importance. Because with Beowulf as a member of the GA, having a deterrent isn’t quite as effective. Lynx, Joshua and Beowulf represent routes of advance for the GA that can get to the League quicker than the SLN ca get to the core industrial systems of the GA. Whats more, I doubt they will be lightly fortified. I suspect that the Beowulf Terminal will become one of if not the most heavily fortified region in Human space. Having a direct link between GA core system and an advance base like Beowulf which is within days of the most heavily industrialized systems of the League will make the League members demand heavy pickets or they will build them for themselves.

Sigs wrote:The problem with the SLN is that a fleet of 80 SD’s loose inside League territory can have free movement within 90%+ of the League territory. Even half that number will wreak a lot of systems and even with 100% of the reserve mobilized it still leaves a lot of systems many of them core and shell completely exposed.

So your worry is that they're going to go rogue and resort to warlordism?

Those don't need Honor's Surrender Demands to be declared as pirates. They are pirates and warlords. And just where are they going to refit a superdreadnought after their actions?

And with a proper naval crew of 6500 aboard, what are the chances that they can go rogue? These are not StateSec thugs who had been selected to aboard because they already were indoctrinated. However blind and ill-equipped with intel they were, these are naval personnel.

The only scenario I could see is that some admiral decides that the surrender was illegitimate and thus declares Kingsford to be so too. That's something I was thinking, btw: is controlling the orbit of a multi-system capital sufficient to convince all other planets to surrender? Because the courier boat carrying the declaration of surrender can't arrive before the courier boat that carried the news of the invasion in the first place.

But that only takes you so far, if the juggernaut in question is coming wether you ant it or not you may not have a choice. You either sit around with your 300 SD’s and wait for 1,000 SLN SD’s to come and destroy your navy and then conquer your territory or you retaliate against the League knowing that you are done either way but you get some of your own back. 9 out of 10 nations might respond with fortifying their system but the 10th sends their fleet to League space and wreaks it with a fraction of the SLN’s strength.

You still try to extract the best terms possible. If you don't kill too many of them, they might be more merciful. If not for your population, for your spacers. Those 300 SDs would have a crew of 1.5 million people. If you know you're going to lose anyway and you start the reception by killing half a million of the opposing side, what do you expect is going to happen?

I completely understand the "threat of hanging by morning." Which is why there must always be a path to less violence. The doctrine of the SLN BF was to come with such an overwhelming force that the other side would have no illusions about being able to win. They should then surrender without firing a shot.

You can easily wreak 1,500 systems if the vast majority of those systems have nothing more than a few DD’s/CL’s defending them if that and the fleet that is supposed to defend them can at most deploy 1-2 SD’s per system.

While true, that's a complete stupidity on the part of whoever gave the order. Why in the Galaxy would they do that? Would they want to be remembered as worse than all the Marvel Cinematic Universe villains combined?

And don't forget "never give an order you know won't be obeyed." The Parthian Shot was such an order, because at least one of the SLN task force commanders refused to implement it. Discipline in the RMN and RHN would be such that this order would not be obeyed anywhere. Demolishing systems that barely even knew a condition of war existed is not something the crews would abide by.

It’s one thing for me to show up in League space with 80 SD’s and escorts and split them into 20 task forces to wreak 20 systems, rearm and go do it again and again and again because even when the SLN redeploys to cover systems they can’t provide any security for the majority of their systems. They can try and ambush the task forces but you have to be really lucky or I would have to be really predictable to catch even a fraction of those forces.

Its a whole other thing if I were to show up in League space with 80 SD’s and escorts and face heavily industrialized systems with 20-40 SD’s per system plus escorts and less industrialized systems with smaller pickets while the SLN having a central force to respond and reinforce their member systems.

Correct, but that second situation is the only valid one. Why would the 80 SDs be wasting their time in middle-tier systems that aren't worth a squadron of the wall or four squadrons of battlecruisers in the first place? If they went after 20 systems 4 times, that's 80 systems, or 4% of the pre-war League, probably representing less than 1% of the League industrial output and population.

The point I've been trying to make is that attacking systems that the SLN didn't deem worth defending in the first place is squandering your resources. That only gets the SL population anger at you, it won't destroy their ability to make war. It's not rational.

and the question is how do they take care of the problem without going into an arms race with the GA? If I remember correctly the League is supposed to have the industrial capacity equal to that of the rest of humanity. If I were in charge of the GA I would be making every effort I could to build up all those systems that have some stable government after the League left and all those systems that the SEM and Andermani Empire acquired as well as the 100+ systems in the republic that have been stifled for so long. In 40 years with proper attention to industry, education, infrastructure , military and diplomacy the GA might be able to field a force of tens of thousands of SD(P)’s all their own, maybe not equal to the SLN capabilities but they would be a force that can match the SLN especially with the geography of the wormholes giving the GA such an advantage.

They will go on an arms race, I never disputed that. What I am disputing is the need to have 18000 ships of the wall to cover 1500 systems. They don't need 18000 ships to go to war with any one component of the GA, particularly if they can convince the other components to turn against that component.

According to what we know of the HV economics, no polity other than the SL could field tens of thousands of capital ships, and that's only if the Constitution had been amended to allow for direct funding. Grayson was struggling to maintain 120 ships of the wall, and by the end of UH Beth is clear that Haven can't maintain their ~800 for too long either. I don't particularly agree with this, but I didn't make the rules.

its not a question of winning though, its not a case of nation x attacking the League, its a matter of the League making it clear that they were going to attack nation x or actually carried out the attack. Its not a matter of winning so much as making the League pay for every system taken.

See above why I think that suicide-by-cop is not a good idea.

I really question that number. Just how was the PN going to do 600 times more damage to the League with battleships than what the League would do to Haven once it crossed the hyperwall with 1000 SDs?

Because Haven loses either way and even if the 1,000 SD’s destroy 100% fo the industry of Haven the RHN can send the BB’s to attack virtually defenceless systems.

You didn't address my math.

There's no system in the League that 374 battleships could wreck, combined or in dispersed form, that would even come close to one Haven, even in Legislaturalist times. I'm arguing that even 130 systems that they could attack and wreck before falling apart would equal one Haven.

Meanwhile, you've made the situation worse for those left at home.

How many of the 1,700 League members have a single SD let alone multiple squadrons as a picket? Taking 100% of the SLN’s active wall and splitting it by squadron you end up with the ability to cover 287 systems. You cover the core systems with a squadron each Haven can concentrate their BB’s and attack more important systems. If the SLN tries to defend everywhere the BB’s can cut through the SLN’s SD’s because they can outnumber them greatly in every engagement and it would still only cover 16% of their territory with a force that might just might present a challenge to anything less than 60 BB’s. True the League wins eventually but they pay a hefty price for their victory. Or the League decides to abandon more than 84% of their territory to the BB’s and concentrate on fewer and fewer systems to make them a tough nut to crack for even the entire force of 320 BB’s.

The SLN main defences are in their main systems, the ones that represent the greatest population and industrial output. I'm not trying to argue that there are 1000 of those; I'm arguing that the 20 or 30 of those are off-limits to the BBs because they could not hope to inflict any significant damage before ceasing to exist.

That leaves the systems that aren't worth attacking in the first place and the middle-tier ones.

I don’t want a war but you do, I know that if we go to war I lose, I lose wether I stand and fight or go out and wreak your territory. The difference is that I make you pay dearly for attacking and conquering my territory. The League goes after poor systems that can’t field anything larger than a CA if that, but if they hit a system that had even a squadron of BC’s can do disproportionate amount of damage to the League even fi they are defeated at the end.

See above why there's losing and there's losing and being reviled for all history.

Lets say the US invades Canada and wipes out 8 trillion dollars out of the ~10 trillion dollars worth of national wealth but loses 30 trillion dollars out of the ~126 trillion dollars of national wealth because of Canada’s retaliation. Canada loses but even though the US technically wins they still lose.

That's not nearly comparable. You'd need to talk about a war between Trinidad and Tobago and the US to get even close to the difference in size, and you'd still be a magnitude off.

This isn’t a case of I will invade and conquer the League, this is a case of I will send my fleet to destroy as much industry as I can because I know I lose either way. Im not talking about a war where Haven, Manticore or the Andermani CHOOSE to go to war with the League, I am talking about a case where they are FORCED into a war with the League. It becomes a case of staying in Manticore home system and dying while taking as many SLN SD’s with me or going into League space knowing that Haven ceases to exist but I will make the League pay for attacking me. This is once again a war the League forces onto someone else, a war that nation CANNOT escape.

This is sounding like the rationale that North Korea adopts today. They can't hope to win the war in the long run, but they can make it costly enough for the attacker to remain un-attacked. The problem with that logic is that the DPRK's premise is built upon keeping the Kim family in power, not the welfare of the people.

Otherwise, the best course of action would be to obtain the most favourable terms in losing the war, so you can hope to rebuild later and your population won't suffer. If the other side decides to keep occupying, then you'll need support from the rest of humanity to build your Fifth Column and insurgency, to overthrow the occupiers (we saw that happening in Madras).

If instead you become the most reviled system in history, you can forget that. It is said that the Romans salted the earth after defeating Carthage in the third and final Punic War, so nothing would grow there. This would be worse.

If the SLN attacks Haven or Manticore their only way they win the war and win the war in a worthwhile way is if the opponent be it Manticore or Haven or both behave the way SLN doctrine requires them to, stay at home and wait for the SLN to attack. Because if they don’t behave the way the SLN needs them to and they instead decide to go to League space to wreak their industry there is absolutely nothing the League can do when 760 SD’s and DN’s, 370 BB’s, 280 BC’s, 540 CA’s, 650 CL’s and 1100 DD’s come knocking on their door.

I don't disagree with the calculus.

I disagree with that being done in the first place. It's ill-advised and counter-productive: it wrecks little more than symbolic, but has huge negative, long-term consequences. And that's assuming the crews execute it in the first place.

I’m not talking about the RMN or RHN wiping out civilians, I am talking about giving plenty of warning and destroying infrastructure knowing full well that there will be no kingdom or republic to go to.

Yes, you are. None of those hundreds of systems they could attack have sufficient military targets to be worth more than a footnote. The only thing they can attack in those lightly-defended systems are civilian infrastructure.

Destroying spaceborne civilian infrastructure is an atrocity. It exists for a reason, to support the economy of that place. If you destroy the spaceborne food-producing greenhouses, what are they going to eat? If you destroy the solar collectors, how are they going to power their systems? If you destroy the space habitats, where are they going to live? At best, you could destroy the non-food-producing industry but that would still plunge the system into a deep recession and that could go one of two ways: people die nonetheless, or the League offers federal help and all you did was piss people off with no upside.

And again: the crews would not execute such an atrocity, if it is not a military target.

Nothing will keep them that is why its a strategy of DESPERATION rather than of choice.

I argue that is not a strategy of desperation. It's not even a strategy. It's collective suicide pact.

And a pact can only work if all the members come through.

Again its a question of League being too strong for anyone to fight but exceptionally weak if the enemy in question decides to bring the fight to the League. How would the League members respond if 90-99% of the member systems were virtually abandoned by the SLN so much so that a handful of BC’s and DD’s can wreak a systems industry in a few days?

I'm not disputing the facts. I'm disputing why anyone would be such massively stupid to try what you're proposing. When all is going to hell in a handbasket, why would you make it worse? This is not "they have nothing to lose."

And even if they did and even if a portion of the League was left wrecked, I'm arguing that is not going to be, in the worst case scenario, more than 10% of the League's population and industrial capabilities. It will rebound economically in due time.