Russian “False-Flag” operations in the Ukraine

Guillaume wrote:Honestly, I don't think he had much choice.

There's countries ( lets say France, because I live there ) that can afford to stick a finger to Vlad Ruble Diktat because they used to import a minimal amount of natural gas from Russia and have capacity to import it from other sources.
And there's countries that have limited options or no options at all.

( I'm waiting to see how Germany is going to handle it... because they too have no real short term options, and on the European Game they are more important than Hungary )

Maybe so…maybe so!
But he could have chosen to take the same path as Poland and Bulgaria did.
Both nations were equally dependent on Russian gas and petroleum; Bulgaria 100%, yet they both told Putin where to stick his decree, and they were cut off!
They were aware of what in the cards, and had made arrangement with neighboring countries to receive gas and petro from the EU.
Something Orban had neglected, since he was always going to do Putin’s bidding.
You’re not alone in in wondering how western unity will hold up, once Putin decides to put the screws on nations even more dependent on Russian gas!

n7axw wrote:

Arol wrote:https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-russian-gas-rubles/31788899.html

I guess that if any country was going to break the unanimity, that NATO and the EU has shown in the face of Putin’s aggression, the odds on favorite was Oban’s Hungary!
Putin must be cackling away! Finally a clear crack in alliance!
Well Oban has never made a secret of where his allegiance lies; this just proves it beyond a doubt.
Well the future might end up proving that NATO and the EU can get along better without Hungary, then Hungary can without NATO and the EU!

There is news today that Russia is sanctioning Hungary over Hungary's willingness to base NATO fighters. That doesn't seem to fit very well with this...

Don-

https://www.vox.com/23009757/hungary-el ... rban-putin

The US/NATO airbase in Hungary has been there for more than 15 years, it was established even before the Ukraine started its descent into conflict in 2013.
(Do you have a link to those sanctions that Russia has imposed on Hungary, be interesting to see the wording?)
The fact remains that Hungary, is the most divisive voice in the unity that the west has shown in its opposition to Russians aggression against the Ukraine.
Divisiveness is certainly not something that is needed, nor wanted in this ongoing conflict.
Where other NATO member have been bending over backwards to supply military aid to the Ukraine, Hungary has refused. They also won’t permit other NATO countries to use Hungary to transit weapons and other military supplies to the Ukrainians.
Not exactly the actions of a trustworthy member of the EU or NATO.
No, sooner or later Hungary will have to get off the fence and choose where their allegiance lies!

Arol wrote:https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-russian-gas-rubles/31788899.html

I guess that if any country was going to break the unanimity, that NATO and the EU has shown in the face of Putin’s aggression, the odds on favorite was Oban’s Hungary!
Putin must be cackling away! Finally a clear crack in alliance!
Well Oban has never made a secret of where his allegiance lies; this just proves it beyond a doubt.
Well the future might end up proving that NATO and the EU can get along better without Hungary, then Hungary can without NATO and the EU!

A crack in which alliance, though? The EU has been hindered in taking action regarding Hungary because of a threatened veto from Poland, in a quid pro quo arrangement which also saw Hungary blocking EU actions regarding Poland.

Arol wrote:But he could have chosen to take the same path as Poland and Bulgaria did.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-euro ... ary-funds/

That's the new mechanism they came up with to get around the joint Article 7 vetoes.

Officials say the Commission ultimately opted to trigger the mechanism against Budapest — and not against fellow rule-of-law troublemaker Poland — due to rampant high-level corruption and lack of proper prosecution of graft in Hungary that gave the Berlaymont a strong case.

Putin's aggression may have broken that quid pro quo deal. It looks like the EU Commission is doing its best too, overlooking its issues with Poland for now. It's still only a slim possibility but it'd be ironic if an Article 7 procedure against Hungary becomes viable...

Putin remains a master strategist.

On another note, it seems Russian businessmen and their families are starting to become an endangered species:

At least five Russian businessmen have died by apparent suicide in just three months (cnn.com)

Apparently Russia has pretentions that the Baltic is theirs.
There have been numerous incursions into the airspace of the Scandinavian countries over the years.
The latest was Russian fighter that flew into the airspace over the Danish island of Bornholm, and had to be escorted out by Danish fighters.
That it was fully intentional is made obvious by the fact, that after being escorted out of Danish airspace, it then flew directly in and violated Swedish airspace, and had to be escorted out by Swedish fighters!
The only explanation is that it is like a cur hound marking its territory!!!

https://www.thelocal.dk/20220501/denmar ... -airspace/

They've been doing that for years, it's not a new escalation but rather a continuation of an existing posturing strategy.

The E wrote:They've been doing that for years, it's not a new escalation but rather a continuation of an existing posturing strategy.

That’s the problem isn’t it?
For years the “cur” has gotten away at pissing where it wanted. But that was in peace time, we are now in “Special Military Operations”-time, and it wouldn’t take much to turn that up a notch!
So unless Putin is actually looking to provoke a confrontation, maybe he should leash the mutt!

I just saw a u-tube video lately that suggests that Putin is really quite ill.. . It was on the Combat Vet (Veteran??) Reacts channel... Sorry guys, I haven't figured out how to copy and paste with my tablet so I can't provide a more convenient reference than the one above.

At any rate, he showed a profile picture of Putin at a conference sitting at a table. He was gripping the table apparently to avoid tremoring and his foot on the right side was tapping rythmaticly. Both hand and foot were on the same side. In addition, his face was puffy implying that he is on steroids. Combat Vet's conclusion was tentatively Parkinson's. He emphasized that he is not a doctor and his conclusion could not be regarded a diagnosis. However it did seem that he had done a bit of research before he recorded his presentation.

With Parkinson's comes irritability, depression, etc. In Putin's case it would amplify his paranoia which could explain his lack of rationality. On the other hand, I've also heard that he has thyroid trouble and is accompanied wherever he goes by a cancer specialist.

At any rate, just maybe we are looking at an explanation for the lack of rationality and judgement we have been seeing from him lately.

Don

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n7axw wrote:At any rate, he showed a profile picture of Putin at a conference sitting at a table. He was gripping the table apparently to avoid tremoring and his foot on the right side was tapping rythmaticly. Both hand and foot were on the same side. In addition, his face was puffy implying that he is on steroids. Combat Vet's conclusion was tentatively Parkinson's. He emphasized that he is not a doctor and his conclusion could not be regarded a diagnosis. However it did seem that he had done a bit of research before he recorded his presentation.

A friend mentioned exactly this after he had seen the same video of Putin.

We speculated that the behavior could also be an expression of pain, gripping the table instead of making a fist while tapping the foot due to muscle-tension.

Regardless, if he is sick it could mean that the whole mess in Ukraine was supposed to be his crowning achievement before stepping down.

Joat42 wrote:

n7axw wrote:At any rate, he showed a profile picture of Putin at a conference sitting at a table. He was gripping the table apparently to avoid tremoring and his foot on the right side was tapping rythmaticly. Both hand and foot were on the same side. In addition, his face was puffy implying that he is on steroids. Combat Vet's conclusion was tentatively Parkinson's. He emphasized that he is not a doctor and his conclusion could not be regarded a diagnosis. However it did seem that he had done a bit of research before he recorded his presentation.

A friend mentioned exactly this after he had seen the same video of Putin.

We speculated that the behavior could also be an expression of pain, gripping the table instead of making a fist while tapping the foot due to muscle-tension.

Regardless, if he is sick it could mean that the whole mess in Ukraine was supposed to be his crowning achievement before stepping down.

On a different subject, why is it that people who go into wars have so little good Intel before they go in... Think Bush before Afghanistan and Iraq. I doubt that he could have even spelled Shia or Sunni... Or the Japanese before Pearl. Now this. I guess the Russians thought they would be welcomed by open arms by the Ukrainian. Maybe pretty Ukrainian girls would bed sticking the stems of fragrant roses down the their rifle barrels...

Don

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