What if McQueen's coup worked?

If McQueen's coup had worked, a lot of Peep officers would have survived the purge. Even my young niece at the time questioned the Peeps executing their own officers. She said the Peeps were fighting a war on two different fronts. I imagine a lot of good officers were killed or marrooned on Cerberus. It might have had a significant impact on the war. Because of the purge, moral was shot all to hell. Motivation was down. And life expectancy had taken a serious nosedive. Who had time to plan and execute a war with the enemy at the gates when they were losing the war with the enemy inside the gates.

BTW, Eloise would never have gotten the position and I doubt an Alliance would ever have been formed.

cthia wrote:If McQueen's coup had worked, a lot of Peep officers would have survived the purge. Even my young niece at the time questioned the Peeps executing their own officers. She said the Peeps were fighting a war on two different fronts. I imagine a lot of good officers were killed or marrooned on Cerberus. It might have had a significant impact on the war. Because of the purge, moral was shot all to hell. Motivation was down. And life expectancy had taken a serious nosedive. Who had time to plan and execute a war with the enemy at the gates when they were losing the war with the enemy inside the gates.

BTW, Eloise would never have gotten the position and I doubt an Alliance would ever have been formed.

McQueen was very good in making military officers's morale higher, as textev shows fromNightfall.

cthia wrote:BTW, Eloise would never have gotten the position and I doubt an Alliance would ever have been formed.

But would it have mattered? There wouldn't be a Cachat going to help Zilwicki, but Cromarty would still have been in power and would have helped Erewhon with its Congo problem. So the Kingdom of Torch might have still happened and Zilwicki might have gone to Mesa. Though timing would be wrong and he might arrive too early for Simões to have become bitter.

Cromarty would have won the war but as far as we know he wouldn't have slowed research on most fronts. By 1917, the entire RMN wall of battle would have been of SD(P)s, at 200+. They'd have had experience in patrolling ex-Peep systems. Apollo might have come even earlier than it did, to the point that when the Lynx terminus is found, Apollo is more than ready.

Would Lynx have been found? We know that the survey service was a way for High Ridge to shovel money to so it would be redirected through corruption to his friends. So Cromarty may not have invested in the research that found the new terminus. But he might have, because it's also possible the research hadn't been possible before because of the pending or active war.

So in the most likely scenario, McQueen wins her coup then loses the war, and accepts the surrender of Haven. She accepts going to civilian life and may run for president in 10 years, but she's out of the picture. Manticore winning the war with Cromarty alive discovers Lynx, but is ahead of the curve by the time the Alignment moves to attack it. There's no First Battle of Manticore. Oyster Bay happens, but the stockpile of Apollo is far bigger. Filareta arrives to face a Manticore and Grayson wall of battle that is fully equipped with Apollo. The rest is the same as we've been told.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:BTW, Eloise would never have gotten the position and I doubt an Alliance would ever have been formed.

But would it have mattered? There wouldn't be a Cachat going to help Zilwicki, but Cromarty would still have been in power and would have helped Erewhon with its Congo problem. So the Kingdom of Torch might have still happened and Zilwicki might have gone to Mesa. Though timing would be wrong and he might arrive too early for Simões to have become bitter.

Cromarty would have won the war but as far as we know he wouldn't have slowed research on most fronts. By 1917, the entire RMN wall of battle would have been of SD(P)s, at 200+. They'd have had experience in patrolling ex-Peep systems. Apollo might have come even earlier than it did, to the point that when the Lynx terminus is found, Apollo is more than ready.

Would Lynx have been found? We know that the survey service was a way for High Ridge to shovel money to so it would be redirected through corruption to his friends. So Cromarty may not have invested in the research that found the new terminus. But he might have, because it's also possible the research hadn't been possible before because of the pending or active war.

So in the most likely scenario, McQueen wins her coup then loses the war, and accepts the surrender of Haven. She accepts going to civilian life and may run for president in 10 years, but she's out of the picture. Manticore winning the war with Cromarty alive discovers Lynx, but is ahead of the curve by the time the Alignment moves to attack it. There's no First Battle of Manticore. Oyster Bay happens, but the stockpile of Apollo is far bigger. Filareta arrives to face a Manticore and Grayson wall of battle that is fully equipped with Apollo. The rest is the same as we've been told.

1) I'd say Lynx is still found, just 12-24 months later due to the lack of "urgency" and funding, so the rest of the timeline is pushed forward that amount of time.

2) the Silesia issue is never solved. The Havenite attack in Silesia in Thunderbolt is what brought the Andermani and Manticore to the table with "The Silesian Solution". The Andermani and Manticore are still "Frenemies".

Theemile wrote:2) the Silesia issue is never solved. The Havenite attack in Silesia in Thunderbolt is what brought the Andermani and Manticore to the table with "The Silesian Solution". The Andermani and Manticore are still "Frenemies".

Though without High Ridge in power it seems unlikely that the tensions in Silesia would have increased to the point of the RMN and IAN briefly shooting at each other (as happened early in WoH).

On the one hand the RMN would have been more powerful and wouldn't have had the ceasefire hanging over their heads (because Cromarty would have gotten the surrender and then pushed through the modernization of the RMN).
And on the other hand the Andies probably could have negotiated for Silesian concessions; while not thinking that they'd be able to muscle a weak Manticoran government into simply giving in on the issue.

But between the better balance of power and more stronger government I don't think the IAN would have tried a military brinksmanship strategy to get what they wanted.

So probably still much closer to still actual friends than frenemies. Or at least that's my take.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Theemile wrote:2) the Silesia issue is never solved. The Havenite attack in Silesia in Thunderbolt is what brought the Andermani and Manticore to the table with "The Silesian Solution". The Andermani and Manticore are still "Frenemies".

Though without High Ridge in power it seems unlikely that the tensions in Silesia would have increased to the point of the RMN and IAN briefly shooting at each other (as happened early in WoH).

On the one hand the RMN would have been more powerful and wouldn't have had the ceasefire hanging over their heads (because Cromarty would have gotten the surrender and then pushed through the modernization of the RMN).
And on the other hand the Andies probably could have negotiated for Silesian concessions; while not thinking that they'd be able to muscle a weak Manticoran government into simply giving in on the issue.

But between the better balance of power and more stronger government I don't think the IAN would have tried a military brinksmanship strategy to get what they wanted.

So probably still much closer to still actual friends than frenemies. Or at least that's my take.

I agree that we would not have seen the Andi actions in WoH, but the low level power "Great Game" actions would have continued in Silesia, just like that had been for 300 years.

But that also means more work would be required to bring them in on the later war on Mesa.

Theemile wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Would Lynx have been found? We know that the survey service was a way for High Ridge to shovel money to so it would be redirected through corruption to his friends. So Cromarty may not have invested in the research that found the new terminus. But he might have, because it's also possible the research hadn't been possible before because of the pending or active war.

1) I'd say Lynx is still found, just 12-24 months later due to the lack of "urgency" and funding, so the rest of the timeline is pushed forward that amount of time.

Possibly not even that much. As you say, some of the extra resources the High Ridge Government "shoveled" into the search for the seventh termini was siphoned off for other purposes and the remainder merely made up for inefficient managerialism(which was there to obscure the corruption). Almost a net zero difference overall.

IIRC, the research had been quietly ticking away all along. It's possible that High Ridge's rebranding exercise actually delayed the Lynx termini's discovery by a few weeks or months, by diverting the scientists into a number of unnecessary administrative meetings and PR exercises.

Either way, I think the critical difference with a Cromarty Government vis a vis Lynx is that it would probably have immediately fortified the Lynx termini, long before Monica's battlecruisers or Crandall's task force could be maneuvered into place. That may compromise the Alignment's scheming, since the basic plan was for Monica to grab the Lynx termini before its Grantville Government-ordered forts were commissioned.

Jonathan_S wrote:

Theemile wrote:2) the Silesia issue is never solved. The Havenite attack in Silesia in Thunderbolt is what brought the Andermani and Manticore to the table with "The Silesian Solution". The Andermani and Manticore are still "Frenemies".

Though without High Ridge in power it seems unlikely that the tensions in Silesia would have increased to the point of the RMN and IAN briefly shooting at each other (as happened early in WoH).

On the one hand the RMN would have been more powerful and wouldn't have had the ceasefire hanging over their heads (because Cromarty would have gotten the surrender and then pushed through the modernization of the RMN).
And on the other hand the Andies probably could have negotiated for Silesian concessions; while not thinking that they'd be able to muscle a weak Manticoran government into simply giving in on the issue.

But between the better balance of power and more stronger government I don't think the IAN would have tried a military brinksmanship strategy to get what they wanted.

So probably still much closer to still actual friends than frenemies. Or at least that's my take.

Well, without the High Ridge-inflicted build-lapse the only way to get a decent WoH/AAC is for the Andermani to go into bed with Haven after all, as was foreshadowed during WoH. The difference between a Cromarty-continuity RMN and the one High Ridge left Manticore with is probably approximately the entire IAN, after all.

It's why Grantville had to roll over and sell out Silesia. The Cromarty Government's problem would be that it was too strong to entertain such a thing, preferring to maintain the status quo there, thus forcing the Andermani towards military confrontation to make any territorial gains.

munroburton wrote:Well, without the High Ridge-inflicted build-lapse the only way to get a decent WoH/AAC is for the Andermani to go into bed with Haven after all, as was foreshadowed during WoH. The difference between a Cromarty-continuity RMN and the one High Ridge left Manticore with is probably approximately the entire IAN, after all.

It's why Grantville had to roll over and sell out Silesia. The Cromarty Government's problem would be that it was too strong to entertain such a thing, preferring to maintain the status quo there, thus forcing the Andermani towards military confrontation to make any territorial gains.

On the other hand Cromarty's government is more likely to understand the Andermani desire for some quid pro quo in Silesia in exchange for holding up the tacit understanding between them that the Andies were staying neutral in Manticore's favor and not rocking the boat during the war with Haven.

I don't know what kind of agreement might have been come to -- whether it would allow directly territorial gains in Silesia or some more subtle and longer term advantage for the Andermani -- but I tend to believe that even with the stronger navy that Cromarty and his government ministers would see the justice in the Andermani position, and that some arrangement would be reached. That they wouldn't try to use their newfound military dominance to hold out for the old status quo. (Though I'm also sure any agreement would fall far short of flat out allowing them to take immediate and direct possession of half of Silesia)



Maybe an agreement that Manticore would not object if the Andermani Empire made it known that Silesian systems wanting to be free of the (corrupt) central government could now petition via (independently overseen) popular referendum to join the Empire? (That would actually fit in rather well with the Empire's history of generally expanding by means of picking up distressed systems that were mostly grateful to join)
But maybe other things; that was just one off-the-cuff idea.

Jonathan_S wrote:On the other hand Cromarty's government is more likely to understand the Andermani desire for some quid pro quo in Silesia in exchange for holding up the tacit understanding between them that the Andies were staying neutral in Manticore's favor and not rocking the boat during the war with Haven.

I don't know what kind of agreement might have been come to -- whether it would allow directly territorial gains in Silesia or some more subtle and longer term advantage for the Andermani -- but I tend to believe that even with the stronger navy that Cromarty and his government ministers would see the justice in the Andermani position, and that some arrangement would be reached. That they wouldn't try to use their newfound military dominance to hold out for the old status quo. (Though I'm also sure any agreement would fall far short of flat out allowing them to take immediate and direct possession of half of Silesia)



Maybe an agreement that Manticore would not object if the Andermani Empire made it known that Silesian systems wanting to be free of the (corrupt) central government could now petition via (independently overseen) popular referendum to join the Empire? (That would actually fit in rather well with the Empire's history of generally expanding by means of picking up distressed systems that were mostly grateful to join)
But maybe other things; that was just one off-the-cuff idea.

My thinking is that a surviving Cromarty govt, still means that strong Progressive, Liberal, and Conservative blocks survive. They, and their leech cronies, would still exist and still be creating roadblocks in favor of their own policies. The High Ridge govt ultimately was a good thing long term - they let the loonies run the show unchecked and so many of their leaders failed spectacularly at it, removing them and their influences from Manty politics forever.

Without that opportunity for them to ("ahem") "SHINE", they would continue to obstruct and leech off the system. Now, even the opposition is on board with the realities that face the Star Kingdom. In this alternate time line, the Opposition would continue to do what they have always done, and items like Silensia and the Andermani would stay status quo. The Young files would continue to be used as a political club

I love reading all of the different flavors of logic. Alternate universes are so interesting. It is like going back in time and changing one thing and trying to figure out how the ripple in time will affect the future.

At any rate, I think a lot hinges on McQueen. What kind of an officer would she have been? The question had been asked by the Peeps if she herself had a taste for power. Theisman didn't have a taste for power, and he handed the reigns over to someone else.

I could never get my drones in close enough to read McQueen effectively enough to determine anything except that she was a formidable strategist and tactician. She seemed to be adept at politics as well.

But would she have claimed the reigns for herself? If so, was she bloodthirsty? If she was indeed bloodthirsty, the war at that point might have gone differently. Had the coup worked, Haven would have been stronger at that point. And had McQueen consulted with Theisman, Beatrice may have happened sooner and Eighth Fleet might not have had time to be equipped with Apollo.

Plus, the idea of Miss Smoking Mirrors and Thomas Theisman conspiring together frightens me almost as much as a Foraker/Hemphill combo. And, McQueen is more aggressive by nature than Theisman. She seemed to be born a warmonger.