munroburton wrote:Wormhole links are unpredictable. One of the things which derailed the Alignment's timetable, if not quite their entire plan, was the discovery of the Manticore-Lynx bridge.
Which brought Manticore about four to six hundred light years closer to Mesa. From that point onwards, much of the Alignment moves have been reactive and probably improvised - the half-baked Talbott resistance, Monica affair, Byng and Crandall's deployments. They were forced to launch Houdini much earlier than intended and even then it did not succeed 100%, costing them their shadow emperor.
The prematurely launched Oyster Bay was also completely reactive(to Apollo), whereas the original OOB would have been completely proactive. This turned it from a total tactical success into a total strategic failure as it planted the seed of a Haven-Manticore alliance.
Loren Pechtel wrote:I think the defector was an even bigger factor than the wormhole link. The wormhole pushed them into a bunch of stupid moves but I don't think that was nearly as bad as the leak.
If you are talking about Herlander Simões, he was not known to have defected until after Filareta had already been ordered to attack. If you are talking about Jack McBryde, they thought his actions had been contained and even used Green Pines to help cover Houdini.
Or are you specifically referring to the fact that Herlander Simões and the knowledge that he brought are the reasons that the Grand Alliance was formed? Personally, I think the combination of Oyster Bay and Herlander were important. Oyster Bay made it clear that there was an unknown party interfering in the war and Herlander put a name and a motivation onto that party; together it was made clear that war between Haven and Manticore had been forced onto them.