"Why are you still alive?"

tlb wrote:

tlb wrote:This need not mean that they are using much more than an EXCEL spreadsheet.

cthia wrote:I disagree. There was no need to use a spreadsheet - or a computer for that matter - for something you could much more quickly do by hand. No, I think a common everyday expert system was being summoned. I was suggesting that expert systems would be even more capable in the future because of much faster computers which would make child's play out of the many MORE decision trees. I am still not convinced that an expert system wasn't used.

-- snip --

In the HV, expert systems would be as common and as simple to set up and use as spreadsheets! Now that is power!!!

I agree that any expert system available would be used instead of a spreadsheet. However I stand by the statement that the actual ordering of the data to produce that "tea leaf readers' report" was the sort of thing that could be done by a spreadsheet; an expert system would be using dynamite to kill fish in a barrel.

I am intrigued by your statement that there "was no need to use a spreadsheet" "or a computer", when an expert system could be summoned; because you seem to be saying that an expert system resides in something other than a computer. What would that something be?

That isn't what I said. I was pointing out that what was being suggested in the forum could have been accomplished by hand and a galactic map, just as easily as a spreadsheet. Remember, the Admiralty has a great big hulking hollow tank. Anything much more involved would need an expert system. In fact ...


Addendum to the previous post

cthia wrote:I am still not convinced that an expert system wasn't used.

After rereading the supplied text, I am certain that an expert system was used. Textev actually says that "It isn't a very good predictive model."

And that is the nature of current expert systems today. The results may not be definitive. You may need to apply some of your own knowledge and intuition; because of the expert system, based on a more educated guess. An expert system should significantly narrow down the field. Which is what it did, just not enough. It is nice when the results are conclusive, and you can spend more time refining the data and output. Besides, who knows besides the author whether the predictive model didn't actually include the answer hidden within the stratum. Which simply required more meditation, interpretation and juggling of the data. And who is to say that the model didn't fuel Lewis and Linda's logic.

So my statement should be changed to "I am not certain that an expert system was not referred to. IOW, how much did Lewis and Linda refer to the results of the predictive model? I seriously doubt they didn't use it as a basis for their own logic. Along with those aforementioned WAGS.

In fact, in the second paragraph which lists their logic, all of those variables could have been input into the expert system. I don't think they were, but that may have been a shortcoming of the team, not the expert system.

How many military analysts are accomplished expert system users. How many of today's analysts are adept at simply using a computer, period?

Admittedly, though, this is somewhat different than my original suggestion that a computer was the end all be all. However, we don't know how much impact it did have. At any rate, I know I remembered that an expert system was involved.

BTW, trying to kill fish in a barrel was exactly what the Havenites were trying to do, by figuring out which barrel Eighth Fleet would poke its head out of next.

And yes, tlb, that was the entire passage I was remembering. Thanks-a-million.

cthia wrote:

tlb wrote:This need not mean that they are using much more than an EXCEL spreadsheet.

I disagree. There was no need to use a spreadsheet - or a computer for that matter - for something you could much more quickly do by hand. No, I think a common everyday expert system was being summoned. I was suggesting that expert systems would be even more capable in the future because of much faster computers which would make child's play out of the many MORE decision trees. I am still not convinced that an expert system wasn't used.

Maybe. But I think the most useful thing a computer could do in this situation is be a queryable database of all kinds of pertinent information on systems and their planets.
Letting the annalists think up various parameters or characteristics (location, industry, political clout, defenses, etc.) and get back the resulting lists of matching systems. (Because there's too many systems to have them all in your head)

"Okay, if we assume 8th fleet doesn't want to hit anything with more than 6 weeks travel out; but has at least X reps in parliament, what systems does that leave? Okay, let's try filtering out the ones with fleet bases as being too tough a target; now what do we have?"
"That looks promising, but lets see if anything significantly better pops out if we push the range out to 8 weeks"
"I think they'll weight naval infrastructure damage more highly, which systems have repair yards or missile depots?"
"No, I think they'll want to take out the most mobile defenders that they safely can; rank the systems by size of their modern defensive task forces"

That's not going to give you your final answers; but its a quick way to filter out the majority of the chaff based on various criteria. Then you get different analysists all applying their own theories on Honor's targeting criteria and sit down and compare lists with each other.

I doubt an expert system would be of much use because what they're struggling for is gaining intuition on how Honor and the Admiralty are selecting their targets -- so humans thinking about possible alternate criteria seems the most important part. Letting an expert system do that "thinking" for you kind of defeats the purpose -- at least when you don't have enough training data for it to get good. In this case figuring out whether the judgement criteria makes sense, in the absence of sufficient data, is the key thing -- and that's the thing expert systems are worst at; because they can't apply intuition to insufficient data.

Actually generating your final selection is just a result of finally converging on a collective best guess of how your enemy seems most likely to pick their targets.

cthia wrote:

tlb wrote:This need not mean that they are using much more than an EXCEL spreadsheet.

I disagree. There was no need to use a spreadsheet - or a computer for that matter - for something you could much more quickly do by hand. No, I think a common everyday expert system was being summoned. I was suggesting that expert systems would be even more capable in the future because of much faster computers which would make child's play out of the many MORE decision trees. I am still not convinced that an expert system wasn't used.

Jonathan_S wrote:Maybe. But I think the most useful thing a computer could do in this situation is be a queryable database of all kinds of pertinent information on systems and their planets.
Letting the annalists think up various parameters or characteristics (location, industry, political clout, defenses, etc.) and get back the resulting lists of matching systems. (Because there's too many systems to have them all in your head)

"Okay, if we assume 8th fleet doesn't want to hit anything with more than 6 weeks travel out; but has at least X reps in parliament, what systems does that leave? Okay, let's try filtering out the ones with fleet bases as being too tough a target; now what do we have?"
"That looks promising, but lets see if anything significantly better pops out if we push the range out to 8 weeks"
"I think they'll weight naval infrastructure damage more highly, which systems have repair yards or missile depots?"
"No, I think they'll want to take out the most mobile defenders that they safely can; rank the systems by size of their modern defensive task forces"

That's not going to give you your final answers; but its a quick way to filter out the majority of the chaff based on various criteria. Then you get different analysists all applying their own theories on Honor's targeting criteria and sit down and compare lists with each other.

I doubt an expert system would be of much use because what they're struggling for is gaining intuition on how Honor and the Admiralty are selecting their targets -- so humans thinking about possible alternate criteria seems the most important part. Letting an expert system do that "thinking" for you kind of defeats the purpose -- at least when you don't have enough training data for it to get good. In this case figuring out whether the judgement criteria makes sense, in the absence of sufficient data, is the key thing -- and that's the thing expert systems are worst at; because they can't apply intuition to insufficient data.

Actually generating your final selection is just a result of finally converging on a collective best guess of how your enemy seems most likely to pick their targets.

A computer, yes. But they were trying to "get inside her head." I would imagine that that type of expert system exclusive to naval operations already exist.

At any rate, I agree in part. That is why I said what you are suggesting can be done "by hand." By hand is with that galactic map I referred to. And a several billion dollar galactic map is available in one great big hulking Holotank.

"Holly, overlay the tank with all of the systems last hit by that bitch Harrington, in successive order. Hmm. Now, of the systems she hit, highlight the systems which have critical political implications. Hmm. Highlight any remaining politically sensitive systems ..."

I would imagine that that sort of nominal functionality is built into the Holotank. I hope it isn't just a pretty, useless, galactic map in 3-D.

And, remember, the textev refers to a predictive model that isn't good enough.

That kind of lingo isn't used to describe the definitive output of spreadsheets. Or the general functionality of a computer. And, again, they were trying to get into her head.

Expert systems are veritable fountains of intuition. That is why they call them experts. They appear to be human.

Expert systems are not designed to do the thinking for you. That is altogether dangerous. They are meant to be your assistant. An assistant who is very knowledgeable for what you hired her for. An expert. You tell her what to do. But in the end, you don't blindly jump off a bridge if that is her recommendation. Your thinking cap is always on. That is why in this case they said the predictive model isn't good enough.

In for a penny, in for a pound.

I will go out on a limb and conclude that if Helen wasn't using her own expert system in the last book to make some of the discoveries, she will be using one shortly.

cthia wrote:Also true. But those numbers would start falling very quickly when the knowns are plugged in. The knowns being any captured data massaged out of any hard drives or other sources. Travel times, locuses of known ships, itineraries, shipping manifests, etc. It is like effecting a search on the internet. Thousands of hits quickly fall to hundreds with a single addition of just one keyword.

None of that is going to help unless they capture a stellar shot from a ship that has been to Darius. That would be sloppy the MAlign, or a lucky break to the GA.

All the rest of the information is going to, at best, lead to Felix, which is the Junction. So I think the GA will find its way there within a few years, given everything that is already known and in-flight. And they may take over that Junction, blockading the direct access from Darius and forcing the MAlign to use hyperspace if they really want to come out and play.

But from there to Darius is not easy. The same 1000-light-year radius applies and therefore 16 million stars to be searched. You'd have to eliminate better than 9999 out of 10000 to have less than 1600 stars to search. And I don't see how they could do that with the information at hand.

cthia wrote:In for a penny, in for a pound.

I will go out on a limb and conclude that if Helen wasn't using her own expert system in the last book to make some of the discoveries, she will be using one shortly.

I am fairly certain that you meant to say Princess Ruth, not Helen (whom we have not seen in the most recent books).

You certainly are free to believe that, the rest of us will wait for a more concrete example from the author(s).

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:In for a penny, in for a pound.

I will go out on a limb and conclude that if Helen wasn't using her own expert system in the last book to make some of the discoveries, she will be using one shortly.

I am fairly certain that you meant to say Princess Ruth, not Helen (whom we have not seen in the most recent books).

You certainly are free to believe that, the rest of us will wait for a more concrete example from the author(s).

Dammit! I am dating so many alluring women in the HV that I can't keep them straight. I sure hope I don't call out the wrong name in bed one night! LOL

Thanks!

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Also true. But those numbers would start falling very quickly when the knowns are plugged in. The knowns being any captured data massaged out of any hard drives or other sources. Travel times, locuses of known ships, itineraries, shipping manifests, etc. It is like effecting a search on the internet. Thousands of hits quickly fall to hundreds with a single addition of just one keyword.

None of that is going to help unless they capture a stellar shot from a ship that has been to Darius. That would be sloppy the MAlign, or a lucky break to the GA.

All the rest of the information is going to, at best, lead to Felix, which is the Junction. So I think the GA will find its way there within a few years, given everything that is already known and in-flight. And they may take over that Junction, blockading the direct access from Darius and forcing the MAlign to use hyperspace if they really want to come out and play.

But from there to Darius is not easy. The same 1000-light-year radius applies and therefore 16 million stars to be searched. You'd have to eliminate better than 9999 out of 10000 to have less than 1600 stars to search. And I don't see how they could do that with the information at hand.

True. If there is nothing to catch with your magic WAN (wide area network) then there is nothing to catch. But expert systems have a way of inspiring you. Which is where I think the wind beneath Lewis and Linda's wings came from.

Even if none of the ships in the captured data had been to Darius, any inconsistencies of those ships that may have been captured - like a rendezvous with a ship from Darius or even Galton - may lead to the Captain with the golden tongue. Maybe its mileage may have been off.

BTW, I wonder if freighters in the HV are likewise charged with keeping a record of their mileage, and there is a way to prevent "rolling back the odometer." Some present day freighters are paid a per diem, per mile. Freighters in the HV should get compensated for having to reroute shipping because of an unexpected war. But proof of that mileage has to be presented. I suppose fuel receipts would do?

At any rate, oftentimes expert systems provide information you didn't know you needed. They dot the Is and cross the Ts for you. They may find inconsistencies or peculiarities that point to the solution.

cthia wrote:At any rate, oftentimes expert systems provide information you didn't know you needed. They dot the Is and cross the Ts for you. They may find inconsistencies or peculiarities that point to the solution.

They can't create information out of thin air. Or worse, out of the vacuum of space.

If those freighters and other captured ships only used the Junction at Felix, the best you can get is the route to Felix, but not from Felix to Darius.

Unless those ships did get a navigational fix on the Darius system and sloppily forgot to delete it. This shouldn't be allowed: it should be SOP to delete it before transit through the wormhole, so that if they're captured immediately after coming through, there's nothing to be gleaned.

From that point, we'd have to have an incredibly lucky break. For example, could the radiation that bathed the ship somehow lead to a fix? A nearby pulsar that caused a particular imprint on the hull or building materials?

These don't seem to be the type of clues RFC is going for in the HV, so I doubt they'll be how the GA finds Darius.

cthia wrote:Which is where I think the wind beneath Lewis and Linda's wings came from.

To give credit where due, Linda and Lewis did not derive the results, they only got to present them; it was the "tea-leaf readers" who generated the report. They would be the analysts of Naval Intelligence reporting to Rear Admiral Victor Lewis, Director of Operational Research, and his boss Vice Admiral Linda Trenis of Bureau of Planning, as Jonathan_S told you.

Why use the first name (Linda) of one and the last name (Lewis) of the other? Just for the alliteration of the "L"'s?