The Short Victorious War

Roosevelt and his advisors thought this would cause Japan to go to war with the US. They grossly underestimated the IJN's capabilities when they did this. They also grossly overestimated the competence of Dugout Doug, who cleverly arranged with get his entire air force destroyed on the ground after knowing Japan was at war with the US.

kzt wrote:Roosevelt and his advisors thought this would cause Japan to go to war with the US. They grossly underestimated the IJN's capabilities when they did this. They also grossly overestimated the competence of Dugout Doug, who cleverly arranged with get his entire air force destroyed on the ground after knowing Japan was at war with the US.

The Japanese achieved massive, and totally unexpected, successes through May of 1942. These included the biggest defeat the US had ever suffered in the loss of the Philippines and the biggest defeat that the British had ever suffered with the fall of Singapore.

The only bump on that road was the Battle of Coral Sea, which was a victory; but meant that two carriers would not be available for Midway in June. This actually a mistake on the Japanese part, since one was undamaged while losing its planes and the other had most of its planes while being damaged. Incredibly they did not just put the planes on the undamaged carrier and send it out. That string of successes ended at Midway.

Isoroku Yamamoto wrote:In the first six to twelve months of a war with the United States and Great Britain I will run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success.

kzt wrote:Roosevelt and his advisors thought this would cause Japan to go to war with the US. They grossly underestimated the IJN's capabilities when they did this. They also grossly overestimated the competence of Dugout Doug, who cleverly arranged with get his entire air force destroyed on the ground after knowing Japan was at war with the US.

To give Douggy just the tiniest sliver of credit, he (or at least his subordinates) tried last minute to avoid that. That was foiled, in part, due to lack of good weather reports for Formosa.

Pretty much as soon as they got news of the Pearl Harbor raid they launched all his B-17s to orbit out of the way in case the Japanese had air strikes scheduled against his airfields. Problem is those strikes were late taking off because their airfields in Formosa were fogged in. So in a horrible coincidence that delay was long enough for the B-17s to run low on fuel and have to land for refueling.

However, even without much prior planning, they could have started cycling the bombers back early, a few at a time, to minimize the number of the ground at once (though only for so long before those WWII radial engines needed to come back for maintenance).

With better prior planning they could have laid out smaller dispersed divert fields across the various Philippine islands. So once they knew the threat was likely Japanese air attack, and not sabotage, they could have ordered the B-17s to split up and land at all those dispersed fields instead of staying one big target for the Japanese air force.

(Oh and MacArthur could have approved the request to launch an immediate B-17 raid on the Formosa airfields; instead of just getting the planes airborne to try and avoid getting them bombed on the ground. Given the weather it probably wouldn't have done much to the waiting Japanese bombers but it would have gotten some use out of the heavy bombers before they were destroyed)

So yeah, he did a really bad job. But it wasn't quite as bad as often portrayed. He didn't just leave his aircraft grounded until they were destroyed -- but his attempt to avoid this wasn't especially well thought out; and at best would only have gotten him past the first raid.

I wish I could find the documentary that started this feeding frenzy.

As I recall, Japan was a country seriously handicapped in important resources, they desperately needed certain resources from China. Their expansionistic tendencies were a result of survival. They heeded lessons learned from WWI about the importance of gasoline engines.

They had coal, but they were expecting to use quite a bit of that to produce synthetic fuel and was expecting help from Germany in that endeavor, but Germany fell and that was that.

Japan only had enough oil to wage war for two years. So, they needed a short victorious war. Quite a bit of their resources were squandered trying to make synthetic fuel. From coal, roots, and anything else that would suffice.

The Emperor was quoted saying that Japan went to war with the US because of oil, and lost because of oil.

cthia wrote:I wish I could find the documentary that started this feeding frenzy.

As I recall, Japan was a country seriously handicapped in important resources, they desperately needed certain resources from China. Their expansionistic tendencies were a result of survival. They heeded lessons learned from WWI about the importance of gasoline engines.

They had coal, but they were expecting to use quite a bit of that to produce synthetic fuel and was expecting help from Germany in that endeavor, but Germany fell and that was that.

Japan only had enough oil to wage war for two years. So, they needed a short victorious war. Quite a bit of their resources were squandered trying to make synthetic fuel. From coal, roots, and anything else that would suffice.

The Emperor was quoted saying that Japan went to war with the US because of oil, and lost because of oil.

That was the "survival" of the militarist state that had built up through successes, beginning perhaps with the Russo-Japanese War. The idea, set at that period, was that the great power had colonies the same as Great Britain and France. The same sort of ideas that were propelling Germany and Italy. But, as Germany encountered in the two world wars, those ideas brought you into military competition with other more established powers.

Now, you made the following statement before:

But it doesn't matter whether Roosevelt thought he was giving the Japanese a third alternative. It was whether the Japanese thought they had a third alternative. And they had already informed Roosevelt that they would not have any other alternative but to go to war if the oil was cut off.

I accept that was the Japanese viewpoint, to categorically reject any change in their Chinese policy; but they were given the choice (not to go to war, since that had already been happening for 4 years; but to expand that war to include the US). But that is not the only important viewpoint in this; there is also the viewpoint of the American public, which was willing to defend its own interests, but did not want to get involved in foreign wars. This was embodied in the Neutrality Acts of the 30's. Therefore Roosevelt, who had been re-elected on a pledge to keep the US out of foreign wars, could only issue orders that the US voters would accept. The increasingly stiff embargoes, intended to stop aggressive expansion, were viewed as fair domestically; although the Japanese did not agree.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:I wish I could find the documentary that started this feeding frenzy.

As I recall, Japan was a country seriously handicapped in important resources, they desperately needed certain resources from China. Their expansionistic tendencies were a result of survival. They heeded lessons learned from WWI about the importance of gasoline engines.

They had coal, but they were expecting to use quite a bit of that to produce synthetic fuel and was expecting help from Germany in that endeavor, but Germany fell and that was that.

Japan only had enough oil to wage war for two years. So, they needed a short victorious war. Quite a bit of their resources were squandered trying to make synthetic fuel. From coal, roots, and anything else that would suffice.

The Emperor was quoted saying that Japan went to war with the US because of oil, and lost because of oil.

That was the "survival" of the militarist state that had built up through successes, beginning perhaps with the Russo-Japanese War. The idea, set at that period, was that the great power had colonies the same as Great Britain and France. The same sort of ideas that were propelling Germany and Italy. But, as Germany encountered in the two world wars, those ideas brought you into military competition with other more established powers.

Now, you made the following statement before:

But it doesn't matter whether Roosevelt thought he was giving the Japanese a third alternative. It was whether the Japanese thought they had a third alternative. And they had already informed Roosevelt that they would not have any other alternative but to go to war if the oil was cut off.

I accept that was the Japanese viewpoint, to categorically reject any change in their Chinese policy; but they were given the choice (not to go to war, since that had already been happening for 4 years; but to expand that war to include the US). But that is not the only important viewpoint in this; there is also the viewpoint of the American public, which was willing to defend its own interests, but did not want to get involved in foreign wars. This was embodied in the Neutrality Acts of the 30's. Therefore Roosevelt, who had been re-elected on a pledge to keep the US out of foreign wars, could only issue orders that the US voters would accept. The increasingly stiff embargoes, intended to stop aggressive expansion, were viewed as fair domestically; although the Japanese did not agree.

I have often wondered how things would have gone if Japan would have had the leadership needed to envision a different way. Look what's happened since we kicked their behinds in WW2. They reorganized themselves domestically with a bit of help, went to a value added economy as they imported the resources they tried to steal by buying them, then using their industrial base to manufacture stuff and sell it over seas to become very rich. Sort of beats the merchantilist thinking that had trapped Japan's prewar planners, doesn't it? As an example, think cars. Think of the Hondas, Nissans, Subarus, Toyotas, etc. Some of the finest cars in the world, especially in terms of quality control. The only competitor that Europe offers for the mass market is VW.

We manufacture good vehicles here too. Ford's, Chevys and Dodges all give good service. But American consumers owe the Japanese a debt of gratitude for shoe horning its way into our domestic market and forcing Detroit to up its game a bit on quality control.

Don

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n7axw wrote:I have often wondered how things would have gone if Japan would have had the leadership needed to envision a different way. Look what's happened since we kicked their behinds in WW2. They reorganized themselves domestically with a bit of help, went to a value added economy as they imported the resources they tried to steal by buying them, then using their industrial base to manufacture stuff and sell it over seas to become very rich. Sort of beats the merchantilist thinking that had trapped Japan's prewar planners, doesn't it? As an example, think cars. Think of the Hondas, Nissans, Subarus, Toyotas, etc. Some of the finest cars in the world, especially in terms of quality control. The only competitor that Europe offers for the mass market is VW.

We manufacture good vehicles here too. Ford's, Chevys and Dodges all give good service. But American consumers owe the Japanese a debt of gratitude for shoe horning its way into our domestic market and forcing Detroit to up its game a bit on quality control.

Don

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I am totally with you there. It is said that people in the US idolize the cowboy life (as it was after the Civil War); Japan in turn idolized the way of the Samurai and as it began industrialization, managed to combine it with mercantilism and imperialism (learned from the West) and the attendant colonialism and racism (perhaps also learned from the West) into the plan for the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Whereas by emerging from the mercantile phase into the free trade world coupled with a strict adherence to quality control, Japan changed into one of the world's strongest economies. Even now that they are not the low cost provider they still have one of the stronger economies; something that prewar Japan could not even begin to imagine. In 2020 Japan's GDP was third in the world, behind only the USA and China.

cthia wrote:BTW, The Yawata Strike was a recreation of Pearl Harbor, without that same declaration of war. However, can you really blame a bunch of small fries who are about to attack a sleeping giant, even if they rather not warn him first?

Except that the other party failed to identify itself or formally declare war, even if after the fact. There were no diplomatic negotiations before to try and avert a war, no demands made on what the other side wanted.

The only reason I don't call it a terrorist attack is that it was executed by uniformed, military personnel of the Mesan Alignment Navy. On the other hand, even terrorists usually have demands or a point to make, however delusional it might be.

The Bewoulf Strike was a terrorist attack.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:BTW, The Yawata Strike was a recreation of Pearl Harbor, without that same declaration of war. However, can you really blame a bunch of small fries who are about to attack a sleeping giant, even if they rather not warn him first?

Except that the other party failed to identify itself or formally declare war, even if after the fact. There were no diplomatic negotiations before to try and avert a war, no demands made on what the other side wanted.

The only reason I don't call it a terrorist attack is that it was executed by uniformed, military personnel of the Mesan Alignment Navy. On the other hand, even terrorists usually have demands or a point to make, however delusional it might be.

The Bewoulf Strike was a terrorist attack.

The glaring problem with your thoughts is your consistency in erroneously attributing normality to this enemy. This is not your normal enemy. They are alien. Your criminal profile still needs much work. This enemy does not accept humanity's formal rules of war; which were born out of the more traditional morals, scruples, and values.

It reminds me, quite fittingly, of sci-fi movies when aliens attack Earth...

"What do they want?"

"Why have they attacked?"

"Why have they not contacted us?"

It is obvious what they want. They want us dead. They haven't contacted us because they don't have anything to say.

Why can't you understand that there can be no more of a formal declaration of war than a bomb falling on your head. War isn't pretty. I do not have to warn you or tell you why I want you dead. Keep crying over spilled milk while we keep spilling your blood.

And please, don't act as if the idea of attacking without a formal declaration of war is foreign to you. During the cold war, both the US and Russia feared the possibility of a first strike without warning by ICBMs.*

We will send you your declaration of war along with our bombs. Didn't the Mandarins use the same messenger?

* Oh, and of course, there was Pearl Harbor.

.

cthia wrote:The glaring problem with your thoughts is your consistency in erroneously attributing normality to this enemy. This is not your normal enemy. They are alien. Your criminal profile still needs much work. This enemy does not accept humanity's formal rules of war; which were born out of the more traditional morals, scruples, and values.

The point I'm trying to make is that the conventional rules of war would have required them to. They're obviously not adhering to that, and never wanted to (and I never assumed that they were). Meanwhile, the Japanese were at least trying to keep the semblance of following the rules of war. That's why I was saying that the comparison is flawed.