ThinksMarkedly wrote:cthia wrote:Let me get this straight. Imagine the War Room with the nice holotank and top brass is assembled to game it all out. I don't imagine the holotank is going to make the job that used to be done with old-fashioned pointers and miniature figures any easier for the admiralty when "virtually" none of the important variables are known.
As I said above, a siege is not the first strategy. The first thing you do to a newly discovered enemy location is surveillance. You watch it to see what assets it has, what its lines of communications and supply are, whether any weaknesses can be spotted in their operating procedures, etc.
No, it shouldn't be the first strategy. But against this foe, it may be the last. So, the plan is to surveil an invisible foe??? And the supposition is that such a highly paranoid population won't be using their stealth at home. That might be true, but banking on it doesn't seem responsible.
Why wouldn't the MA use their stealth 24/7 if they know they have unwanted flies hanging around? And why would you think the MA would not be aware that they have intruders? The plan is to watch invisible infrastructure. How do the watchers know that they are not being watched? If they are, they will be allowed to see only what the MA lets them see. IOW, now the plan is formulated upon misdirections, inaccuracies and ignorance.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Siege is the second option, if outright military victory isn't possible.
Outright military victory will not be possible, however, a siege should never be an option. Well, if you consider that the GA is going to have to force a confrontation with the enemy, then well, trying to pull off a siege will make that happen for certain.
cthia wrote:1. Where are their supply lines?
They could have invisible supply lines already set up in the system. And their invisible ships could be rearmed from system emplacements like the SLN ships were rearmed from the rear with Cataphracts.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Extremely unlikely that the supply ships are invisible all the time.
There's that dangerous word again. Unlikely. If the MA knows their location has been compromised, and/or if they know they are being watched they will take certain precautions. When any major system is under a DEFCON then certain precautions will be taken.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:It's extremely unlikely that the MAN is using stealth freighters with spiders. That would not only increase the operating cost enormously, it would be extremely reckless. It would increase the cost because the spider isn't cheap -- it's a new technology. It changes the hull form from the most advantageous volume/mass ratio (circular cross-section), which means the same mass of ship can carry less cargo. It increases the operating cost because the spider is so slow. And it increases the operating cost because the stealth is also a mass & power penalty to operate, around the clock. All of this increases the maintenance cost of the freighter. And on top of that, it's a security risk, because you multiply the number of spider ships with top-of-the-line stealth technology out there, and only one being detected or, worse, captured, gives the game away.
I don't think there are going to be any freighters whatsoever entering this classified system. I think the MA will have true colliers built upon the spider drive. You talk about a mass and power penalty to operate the spider. In a war, it won't matter. Also, I question whether the GA will be able to get close enough to see supply lines. When hypering into a system their Home Fleet is invisible until they light off their drives. Regardless, I hardly think any ship to ship transfers are visible. Besides, there is a thing called contingency plans, and during war everything changes. Supply lines are moved and closely protected.
Besides, a siege is not a plan to adopt against an entirely self sufficient system. Sure, you may be able to starve them out in a couple of years. If you can at least see your targets. Heck, our government AND our allies couldn't effectively blockade North Korea. NK kept getting supplies from somewhere. A siege is simply a no go.
Most of the questions upstream are mostly known against other foe. You have an idea about the strength of their Home Fleet, their weapons, etc. You normally even know when the enemy must be drawing down Home Fleet to cover weaknesses. You know nothing of the sort against this foe. And getting to that point will take lots of time. In any other system you have your own ships going in and out of the system all of the time. In Darius. No.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Plus, that makes the warships more expensive and/or late too, since they now compete with the freighters for shipyard and other resource allocations.
Even if all of that were true, which I can't see being so, there's the question of being stealth ALL the time. The surveillance ship will focus their scanners and Ghost Riders on the points where the stealth ships must go: the ship yards, the industrial centres, etc. Once the stealth ship opens its doors to load and reload, the stealth is compromised and it s very visible. Then the surveillance ship will just covertly stalk that ship to see where it's going.
What surveillance ship? You think the GA is going to be able to get a ship close enough to surveil a Spider? You do know that any common variety of Spider has Spider senses that tingle?

But really, you think a wedge powered surveillance ship can slink that far into the system??? No. Drones? No. You think any spider driven ship will be visible at range simply because it drops its stealth? At that point it will be no different than a wedge powered ship with the wedge down. Invisible.
cthia wrote:2. Is there a back way into the town?
— "We don't know. There could be another junction leading in and out."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Two junctions in a system? Unless they've already gone through the Twins, they wouldn't think about that.
If you meant whether there may be a junction in a nearby star system, like the Phoenix Wormhole "Junction," then sure. But even then a round-trip time is a week, plus whatever time on the other side.
Yes, I have been saying for eons that Darius could be a system with unusual anomalies. So I don't rule out anything just because the author hasn't shared them with us. But yes, a very close neighboring system could have yet another series of rabbit holes. And once war breaks out and the supply lines get in full swing, deliveries could be made as frequent as they like. But a siege isn't a very good plan. Self sufficient systems simply are not living paycheck to paycheck, freighter to freighter. They've got enough stuff already stockpiled to finish you and your convoy off - what's left of it anyway, after your luggage is destroyed.
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Again, tailing the ships that are going from this system to figure out where they're going and who the allies are would be the first order of the day.
Well at least that is a plan that could bear fruit. Although, I caution total reliance upon it. This is a very paranoid foe, and you will simply be shocked at the number of cutouts, back tracking and extraneous routes taken to shake n bake, or to set-up or destroy a tail.
cthia wrote:3. Where are their warships?
— "We don't know."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:A few of them are visible on the shipyards.
See above. That's not true. Even GA ships are not visible when their wedges are down. And these ships have no wedges.
cthia wrote:4. What do they have for system defense?
— "We don't know."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's generally true of any system. Most of the defences aren't advertised and must be discovered by other means, such as leaked intelligence or leaked emissions. Finding out as much as possible about this, such as observing the maintenance of a weapons platform or missile pod, is quite required.
True. But some facts are always known, like the probability of forts launching missiles with wedges, and the range of those missiles is known. The likelihood of mines are known and their location. General knowledge of the main armaments are also known. Here, those kinds of things are totally unknown. And you won't discover anything with informants you have managed to place inside the "system."
cthia wrote:5. What is the order of battle of their Home Fleet?
— "We don't know. We can't see it anyway."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:Ditto as above. The ones that are in active patrol will eventually rotate back to receive resupply. At that point, they're visible.
Another point is that the size of the observed shipyards and the pace at which they're constructing now can give an upper number of ships that could have been produced. (In this shipyard, of course; they'd have to wonder if there aren't others in other undiscovered systems)
No Ditto applies here either. Besides, the strength of Home Fleet is generally known. Before the alliance, the SK and Haven were aware of the approximate size of each other's Home Fleet. It could even be determined when Home Fleet was being drawn down to cover weaknesses.
cthia wrote:6. What type of weapons do they have?
— "We don't know."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:As above. You either need intelligence breakthroughs or you need to face them in battle to get their measure.
Now you're coming close to reality. The GA will have to force a confrontation. That is one way to gain intel. You can go back home and let them examine the missile they remove out of your orifice later. Then come back for round 2.
cthia wrote:8. Well do we at least have a good location we can use as a staging area?
— "We don't know for sure. We can wing it by stooging outside their hyper limit."
ThinksMarkedly wrote:That one we can say for sure is the wrong answer. There are any number of empty systems nearby, within a few days' travel, that could be used as a staging point. They will know the astrography much better than we can.
There goes another assumption. You can't ever know for sure that any heretofore unknown systems are ever empty. Your entire contingent could have just hypered into a system literally crawling with Spiders out wargaming.
cthia wrote:"We can't see what we're supposed to be surrounding? And we won't know whether WE are surrounded?
ThinksMarkedly wrote:You can't see a planet? We've been able to see planets in our sky since we've had eyes!
I agree you won't know if you're surrounded, but I counter by saying there's no way that the surrounding of a significantly-sized fleet can affect its movements. It can always get out. Sieges aren't done to mobile forces; they are done to fixed population and industrial centres.
Of course you can see the planet. So at least you'll know you're in an inhabited system. But to effect a siege you've got to surround the planet AND its defenses and supply lines. The things that are critical to your siege you cannot see.
BTW, when you surround prey. How do you know if you caught anything in the circle if the prey is invisible?
Anyone remember this as a kid ...
"Hey bro, I caught a fly in my hand. Honest ... look. Damn, where'd the bugger go?"