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When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots

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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:16 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:The strategy I take from what you're describing is to insert 2 or 3 of them into key systems, at least 6 months ahead of time of any operational need. Then they approach the inner system, without crossing into the hyper limit, and loiter somewhere within a light-hour (that's Saturn's orbit for us). Then they wait for a trigger command to be sent, probably as an innocuous broadcast. With their size, they may be able to remain on-station for years, which sounds like the minimum needed if it takes 3-6 months to insert.


BTW, 1 light hour is insufficient. They need 2.83 light-hours to accelerate from a relative standing start to 0.1c. To get to 0.2c, they must be past the equivalent of Pluto's orbit (5.6 light hours). I'd say that anything that far would need a directed transmission. To retain OpSec, they probably need to deploy a relay instead and therefore they must have a healthy supply of stealth relays.

munroburton wrote:Although they act like them in a lot of ways, LDs don't provide the second-strike deterrence capability of SSBNs and are first-strike weapons. The Alignment believes mutual destruction does not apply to them and have already pulled the trigger - a blind spot?


Why do you say that? If Darius' fall were imminent, the Alignment could send DBs to activate them.

But the cost here is lopsided. They may operate like an SSBN (stealth, no one knows where they are; have very long operational deployments; take a long time to arrive in position), but they cost like a supercarrier to build and operate.

One per system. I said two or three because Oyster Bay took place in two and a half star systems(Manticore A, B and Yeltsin's Star). It's not inconceivable that a single LD could perform both parts of the Manticore strikes. That might be pushing it, admittedly and playing safe would require at least two, with the third at Yeltsin.


Quite unlikely, assuming the same tactic of accelerating the torpedoes in-system and providing last-minute targetting corrections. One ships can't attack two targets light-hours apart in less time than it takes the FTL comms to warn the other target. It couldn't outrun relayed light-speed communication. And it wouldn't want to try that any way because the ship would need to follow a very narrow path between the two bodies, so locating it might not be too difficult. So it's one ship per hyperlimit, and a system may have several, like Jupiter has a 3 light-minute hyperlimit and Blackbird has one too.

BTW, if it's going to provide close-in targetting corrections, it's a near-suicide mission to go into the stellar hyperlimit. It might be an issue of crying over spilt milk or closing the barn after the horses have escaped, but you those whom it attacked would be out for revenge.

Of those 4,000 systems, how many command a real navy? Fewer than a hundred even have wallers and half of those bought theirs, meaning they don't have adequate support infrastructure to begin with. So many more are practically naked, like Nuncio, Monica or pre-Alliance Grayson. Some are naked when they shouldn't be, like Hypatia.


I'm just going with your suggestion of "two to four thousand planets-as-petri dishes" but I now guess you didn't mean attacking those with LDs, but the spoils of having won. So let's forget this high number.

The SLN is part of the problem; they have helpfully consolidated the military infrastructure of almost two thousand systems into a few dozen locations.

After hitting the first-rank systems in the first wave, they can assault other systems much more rapidly. Hyper in, roll these missile pods and torpedoes, make a single firing pass and hyper out. A squadron of battlecruisers in the way? No sweat.


I agree that there's probably a few dozen systems that are tier one enough and have very sensitive hyper detection arrays. Then there's probably a couple hundred with some navy and some hyper detection capability, enough that they can't be ignored. A squadron of battlecruisers may give an LD pause, because it's an eggshell if detected. So it must still insert a light-week or two away, meaning it's going to spend one month attacking each system.

With streak drives, they might even manage to outrace the dispatch boats leaving these attacked systems. It's all over before anyone figures out what's happening on an interstellar scale.


Via hyper, yes. They can't outrace a wormhole and they dare not transit wormholes where there's enemy traffic. And since the GA does know the secret to the streak drive, they need to plan assuming the rest of the Galaxy will be as fast in hyper as they will be.

Unless they have a secret wormhole network or manage to acquire one with force, they have to plan assuming they can't outrun the information. And all indications are that they have a single secret Junction, plus one useless wormhole (the Twins-Torch one), at least until they dispatch any forces from the Congo System that could intercept.

I'm not saying it would be easy to enforce their reign. They're going to miss a lot going on that they wouldn't approve of. But at that point, they have merely become a nastier version of OFS and that had centuries of unrivalled hegemony with light cruisers and destroyers.

The future Alignment could stay on top by not permitting any interstellar alliances or nations to form or exist other than their empire. Instead of parking ten thousand superdreadnoughts in whatever their version of the Core is, they actively mount expeditions to squash anyone with the temerity to build an orbital shipyard.

The only potential flies in the ointment are other people's Dariuses(or Boltholes) becoming capable of overwhelming the Alignment's more conventional forces.


Ok, now this is interesting, you're talking about the strategy for retaining power once achieved. I don't think this has been discussed before.

Clearly the Detweiler Plan implies placing the Alphas at the top and controlling everyone else. You're probably right that they would enforce a policy of no one being allowed to have a military in the first place. This may not be as easy as it seems: taking a page from cthia's book, someone could got away in a colony ship and build up a few hundred light-years away, then come back with overwhelming force.
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:25 pm

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We end up discussing military strategy and tactics again and how to make use of an LD. My point in this thread is that the MAlign may not be focusing sufficiently on that. They definitely don't have the experience and therefore they don't have experienced people to teach the next generation. The body of MAN practical knowledge comes from having served with the Mannerheim System Navy, which was an outsized Navy so I expect they had a squadron of SDs. The MAlign intentionally kept the Mesan System Navy small and a joke, so that's not where the knowledge will come from.

They may have a plan for holding their reign after they've won. That is their forte: long-term, pulling strings from the shadow. The Renaissance Factor existing as the new, shining beacon of light out of the chaos is the front. Plus they'll have "saved" people and have improved their lives through genetic uplift.

It's the winning that is the problem, because they need to win militarily to do that. If the plan was only the genetic uplift (what Leonard Detweiler wanted), they could still win by long-term planning and pulling strings.

But that's not what they want to do. And since we know The Good Guys Will Win In The End™, this could be the major factor of their downfall.
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by jtg452   » Thu Aug 26, 2021 9:12 am

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cthia wrote:Why exactly did they attempt the Andermani assassination? How was the Anderman Empire a detriment to their long range plans?

It's never been fully explained.

Personally, I that it was at least partially a field test of the nanotech. As for target selection, wasn't the prince one of the more pro-Manty voices in the upper echelons of the Andy government and one of the more vocal anti-slavery voices there, too?

Again, the hubris and impatience of Detweilers A through G pays big dividends!

They all also seem to be too personally vested in the project and have become more Anti Manty than Pro Detweiler Plan. If you're going to run something this big for this long, then you need good management and the current Detweilers really suck at it. Way too impulsive and prone to lash out.

The Beuwulf strike is pure spite and revenge for the loss of Albrect in Houdini. It wasn't 'covert' by any means and the plausibility that it was the Sollies is nonexistent. Even the Solly Admiral on the spot was wondering who was taking out the Mycroft platforms for him and were they setting him up to take a fall. I've always felt that was a big reason that he broke off as early as he did.
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by Theemile   » Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:30 pm

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jtg452 wrote:
cthia wrote:Why exactly did they attempt the Andermani assassination? How was the Anderman Empire a detriment to their long range plans?

It's never been fully explained.

Personally, I that it was at least partially a field test of the nanotech. As for target selection, wasn't the prince one of the more pro-Manty voices in the upper echelons of the Andy government and one of the more vocal anti-slavery voices there, too?


Actually, we have a bit. It was known as the "Hofschulte affair". Colonial Hofschulte (or whatever the germanic version of Colonial is), was a distant member of the Andermani Imperial family and a trusted member of the Imperial ruling elite and a "close", trusted family member of the Imperial family. One day, in the presence of the young Andermani heir-to-be, "Uncle" Hofschulte" pulls his pistol and tries to take out the heir, and is cut down in a hail of pulser darts.

This happened at a point prior to Honor's tour in the Wayfarer, and when she met the Andermani Admiral, he had Totenkopf guards to protect him since he was part of the Imperial dynastic lineage.

Later it was determined that this was probably the first major usage of the nano virial assination method, specifically since no motive could ever be found for the action by the Colonial; for even if he had succeeded, it would be suicide for him.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by ThinksMarkedly   » Thu Aug 26, 2021 1:47 pm

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Theemile wrote:Actually, we have a bit. It was known as the "Hofschulte affair". Colonial Hofschulte (or whatever the germanic version of Colonial is)


The equivalent of Colonel in the German-speaking world is Oberst, both are NATO rank OF-5.

Unlike the naval OF-5 "Kapitän zur See" (Captain at sea), there's no real reason for it to change in a space setting. But I like that David came up with the term "Kapitän der Sterne."

was a distant member of the Andermani Imperial family and a trusted member of the Imperial ruling elite and a "close", trusted family member of the Imperial family. One day, in the presence of the young Andermani heir-to-be, "Uncle" Hofschulte" pulls his pistol and tries to take out the heir, and is cut down in a hail of pulser darts.

This happened at a point prior to Honor's tour in the Wayfarer, and when she met the Andermani Admiral, he had Totenkopf guards to protect him since he was part of the Imperial dynastic lineage.

Later it was determined that this was probably the first major usage of the nano virial assination method, specifically since no motive could ever be found for the action by the Colonial; for even if he had succeeded, it would be suicide for him.


Oh, it was that old? Damn sneaky author inserting clues half a dozen books before they're needed. Did David think of the MAlign and what method of assassination they'd have employed back then, or did he just need a plot device to introduce the Totenkopf and the heightened state of alert? Though... since the Totenkopf didn't have any consequence in that novel, I don't see a need for a plot device in the first place. At best they served to highlight how Großadmiral von Rabenstrange was important, but his rank, his title (Herzog, a.k.a. Duke), and his surname (Anderman) were already sufficient.

How many other clues may have gone unnoticed so far because they haven't yet been needed or because RFC changed his mind?
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by Theemile   » Thu Aug 26, 2021 3:27 pm

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:
How many other clues may have gone unnoticed so far because they haven't yet been needed or because RFC changed his mind?


David used to discuss the use of "Checkov's Rifle" in writing all the time. Uunfortunately, at this point, that fireplace mantle is either holding up an entire Imperial Arsenal, or has been upgraded to a DShK with several ammo belts threaded through it.

I still want to know the outcome of (and the reason for) the opening chapter with the Andermani Cruiser seeing the merchant ship displaying the transponder code that it had been hijacked by pirates. Yes, it gave us more exposition into piracy... it just felt it should have let to... more?
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by Louis R   » Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:37 am

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Believe it or not, that op appears to have been simply the field-test of a new weapon system; at least that was the impression I took from the brief discussion of it at the meeting where Anisimovna and Bardasano are sent off to Monica - which is where Bardasano cautions against over or too-casual use of it.

I can only speculate about the choice of target: Prince Huang was something of a nuisance, since he'd jettisoned that infamous Andy pragmatism where slavery was concerned and was influential enough for the IAN to follow his lead, the Andies tech base was more than good enough for them to pick up anomalies if the agent _didn't_ vanish away as anticipated, and the MA had good enough penetration to be sure they hear about it if the Andies did notice something. If you assume that Hofschulte wasn't a client of Manpower's rec centres, the additional complication of getting the samples required to set up the agent only improved the quality of the test setup. All-in-all, a near perfect black op test bed, with nothing to point back past Manpower if it did go awry.

And it seems to have gone exactly as planned, leaving the Detweilers pretty relaxed about using it in Haven - they weren't the only people to underestimate the new Republic's sophistication and thoroughness when it came to 'accidents' [BTW, it was Grosclaude who was killed with it, not Giancola - he really was an accident, in so far as drunk driving can ever be 'accidental']

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
cthia wrote:Why exactly did they attempt the Andermani assassination? How was the Anderman Empire a detriment to their long range plans?


I don't think it's been explained yet. I don't even know if it was an Alignment action or whether the nanites were provided to some Andermani player in exchange for their long-term services, the same way that they were to their Haven agent (blanking on his name and on whether the nanites were used to kill Secretary Giancola).
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by Louis R   » Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:56 am

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I'm afraid Emile is confused: the Hofschulte Incident occurred in the interval between AoV and WoH, but we see the Totenkopf Hussars in HAE, and Honor is allowed to bring her armsmen with her, armed, when she first meets von Rabenstrange. Something that the Emperor has expressly forbidden by WoH because of the Incident.

Oh, and Prince Huang was the Emperor's younger brother, not his immediate heir. But attacking him was still seen as an attack on the dynasty.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Theemile wrote:Actually, we have a bit. It was known as the "Hofschulte affair". Colonial Hofschulte (or whatever the germanic version of Colonial is)


The equivalent of Colonel in the German-speaking world is Oberst, both are NATO rank OF-5.

Unlike the naval OF-5 "Kapitän zur See" (Captain at sea), there's no real reason for it to change in a space setting. But I like that David came up with the term "Kapitän der Sterne."

was a distant member of the Andermani Imperial family and a trusted member of the Imperial ruling elite and a "close", trusted family member of the Imperial family. One day, in the presence of the young Andermani heir-to-be, "Uncle" Hofschulte" pulls his pistol and tries to take out the heir, and is cut down in a hail of pulser darts.

This happened at a point prior to Honor's tour in the Wayfarer, and when she met the Andermani Admiral, he had Totenkopf guards to protect him since he was part of the Imperial dynastic lineage.

Later it was determined that this was probably the first major usage of the nano virial assination method, specifically since no motive could ever be found for the action by the Colonial; for even if he had succeeded, it would be suicide for him.


Oh, it was that old? Damn sneaky author inserting clues half a dozen books before they're needed. Did David think of the MAlign and what method of assassination they'd have employed back then, or did he just need a plot device to introduce the Totenkopf and the heightened state of alert? Though... since the Totenkopf didn't have any consequence in that novel, I don't see a need for a plot device in the first place. At best they served to highlight how Großadmiral von Rabenstrange was important, but his rank, his title (Herzog, a.k.a. Duke), and his surname (Anderman) were already sufficient.

How many other clues may have gone unnoticed so far because they haven't yet been needed or because RFC changed his mind?
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by munroburton   » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:51 am

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ThinksMarkedly wrote:I agree that there's probably a few dozen systems that are tier one enough and have very sensitive hyper detection arrays. Then there's probably a couple hundred with some navy and some hyper detection capability, enough that they can't be ignored. A squadron of battlecruisers may give an LD pause, because it's an eggshell if detected. So it must still insert a light-week or two away, meaning it's going to spend one month attacking each system.

LDs aren't going to be that eggshelly. If they resemble forts, they are definitely not eggshells but something that has to be pounded into wreckage with large gobs of firepower. Since SVW, we know multiple battlecruisers don't perform that well against single dreadnoughts - and a LD is likely to be exponentially tougher than that single dreadnought, if less maneuverable.

Those are not nice people. Against weaker targets, they can pop over the hyper wall quietly, fire from beyond the hyper limit and leave, to hell with the collateral damage. They only needed such severe reconaissance during Oyster Bay because they were operating on a shoestring and had to ensure every missile and every torpedo was precisely on target.

With streak drives, they might even manage to outrace the dispatch boats leaving these attacked systems. It's all over before anyone figures out what's happening on an interstellar scale.


Via hyper, yes. They can't outrace a wormhole and they dare not transit wormholes where there's enemy traffic. And since the GA does know the secret to the streak drive, they need to plan assuming the rest of the Galaxy will be as fast in hyper as they will be.


That would be why all wormhole nodes should be among the first-rank targets. Someone like Manticore is supposed to be sitting there reeling from Yawata 2.0 with Beowulf, San Martin and Basilisk immediately reporting the same attacks, then getting those dispatch boats arriving from everywhere screaming for aid over the next year.

But yes, the GA could interfere with some of these secondary and tertiary targets if they put streak drives in everything they have and can divine some kind of pattern.

I'm not saying it would be easy to enforce their reign. They're going to miss a lot going on that they wouldn't approve of. But at that point, they have merely become a nastier version of OFS and that had centuries of unrivalled hegemony with light cruisers and destroyers.

The future Alignment could stay on top by not permitting any interstellar alliances or nations to form or exist other than their empire. Instead of parking ten thousand superdreadnoughts in whatever their version of the Core is, they actively mount expeditions to squash anyone with the temerity to build an orbital shipyard.

The only potential flies in the ointment are other people's Dariuses(or Boltholes) becoming capable of overwhelming the Alignment's more conventional forces.


Ok, now this is interesting, you're talking about the strategy for retaining power once achieved. I don't think this has been discussed before.

Clearly the Detweiler Plan implies placing the Alphas at the top and controlling everyone else. You're probably right that they would enforce a policy of no one being allowed to have a military in the first place. This may not be as easy as it seems: taking a page from cthia's book, someone could got away in a colony ship and build up a few hundred light-years away, then come back with overwhelming force.


Indeed; the possibility of other people's Boltholes. Unfortunately, those have to be established before the big MAlign take-over and kept concealed during - otherwise the galaxy will be awaiting liberation for centuries.

You see, the MAlign bootstrapped Darius by using cloned slaves and they tapped the cream of Solarian technologies for their industrial base. It still took them a century or two to grow up - compared to a few decades for Manticore to upgrade Grayson or Haven to pull up Bolthole, both with large pre-existing populations which actually started a thousand years ago.

If the good guys start from scratch, they're going to need closer to that thousand years - or they can find yet another long-lost colony with several billion humans prepared to go to war.
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Re: When you're a hammer: MAlign blind spots
Post by Theemile   » Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:11 am

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Louis R wrote:I'm afraid Emile is confused: the Hofschulte Incident occurred in the interval between AoV and WoH, but we see the Totenkopf Hussars in HAE, and Honor is allowed to bring her armsmen with her, armed, when she first meets von Rabenstrange. Something that the Emperor has expressly forbidden by WoH because of the Incident.

Oh, and Prince Huang was the Emperor's younger brother, not his immediate heir. But attacking him was still seen as an attack on the dynasty.




Thanks for patching the holes in my Memory Louis! Reasons to always go look at the notes for the old stuff before posting.
******
RFC said "refitting a Beowulfan SD to Manticoran standards would be just as difficult as refitting a standard SLN SD to those standards. In other words, it would be cheaper and faster to build new ships."
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