MAlignment and forward command

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:It strikes me that anybody in the Honorverse trying to reverse engineer where coordination of a given set of activities is coming from faces enough challenges to make it nigh impossible. Even if you ruled out (even subconsciously) the possibility of faster hyper travel, not only do you have to consider the possibility that command has been delegated to a forward base but also the possibility that they've got access to at least one unknown wormhole.

Either of those two would distort any time/distance plots you'd try to put together so badly they're likely meaningless.

It seems to me they're also ignoring the possibility of an unknown wormhole. No one raised that during the discussions we've been told, at least.

Wormholes are usually an economic boon to anyone who controls them, so they're not expected to remain hidden. You can't make money off transit fees if no one is transiting. So it hasn't occurred to them that someone would keep a wormhole hidden for tactical and strategic advantages (and they'll think it's crazy to do so for over a T-century!).

Lacoön did confer a military tactical advantage to the GA, but it was primarily an economic warfare tactic.

Well?

First the WH has to have a favorable location for it to be of any economic value in the traditional sense. Recall Haven's dried up junction which has no economic value? If the MA's WH is located in the middle of nowheresville, it may not have any value other than strategic and or tactical. Recall also Haven's own WH which hides Bolthole.

Plus, even if it is located in the midst of a host of bustling Class M planets, it could be used to cheat the market. Close proximity to markets without it being known can help corner the market for an unscrupulous operation. The MA certainly fits that bill. Plus, keeping it hidden is protection against acts of aggression. Like Lacoon.

At any rate, a strategic and tactical hidey hole is its own economic boon, even without a Streak Boat to further assist in cornering markets.

Late edit: Plus, hidden WHs can be a boon to your economy by capitalizing off of being able to pilfer other economies and disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space. Pirates would love to control a strategic hidden hidey hole. Plus, you can manipulate other markets with hit-n-run tactics. See Oyster Bay.

cthia wrote:Late edit: Plus, hidden WHs can be a boon to your economy by capitalizing off of being able to pilfer other economies and disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space. Pirates would love to control a strategic hidden hidey hole. Plus, you can manipulate other markets with hit-n-run tactics. See Oyster Bay.

Though a pirate pretty much just needs to pop over the hyper limit to disappear.

An otherwise unknown wormhole might let them fence their goods in a distant sector; which could be good for them. But if they're still on any warship's sensors after entering hyper they're unlikely to evade long enough to make it to the system with their secret wormhole. So basically they'd either have broken any pursuit long before they got there or they'd be captured/dead.

And even if by some miracle they did reach the wormhole with an pursuer on their tail disappearing down the wormhole would be a one-time trick. After that the pursuer would let the rest of their SDF/Navy about it and it'd get blockaded (or maybe even mined; depending on how pissed off said force was about the piracy)


So I don't see it as so useful for "disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space".

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:Late edit: Plus, hidden WHs can be a boon to your economy by capitalizing off of being able to pilfer other economies and disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space. Pirates would love to control a strategic hidden hidey hole. Plus, you can manipulate other markets with hit-n-run tactics. See Oyster Bay.

Though a pirate pretty much just needs to pop over the hyper limit to disappear.

An otherwise unknown wormhole might let them fence their goods in a distant sector; which could be good for them. But if they're still on any warship's sensors after entering hyper they're unlikely to evade long enough to make it to the system with their secret wormhole. So basically they'd either have broken any pursuit long before they got there or they'd be captured/dead.

And even if by some miracle they did reach the wormhole with an pursuer on their tail disappearing down the wormhole would be a one-time trick. After that the pursuer would let the rest of their SDF/Navy about it and it'd get blockaded (or maybe even mined; depending on how pissed off said force was about the piracy)


So I don't see it as so useful for "disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space".

All true, but you failed to notice the sucker punch. I was talking about the MAlign, whose deeds are no better than pirates. And with very stealthed ships they can disappear easily. Upward translations have no tell-tale signs.

At any rate, even run-of-the-mill pirates are at least as smart as Cowboys. Make sure you lose your tail before you lead them back to the hideout. No?

Jonathan_S wrote:It strikes me that anybody in the Honorverse trying to reverse engineer where coordination of a given set of activities is coming from faces enough challenges to make it nigh impossible. Even if you ruled out (even subconsciously) the possibility of faster hyper travel, not only do you have to consider the possibility that command has been delegated to a forward base but also the possibility that they've got access to at least one unknown wormhole.

Either of those two would distort any time/distance plots you'd try to put together so badly they're likely meaningless.

I agree. It mimicks what I said upstream. There are simply too many variables. Besides, in the HV, forward commands can be simple starships, not warships. It can be something as simple as an inconspicuous yacht, or it could have the super powers of diplomatic immunity in a Dispatch Boat. Even though the GA had no clue, they could be stealthed warships. Essentially an invisible forward mobile command in the same vein as Air Force One.

cthia wrote:First the WH has to have a favorable location for it to be of any economic value in the traditional sense. Recall Haven's dried up junction which has no economic value? If the MA's WH is located in the middle of nowheresville, it may not have any value other than strategic and or tactical. Recall also Haven's own WH which hides Bolthole.

Plus, even if it is located in the midst of a host of bustling Class M planets, it could be used to cheat the market. Close proximity to markets without it being known can help corner the market for an unscrupulous operation. The MA certainly fits that bill. Plus, keeping it hidden is protection against acts of aggression. Like Lacoon.

The Calvin Wormhole Bridge would have been an economic boon to the Haven economy, if it had allowed Sanctuary to develop and Haven had had an economy that could support it in the first place. In fact, after Theisman and Pritchart took over, I'm pretty sure that wormwhole was indeed generating economic value for the new Republic of Haven all by itself, just by the existence of the shipyards in the Sanctuary system. I really mean economic value, not just military-industrial.

When this wormhole becomes known, it will create even more value. It's true it connects to the middle of nowhere right now, with no inhabited planet within a dozen light-years besides Sanctuary. But that means there are a few close by, not much farther from the terminus than most of the Talbott Quadrant's members are from the Lynx terminus of the MWHJ. With the RoH's economy finally back in shape, those are very tempting markets. And with the Union abolishing or lowering transit fees in all of its wormholes for Havenite and Manticore shipping, those systems will benefit from trade with a lot of sources and destinations that now suddenly become economically viable.

However, what this tells me is something I completely missed: someone else did think about keeping a wormhole hidden and the existence of this wormhole came to light to Manticore after Oyster Bay and after Herlander Simões told of the existence of the Alignment. So it should have occurred to someone that the MAlign could have done the same and this could indeed explain the transit times for control loop, even in absence of the streak drive.

It doesn't help them pinpoint where the wormhole is, though.

Late edit: Plus, hidden WHs can be a boon to your economy by capitalizing off of being able to pilfer other economies and disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space. Pirates would love to control a strategic hidden hidey hole. Plus, you can manipulate other markets with hit-n-run tactics. See Oyster Bay.

Pirates (not counting the MAlign there, they're at best privateers) would not have access to a hidden wormhole. It takes a massive investment to find a wormhole and figure out the transit vectors to them. No pirate or pirate gruping is going to have the resources to do that. And even if a group magically managed to do so, that arrangement isn't stable: someone is going to get caught and will sell the location of the terminus for an unspecified amount of cash and immunity from prosecution. Then a nation state moves in and takes over.

As for a nation state keeping a wormhole secret while profiting from it for economic value in foreign markets, that's also not a long-term stable arrangement. Either transit times to known locations will become obvious very quickly or the source or destination of the goods traded will be mysterious, which will call attention by itself. Any company worth its salt is going to try and understand its market, so it will want to know whom it's selling its good to -- and that's not the merchants that carry it to the destination. And any competent market watchdog is going to want to know where the goods arriving in its market are coming from.

I could see this arrangement lasting for only a short while, with very poor and corrupt systems being exploited, such as the type of arrangement the OFS and the transstellars did. But like those, that's somewhat short-term and an incredible misuse of the potential.

And extremely risky. If you don't fortify your wormhole, you risk it being taken away by someone who can.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:First the WH has to have a favorable location for it to be of any economic value in the traditional sense. Recall Haven's dried up junction which has no economic value? If the MA's WH is located in the middle of nowheresville, it may not have any value other than strategic and or tactical. Recall also Haven's own WH which hides Bolthole.

Plus, even if it is located in the midst of a host of bustling Class M planets, it could be used to cheat the market. Close proximity to markets without it being known can help corner the market for an unscrupulous operation. The MA certainly fits that bill. Plus, keeping it hidden is protection against acts of aggression. Like Lacoon.

The Calvin Wormhole Bridge would have been an economic boon to the Haven economy, if it had allowed Sanctuary to develop and Haven had had an economy that could support it in the first place. In fact, after Theisman and Pritchart took over, I'm pretty sure that wormwhole was indeed generating economic value for the new Republic of Haven all by itself, just by the existence of the shipyards in the Sanctuary system. I really mean economic value, not just military-industrial.

When this wormhole becomes known, it will create even more value. It's true it connects to the middle of nowhere right now, with no inhabited planet within a dozen light-years besides Sanctuary. But that means there are a few close by, not much farther from the terminus than most of the Talbott Quadrant's members are from the Lynx terminus of the MWHJ. With the RoH's economy finally back in shape, those are very tempting markets. And with the Union abolishing or lowering transit fees in all of its wormholes for Havenite and Manticore shipping, those systems will benefit from trade with a lot of sources and destinations that now suddenly become economically viable.

However, what this tells me is something I completely missed: someone else did think about keeping a wormhole hidden and the existence of this wormhole came to light to Manticore after Oyster Bay and after Herlander Simões told of the existence of the Alignment. So it should have occurred to someone that the MAlign could have done the same and this could indeed explain the transit times for control loop, even in absence of the streak drive.

It doesn't help them pinpoint where the wormhole is, though.

Late edit: Plus, hidden WHs can be a boon to your economy by capitalizing off of being able to pilfer other economies and disappearing with the booty through a magic hole in space. Pirates would love to control a strategic hidden hidey hole. Plus, you can manipulate other markets with hit-n-run tactics. See Oyster Bay.

Pirates (not counting the MAlign there, they're at best privateers) would not have access to a hidden wormhole. It takes a massive investment to find a wormhole and figure out the transit vectors to them. No pirate or pirate gruping is going to have the resources to do that. And even if a group magically managed to do so, that arrangement isn't stable: someone is going to get caught and will sell the location of the terminus for an unspecified amount of cash and immunity from prosecution. Then a nation state moves in and takes over.

As for a nation state keeping a wormhole secret while profiting from it for economic value in foreign markets, that's also not a long-term stable arrangement. Either transit times to known locations will become obvious very quickly or the source or destination of the goods traded will be mysterious, which will call attention by itself. Any company worth its salt is going to try and understand its market, so it will want to know whom it's selling its good to -- and that's not the merchants that carry it to the destination. And any competent market watchdog is going to want to know where the goods arriving in its market are coming from.

I could see this arrangement lasting for only a short while, with very poor and corrupt systems being exploited, such as the type of arrangement the OFS and the transstellars did. But like those, that's somewhat short-term and an incredible misuse of the potential.

And extremely risky. If you don't fortify your wormhole, you risk it being taken away by someone who can.

Ah, I see your very good points. And there are other angles to that. First, there are very subtle differences between hiding a WH and hiding a naval base. Each of those can easily get lost in the muck and mire of details. But in both of our cases they happen to be the very unlikely... one and the same. So, I can forgive the RMN, at least, for being hard-pressed to think that that very severe though totally rare lightning storm would strike twice. Haven, OTOH, might should have considered it.

About those pirates. I see no reason why the MO of the MA wouldn't include financing pirates by proxy to do the dirty deeds, even encouraging them to do so, and going even further by buying their goods. Literally giving them a market by fencing and "laundering" their efforts. The MA bankrolled a lot of seemingly expensive ventures which should have left monstrous paper trails yet somehow didn't. That may be because the cutouts were hired hands. As they always were. Case in point, I always thought the SLN ships that were "lost" were smuggled through the hidden WH. And I maintain that most likely many more "lost" SLN ships fell prey to that WH as well. There is just no way I will believe the SLN could keep track of so many ships when corruption was so rampant.

But, laundering goods and money is a common crime which is difficult to trace much less catch even on Earth today. In the HV I would imagine it is damn near foolproof, especially with hidden escape routes to hidden markets. All it would take is a corrupt port in a corrupt system as a temporary waypoint. Which are a dime a dozen. You can't fault poor systems for turning a blind eye when they are literally raking in the dough. And if these are MA patsies then it just gets better. Mesa was this same type patsy.

At any rate, in both cases of the hidden WH, the WHs are presently far more valuable as stash houses than potential gold mines. After all, all the riches in the world are useless if you are dead.

cthia wrote:About those pirates. I see no reason why the MO of the MA wouldn't include financing pirates by proxy to do the dirty deeds, even encouraging them to do so, and going even further by buying their goods. Literally giving them a market by fencing and "laundering" their efforts. The MA bankrolled a lot of seemingly expensive ventures which should have left monstrous paper trails yet somehow didn't. That may be because the cutouts were hired hands. As they always were. Case in point, I always thought the SLN ships that were "lost" were smuggled through the hidden WH. And I maintain that most likely many more "lost" SLN ships fell prey to that WH as well. There is just no way I will believe the SLN could keep track of so many ships when corruption was so rampant.

We know the MAlign did finance some pirates. But they're not going to give the keys to the kingdom to those bozos. Even the dupes they got in the PNiE to attack the Congo System didn't know most of the reasons, nor that the wormhole that was known had any value. That's the kind of highly secretive information that must be kept compartmentalised. The naval ships that do go to Darius or Felix must have fail-safes to wipe the astrometric data of the system in case of capture too, but pirate ships won't have this much care about OpSec.

Especially when it's not their secret. If a pirate knew about the wormhole and/or location of Darius, they'd have shown up on Manticore's door and asked for a billion Manticoran dollar reward for it, and Manticore would have paid! (after verifying)

But, laundering goods and money is a common crime which is difficult to trace much less catch even on Earth today. In the HV I would imagine it is damn near foolproof, especially with hidden escape routes to hidden markets. All it would take is a corrupt port in a corrupt system as a temporary waypoint. Which are a dime a dozen. You can't fault poor systems for turning a blind eye when they are literally raking in the dough. And if these are MA patsies then it just gets better. Mesa was this same type patsy.

Well, kinda. I do wonder how we've never managed to crack down on arms sale to warlords and terrorists. But we don't lose nuclear subs and even if some WWII surplus destroyer went off the books, it couldn't be hidden once first used. The same applies in the HV: no SD goes off the books and lesser ships are known once they get used. Discovering the provenance and that the sale was corrupt is a different story.

At any rate, in both cases of the hidden WH, the WHs are presently far more valuable as stash houses than potential gold mines. After all, all the riches in the world are useless if you are dead.

For the MAlign I agree. For everyone else, it's the opposite, which is why it wouldn't have occurred to the owner of the largest Junction in the known Galaxy.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:It strikes me that anybody in the Honorverse trying to reverse engineer where coordination of a given set of activities is coming from faces enough challenges to make it nigh impossible. Even if you ruled out (even subconsciously) the possibility of faster hyper travel, not only do you have to consider the possibility that command has been delegated to a forward base but also the possibility that they've got access to at least one unknown wormhole.

Either of those two would distort any time/distance plots you'd try to put together so badly they're likely meaningless.

I agree. It mimicks what I said upstream. There are simply too many variables. Besides, in the HV, forward commands can be simple starships, not warships. It can be something as simple as an inconspicuous yacht, or it could have the super powers of diplomatic immunity in a Dispatch Boat. Even though the GA had no clue, they could be stealthed warships. Essentially an invisible forward mobile command in the same vein as Air Force One.

My original idea when creating this thread was that the forward command post would have been a completely ordinary import/export business front located in the service infrastructure around the wormhole junction. Shipments of various things, dispatches, and money all flowing through what appears to be a shipping business. With automatic nano based suicide the MAlign wouldn't have to worry about anything leaking if it ever got burned.