MAlignment and forward command

Why didn't it occur to anyone to suspect the MAlignment may have had a forward command post when they were discussing things like their potential involvement with the Webster assassination or the attempt on Berry?

As an immediate reaction, sure, it would make sense to discount such a possibility when Manticoran leaders were still considering Mesa in general and Manpower in particular to be no more than evil-but-conventional corporations. But as various people - Victor, Anton, Honor, etc. in turns - started considering "Manpower's" actions in terms of them being a hostile nation, why didn't it occur to anyone to consider that a belligerent nation bent on screwing with Manticore in covert ways might create a covert forward command authority to manage that screwing-with with far less time lag than trips to and from Mesa would entail? That same command lag issue is something they've all dealt with over the course of the entire war and they've addressed it by sending flag officers to the front with general instructions rather than detailed orders.

Why didn't anyone consider how a covert forward command post - likely located in either the Manticore or Sigma Draconis systems to minimize traffic and transit delays - would affect the length of the stimulus-response loop that "prevented" Mesa from being responsible for the second war? Or likewise orchestrating events in Talbot Sector. A "flag officer" on Meyer could have explained how Mesa could organize things they wouldn't have been able to otherwise.

Likely because David Weber knows they are a top down and tightly centrally controlled organization. So it didn’t occur to him to posit they were much more mission command oriented. But that is totally a guess.

Galactic Sapper wrote:Why didn't it occur to anyone to suspect the MAlignment may have had a forward command post when they were discussing things like their potential involvement with the Webster assassination or the attempt on Berry?

As an immediate reaction, sure, it would make sense to discount such a possibility when Manticoran leaders were still considering Mesa in general and Manpower in particular to be no more than evil-but-conventional corporations. But as various people - Victor, Anton, Honor, etc. in turns - started considering "Manpower's" actions in terms of them being a hostile nation, why didn't it occur to anyone to consider that a belligerent nation bent on screwing with Manticore in covert ways might create a covert forward command authority to manage that screwing-with with far less time lag than trips to and from Mesa would entail? That same command lag issue is something they've all dealt with over the course of the entire war and they've addressed it by sending flag officers to the front with general instructions rather than detailed orders.

Why didn't anyone consider how a covert forward command post - likely located in either the Manticore or Sigma Draconis systems to minimize traffic and transit delays - would affect the length of the stimulus-response loop that "prevented" Mesa from being responsible for the second war? Or likewise orchestrating events in Talbot Sector. A "flag officer" on Meyer could have explained how Mesa could organize things they wouldn't have been able to otherwise.

Damn that is an interesting question. What immediately comes to mind is Manticore's familiarity with "the norm," and their immediate concern. After Oyster Bay, Manticore was in a great depression internally. The entire planet was suffering from clinical depression. The intelligence agency thought it had let the Queen, the population, the navy, and an entire other species down. They weren't concerned with command posts. They could only see through the blood-red colored glasses of rage. Mingled with the Treecat's despair. And that made them think only of bases. Not command posts.

But the familiar made them discount Mesa because of the technology used. And Mesa had an excellent cover with a reputation of being involved only in "street level crimes." And remember, Manticore and ONI were kept fatally preoccupied by the Peeps.

Besides, there was still a missing element that even Mesa couldn't account for. A Streak Boat that probably went a long way in managing to taint any logical deductions coming out of ONI.

At any rate, even if Manticore had considered a forward command post early on, what could they have done? Command posts could be someone right under their noses.

Oh! And ONI trying to develop a criminal profile on the likes of the MAlignment had to be a tall order. Even now, with all they know, compared to the beginning.

After all, every intelligence agency still continues to miss the one main thing all of the victims involved have in common. Anyone?

cthia wrote:Damn that is an interesting question. What immediately comes to mind is Manticore's familiarity with "the norm," and their immediate concern. After Oyster Bay, Manticore was in a great depression internally. The entire planet was suffering from clinical depression. The intelligence agency thought it had let the Queen, the population, the navy, and an entire other species down. They weren't concerned with command posts. They could only see through the blood-red colored glasses of rage. Mingled with the Treecat's despair. And that made them think only of bases. Not command posts.

But the familiar made them discount Mesa because of the technology used. And Mesa had an excellent cover with a reputation of being involved only in "street level crimes." And remember, Manticore and ONI were kept fatally preoccupied by the Peeps.

Besides, there was still a missing element that even Mesa couldn't account for. A Streak Boat that probably went a long way in managing to taint any logical deductions coming out of ONI.

At any rate, even if Manticore had considered a forward command post early on, what could they have done? Command posts could be someone right under their noses.

Oh! And ONI trying to develop a criminal profile on the likes of the MAlignment had to be a tall order. Even now, with all they know, compared to the beginning.

After all, every intelligence agency still continues to miss the one main thing all of the victims involved have in common. Anyone?

This would have applied even before Oyster Bay, as the time issue was the primary reason Beth - and almost everyone else - assumed Haven MUST have been responsible for the Webster assassination and the attempt on Berry. Almost everyone discounted the possibility of Mesa being involved solely on the travel time factor and thus they had this massive strategic blind spot as a result.

While we - and they - eventually learn about the existence of streak drives, postulating a forward command post could have explained the available evidence without involving any sort of new technology at all. Just covert operations and movements, something Manpower has been doing for centuries.

As for what Manticore could have done about it, they could have pushed counterespionage attention and assets into looking at data leaking in other directions besides Haven. Ideally to find the forward command post, but in any case to force them to operate more cautiously. In the end I think narrative requirements would keep Manticore's spy hunters from finding them, but it would have been nice to have one or more of these bright people in Manticore (and Torch) at least float the idea at the highest level, even if the suggestion was never taken to an action stage.

But they did look and ended up going there - twice. The Mesa system was the Alignment's forward command post, with Darius being its true headquarters.

munroburton wrote:But they did look and ended up going there - twice. The Mesa system was the Alignment's forward command post, with Darius being its true headquarters.

No, the decision makers were all on Mesa. The planning was conducted on Mesa. Darius might now be the HQ, but only after everyone important on Mesa was either moved to Darius or killed.

kzt wrote:Likely because David Weber knows they are a top down and tightly centrally controlled organization. So it didn’t occur to him to posit they were much more mission command oriented. But that is totally a guess.

There's a reason why the streak-drive improved their command-chain latency, and that reason is as you suggest that MAlign is a top down organization controlled by the Detweilers.

Considering how it was described in the books, it seems every important mission step or decisions was relayed back to Detweiler via streak-drive. I think it's even mentioned by Zilwicki(?) in one of the books how odd the timing was for some MAlign agent/operation until they realized that everything needed clearance from somewhere else.

munroburton wrote:But they did look and ended up going there - twice. The Mesa system was the Alignment's forward command post, with Darius being its true headquarters.

And I'm sure the intelligence agencies did consider other possibilities, but nothing was forthcoming. Harrington did mention that the attacks did not bear the usual MO of the Havenites or Peeps. The use of a known Haven citizen to kill Ambassador Webster was way too obvious, and the technology used to strike at Queen Berry was not something the Havenites were known or expected to possess.

But the problem as I said is that there were no other, better alternatives. Who were they going to suspect? Who had anything to gain from a continued war? Until Zilwicki returned from Mesa, there was no reason to suspect that Manpower was anything beyond the corrupt transstellar involved in slavery. So Occam's Razor applied to everyone.

Even the folks at Torch hadn't known. They had a particular reason to be looking at Manpower, because of who they are and where they are located. If it were not for that, no one would have been the wiser. And even then they had to send someone to Mesa to get more information because they conclusions they were coming to simply did not make sense.

This is proven by the Havest Joy's transit. The approval for that was actually done by Queen Berry exactly before going into that audience where Operation Rat Poison occurred. They had absolutely no reason to suspect transiting the wormhole would be a death sentence. At best, they had contradictory information and might have posited that Manpower had explored but not published the information about the other end, so they could use for slave traffic, but no one could have conceived of a squadron of battlecruisers at action stations.

Galactic Sapper wrote:

cthia wrote:Damn that is an interesting question. What immediately comes to mind is Manticore's familiarity with "the norm," and their immediate concern. After Oyster Bay, Manticore was in a great depression internally. The entire planet was suffering from clinical depression. The intelligence agency thought it had let the Queen, the population, the navy, and an entire other species down. They weren't concerned with command posts. They could only see through the blood-red colored glasses of rage. Mingled with the Treecat's despair. And that made them think only of bases. Not command posts.

But the familiar made them discount Mesa because of the technology used. And Mesa had an excellent cover with a reputation of being involved only in "street level crimes." And remember, Manticore and ONI were kept fatally preoccupied by the Peeps.

Besides, there was still a missing element that even Mesa couldn't account for. A Streak Boat that probably went a long way in managing to taint any logical deductions coming out of ONI.

At any rate, even if Manticore had considered a forward command post early on, what could they have done? Command posts could be someone right under their noses.

Oh! And ONI trying to develop a criminal profile on the likes of the MAlignment had to be a tall order. Even now, with all they know, compared to the beginning.

After all, every intelligence agency still continues to miss the one main thing all of the victims involved have in common. Anyone?

This would have applied even before Oyster Bay, as the time issue was the primary reason Beth - and almost everyone else - assumed Haven MUST have been responsible for the Webster assassination and the attempt on Berry. Almost everyone discounted the possibility of Mesa being involved solely on the travel time factor and thus they had this massive strategic blind spot as a result.

While we - and they - eventually learn about the existence of streak drives, postulating a forward command post could have explained the available evidence without involving any sort of new technology at all. Just covert operations and movements, something Manpower has been doing for centuries.

As for what Manticore could have done about it, they could have pushed counterespionage attention and assets into looking at data leaking in other directions besides Haven. Ideally to find the forward command post, but in any case to force them to operate more cautiously. In the end I think narrative requirements would keep Manticore's spy hunters from finding them, but it would have been nice to have one or more of these bright people in Manticore (and Torch) at least float the idea at the highest level, even if the suggestion was never taken to an action stage.

But only after OB was it glaringly obvious that it was NOT Haven. And again, the color of rage only made Manticore think of bases, planets, where they could send a squadron or two. Mesa was the perfect place to hide in plain sight. It certainly didn't warrant a squadron at the time.


Criminal Profile:

BTW, the one thing all of the victims have in common is support for the Beowulf Code. In no way is it obvious, and the SL as a victim skews the data since they have unscrupulous elements that patronized slavery. So the fact was well hidden in the data. But, wading through the mire is the job of the best psychological profilers.

But again, compiling a psyche profile for the likes of the MA should be a copper-plated Cordelia Ransom. But, the HV should have the use of extremely capable AIs. There was an abundance of crimes of passion. OB was a crime of passion. And the attempted assassination of Queen Berry was a key nugget.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:snips

And I'm sure the intelligence agencies did consider other possibilities, but nothing was forthcoming. Harrington did mention that the attacks did not bear the usual MO of the Havenites or Peeps. The use of a known Haven citizen to kill Ambassador Webster was way too obvious, and the technology used to strike at Queen Berry was not something the Havenites were known or expected to possess.

But the problem as I said is that there were no other, better alternatives. Who were they going to suspect? Who had anything to gain from a continued war? Until Zilwicki returned from Mesa, there was no reason to suspect that Manpower was anything beyond the corrupt transstellar involved in slavery. So Occam's Razor applied to everyone.

Even the folks at Torch hadn't known. They had a particular reason to be looking at Manpower, because of who they are and where they are located. If it were not for that, no one would have been the wiser. And even then they had to send someone to Mesa to get more information because they conclusions they were coming to simply did not make sense.

Indeed! When a murder occurs in a family, family members become natural suspects. OB was responsible for the murder of many family members. So naturally, family is suspected first. In this case it is the "family of natural enemies." The normal suspects simply have to be ruled out first. They are the closest to the crime, statistically. It is the age-old childish prank. If you are standing third in a line of students and you reach around and smack the back of the head of the person standing first in line, who is he naturally going to suspect when he turns around? That is why the MA chose this tactic. It is older than Methuselah and as effective as penicillin. How can you suspect someone who doesn't exist? And how can you suspect someone of committing a crime with advanced weaponry who can't possibly have access to such advanced weaponry? And, what motive would Mesa or Manpower have to commit such an atrocity?

An easy and effective prank that even children can pull off would have been child's play for Alphas. And it was.

Do forgive the double post.