The Strategy of Castling

cthia wrote:I'm not saying that I think the RMN would have needed to then, but if Eloise hadn't made the decision to take matters into her own hands by offering to form an alliance -- and also offering the RMN the chance to save those godawful missiles for Solarian fools instead, and had the RMN been truly fatally hurting for missiles, on top of simultaneously fighting a war on two fronts with two different enemies -- well, what other choice would they have had other than a serious repositioning of forces? It doesn't make sense to me to project a huge representation of your force at a great distance to support the henhouse, when the Palace is in danger of being overrun.

As Jonathan said above, the war with Haven was over. The only question was whether Haven wanted to get its SD(P)s destroyed in the process or not. Oyster Bay at that point could have allowed Haven to throw the dice again and attempt a second time to conquer Manticore, but Theisman wasn't stupid.

So your scenario requires that Haven stupidly throw another 400 SD(P)s at Manticore defences, which does smash them but also does deplete the stock of Apollo missiles. At that point, the SLN is coming. What does Manticore do? Is this it?

When I say fatally hurting for missiles, I'm talking about a MBS who is so much of a barenaked lady that she has to steal missiles from Forts to pay Solarians. And remember, she has to pay the Peeps on another front.

Ok, so if Manticore is hurting for missiles, what are the forts going to fire when Filareta comes to visit? Spitballs? Bad grammar?

Manticore had plenty of dumb MDMs (earlier Mk23 versions). The forts could fire those at Filareta, but Manticore didn't need the forts to do that. They had sufficient ships. In fact, the force that fired and controlled the missile swarm that did defeat Filareta was a fleet of ships of mostly RMN and GSN origin. And they fired non-Apollo MDMs.

The forts might have been necessary if the RMN fleet had been destroyed defending against a second RHN invasion. But still, the RMN still had fixed defences in Manticore. And by the time Oyster Bay happened, the biggest portion of the Python Lump had just launched, so a scenario where the fleet was destroyed but Manticore wasn't defeated means by the time Filareta comes, there are ships again.

I often wonder. If you were Theisman and Eloise decided to attack Manticore instead, how exactly would you have handled the RMN's precarious situation? Would you have attacked the MBS at the same time as the Sols? To ensure their defeat? Assuming of course, a serious depletion of RMN missiles.

Did the RMN have time to recall Michelle before the second BoM? Were there other outstanding Fleets in the middle of tour duty that could have been recalled? My memory.

At this point, the RHN does know the SLN stands no chance to win against Manticore. So attacking later means nothing: the 427 SDs that Filareta was bringing were going to be swatted out of the sky either way. So attacking after him would make no difference.

Attacking at the same time could maybe use Filareta as a distraction.

But the scenario just isn't plausible:

First, Eloise and Theisman wouldn't have known about the SLN attack unless they had allied with Manticore in the first place. The leak about the attack came to Manticore.

Second, the missiles fired at Filareta (see above) were not the Apollo ones. So the SLN attack makes no difference in Manticore's ability to defend from or prosecute a war against Haven.

Third, depleting Manticore's Apollo stock would have long-term consequences. If Haven wins (and that must be their objective), now they are left holding the system with no Apollo, but the SLN would still be coming. So they're now on the hook to defend, with a depleted missile stock. If they lose but Manticore survives against the SLN (which it would have), then Haven would be in a poor position because Manticore would blame Havene for its worsened situation. And if Manticore loses, then Haven has the SL for a neighbour, still without discovering who was behind Oyster Bay and was fielding spider- and streak-drive ships.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
(Snip)

As Jonathan said above, the war with Haven was over. The only question was whether Haven wanted to get its SD(P)s destroyed in the process or not. Oyster Bay at that point could have allowed Haven to throw the dice again and attempt a second time to conquer Manticore, but Theisman wasn't stupid.

So your scenario requires that Haven stupidly throw another 400 SD(P)s at Manticore defences, which does smash them but also does deplete the stock of Apollo missiles. At that point, the SLN is coming. What does Manticore do? Is this it?

(Snip!)

First, Eloise and Theisman wouldn't have known about the SLN attack unless they had allied with Manticore in the first place. The leak about the attack came to Manticore.

(Snip)

I am fairly certain that Eliose was informed as well, see chapter 37 of _Mission of Honor_: “why in the world would somebody in Beowulf suddenly drop this kind of information on us of all people?” ... “That the Sollies are stupid enough to reach back into the sausage machine and go after Manticore again?”

I will admit that there is no explicit mention of Filareta and hundreds of Battlefleet superdreadnoughts, but what else could the discussion be about?

Robert_A_Woodward wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
(Snip)

As Jonathan said above, the war with Haven was over. The only question was whether Haven wanted to get its SD(P)s destroyed in the process or not. Oyster Bay at that point could have allowed Haven to throw the dice again and attempt a second time to conquer Manticore, but Theisman wasn't stupid.

So your scenario requires that Haven stupidly throw another 400 SD(P)s at Manticore defences, which does smash them but also does deplete the stock of Apollo missiles. At that point, the SLN is coming. What does Manticore do? Is this it?

(Snip!)

First, Eloise and Theisman wouldn't have known about the SLN attack unless they had allied with Manticore in the first place. The leak about the attack came to Manticore.

(Snip)

I am fairly certain that Eliose was informed as well, see chapter 37 of _Mission of Honor_: “why in the world would somebody in Beowulf suddenly drop this kind of information on us of all people?” ... “That the Sollies are stupid enough to reach back into the sausage machine and go after Manticore again?”

I will admit that there is no explicit mention of Filareta and hundreds of Battlefleet superdreadnoughts, but what else could the discussion be about?

I was quite sure Eloise knew as well. As a matter of fact, I seem to recall the scene where she sort of slipped the knowledge in on Beth that she knew. Tactful diplomacy, because the knowledge that you are about to be attacked by an 800 lb. gorilla isn't something you would share with your enemy. It is the main thing that made Eloise think her offer of an Alliance would appeal to Beth. The stubborn, pig-headed stuff and mount your grievances on a wall, Beth.

At any rate, another thrust to the heart of the MBS wasn't Theisman's only option. He could have gone after a lot of key peripheral systems, forcing the Alliance to redeploy and seriously weaken their ability to defend against the SLN with a limited supply of missiles.

Now that I think about it, castling -- recalling the well positioned Rooks -- isn't such a far-fetched chess tactic to consider using in the MBS. Certainly not if we consider the MBS's strategy and tactic long ago of using the King as a formidable opponent in the theatre of war. My formidable niece calls it swashbuckling on the battlefield. I always cringe at her war cry, "It's time to go swashbuckling!" Even though I started it, she has learned to finish it with reckless abandon.

Albeit, I always thought it was reckless of the RMN to allow the King on the battlefield.