To End in Fire

Jonathan_S wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I still disagree. The navies in the Haven Sector police themselves: between the RMN, GSN, RHN and IAN, they all can keep each other in check. Just think that three years ago, three of those four were allied against the fourth. Sure it would be nice to add more checks-and-balances, but it's not out of balance right now.

The enforcement for the Edict does not have to come from the SLN. It's their Edict and they ought to enforce it, I agree. But so long as someone does it, everyone else can just sit and watch.

Again, not saying that being able to enforce against everyone shouldn't be their goal. They may want that. I just think that if the Harrington Plan works, they won't be able to because the Union and Allied navies will outnumber the SL 2.0's Navy.

Also note that until the SLN it allowed out of their territory again (since right now Honor declared that any of their ships found outside their bounds will be treated as pirates) they're not really in a position to go enforce the Edict against most of humanity. (At least not without first seeking permission from the GA for the expedition, which would probably entail at minimum a GA task group coming along to keep an eye on them).


Though after the tech and naval imbalance starts correcting itself (which seems at least 5-10 years off) if that 'treat as pirates' policy hasn't been removed that sending a large force to handle and Edict violation might be a nice way to force the GA's hand.
It'd look pretty bad for the GA to be seen to smack down a fleet that was only attempting to regress a crime against humanity.

The problem is Edict violations are pretty rare, so there likely wouldn't be one when it would be realpolitik convenient for you.

Just how long do you think the SL will tolerate being told to "go to your room and stay?"

ThinksMarkedly, you are proposing that the SL will accept criminals policing themselves? Zilwicki made Manticore look awfully bad in the eyes of the SL. Compounded with a lie about some hidden entity - simply to validate their crap
- that nobody has seen. That will surely sit well with the League.

cthia wrote:ThinksMarkedly, you are proposing that the SL will accept criminals policing themselves? Zilwicki made Manticore look awfully bad in the eyes of the SL. Compounded with a lie about some hidden entity - simply to validate their crap
- that nobody has seen. That will surely sit well with the League.

No, I'm saying the SL will have to accept the victors in the war it lost to police themselves. No one is saying that criminals will do anything beyond being criminals.

The SL doesn't have a choice. It lost a war and surrendered to terms. There's no dispute as to whether it lost to criminals or not: in war, there is no such thing. At best, the Deneb Convention could say something, but no one is alleging violations of that.

The first rule of space warfare is: don't start a fight you can't win. The SL did and lost. Now it has to accept the consequences and be heartily glad the GA isn't enforcing an only-self-defence-military condition like was imposed on Germany and Japan after WW2.

cthia wrote:Just how long do you think the SL will tolerate being told to "go to your room and stay?"

I doubt the SL will be in a position to start trying to force that issue in less than 15 years.

Though there's a reasonable chance that if the GA gains sufficient trust in the new government of the League that they might unilaterally relax or remove the 'treat as pirates' order sooner than that. And the SL can work on it diplomatically sooner.

But in terms of having a big enough stick to force the GA to drop that, before the GA is comfortable doing so, I think we're looking at at least 15 years to do the R&D needed to design modern warships and systems, the investment to make whatever yard changes are needed to build them, and then the building time to lay down and complete enough modern ships[1] that they can convince the GA that caving that that demand is better than risking another war


[1] And probably the time to expand their military yards; and train additional yard workers in the specialized work that only applies to warships.

The SL and the SLN are going to have their hands full dealing with their own existing problems and working out arrangements with it's former members and independents. It's not that the watchdog doesn't have teeth anymore, it's that the rules have changed and the dog has to behave.

The SL, or rather the reduce SL.2 and all of the systems who are no longer under OFS "management" and OFS client status plus the independents who basically depend on the League to provide general security because the SLN effectively provied commerce and other protection to anything within the greater footprint of systems that were League Members. That blanket has been ripped off so now there are a lot of places that are going to provide their own protection and local enforcement of their own laws.
Remember that one benefit of the League was to contain (forcibly if needed but mostly "diplomatically" by brandishing the SLN as a stick) disputes between Members from getting violent and the more overt acts of intimidation by systems of others within the SL's area of influence- unless it benefited OFS and it's friends of course.

There were already trading partners networks like Beowulf's of either its daughter systems or just straight economic treaty relationship sets that connected systems within and without the League. To great extent, that is what is going to be renegotiated over the next 10 to 20 years as things evolve based on the new realities. Mannheim and the RF is what the Alignment looked to use as the consolation and focal point of it's conversion of systems to The Plan over the long term. But you also had places like Beowulf who would have -in all probability- retained the majority of it's existing economic treaty and trade partners and it had a SDF to do commerce protection etc with them. Yes, we saw at least a small fracture in the Beowulf group when things got nasty at the meeting where Beowulf announced it was leaving the League, but things were going to change anyway.
We don't -yet- have the final details of the Kingsford Agreement so we don't know what is actually permissible under the GA Edict for the SL 2.0 and the SLN in terms of potential treaty agreements. And there will have to be at least minimal conversation and treaty or agreement relations between so many Systems, groups of systems (existing or new) and the League 2.0. Trade, diplomatic relations (direct or though others) banking laws, Medical & Health, Patent, and so forth. Will the SLN be allowed to provide naval and commerce support under formal TREATY arrangements with any system leaving or not earlier in the general SL relations prior to the GA Edict? How many of the League Systems had their own currency prior to this challenge. So many questions

kzt wrote:The SLs current build rate for SDs was basically the minimum for industrial base preservation. The didn’t think the needed more SDs but if you shut down all the yards it is very painful, expensive and time consuming to reopen.

So they can certainly build more than they do without a lot of effort or massive capital investment. But likely some staff, which probably has a several year training cycle before they are fully capable employees. Plus there are long lead-time items that have to be ordered.

So 40 per year in say two years without major investments, building ships that are within the capabilities of the industrial infrastructure of the yards.

If you want more than that it will likely require significant capital investment. But it is possible that building modern ships will require significant capital investment. Which could also be used to upgrade the yards building FF BCs.

So I’m not at all certain that they won’t build at quite a bit higher rate one things get rolling. Having a new core of low thousands of SDs in ten-fifteen years.

How many SD/ BC/CA/CL/DD willl the GA allow the SL to build for SLN 2.0? How many of the survivors of SLN 1.0 will they be allowed to retain? I can't see Honor (and Elizabeth, Benjamin, Eloise and the Andermani allowing the SLN to retain its current size and type distribution. How many and of what types will the SLN want to retain, vs. how many can they afford to maintain in service and in reserve? I suspect most of Battle Fleet is going to the breakers, starting with the reserve. Will the GA allow the SLN to trade older ships on active duty for newer ships in the reserve on the breakers list? Without a requirement to bully the Verge and Fringe for OFS, I expect that Frontier Fleet is going to have a 25% or greater reduction, as well. Will Technodyne receive a visit from Grand Fleet?

Only RFC knows for sure.

It occurs to me that the SL faces another economic problem:

Their model has been based on exploitation and that exploitation suddenly ended. How big a hole did that punch in their economy?

Loren Pechtel wrote:It occurs to me that the SL faces another economic problem:

Their model has been based on exploitation and that exploitation suddenly ended. How big a hole did that punch in their economy?

I think you're completely right in the conclusion, but not necessarily on the causes. The SL was big enough and the Core worlds settled for incredibly long enough that exploitation wasn't the main source of revenue or economic drive. I'd suspect that accounted for single-digit percentage of the economy and those were definitely not the most valuable goods (in the sense of biggest added value).

Instead, I think the Operation Buccaneer on worlds they traded with, the secession of several key members who will now impose tariffs, import duties, and give preference to local industry, plus the lack of shipping during the war will instead be the main causes.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I think you're completely right in the conclusion, but not necessarily on the causes. The SL was big enough and the Core worlds settled for incredibly long enough that exploitation wasn't the main source of revenue or economic drive. I'd suspect that accounted for single-digit percentage of the economy and those were definitely not the most valuable goods (in the sense of biggest added value).

Instead, I think the Operation Buccaneer on worlds they traded with, the secession of several key members who will now impose tariffs, import duties, and give preference to local industry, plus the lack of shipping during the war will instead be the main causes.

Agreed. The resources extractable in the systems OFS and certain Transtellars were exploiting simply couldn't have been large enough to form a significant portion of the League's internal economy.
I've no doubt getting cut off from that will be a significant, possibly even mortal, blow to a few of those Transtellars. But on the scale of something the size of the League it can survive a few businesses, even large ones, having a really bad time.

The sheer concentrated economic power concentrated within the League Core Worlds, largely driven from internal or trade amongst themselves, dwarfs whatever you could squeeze out of 3rd world systems. But consequently I think you're also right that the infrastructure destruction visited on some of those Core worlds; and the likely Balkanization of trade in the aftermath of the war with the GA due to the actions of the (old) League are going to be far larger impacts on the overall League economy.
Beowulf alone leaving the League probably impacts the League's economy more than the loss of many dozens of exploited verge systems.

The loss of income from exploiting the protectorates might only represent some single digit percentage of SL GDP, but the loss of assets will be much higher. The vast majority of protectorate will nationalize all solarian assets. Corporate orbital stations, resource extraction facilities, developed corporate and OFS real estate and cash. These losses are between 5-10 times larger that what that activity had contributed to SL GDP. Assuming a return on those assets of 20% annually. So activity that generates 1%-2% of the SL GDP could result in a loss of 6%-12% decline in the SL GDP after UH when those capital losses are recorded. That is a big hit to SL GDP on top of the lost trade between member systems due to Lacoon I & II.

Since those lost assets were also potential collateral for loans, there are fewer options available to help SL corporations recover. All in all, SL 2.0 GDP growth will be depressed for quite some time.

Loren Pechtel wrote:It occurs to me that the SL faces another economic problem:

Their model has been based on exploitation and that exploitation suddenly ended. How big a hole did that punch in their economy?

Considering the size of the Solarian League proper, I suspect that the exploitation of the Protectorates is a rounding error in the Solarian League economy. It is the Solarian League government whose revenue stream was dependent on the exploitation of the Protectorates.