To End in Fire

kzt wrote:The SLs current build rate for SDs was basically the minimum for industrial base preservation. The didn’t think the needed more SDs but if you shut down all the yards it is very painful, expensive and time consuming to reopen.

So they can certainly build more than they do without a lot of effort or massive capital investment. But likely some staff, which probably has a several year training cycle before they are fully capable employees. Plus there are long lead-time items that have to be ordered.

So 40 per year in say two years without major investments, building ships that are within the capabilities of the industrial infrastructure of the yards.

If you want more than that it will likely require significant capital investment. But it is possible that building modern ships will require significant capital investment. Which could also be used to upgrade the yards building FF BCs.

So I’m not at all certain that they won’t build at quite a bit higher rate one things get rolling. Having a new core of low thousands of SDs in ten-fifteen years.

Exactly, kzt! The SLs build-rate has been idling for decades! Or even longer! I doubt that they ever hit their maximum build-rate. I wouldn't be surprised if at no time in their history did they ever hit their stride. Which other navy at what point in time could have managed to antagonize and motivate them to ever do so? At no point has the SL ever been sobered by war and faced with their own mortality. War has a way of sobering you and focusing your thoughts, and efforts.

I agree that Honor sobered them.

No ThinksMarkedly, the SL cannot enforce the edict. Oh, they can enforce it against other third-rate navies, but they don't have to worry about them. The sheer size of the SL and it's industrial might has been a deterrence enough for them. It was enough of a deterrence for the Haven sector for quite some time as well. LOL

But the SL cannot presently enforce the Edict against anyone in the Haven sector. A sector which the SL already feels has committed a violation. The SL cannot enforce the Edict against those who presently matter.

I'm afraid the galaxy is going to find out first hand exactly what it means to Awaken a sleeping giant.

Even if the SL in particular and many of independent systems in the general footprint previously controlled by the SL via SLN (and OFS) started building merchant shipping right after Lacoon I was implimented, it is going to take probably a couple of years to get the first production out of the years and into trials. And that is with off the shelf plans of existing designs with whatever "adjustments" will have to be made for both availability of things like engines/sensors/materials handling/ enviornmental systems AND changes if you have to use something of a newer designed system or "improvements" in parts.

Remember that at the same time Lacoon I (and then II) went into effect the SLN was scrambling to acquire transport and we saw three of the mega merchant transports taken up from the FUFTs program so a lot of stuff is presently in Navy hands or -beyollnd those several ships blasted using GhostRider Drones to ram them- a bunch may have been in the Sol system when Harrington arrived and required Kingston to scuttle his military ships (and the TUFT ships in active service do qualify)

Your still looking at Manticore having the capasity to jump back into the trade area the MMM was withdrawn from under Lacoon I before any non SEM merchant shipping that started building after Lacoon I took effect can be put in service.
I will qualify that by saying that I am guessing Harrington would have made it crystal clear in formal diplomatic terms as part of the Kingsford Agreements that NOBODY was to interfere or fine or impound or anything else and MMM ship called home under Lacoon. I now defer to RFC to address that (in passing if not in detail) in the next book. I am also sure that there will be problems for MMM ships anyway and RMN and possbibly the GA will have to "explain" things to the offending systems etc.

At the moment, the SLN still has a lot of warships though truly only those at the BC and smaller levels are much use for anything other than doing something blatant like hanging an SLN SD just outside a planetary orbit in a particularly abusive system and doing a lot of looming like the sword of Damocles over the people creating problems....like sending a light raider over to a nighboring system and grabbing a freighter.
Again, the problem for SL/ SLN. 2.0 is what do you want to build now when you know your existing new designs are not particularly usefull against GA ships (or Erwhon or The Maya Autonomous Sector or the Andermani)

Sure, trade routes and probably customers are going to be scrambled for a couple of years but at least initially there will be pent up stocks of merchandise and equipment needing to be shipped and untill people can fined, or even look for, new sources of whatever they want or markets for what they produce, they will still need to move what's on hand. The military will initially be running up against existing civilian construction and many of the smarter politicians and military will see that letting existing shipyards run up their capasity using civilian ships to keep the money and profits moving without government intervention, is a good idea. Once you start getting even proof-of-concept designs for new SLN warships, you can dole those contracts out as is prudent and see what happens.
In the meantime, Manticore (and Grayson) isn't going to be manufacturing a lot for export for a while but that also means that they will be out hauling stuff around elsewhere. Working merchant marine (particularly if it means using the Junction) means income for both Manticorian civilians and the government (in fees and taxes for govt.)

kzt wrote:The SLs current build rate for SDs was basically the minimum for industrial base preservation. The didn’t think the needed more SDs but if you shut down all the yards it is very painful, expensive and time consuming to reopen.

I agree with the second sentence but not entirely with the first. Yes, if you have no military yards, opening some is going to be difficult. So if you have some, replicating what you have is doable since you have the technology and knowledge.

But I don't think the minimum was for industrial preservation. First, it wasn't only for that, since they needed to build ships any way. As slow as technology progress had sunk, it wasn't stalled. So they still needed newer, bigger and better ships. That requires some ship yards. Second, because while it might preserve the know-how, I disagree that it preserves the industry itself. There's no such thing as long-term idle industry: either it's rusting and rotting, not ready for use, or it's in use for something else. The only exception I'd give that are strategic reserves controlled by the military, but anyone here thinks the SLN thought they needed some?

And since we've seen that the SL civilian shipbuilding was already constrained, I don't think there's any ready-to-convert shipyards either.

So they can certainly build more than they do without a lot of effort or massive capital investment. But likely some staff, which probably has a several year training cycle before they are fully capable employees. Plus there are long lead-time items that have to be ordered.

So 40 per year in say two years without major investments, building ships that are within the capabilities of the industrial infrastructure of the yards.

If you want more than that it will likely require significant capital investment. But it is possible that building modern ships will require significant capital investment. Which could also be used to upgrade the yards building FF BCs.

So I’m not at all certain that they won’t build at quite a bit higher rate one things get rolling. Having a new core of low thousands of SDs in ten-fifteen years.

I don't agree if you mean SD(P)s. If you meant SDs, which they won't be building, then shmaybe.

jtg452 wrote:The second Iraqi invasion, for example, was built on what 'everybody knew' Sadaam (who, no doubt, needed killin' on general principles) was doing with chemical and biological weapons. Every major intelligence service was duped.

Too bad it was all an Iraqi disinformation campaign (another example of Sadaam's penchant for sabre rattling and intimidation) that worked a little too well for their own good.

Disagree. It was disinformation, but it wasn't sabre rattling. Rather, it was a bunch of underlings who didn't want to report failure--they were lying to Saddam, we intercepted the communications. You have inspectors who can't find WMD and you have reports to Saddam about WMD kept away from the inspectors. What's the logical conclusion?

(We also made the same mistake in estimating the Russian economy--not realizing that the reports we were intercepting were internal deception.)

cthia wrote:Exactly, kzt! The SLs build-rate has been idling for decades! Or even longer! I doubt that they ever hit their maximum build-rate. I wouldn't be surprised if at no time in their history did they ever hit their stride. Which other navy at what point in time could have managed to antagonize and motivate them to ever do so? At no point has the SL ever been sobered by war and faced with their own mortality. War has a way of sobering you and focusing your thoughts, and efforts.

In my view, the potential shipbuilding rate is completely irrelevant. Potentially they could do a lot more if everything went right and in an ideal world. That isn't the case. There are other constraints and everything will not go right.

And whatever that potential was, at least a quarter and maybe as much as half walked away from the League or went down in flames during the Battle of Sol.

No ThinksMarkedly, the SL cannot enforce the edict. Oh, they can enforce it against other third-rate navies, but they don't have to worry about them. The sheer size of the SL and it's industrial might has been a deterrence enough for them. It was enough of a deterrence for the Haven sector for quite some time as well. LOL

Uh... I think it's the exact opposite! It's against those third-rate navies that may be controlled by warlords or "Presidents for Life" that need a good clubbing over their heads to ensure they stay within civilised warfare. Industrial might does not deter anyone. Hypatia has a lot of industry and so did Cachalot. Did anyone fear them? Did that deter battlecruiser squadrons that tried to or succeeded in performing Edict Violations?

But the SL cannot presently enforce the Edict against anyone in the Haven sector. A sector which the SL already feels has committed a violation. The SL cannot enforce the Edict against those who presently matter.

I'm afraid the galaxy is going to find out first hand exactly what it means to Awaken a sleeping giant.

I still disagree. The navies in the Haven Sector police themselves: between the RMN, GSN, RHN and IAN, they all can keep each other in check. Just think that three years ago, three of those four were allied against the fourth. Sure it would be nice to add more checks-and-balances, but it's not out of balance right now.

The enforcement for the Edict does not have to come from the SLN. It's their Edict and they ought to enforce it, I agree. But so long as someone does it, everyone else can just sit and watch.

Again, not saying that being able to enforce against everyone shouldn't be their goal. They may want that. I just think that if the Harrington Plan works, they won't be able to because the Union and Allied navies will outnumber the SL 2.0's Navy.

jtg452 wrote:On of the most noticeable things about the whole Solarian War plot line was that the GA never really lost and the Sollies never got a chance to get any of their tech to study and reverse engineer like the Havenites have been doing for decades. I never found that really plausible.

No ships were lost in systems that the Sollies maintained control of after the battle so there couldn't be any forensic analysis by the tech geeks.

Even where the Sollies gained a tactical victory and destroyed all but one of the Manty ships, it was a strategic defeat since their taskforce withdrew when that sole survivor started sniping at long range.

The GA can outrun the Sollies--and thus in almost all cases can choose to disengage if they are at a disadvantage. It's not surprising that they didn't lose very often. Realistically, a Solly victory can only come about when the GA has to defend something--and the GA wasn't even trying to attack GA systems.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Theemile wrote:Honor already laid the GA terms to Sol & the SL in UH, and as of the end of UH, the SL was complying. Yildune was not a part of any GA terms at that time. I would think the GA is done... unless the SL wants to push their luck.

Yildun is not part of the League. It's not even an inhabited system, aside from the Technodyne sites, so it may not even have a government per se[*]. So the terms to the League couldn't be that Yildun should be transferred over, because it's not possible to make that demand.

Even demanding an embargo would be unreasonable. Not forever, anyway. There needs to be a set of goals that, once reached, the embargo gets lifted.

Demanding transparency on SL's dealings with its arms vendors, yes, that could be in the fine print accompanying the disbanding of the OFS and their "losing" of FF ships to warlords.

I actually see a good reason for the GA to come calling at Yildun, but in a semi-peaceful way: "It looks like you have connections to our hidden enemy. We realize you probably don't know about them, but we're going through the records anyway to see if we can find pointers to where they are."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:But I don't think the minimum was for industrial preservation. First, it wasn't only for that, since they needed to build ships any way. As slow as technology progress had sunk, it wasn't stalled. So they still needed newer, bigger and better ships. That requires some ship yards. Second, because while it might preserve the know-how, I disagree that it preserves the industry itself.

We've spent >$50 billion and 16 years trying to build a less capable imitation of the Saturn V, which is 60 year old technology. Last I knew we were over five years late and over $15 billion over budget on just the SLS.

Although, unlike anything from Blue Origin, they actually have gotten something into orbit (The Orion test in 2014).

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:But I don't think the minimum was for industrial preservation. First, it wasn't only for that, since they needed to build ships any way. As slow as technology progress had sunk, it wasn't stalled. So they still needed newer, bigger and better ships. That requires some ship yards. Second, because while it might preserve the know-how, I disagree that it preserves the industry itself.

We've spent >$50 billion and 16 years trying to build a less capable imitation of the Saturn V, which is 60 year old technology. Last I knew we were over five years late and over $15 billion over budget on just the SLS.

Although, unlike anything from Blue Origin, they actually have gotten something into orbit (The Orion test in 2014).

Preserves industry - another kzt (IIRC) post from the past detailed the story of FOGHAT - an aerogel used in nuclear weapons. We stopped production for just over decade and lost the ability to produce this critical material and had to develop it afreash, at the the cost of 5+ years of research and billions of dollars. This isn't an example from the deep past - this happened in the Internet age, while the majority of us were focused on our careers.

Or look at the F-22 production Line - supposedly carefully packed up and stored for later use. No, parts are missing and it's estimated that it will take >12 Billion dollars to restart the line. Custom made computer chips and multiple parts from suppliers are no longer in production. Congress' perlidiction for spreading around the production allowed thousands of weakness in the supply chain as producers who only built their handful of parts quickly moved on to other projects or closed shop completely. Now the USAF is looking to retire the F-22 completely as soon as it has enough NGAD fighters built to replace them (announced yesterday).

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I still disagree. The navies in the Haven Sector police themselves: between the RMN, GSN, RHN and IAN, they all can keep each other in check. Just think that three years ago, three of those four were allied against the fourth. Sure it would be nice to add more checks-and-balances, but it's not out of balance right now.

The enforcement for the Edict does not have to come from the SLN. It's their Edict and they ought to enforce it, I agree. But so long as someone does it, everyone else can just sit and watch.

Again, not saying that being able to enforce against everyone shouldn't be their goal. They may want that. I just think that if the Harrington Plan works, they won't be able to because the Union and Allied navies will outnumber the SL 2.0's Navy.

Also note that until the SLN it allowed out of their territory again (since right now Honor declared that any of their ships found outside their bounds will be treated as pirates) they're not really in a position to go enforce the Edict against most of humanity. (At least not without first seeking permission from the GA for the expedition, which would probably entail at minimum a GA task group coming along to keep an eye on them).


Though after the tech and naval imbalance starts correcting itself (which seems at least 5-10 years off) if that 'treat as pirates' policy hasn't been removed that sending a large force to handle and Edict violation might be a nice way to force the GA's hand.
It'd look pretty bad for the GA to be seen to smack down a fleet that was only attempting to regress a crime against humanity.

The problem is Edict violations are pretty rare, so there likely wouldn't be one when it would be realpolitik convenient for you.