Wormhole Assault: MA Style

cthia wrote:Again. I wouldn't pull the trigger on this plan until the very last minute, or until needed. I would simply let the Spider sit in its perfect little nest until its intended victims transit. By the time the cavalry starts arriving from Trevor's Star and beyond, that means the shit has already hit the fan and the cavalry is needed quickly, like Eighth Fleet.

If the single LD can delay or destroy arriving reinforcements - especially if an attack on Trevor's Star pulls Eighth Fleet out of position - then a single LD riding the back of the WH like a bucking bull just long enough to delay or destroy reinforcements, may be long enough. It will take time to localize the LD then engage it. The GA could elect to waste enormous amounts of missiles if it likes. I'm sure the MA will love that. And energy fire may be a no no for certain forts, if WH infrastructure is in its line of fire. I can't imagine that energy fire is accustomed to being blind fired in the direction of their own infrastructure hoping to hit an invisible Spider in a nest.

You're jumping the gun here. You're saying that "handwave handwave handwave chaos is burning, forts are no more", the LD sitting at the exit lanes from Trevor's star can impede reinforcements from coming.

It could do that, yes, under those conditions!

But I want to hear what that handwave was. I'm not sold on the conditions in the first place. How did the MAN manage to get all forts and other defenders destroyed without their forces detected and destroyed first? Remember that there are 100 LACs, a squadron or two of CAs or BCs at the Junction, and at least half a dozen forts with their bubble walls up, with an unknown number of sensor platforms all over the place since there are probably 1000 ships in the same cubic light-second of space.

At any rate, this is a trap that will be sprung by Eighth Fleet! It is essentially Tourville waiting in hyper for Eighth Fleet to transit springing the trap. It will be different this time because the LD can sit forever. After the LDs objective is accomplished, it won't matter if it is destroyed.

A destroyed LD is a significant loss of investment. Such a ship must take at least 4 years to build, assuming the MAN is actually quite competent. I doubt the MAN can have more than 20 of those in the next decade, so if they can throw away one, how long has it been?

And note that a destroyed LD in enemy space means there'll be debris for the enemy to collect and analyse. That means the MAN must include in the cost the loss of the secret of the spider drive and their stealth tech.

With that in mind, is this a worthwhile trade? Is this engagement part of one that surely wins the entire war? If so, lay it out for us, please.

This is an Eighth Fleet killer! Now, Eighth Fleet may never leave the system since it is now Home Fleet. But if it can be pulled out of position with a massive attack on Trevor's Star then the door can be shut behind them.

No, it isn't. Eighth Fleet or any other fleet is not going to transit a wormhole that is held by hostiles. Normal WH communication will let all the other termini know within five minutes of the engagement starting that something is happening. Even the SLN was smart enough to send destroyers first to scout the other side of the wormhole before beginning to transit, during the Battle of Ajay-Prime. They just weren't smart enough to keep a two-way communication in the process...

This can keep Eighth Fleet away, unable to respond. But it can't by itself kill the fleet.

I agree there. The owners will always have the most detailed maps of their own real estate. Most of the time. But will those maps or the people who have knowledge of the minute details be on hand? And will it be fresh in their mind, or will they need time to refresh their memory. Time.

BTW, a Spider could be lurking in nests in several junctions, including Trevor's Star. Destroying any arriving or transiting fleet.

I'll give you that the Use of Map For Purpose Not Intended is a curve ball. The Manticorans will have the best and most up-to-date maps, but they will not have thought of ways to exploit it the same way the devious minds at the MAlign might have. Though after holding the Junction at ready state for 30 years between 1884 and 1914, the chance that it might have occurred to someone is pretty high.

Anyway, you can solve this problem by brute force. And as Isaac Arthur reminds us, "if brute force isn't working, you're just not using enough of it." The defenders have 100,000 missiles and thousands of Ghost Riders to throw at the problem. So this becomes a race against time. Can the MAN be sure that it will win that race?

And if it can't, is this still a worthwhile trade-off for the LD and its associated technology? Because I feel that if it's to be used as a diversion, it's not worth the risk.

As for doing the same simultaneously at multiple wormholes, that's inviting coordination errors. They can't retain a constant line of communication. See the discussion about Tsang knowing that Filareta had arrived at Manticore for her transit.

I suppose that an LD could creep very slowly into tactical GT of the lane taking ships from Trevor's Star and hang there until something kicked the hornet nest at Trevor's Star and then launched the GTs in the direction of the lane though it would then have to depend on the torpedos passive sensors to pick out a ship that it could get into engagement range of before it could trigger the grazer. On something like a DD, that would be catastrophic but a BC might not be destroyed (though it might have to divert out of the lane because of impeller and sail equipment. An SD, perhaps the same though to kill something that big it would have to hit something a fusion plant and cause loss of containment.

Of course the 1st grazer that fired will cause a lot of excitement and though it might stop the transits till the source was discovered, all the warships would be bringing up sidewalls and an awful lot of warships (and LACs) would start hammering away with active sensors looking. Unless the LD was still safely out far enough to hyper out that could be the Alignments 1st LD loss...and if that ship wasn't rigged for self destruct the wreckage would be a major tech loss coming int RMN hands.

Would it be worth it? Depends but you would have to ask the Alignment about that.

With twenty-eight Shark-class training ships having been successful, a far bigger number of Leonard Detweiler-class units were planned to be built.

My idea of a bigger number is fifty or more. My idea of a far bigger number eclipses one hundred. Your inexact mileage may vary.

And, the author teased me that they were ready. At least that is what I took away from it.

An LD sitting in a nest may have up the kilt shots. Are energy weapons fired up the tailpipe as destructive?

Oh, and yes, I do think a tricked-out LD traded for the lion's share of 8th Fleet is a hell of a sacrifice. That may be akin to trading a Rook for a "Queen."

cthia wrote:

With twenty-eight Shark-class training ships having been successful, a far bigger number of Leonard Detweiler-class units were planned to be built.

My idea of a bigger number is fifty or more. My idea of a far bigger number eclipses one hundred. Your inexact mileage may vary.

Fair enough, but what's the timeline to build all that? A 12-million tonne ship will take 3 to 4 years to build, once you get into stride. The first of her class will probably take close to 5. How many can they build in parallel? If we can they can build 30 at a time for 3 years in each batch on average, it'll take 12 years to get to 100, starting from 1923. And I'm being very generous here for an entity with no track record of building large capital ships (much less 50% bigger than anyone builds). There are all sorts of snags that can hit a production line.

They may not have that long.

And, the author teased me that they were ready. At least that is what I took away from it.

They can't be. They weren't ready for the launch of Oyster Bay in late 1921, so even if the prototype was already being built, it won't be ready until 1925. Add 9 years from that to get to 100.

Oh, and yes, I do think a tricked-out LD traded for the lion's share of 8th Fleet is a hell of a sacrifice. That may be akin to trading a Rook for a "Queen."

I would agree. But the tactic you described didn't destroy any capital ship in the Eighth Fleet, only a few scouting destroyers or maybe cruisers. All it did was prevent Eighth Fleet from transiting.

I call anything below a 10:1 mass ratio a bad trade-off. So if an LD masses 12 million tonnes, then it has to get 12 Invictus-class SD(P)s before being destroyed. The tactic as described was 10:1 in favour of the RMN: less than 1.2 million tonnes killed.

cthia wrote:And, the author teased me that they were ready. At least that is what I took away from it.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:They can't be. They weren't ready for the launch of Oyster Bay in late 1921, so even if the prototype was already being built, it won't be ready until 1925. Add 9 years from that to get to 100.

I'll testify in a court of law that the author teased me that they are, indeed, ready. You'll have to take up arms with him if you don't agree with his assessment on the MA's build times. And while you're at it, knock him back a peg or two on how fast Grayson built their ships. Personally I think you're suffering from SL arrogance. That's a dangerous disease.

cthia wrote:Oh, and yes, I do think a tricked-out LD traded for the lion's share of 8th Fleet is a hell of a sacrifice. That may be akin to trading a Rook for a "Queen."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I would agree. But the tactic you described didn't destroy any capital ship in the Eighth Fleet, only a few scouting destroyers or maybe cruisers. All it did was prevent Eighth Fleet from transiting.

No. That was your own appraisal of the tactic before digesting it. You were also ready to claim the tactic has no merit or needs no further discussion. Reread everything I was saying again. Admittedly, I did get caught up in dialogue of what the LD would suffer if caught sneaking in. Where, yes, in that case they may indeed have to destroy a few ants to survive.

If a navy can sneak untold weaponry right into someone's garage, why waste it on his silly station wagon. Go for the Ferrari, the Lamborghini, the Tesla, the British Bulldog. But for goodness sake, don't waste time on the station wagon. Do you really think the Alpha infested MA will make that mistake?

Question: When preparing to transit, aren't all warships vulnerable? No wedge, no sidewalls?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I call anything below a 10:1 mass ratio a bad trade-off. So if an LD masses 12 million tonnes, then it has to get 12 Invictus-class SD(P)s before being destroyed. The tactic as described was 10:1 in favour of the RMN: less than 1.2 million tonnes killed.

I still think an LD sitting in a nest - akin to a sniper with a machine gun sitting in the huge tree in your yard - can wipe out a fleet waiting to transit.

It reminds me of the water-balloon bomb-prank we all placed over the door as kids. It will get you each and every time because the victim is relaxed, unsuspecting, and totally vulnerable to an "inside" job.

cthia wrote:I'll testify in a court of law that the author teased me that they are, indeed, ready. You'll have to take up arms with him if you don't agree with his assessment on the MA's build times. And while you're at it, knock him back a peg or two on how fast Grayson built their ships. Personally I think you're suffering from SL arrogance. That's a dangerous disease.

Did he give you a year number and a ship count? I really find it hard to believe the MAN would be able to build 100 LDs in less than a decade. I find it hard to believe they could build that many in two decades! Of course, if David makes them do it, then I'll have to swallow my argument. I suspect that when he told you they're "ready," he might have meant the design is ready and the prototype is rolling off the yard right as UH closes.

The problem here is know-how: they don't have it. Grayson themselves didn't either, but they had access to those who did: the Manties. The entire build programme at Yeltsin's Star was a copy & paste of the 60 years of learnings from Manticore's yards. Manticore went from 3 SDs and 11 DNs in 1844 to 186 + 121 in 1905 (with 2 SDs decommissioned). That's an addition of 295 capital ships in 60 years, or an average of just under 5 per decade. And you can peruse the Appendix to House of Steel to see just how difficult it was to hit the stride and produce good ships that are also maintainable and upgradable. Manticore and Grayson by the 1920s were also the only entities in the Galaxy capable of building a 9-million tonne ship in 24 months.

I suppose the Alignment had access to Technodyne's know-how, due to their long infiltration of that transstellar. And they did iron out some of the kinks in the production of the Sharks. But even Technodyne was taking 4 years to build a 6.8-million tonne SDs. True, they built slowly because the SLN wouldn't consume them any faster, but that doesn't mean they can remove the speed limiters and suddenly become twice as fast without breaking everything. Even if they tried (and they will try!), it'll take a few iterations to go from 48 months to 36 and then maybe to 30. That means a full decade from now, and information the Alignment cannot tap.

Then there's the whole "maintainable and upgradable" concept, which Technodyne simply did not have. The Solly ships were maybe meant to be upgradable in theory, but in practice that may be a completely different story. Not having had to do it -- neglecting to do it on their Reserve, in fact -- means they don't have the expertise now and may have committed serious mistakes in the design. That means the LDs may have a fatal flaw in their service life.

Which won't matter if they are only needed in a short war.

I also have a hard time believing the Inner Onion would hoard 100 LDs before committing to a single action. That's not their way of thinking. They're opportunists, or at least the current generation is. Oyster Bay is proof to that.

cthia wrote:No. That was your own appraisal of the tactic before digesting it. You were also ready to claim the tactic has no merit or needs no further discussion. Reread everything I was saying again. Admittedly, I did get caught up in dialogue of what the LD would suffer if caught sneaking in. Where, yes, in that case they may indeed have to destroy a few ants to survive.

I stand by what I said. No fleet will force a transit into a hostile territory and they will know the territory is hostile. All it takes is that every tenth ship transits back to say "all is still clear." In fact, if twice they do that, that means there are already 20 ships on the other side with their side walls up, making evasive manoeuvres, and ready for action, thus not vulnerable to graser shots. Some of them may be vulnerable to up-the-kilt shots, but not all of them, not at the same time.

This is all assuming the attacker can get into position (which I don't buy) and won't be destroyed after the first few shots. For this to be possible at all, you need all two dozen forts to have become giant balls of expanding debris and you have not proposed a tactic that will get there.

If a navy can sneak untold weaponry right into someone's garage, why waste it on his silly station wagon. Go for the Ferrari, the Lamborghini, the Tesla, the British Bulldog. But for goodness sake, don't waste time on the station wagon. Do you really think the Alpha infested MA will make that mistake?

While I totally agree with that paragraph, I fail to see how having the right mentality achieves the result. Yes, the attack should go for the (metaphorical) Crown Jewels. I just haven't heard a strategy I think can achieve that.

Question: When preparing to transit, aren't all warships vulnerable? No wedge, no sidewalls?

Correct. They have to transition from wedge to sails and we haven't been told the sails are of any use defending a ship. Yes, they are stressed gravity bands and I suppose no weapon can penetrate them, but the other aspects of the ship are visible, including the tips of the fore and aft. So an attacker may not have an angle to shoot at the body of the ship, but they can definitely target the centre of the sail facing them and inflict serious damage.

And on exit, it's even worse, because they'll shut the sails down soon after transit and coast out of the exit lane, or use thrusters to do so. The wedge can't be engaged yet. That's how the LACs were destroying the transiting SLN ships during the Battle of Ajay-Prime, using the exact tactic you're proposing (except they were riding on a ship 400x smaller).

And that's exactly why the Eighth or Grand Fleet won't make the same mistake: they know the tactic.

I still think an LD sitting in a nest - akin to a sniper with a machine gun sitting in the huge tree in your yard - can wipe out a fleet waiting to transit.

See above for my arguments pointing what look to me like flaws in that plan.

But, in summary:

• There are two dozen forts around the Junction, some of which will at any point in time have their bubble walls up. So even if a surprise Silver Bullet manages to take out all those that are stood down, the ones with the bubble walls up will survive.
• If some forts survive, they'll bring their three dozen graser mounts to bear on any ship that is sniping at transiting ships. They don't need to know for certain where it is, they can keep shooting blind in the general direction and eventually they may score a hit. As I said upthread: they only need to get lucky once.
• For Eighth or Grand Fleet to begin making transit, it needs to know that they are needed. That means something must have happened. If it was all the forts (somehow) blowing up, then this part of the message is carried through and the fleet knows the Junction is held by hostiles. For the message to have been "come quick, Junction is secure," it must have been something else in the system, but that means the forts will have brought up their bubble walls (all of them) thus making the attacker's chances that much smaller.
• If the Fleet attempts to make a transit into hostile-held territory, it will institute "call back" procedures, which I think should be the SOP any way. As far as we know, the lanes can be used bi-directionally, and the only limiting factor may be the wormhole's own disruption that impedes transit. In my mind, the ability to get two-way communication seriously outweighs the cost of a delayed transit due to a destroyer transiting back (for what, 12 seconds?).
• If the attackers allow the Fleet to keep sending "keep coming, all is clear" messages, that means they're building up forces on this side of the Junction with sidewalls up and very close to exit lanes, so any close-by attacker is at serious risk of being located.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:[*] If the Fleet attempts to make a transit into hostile-held territory, it will institute "call back" procedures, which I think should be the SOP any way. As far as we know, the lanes can be used bi-directionally, and the only limiting factor may be the wormhole's own disruption that impedes transit. In my mind, the ability to get two-way communication seriously outweighs the cost of a delayed transit due to a destroyer transiting back (for what, 12 seconds?).

10 seconds; actually.

Any transit of up to 2.5 mtons locks down that leg of the Junction for 10 seconds. So a Nike-class BC(L) is the point where a solo warship transit will exceed that 10 second minimum lockdown duration (by my calculations a Nike would lock it down for less than two tenths of a second longer )

Mind you, I'm not sure we've been told that the arrival and departure lanes are physically separate. So keeping the ships out of each other's way might (or might not) cause a disruption of more than 10 seconds in the flow of 8th fleet's arrival - even though the wormhole would be unlocked at 10.

Jonathan_S wrote:Any transit of up to 2.5 mtons locks down the Junction for 10 seconds.

Incidentally that tonnage limit could theoretically let you shove escorts through the Junction even more quickly than we saw happen in White Haven's rush to reinforce Basilisk.

It'd be dangerous, and in practice might well take so long to set up that it wouldn't actually save time; but, in theory, you could group the escorts into mini-mass transits of just below the 2.5 mton limit and send those groups through on 10 second intervals.


Even with an oversize destroyers like Rolands you could group 13 of them at a time, with your latest CLs (Avalons) you could do that same trick with 17 . Or 5 Sag-C's at a time. Any BC(P) is too massive to pair up; but you could fit a Sag-C, & Roland through with one. (Well you could pair up BC(P)s but at ~3.5 mtons it barely saves any time over sending them 1 at a time; 19.61 seconds vs 20 seconds)

Jonathan_S wrote:Even with an oversize destroyers like Rolands you could group 13 of them at a time, with your latest CLs (Avalons) you could do that same trick with 17 . Or 5 Sag-C's at a time. Any BC(P) is too massive to pair up; but you could fit a Sag-C, & Roland through with one. (Well you could pair up BC(P)s but at ~3.5 mtons it barely saves any time over sending them 1 at a time; 19.61 seconds vs 20 seconds)

That's an interesting option to have, if you're going to try to push into disputed (not held) wormhole space. You can probably group into 3-million tonne groups and send two DDrons at at a time to clear the arrival space. So GF or 8F could do that, if the wormhole is in dispute and the risk is worth it.

They can even take a page from Starfire and fire Dazzlers in defensive mode on arrival. The positioning of 16 destroyers is already not predictable, so it takes time for the sniping ship to set up shots (anywhere from a fraction of a second to 3). If in that time they can send a wave of Dazzlers, they may make their survival far more likely. If nothing else, it should make the arrival of the next 16 destroyers in 15 seconds far more so.

The question here is whether the Dazzlers can be used in the exit lane at all. They can't bring up their wedges so they can't get very far away. They'll only get as far as the magrails allow them to, plus whatever thruster time they have. So, will they be too close to the firing ships that their energy release would fry them?

Then again, given the alternative, that might be a good trade-off. Only David has been reluctant to send ships this way in the HV.

But it of course needs two-way communication. If you send 48 destroyers and none of them come back, you don't send superdreadnoughts.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
That's an interesting option to have, if you're going to try to push into disputed (not held) wormhole space. You can probably group into 3-million tonne groups and send two DDrons at at a time to clear the arrival space. So GF or 8F could do that, if the wormhole is in dispute and the risk is worth it.

They can even take a page from Starfire and fire Dazzlers in defensive mode on arrival. The positioning of 16 destroyers is already not predictable, so it takes time for the sniping ship to set up shots (anywhere from a fraction of a second to 3). If in that time they can send a wave of Dazzlers, they may make their survival far more likely. If nothing else, it should make the arrival of the next 16 destroyers in 15 seconds far more so.

The question here is whether the Dazzlers can be used in the exit lane at all. They can't bring up their wedges so they can't get very far away. They'll only get as far as the magrails allow them to, plus whatever thruster time they have. So, will they be too close to the firing ships that their energy release would fry them?

Then again, given the alternative, that might be a good trade-off. Only David has been reluctant to send ships this way in the HV.

But it of course needs two-way communication. If you send 48 destroyers and none of them come back, you don't send superdreadnoughts.

I'm under the impression that without sails to stabilize themselves anything launched clear of the ship isn't going to last long in the grav turbulence of the emergence lane. But I'm not sure if "not long" means a minute, seconds, or milliseconds. Decoy and jamming drones are probably a waste if it's milliseconds but if, on average, they survive the better part of a minute then that's worth something.

OTOH I'd extremely hesitant to send even a pair of groups at a 10 second interval if there's any chance of active hostiles on the far end. Even sending single ships at 10 second intervals, without any hostile action, we saw in White Haven's rush to Basilisk a ship fail to get clear and the following ship unable to completely avoid collision and damage to both. Only the quick application of tractor beams, on the part of earlier ships, kept that from turning into a chain reaction of crashing ships.

If defenders are potentially crippling much of that first group then the follow-ups arriving at 10 second intervals are going to slam right into a debris field they won't have time or space to avoid. Send 48 DDs through on that kind of pacing and you might lose more to collision with the wreckage of earlier transits than the enemy manages to kill directly.