Wormhole Assault: MA Style

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:The fear factor alone wouldn't be the problem. The problem is the efficacy of the demonstration strikes provided by the B-52s, err, the LDs. The ultimatum issued by the MA which mirrors the warning Honor presented to the SL that there will be no more "demonstration strikes" if her demands go unheeded -- plus the fact that the GA still don't know the location of Darius -- will do it.

Or a closer case: Operation Buttercup or the Apollo missiles.

Good point.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The efficacy of the ultimatum depends on how effective those attacks are and how difficult it is to counter them. We don't know. We're speculating and for the past year or two, our opinions here differ by quite a lot.

If the MAlign can deliver a Short Victorious War, then game over. Quite clearly, it won't be the case, otherwise the books wouldn't be enjoyable. That means we have one of two possibilities: either the attacks happen but can be further blocked or they don't happen at all. Ok, third case: an attack is attempted but fails.

I think the varying differences in speculation is knowing who the good guys are, and knowing that the good guys always win. In the end. But fans have been pestering the author about the anticlimactic -- all growl and no fight -- gorilla in the midst. We have been begging for a formidable foe for a change. Many a thread has been created on the forum complaining about how Manticore and the RMN have always had an unrealistically easy time of it. I think the author will deliver on this one. I think he has been stockpiling handwavium and saving the best for last.

cthia wrote:The weakness of an Alliance is that the enemy may see you as one big obstacle. If the MA defeats the two biggest kids on the block, and vows to do the same to anyone who resists without hesitation or discussion, what logically can be done? Suicide is not becoming of a superpower. The Andermani, Grayson and Beowulf have an obligation to their people. Protector Benjamin certainly can't "protect" anyone who will soon be dead.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:But if they won't be dead and he can protect them, he will. So will the Gustav Anderman & Herzog Rabenstrage. And there's simply no way that Beowulf will stand down.

Those may turn out to be gargantuan IFS, in the opening phases at least. But about Beowulf. In another thread I stated how Beowulf may have a date with destiny. Beowulf will be the first planet stepped on by the MA if they have to return. The MA will be just waiting and hoping that Beowulf resists. Just hoping Beowulf will "Make our day."

cthia wrote:Since the Alliance is formed by Grayson, Manticore and Haven -- while in orbit of the nexus of the GA -- the MA may demand they all lay down their weapons and rescind the Beowulf Code. If the ultimatum is the same as what Honor issued, "Or we will return and ask no questions and take no prisoners. Your planets will be destroyed."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:"Resistance is futile?" We've seen that before and we know how it ended.

We sure do don't we? It eventually ended in a win for the Federation, but only after... (wiki time) ...

Wiki wrote:The Battle of Wolf 359 took place in early 2367 in the Wolf system, roughly eight light years from Earth, between the forces of the United Federation of Planets and the Borg Collective. It was recorded as one of the most destructive battles in Federation history prior to the Dominion War.

An early story outline of TNG: "The Best of Both Worlds, Part II" described the Battle of 359 as "the worst defeat in military annals since the Spanish Armada was sunk."

And Picard was assimilated. The Borg Cube left so much debris in the system the Federation might still be cleaning it up. The only thing that stopped the Borg Cube, which had made it right into the Sol System's back yard -- with nary a scratch, mind you -- was the providential insight provided by an assimilated Picard.

cthia wrote:Unless!, the GA can pull an Oscar (Saint-Just) performance out of their hat, stall for time and make good use of that time. That is a big IF since it is predicated on neutralizing MA stealth and finding Darius.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I think we can be assured that there will be something to pave the way for The Good Guys winning.

Absolutely. We know the good guys will win in the end. I don't dispute that. What I am saying is that they are going to bleed profusely, first. They will win the war, but I believe they will lose a lot of battles in-between.

In fact, that is when I see storyline advancing. I see the Salamander coming out of retirement and Honoring her promise to deal with the devils, after their lair is discovered. As with Picard, it may come down to her sixth-sense and providence, that ultimately saves the day.

Did you see the movie, Man on Fire? Well, the book was a lot better. Pita died a horrific death that they simply could not portray in the movie. Point being, it set the stage to forgive Denzel for truly being a man on fire.

Likewise, the author has to walk the same fine line between war and senseless killing. He walked that line with Honor in the Sol system. But he had to make the fans identify with the anger Honor bore for the Solarians. If Honor is going to be dispatched to Darius with the same blood in her eye and the system is destroyed, as it should be, then the MA has to open new wounds on a new level of destruction to justify the total destruction of Darius, and or its system.

If the SL renew their place among humanity by joining the GA, at least temporarily, it will be a fitting end to the series, along with the MA's destruction.

But first, a very successful campaign by the LDs.

This time the enemy doesn't only engender fear, they are Alphas.

The author can't build up another foe, again, only to abandon his fans, again, at the very end. And, again, this time, they are Alphas.

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Late edit: Repaired one misattributed post.
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cthia wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:"Resistance is futile?" We've seen that before and we know how it ended.

We sure do don't we? It eventually ended in a win for the Federation, but only after... (wiki time) ...

Wiki wrote:The Battle of Wolf 359 took place in early 2367 in the Wolf system, roughly eight light years from Earth, between the forces of the United Federation of Planets and the Borg Collective. It was recorded as one of the most destructive battles in Federation history prior to the Dominion War.

An early story outline of TNG: "The Best of Both Worlds, Part II" described the Battle of 359 as "the worst defeat in military annals since the Spanish Armada was sunk."

And Picard was assimilated. The Borg Cube left so much debris in the system the Federation might still be cleaning it up. The only thing that stopped the Borg Cube, which had made it right into the Sol System's back yard -- with nary a scratch, mind you -- was the providential insight provided by an assimilated Picard.

Heh, they may have wanted something rivalling the Spanish Armada but they got something more like Hunt the Bismarck due to 80s television tech limits.

That Dominion War caveat is there for good reason: numerous battles during it dwarfed Wolf 359. Interestingly, Wolf 359 is credited for persuading Starfleet to begin designing proper warships(and warfighting refits) - just in time for the Dominion War. In other words, the Dominion might well have rolled over them completely without the earlier Borg attack provoking a lot of preparation.

If Oyster Bay was Manticore's Wolf 359, it only helped them win their Dominion War(against the League, by making peace with Haven). All this helped the Federation when the Borg tried again at the Battle of Sector 001 - indeed, Starfleet was so confident they initially left the Enterprise-E on the sidelines(& possibly thousands more ships on the Dominion border).

The presence of a smashed Borg cube in STP shows that resistance is still far from futile.

cthia wrote:And Picard was assimilated. The Borg Cube left so much debris in the system the Federation might still be cleaning it up. The only thing that stopped the Borg Cube, which had made it right into the Sol System's back yard -- with nary a scratch, mind you -- was the providential insight provided by an assimilated Picard.

The Battle of Wolf 359 cost 11,000 lives and 39 ships, but as a whole the whole Borg Incursion of 2366 didn't affect the Federation much. Starfleet had another 400 ships, so this only affected 10% of the fleet (it literally decimated, but in the original sense, not what people mean today by "decimate"). Almost no planets were affected or attacked by the Borg. The Borg were looking at a strategic decapitation strike and in assimilating.

Compare that to the Borg Invasion of 2381 (books only, in David Mack's "Destiny" series, which is why this is called "Mack's Mess"), which killed 63 billion people and devastated dozens of planets, rendering most of them completely lifeless. This time, they weren't trying to assimilate, just destroy.

It's unclear if the future in the Star Trek: Picard series includes Mack's mess.

cthia wrote:Absolutely. We know the good guys will win in the end. I don't dispute that. What I am saying is that they are going to bleed profusely, first. They will win the war, but I believe they will lose a lot of battles in-between.

I agree with you. The RMN walking over the MAlign wouldn't be enjoyable either.

My argument is that the MAlign simply can't have a Short Victorious War because they can't win the war.

Likewise, the author has to walk the same fine line between war and senseless killing. He walked that line with Honor in the Sol system. But he had to make the fans identify with the anger Honor bore for the Solarians. If Honor is going to be dispatched to Darius with the same blood in her eye and the system is destroyed, as it should be, then the MA has to open new wounds on a new level of destruction to justify the total destruction of Darius, and or its system.

If the SL renew their place among humanity by joining the GA, at least temporarily, it will be a fitting end to the series, along with the MA's destruction.

But first, a very successful campaign by the LDs.

Despite all my criticism of the LDs, I actually want to see them successful in the beginning. The problem is that currently there's no strategy that I can see that can lead to a series of victories. The design as we know it would only lead to a Battle of the Sudden Flame (Tolkien, the fourth battle in the War of the Jewels). They have to win a lot and achieve a significant number of goals in one go. But it doesn't lead to a series of victories and campaigns, because they're fragile eggs and have a huge single point of failure.

The only way I can make sense of this is that there's more about the LDs and the MAlign's strategy than we know about.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The only way I can make sense of this is that there's more about the LDs and the MAlign's strategy than we know about.

Now I'm unsure of exactly why they would actually want to do this, but I'll assume they do. (The whole plan/leadership of the MA has some 'issues'.)

They could take down probably 2/3 to 3/4+ of the mobile forces of Manticore, GSN and the IAN with a dozen ships. The IAN, GSN and RMN don't take the steps needed to protect against a bolt from the blue, which is to run your wedge, sidewall and end caps ALL the time.

The RHN is harder, but another dozen ships would get them. However I wouldn't execute until I had Bolthole. And based on how many people with no need to know got told where it was, it won't be long.

The rest of the fleet is a problem, but since the follow up is to immediately demand surrender of the planets with the naval bases, this is a problem that you can finesse given they have no reloads or spares. Probably.

And that last is the plot.

cthia wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:"Resistance is futile?" We've seen that before and we know how it ended.

We sure do don't we? It eventually ended in a win for the Federation, but only after... (wiki time) ...

Wiki wrote:The Battle of Wolf 359 took place in early 2367 in the Wolf system, roughly eight light years from Earth, between the forces of the United Federation of Planets and the Borg Collective. It was recorded as one of the most destructive battles in Federation history prior to the Dominion War.

An early story outline of TNG: "The Best of Both Worlds, Part II" described the Battle of 359 as "the worst defeat in military annals since the Spanish Armada was sunk."

And Picard was assimilated. The Borg Cube left so much debris in the system the Federation might still be cleaning it up. The only thing that stopped the Borg Cube, which had made it right into the Sol System's back yard -- with nary a scratch, mind you -- was the providential insight provided by an assimilated Picard.

munroburton wrote:Heh, they may have wanted something rivalling the Spanish Armada but they got something more like Hunt the Bismarck due to 80s television tech limits.

Yet, you did note the "sunk" analogy, and the fact that the LDs are analogues of subs, and the fact that the GA has a collective Armada? Much of which will be sunk or circumvented?

munroburton wrote:That Dominion War caveat is there for good reason: numerous battles during it dwarfed Wolf 359. Interestingly, Wolf 359 is credited for persuading Starfleet to begin designing proper warships(and warfighting refits) - just in time for the Dominion War. In other words, the Dominion might well have rolled over them completely without the earlier Borg attack provoking a lot of preparation.

If Oyster Bay was Manticore's Wolf 359, it only helped them win their Dominion War(against the League, by making peace with Haven). All this helped the Federation when the Borg tried again at the Battle of Sector 001 - indeed, Starfleet was so confident they initially left the Enterprise-E on the sidelines(& possibly thousands more ships on the Dominion border).

The presence of a smashed Borg cube in STP shows that resistance is still far from futile.

The Dominion War does not apply here as well as Wolf 359. I chose Wolf 359 because of the remarkable similarities which lie just over the horizon. Do realize that only ONE Borg Cube represented such enormous firepower. As does one LD. Do realize what that one Borg Cube achieved. And do consider all of the facts. It was stopped just short of its objective. The next stop was Earth. I think it got as close as Mars? And, it raged its campaign so quickly that the Federation forces were caught off guard, unprepared, and they never became a factor. If it hadn't been for the Enterprise -- and Providence -- all would have been lost. In short, just one Borg Cube fell just shy of a short victorious war. I imagine the population of Earth had a severe case of the shits.

Oyster Bay was nowhere near a Wolf 359. Oyster Bay was a sneak attack carried out by much less than the equivalence of a few frigates. Jury-rigged frigates. What the MA's flagships will bring will make Oyster Bay look like a cheap snack.

The LDs can get behind enemy lines circumventing the enemy defense, and firepower.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:My argument is that the MAlign simply can't have a Short Victorious War because they can't win the war.

I agree on the obvious. My original point is that the MA will proceed as if it can -- as did the SL and Haven -- which is one of the most popular plans in the galaxy whispered into the ears of anyone who will listen by that Demon Murphy. And just like with Haven, a strategy that is intended to be short and decisive is supported and packed with enough goodies to achieve that goal. So much so, that even falling short of victory will still manage to severely ravage the opponent. In the Peep's case, throwing everything at the objective and losing was a serious calculated risk because of imminent reprisals. Being hidden in the dark, the MA doesn't have that problem, and they can better afford to lose it all on one roll of the "die." And if that one die somehow comes up craps, they can retire to fight another day. Another century. With the one remaining die.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The efficacy of the ultimatum depends on how effective those attacks are and how difficult it is to counter them. We don't know. We're speculating and for the past year or two, our opinions here differ by quite a lot.

If the MAlign can deliver a Short Victorious War, then game over. Quite clearly, it won't be the case, otherwise the books wouldn't be enjoyable. That means we have one of two possibilities: either the attacks happen but can be further blocked or they don't happen at all. Ok, third case: an attack is attempted but fails.

However, the first and third possibilities have varying degrees. How much success and destruction will the LDs mete out on the enemy before they are stopped?

I just realized I left out an important explanation as to the many differences of opinion surrounding the success of the LDs. We've seen it already in this thread. A lot of people simply cannot imagine how the LDs can be effective with what we know about them. And that's understandable. But I think a lot of us fail to consider that war sharpens a Navy's tech over time. The Peeps and the SL failed to see the implications and iterations of RMN tech and how it would mature. Many seem to not be able to apply that to the MA and the LDs. Consider that only one of the toys we imagined in the ? will suffice to make the LDs very formidable. We don't know what that something else is, but we do know that it is coming.

Be it a graser-impeller hybrid and/or my notion of a traditional missile launched from spitting distance that expends its wad quickly to achieve insane accelerations to swamp enemy defense. After all, we don't really know how the GA's point defense will perform if its usual allotment of time is severely truncated. Again, it is senseless for the LD to use traditional missiles at the range in which they may launch, leaving so much time on the drives. A missile that expends its wad quickly to achieve absurd accelerations (even if driven by a small supply of handwavium) makes more sense to support the LD's doctrine.

At any rate, some of us realize that the LDs will not be a pushover. The GA will need time to counter them and their supporting tech. To do that, they will need at least one look at them to achieve that goal. Even Sonja's Triple Ripple wasn't defeated on the spot.

Consider kzt's post which highlights the possible efficacy of the LDs with simply a dozen ships. Telling. Very telling indeed. The LDs simply need a few toys to go along with their stealth. Surely no one doubts that they will have those toys.

kzt wrote:Now I'm unsure of exactly why they would actually want to do this, but I'll assume they do. (The whole plan/leadership of the MA has some 'issues'.)

They could take down probably 2/3 to 3/4+ of the mobile forces of Manticore, GSN and the IAN with a dozen ships. The IAN, GSN and RMN don't take the steps needed to protect against a bolt from the blue, which is to run your wedge, sidewall and end caps ALL the time.

The RHN is harder, but another dozen ships would get them. However I wouldn't execute until I had Bolthole. And based on how many people with no need to know got told where it was, it won't be long.

The rest of the fleet is a problem, but since the follow up is to immediately demand surrender of the planets with the naval bases, this is a problem that you can finesse given they have no reloads or spares. Probably.

And that last is the plot.

Is that the imminent music of doom, death and destruction I hear? Sure, they are slow like the turtle. The turtle persevered and won.

cthia wrote:However, the first and third possibilities have varying degrees. How much success and destruction will the LDs mete out on the enemy before they are stopped?

I'm not disagreeing with that. I'm just saying I fail to see how the LDs, as we understand them, can do that. There must be more.

And no, it's not what you were suggesting.

Be it a graser-impeller hybrid and/or my notion of a traditional missile launched from spitting distance that expends its wad quickly to achieve insane accelerations to swamp enemy defense. After all, we don't really know how the GA's point defense will perform if its usual allotment of time is severely truncated. Again, it is senseless for the LD to use traditional missiles at the range in which they may launch, leaving so much time on the drives. A missile that expends its wad quickly to achieve absurd accelerations (even if driven by a small supply of handwavium) makes more sense to support the LD's doctrine.

Please recheck my calculations on this. Any missile fired from a distance that the LD wouldn't have been detected in the first place (1 light-second) would give the defenders plenty of time to bring defences up and fire CMs, so long as the closing speed is negligible. The best we have today would have the missiles take 20 seconds from launch to strike. And it's unlikely the MAlign has a breakthrough in impeller/compensator performance, because if they did they would put that on their ships instead of the spider drive. Rule #1 of Space Warfare: speed is everything.

The closing speed would need to be significant to allow the missiles to strike home before the targeted ships can bring up their defences. 6 hours of acceleration on an LD gives them 0.1c, which reduces the missile flight time from 20 seconds to 6.5. That's still sufficient for PDLCs to engage and fire, but it's reduced. The problem in this scenario is that the LD needs to know 6 hours ahead of time where the enemy will be. You can never attack a fleet or even a single ship out in manoeuvres like this.

At any rate, some of us realize that the LDs will not be a pushover. The GA will need time to counter them and their supporting tech. To do that, they will need at least one look at them to achieve that goal. Even Sonja's Triple Ripple wasn't defeated on the spot.

Completely agreed.

Consider kzt's post which highlights the possible efficacy of the LDs with simply a dozen ships. Telling. Very telling indeed. The LDs simply need a few toys to go along with their stealth. Surely no one doubts that they will have those toys.

He may be right about what eventually happens, but again this requires a hidden variable we have no knowledge of right now. And he's probably off by a factor of 3: you need three dozen LDs in order to take on 10x as many RMN ships of the wall, at a minimum.

Add that in the opening strike, no one knows how well those ships will fare, not even the MAN strategists. Rule #1 of Space Warfare: there ain't no such thing as overkill, but there is underkill. Anyone who proposed that an unbloodied ship is equal to 10x the number and 7x the mass in state-of-the-art RMN or GSN superdreadnoughts ought to be properly labelled a madman.

I'm not saying that serendipity can't make it so. After all, 10 RMN heavy cruisers took on 7x their number and 70x their mass of SLN superdreadnoughts and won. I am saying that until you try and see that you can, it would be lunacy to assume you can.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:He may be right about what eventually happens, but again this requires a hidden variable we have no knowledge of right now. And he's probably off by a factor of 3: you need three dozen LDs in order to take on 10x as many RMN ships of the wall, at a minimum.

Add that in the opening strike, no one knows how well those ships will fare, not even the MAN strategists. Rule #1 of Space Warfare: there ain't no such thing as overkill, but there is underkill. Anyone who proposed that an unbloodied ship is equal to 10x the number and 7x the mass in state-of-the-art RMN or GSN superdreadnoughts ought to be properly labelled a madman.

The RMN had an entire fleet sitting a light hour or two outside of Beowulf. With their nodes cold, taking an hour iirc to bring us the wedge.

That seems to be SOP for the RMN.

Assume an LD is 30 tons, of which 6 million tons is composed of 12,000 ton torpedoes. So the fleet sitting in orbit with their wedge down gets hit with 500 graser torps over about 5 seconds (per LD). And since they can choose their attack aspect they go through the dorsal or ventral surface and cuts say a 500 meter long slash through the entire ship. The question isn't whether the ship will be effectively destroyed, the question is whether you'll hit a reactor and kill everyone or if you have to try treat the gamma radiation exposure from those where not killed outright.

And yes, there is such a thing as overkill. You always have more targets than means to destroy them. If you dump 30 salvos of missiles on a fleet only to destroy them with the first seven the odds are pretty good that you could have done something more useful with those 23 missile salvos or the launch platforms.

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:He may be right about what eventually happens, but again this requires a hidden variable we have no knowledge of right now. And he's probably off by a factor of 3: you need three dozen LDs in order to take on 10x as many RMN ships of the wall, at a minimum.

Add that in the opening strike, no one knows how well those ships will fare, not even the MAN strategists. Rule #1 of Space Warfare: there ain't no such thing as overkill, but there is underkill. Anyone who proposed that an unbloodied ship is equal to 10x the number and 7x the mass in state-of-the-art RMN or GSN superdreadnoughts ought to be properly labelled a madman.

The RMN had an entire fleet sitting a light hour or two outside of Beowulf. With their nodes cold, taking an hour iirc to bring us the wedge.

That seems to be SOP for the RMN.

Assume an LD is 30 tons, of which 6 million tons is composed of 12,000 ton torpedoes. So the fleet sitting in orbit with their wedge down gets hit with 500 graser torps over about 5 seconds (per LD). And since they can choose their attack aspect they go through the dorsal or ventral surface and cuts say a 500 meter long slash through the entire ship. The question isn't whether the ship will be effectively destroyed, the question is whether you'll hit a reactor and kill everyone or if you have to try treat the gamma radiation exposure from those where not killed outright.

And yes, there is such a thing as overkill. You always have more targets than means to destroy them. If you dump 30 salvos of missiles on a fleet only to destroy them with the first seven the odds are pretty good that you could have done something more useful with those 23 missile salvos or the launch platforms.

Déjà vu must have its due. This is the same notion that plagued me in the Battle of Spindle thread when I questioned Henke's decision to spend twelve thousand missiles in a launch on Sandra Crandall. But only because she said she wanted to test the waters of SLN systems. I don't know how she got much information on the efficacy of their systems with that launch. Anyways, it is wasted water and missiles under the bridge.

The RMN had a habit of chucking missiles that didn't grow on trees. The poor little AI's aboard RMN missiles must have been exasperated quite a lot. "You don't need this many of us!"

cthia wrote:Be it a graser-impeller hybrid and/or my notion of a traditional missile launched from spitting distance that expends its wad quickly to achieve insane accelerations to swamp enemy defense. After all, we don't really know how the GA's point defense will perform if its usual allotment of time is severely truncated. Again, it is senseless for the LD to use traditional missiles at the range in which they may launch, leaving so much time on the drives. A missile that expends its wad quickly to achieve absurd accelerations (even if driven by a small supply of handwavium) makes more sense to support the LD's doctrine.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Please recheck my calculations on this. Any missile fired from a distance that the LD wouldn't have been detected in the first place (1 light-second) would give the defenders plenty of time to bring defences up and fire CMs, so long as the closing speed is negligible. The best we have today would have the missiles take 20 seconds from launch to strike. And it's unlikely the MAlign has a breakthrough in impeller/compensator performance, because if they did they would put that on their ships instead of the spider drive. Rule #1 of Space Warfare: speed is everything.

The closing speed would need to be significant to allow the missiles to strike home before the targeted ships can bring up their defences. 6 hours of acceleration on an LD gives them 0.1c, which reduces the missile flight time from 20 seconds to 6.5. That's still sufficient for PDLCs to engage and fire, but it's reduced. The problem in this scenario is that the LD needs to know 6 hours ahead of time where the enemy will be. You can never attack a fleet or even a single ship out in manoeuvres like this.

I'm proposing an missile sporting that impeller breakthrough which achieves the closing speeds close to GA launches. Which, of course, has significantly more time to accelerate. Traditional missile design has never had the motivation to design a missile that expends its wad so quickly from such minimal ranges of which an LD may launch, because traditional ships would never expect to close to such ranges before engaging. I know it will require certain breakthroughs in impeller/compensator design. Upstream I mentioned that the author surely must be stockpiling handwavium for what will surely be his answer to our demands for a formidable foe.

Providence is how an LD will come to be in position for such a launch. I.e., when the fly unsuspectingly flys right into the Spider's web. And also as a result of successful stalkings. Pods of these things can be dumped out to light off when the LD(s) are gone.

Do you really think the MA would forgo the Spider Drive in favor of such a breakthrough in impeller/compensator design? Why not send that breakthrough by overnite mail to the RFN?

Besides, GA missiles already have a fair share of handwavium across the board. Only the good guys get an allotment? Another cornering of the market? LOL

At any rate, since the adamance of the consensus indicates it's not possible, I shall give up the ghost. Point defense shot the idea down in the ? thread as well.