Future of the Renaissance Factor

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Agreed, its core navies were not exactly important immediately, but were going to have to become so in the long run, to achieve its overarching goals of becoming a beacon in the night, and to control the chaos. You cannot control chaos without might.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean they have to have disproportionate military power. They're not trying to (overtly) conquer anyone by force, so having a modern Navy fielding a couple of SD squadrons, maybe one for each of the member systems, suffices.

This plan sounds divine. Speaking for the MA, final approvement will hinge on what constitutes the "other" parts of the MA's plan which are implied isn't accepted by your use of "some." If the RF don't come out in full support of the MAs plans, that will be a conflict of interest, and I can't see the MA negotiating and forgoing any of their objectives that they have planned and "fought for" for centuries.

In fact, it sounds like an omen to the MA of more of the same old judgement they got out of the Beowulf Code. Does the RF plan to make enemies of the MA? The MA has an all or nothing attitude. No more being censured and pigeonholed. The MA literally has no line they will not cross in the laboratory and what is coming out of them now is only the tip of the iceberg. Also, slavery was the Mesan's cash cow, was it not? And the MA despised their use of slavery.

Clarification: I never meant RF independence from the MAlign and the Detweilers. Everything I said is meant as RF public positioning with the direction and blessing of the Detweilers. They would support the Alignment's goals
that can be publicly supported, some that don't actually align with the Alignment (just to throw the scent off and pun intended) and not others that do align.

A rational set of Detweilers would do this. Let the RF pull in one direction while their media influences pushes in a slightly other so that they converge to the direction the MAlign wants. Or at the very least weakens the positions of their opponents.

"A rational set"

It would also require that Mesa forgive the MA. If this plan is simply meant to be a ruse in the MA's favor, then fine. If not, this new RF will only become a target. And I'm afraid they would be setting themselves up to be pawns by the MA again. With possibly already well placed MA sleepers within their midst.

However, nothing will deflect the GA from looking for Darius.

The Mesans don't have to know the RF is controlled by the very same people who deserted them. The Benign Alignment doesn't know they've been controlled, but they sure as hell know someone bombed the hell out of their planet. And the evidence is too strong to keep casting suspicions on the Tenth Fleet for longer than the next book, so the Galaxy will know The Other Guys exist.

The RF can do a lot by trying to separate "Alignment" from "Other Guys." They can sow doubt on the GA's assertion that they are one and the same, and that the Benign Alignment was controlled by the malignant component. This is a win-win for them: they advance their cause and they weaken the GA's position. And in so doing, they can pull members off the League and into the RF's sphere of influence, not the GA's.

Like I said, a ruse. All for public consumption. Good cop, bad cop. In this form, I think the plan is great. If, that big If again, the Benign Alignment can forgive being used as pawns and tossed under the bus. Why would they want to continue to support the owners of the original plan?

It hinges on whether they know that the people who double-crossed them and the RF are one and the same. As I stated in another thread, how can they not know? Unless they are idiots, they should be beginning to put things together for themselves. Two many mistakes were made. And two many crumbs had to be left on Mesa when Houdini was rushed. The biggest concern of the Malign should be its rapture-like biblical moment. Houdini would have been hard on the Benign Alignment even if it had been carried out according to plan. The way it WAS carried out had to have awakened the Benign Alignment to the malignant scent of something or someone, awfully big and fishy. The awful scent of rotting fish is directly proportional to the size of the rancid pile. Two many of their loved ones and friends disappeared without warning. Others were undoubtedly murdered and left behind as evidence. It is a hard pill to swallow that many people who were originally scheduled to have been whisked away by this malignant rapture were not unavoidably left behind. What of them? They may have a crumb or two too many in the cupboard. The MA can ill-afford to send another bus. And, I can't see the Benign Alignment not wanting to forge its own path now. And what of the future of Mesa itself?

Also, the purpose of the RF was to reincorporate the members of Houdini and the population of Darius into the galaxy by providing them a new start and new life. I suppose the people who were part of Houdini will be given new identities and cosmetic surgery. You can't have them being recognized by family members somewhere else in the galaxy. But how will they react when they recognize loved ones they left behind somewhere else in the galaxy is a part of the human element that is beyond me.

Try explaining to the people left on Earth after the rapture that something or someone VERY SIGNIFICANT BIG, POWERFUL AND HIDDEN isn't responsible.

Is something in the water the population on Mesa are consuming that is makjng them gullible and stupid?

You don't need Mesan agents to create warlords and petty kingdoms.

The power vacuum with the dissolution of the League will cause that to happen. Just talk a look at what happened after St Just died. SLN naval officers, OFS officers, Governors,... are all going to be tempted to slice off a piece of the pie for themselves out in the Verge and the Protectorates- and we all know how venal all three groups have been portrayed.

jtg452 wrote:You don't need Mesan agents to create warlords and petty kingdoms.

The power vacuum with the dissolution of the League will cause that to happen. Just talk a look at what happened after St Just died. SLN naval officers, OFS officers, Governors,... are all going to be tempted to slice off a piece of the pie for themselves out in the Verge and the Protectorates- and we all know how venal all three groups have been portrayed.

Absolutely! That was my next post! The big bad gorilla is no longer in the forest. With them gone, old grudges will resurface. Grudges that were not amicably resolved when the SL butted in. Grudges that were allowed to grow and fester. There is no need to manufacture chaos. Humanity is very good at that if left to its own devices.

Besides, real problems are better than manufactured ones that could backfire. See the travels of one Damien Harahap.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Another thing the RF can use to hammer the GA about will be when the RoH and the SEM declare their union. Especially if, as in the thread on the expansion of the Empire, the empire does expand. Then the RF will call the imperialists and expansionists and that should give them an excuse to arm themselves.

I don't think that is a good idea. Oh, I think it would work on a lot of people. Some people can be force-fed shit if you place it between two slices of light bread.

The problem is that it sounds too much like the incoherent babbling of the once-mighty SL. The whole of the galaxy certainly knows the truth now about the RMN and its government. The RMN sowed too many good seeds that bore fruit in the galaxy. Seeds that continue to germinate with Henke. What that would end up doing is gobsmacking Beth and arousing the suspicions of ONI. They shouldn't force the issues.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Agreed, its core navies were not exactly important immediately, but were going to have to become so in the long run, to achieve its overarching goals of becoming a beacon in the night, and to control the chaos. You cannot control chaos without might.

Agreed, but that doesn't mean they have to have disproportionate military power. They're not trying to (overtly) conquer anyone by force, so having a modern Navy fielding a couple of SD squadrons, maybe one for each of the member systems, suffices.

Jonathan_S wrote:And in a lot of ways it's likely less scary for the ex-League systems the RF is designed to woo if the RF member doesn't have overwhelming military power. In uncertain times you're always a bit nervous about putting yourself under protection of a system with the power to turn conquistador should they choose to.

One of your neighbors is probably a more reassuring beacon of stable government if their current SDF is barely adequate to provide minor expeditionary forces to reinforce your SDF or deter minor warlordism from ex-FF units - combined with a pitch to join their new alliance to come together to jointly do the necessary R&D to develop, and then build and crew, a truly modern navy.

But what else would be the carrot? With what will they woo? My post above stamps jtg452's statement that there will be a lot of chaos in the face of a dead gorilla. The RF doesn't want to start out too powerful, but the reverse is also true. Who wants to join a gang that can't protect themselves? Especially when Manticore is looking mighty tempting.

This is another reason the RF shouldn't alienate Manticore. The RMN can actually help them to achieve their goals by being willing to come to their rescue if need be. Remember, the RF may not be then only game in town. Other factions, legitimate factions, may rise out of the ashes apart from them with access to big industry and manufacturing. After all, these are remnants of the industrial might of the SL.

If done correctly, the RF can use Manticore as pawns until such time they are prepared to flex their independent muscles.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:And in a lot of ways it's likely less scary for the ex-League systems the RF is designed to woo if the RF member doesn't have overwhelming military power. In uncertain times you're always a bit nervous about putting yourself under protection of a system with the power to turn conquistador should they choose to.

One of your neighbors is probably a more reassuring beacon of stable government if their current SDF is barely adequate to provide minor expeditionary forces to reinforce your SDF or deter minor warlordism from ex-FF units - combined with a pitch to join their new alliance to come together to jointly do the necessary R&D to develop, and then build and crew, a truly modern navy.

But what else would be the carrot? With what will they woo? My post above stamps jtg452's statement that there will be a lot of chaos in the face of a dead gorilla. The RF doesn't want to start out too powerful, but the reverse is also true. Who wants to join a gang that can't protect themselves? Especially when Manticore is looking mighty tempting.

This is another reason the RF shouldn't alienate Manticore. The RMN can actually help them to achieve their goals by being willing to come to their rescue if need be. Remember, the RF may not be then only game in town. Other factions, legitimate factions, may rise out of the ashes apart from them with access to big industry and manufacturing. After all, these are remnants of the industrial might of the SL.

If done correctly, the RF can use Manticore as pawns until such time they are prepared to flex their independent muscles.

To my mind the carrot is just enough navy to provide a stopgap boost your existing defenses plus agreement on technology sharing, joint R&D on modern warships, and participation in building a modern allied navy.

IOW a promise to make the joining systems full members in an alliance, involved in the creation, funding, manning, and operation of the alliance's navies rather than making them effectively dependent protectorates.

And once the first few systems join and start that participation it make the new alliance centered on the RF system look even more attractive to the next set of neighbors.



After all better to join a neighborhood mutual defense society where all contribute to provide protection than to seek protection from a gang that might just decided to turn on the (otherwise) defenseless folks it originally agreed to protect.

cthia wrote:Like I said, a ruse. All for public consumption. Good cop, bad cop. In this form, I think the plan is great. If, that big If again, the Benign Alignment can forgive being used as pawns and tossed under the bus. Why would they want to continue to support the owners of the original plan?

It hinges on whether they know that the people who double-crossed them and the RF are one and the same. As I stated in another thread, how can they not know? Unless they are idiots, they should be beginning to put things together for themselves.

I still disagree. All Benign Alignment knows is that they've been singled out as the bad guys by the GA but no one in their numbers knows anything about the nefarious conspiracy the Manties keep talking about. And that someone bombed their planet. I agree they will put some things together soon and conclude that The Other Guys exist: those were active on Mesa and bombed their planet. But it's not immediately obvious that the Alignment they know was a pawn. Right now, most of them think that they're being framed, either maliciously by the GA or by some disinformation left by The Other Guys.

Maybe the evidence you need will come out with the Terrible Trio in the next book, though. But even if it doesn't, I don't see any Mesan left on Mesa forgiving The Other Guys.

The evidence that the RF is being controlled by the Inner Onion is not likely to come out in the next book, though. So I doubt the Benign Alignment will start pointing fingers at the RF for the next two books at least.

Two many mistakes were made. And two many crumbs had to be left on Mesa when Houdini was rushed. The biggest concern of the Malign should be its rapture-like biblical moment. Houdini would have been hard on the Benign Alignment even if it had been carried out according to plan. The way it WAS carried out had to have awakened the Benign Alignment to the malignant scent of something or someone, awfully big and fishy. The awful scent of rotting fish is directly proportional to the size of the rancid pile. Two many of their loved ones and friends disappeared without warning. Others were undoubtedly murdered and left behind as evidence. It is a hard pill to swallow that many people who were originally scheduled to have been whisked away by this malignant rapture were not unavoidably left behind. What of them? They may have a crumb or two too many in the cupboard. The MA can ill-afford to send another bus. And, I can't see the Benign Alignment not wanting to forge its own path now. And what of the future of Mesa itself?

I really don't know about the future of Mesa itself. I suppose it's possible they join the RF, due to the proximity of Visigoth. But maybe keeping the RF away from Mesa to avoid suspicions is part of The Plan.

But the rest of your paragraph is referring to mid-onion people who know more about the Alignment than most but were left behind and alive on Mesa. If those exist, I agree with you they will have very strong motivation to act against the Alignment's interests. But we don't know that they do. Houdini was supposed to have killed them all and immediate family members who may have grown suspicious. However, we know it was rushed, so you may be right and there may be such people.

For my side, I do hope there are and that The Terrible Trio does find them in the next book.

Also, the purpose of the RF was to reincorporate the members of Houdini and the population of Darius into the galaxy by providing them a new start and new life. I suppose the people who were part of Houdini will be given new identities and cosmetic surgery. You can't have them being recognized by family members somewhere else in the galaxy. But how will they react when they recognize loved ones they left behind somewhere else in the galaxy is a part of the human element that is beyond me.

Try explaining to the people left on Earth after the rapture that something or someone VERY SIGNIFICANT BIG, POWERFUL AND HIDDEN isn't responsible.

Is something in the water the population on Mesa are consuming that is makjng them gullible and stupid?

There's no evidence that people whisked away by Houdini ended up in RF systems. All the discussion we heard about was about moving them to Darius. That's important because Darius is isolated in communication, so there's no possibility that one of them will try to reach out to a family member or leak information or board a freighter bound for another world. As you say, even if their family members don't recognise them, the reverse wouldn't be true. All of which is possible in any of the dozen RF systems, so that could be an unacceptable OpSec risk.

The agents who are in RF systems were probably already at their jobs before Houdini, or at least training to. Those were Inner Onion and they knew what they were doing.

ThinksMarkedly wrote: I still disagree. All Benign Alignment knows is that they've been singled out as the bad guys by the GA but no one in their numbers knows anything about the nefarious conspiracy the Manties keep talking about. And that someone bombed their planet. I agree they will put some things together soon and conclude that The Other Guys exist: those were active on Mesa and bombed their planet. But it's not immediately obvious that the Alignment they know was a pawn. Right now, most of them think that they're being framed, either maliciously by the GA or by some disinformation left by The Other Guys.

That's just it. The Manties are screaming bloody murder about "Other Guys." And they themselves know that they have been had by some "Other Guys." It seems to be a no-brainer that they should at least wonder if they are the same.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:There's no evidence that people whisked away by Houdini ended up in RF systems. All the discussion we heard about was about moving them to Darius. That's important because Darius is isolated in communication, so there's no possibility that one of them will try to reach out to a family member or leak information or board a freighter bound for another world. As you say, even if their family members don't recognise them, the reverse wouldn't be true. All of which is possible in any of the dozen RF systems, so that could be an unacceptable OpSec risk.

I didn't mean that they ended up in RF systems. At least not initially. They would have to be debriefed first before that could happen. I'm not even suggesting it would happen immediately. I'm saying that that seems to be the original plan that everyone will eventually end up in RF systems. After all, that is what the RF is for. To whisk everyone away from the freedom of the galaxy that they enjoyed on Mesa, spirit them away from friends and family, and then sentence them to live forever in an isolated system amongst castes and incompatible lines of people is a ruthless new low for the MA. These people will certainly resent that part of the plan even more that they surely already must. That would make them ALL prime candidates for defection. The MA seems to want to anger and alienate a lot of their people.

Also, this influx of people from Mesa cannot be allowed to mingle with the population of Darius who are ignorant in and of the ways of the galaxy. Which further separates and isolates the new arrivals. All of which are more ingredients to be added to a recipe for disaster.

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cthia wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Another thing the RF can use to hammer the GA about will be when the RoH and the SEM declare their union. Especially if, as in the thread on the expansion of the Empire, the empire does expand. Then the RF will call the imperialists and expansionists and that should give them an excuse to arm themselves.

I don't think that is a good idea. Oh, I think it would work on a lot of people. Some people can be force-fed shit if you place it between two slices of light bread.

The problem is that it sounds too much like the incoherent babbling of the once-mighty SL. The whole of the galaxy certainly knows the truth now about the RMN and its government. The RMN sowed too many good seeds that bore fruit in the galaxy. Seeds that continue to germinate with Henke. What that would end up doing is gobsmacking Beth and arousing the suspicions of ONI. They shouldn't force the issues.

Actually it just occurred to me while I was gathering wool over in the Wormhole Assault thread, that a successful campaign by the LDs upon the systems of the GA will be the perfect excuse for the RF to build, and build voraciously. The fear of imminent doom can jumpstart a lot of navies. Isn't that what fueled the navies of the entire galaxy? The MA really needs the LDs to have a very successful campaign. It would kill many birds with many invisible stones.

cthia wrote:That's just it. The Manties are screaming bloody murder about "Other Guys." And they themselves know that they have been had by some "Other Guys." It seems to be a no-brainer that they should at least wonder if they are the same.

I disagree. It's quite a leap of faith from "my secret organisation that is being blamed" to "my secret organisation was itself manipulated." Put yourself in the shoes of the Benign Alignment members left on Mesa: all you know is that you worked in secret to the betterment of your own genes because the rest of Humanity wouldn't understand you, and then all of a sudden last year (1922) the Manties started screaming that you were responsible for a stealth, sneak attack on their home system using weapons no one in the Galaxy had known about. Then someone bombs your planet just as the Manties are arriving. Since no one you know in this secret organisation (honestly!) has any idea about such plans, your first conclusion is that you're being framed. This secret organisation is, after all, a convenient scapegoat.

It's quite clear too that whoever is doing the framing was active on Mesa. They knew about the Alignment, after all, and the secrecy had been kept for centuries.

But to go from there to accepting that this secret organisation was founded by the same people that are now shouldering the blame on you and for their own reasons requires far more evidence. In their shoes, I'd apply the Sagan standard: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:I didn't mean that they ended up in RF systems. At least not initially. They would have to be debriefed first before that could happen. I'm not even suggesting it would happen immediately. I'm saying that that seems to be the original plan that everyone will eventually end up in RF systems. After all, that is what the RF is for. To whisk everyone away from the freedom of the galaxy that they enjoyed on Mesa, spirit them away from friends and family, and then sentence them to live forever in an isolated system amongst castes and incompatible lines of people is a ruthless new low for the MA. These people will certainly resent that part of the plan even more that they surely already must. That would make them ALL prime candidates for defection. The MA seems to want to anger and alienate a lot of their people.

I'm saying it isn't, at least not in the short or medium terms. The population sent to Darius is meant to stay on Darius at least until the secrecy of Darius is not required any more, meaning until the MAlign has won. And possibly never: even 100 years after winning, one of those people blabbing about the early days can reignite resentment from "the lower classes."

So, yes, I expect those people who were whisked away from their freedom in Mesa to be required to grow old and die of old age in their gilded cage of Darius. And yes, I agree with you that this is a recipe for resentment, which is why Darius must be a very comfortable cage for them.

Not defection, since they can't defect while there are no convenient ships to jump aboard. The only ships going out of Darius are MAN ships or MAN auxiliary (cargo). The personnel of the MAN was not subject to Houdini: they are either natives of Darius or they knowingly operated MAN ships to Darius before Houdini. They're probably also very closely monitored so they won't jump ship and they have suicide nanites in their bloodstream.

Also, this influx of people from Mesa cannot be allowed to mingle with the population of Darius who are ignorant in and of the ways of the galaxy. Which further separates and isolates the new arrivals. All of which are more ingredients to be added to a recipe for disaster.
.

Why would they be ignorant of the ways of the Galaxy? The news they receive is censored and massaged, definitely, but why would that translate to ignorance? And by the way, how is that different from the rest of the Galaxy?