Wormhole Assault: MA Style

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Yes, problems will have to be solved first for certain. We went over this in the ? thread, pp. 75-76. I didn't believe it would be a problem if they are managing to hit the broad side of a barn at its max range now. Anyway, I never got a chance to ask. Didn't TWTSNBN operate at even longer ranges?

No, it was about a light-second, which placed the ship using it well within the energy range of its target. This, more than anything else, is what killed TWTSNBN.

At any rate, the massive number crunching behemoth that I posited will be aboard the LDs can solve the problem. The behemoth can certainly coordinate the collective graser fire of the entire Wolfpack from orbit. Problem solved.

You can't solve the number-crunching problem if the problem is inherently random. By its very definition, it can't be predicted.

You can only fire more weapons in hope that something will hit. That argues for more weapons rather than longer range.

I understand what you're trying to say: in order to hold the planet, the LD has to hit the forces advancing upon it before they reach it. The problem is that holding a planet means being in close proximity to it, which limits the LD's own manoeuvres. Certain evasions simply aren't possible, unless they want to hit the atmosphere or splash on the planet. Meanwhile, the recovery forces can throw dozens of cruisers, a hundred DD, and a thousand LAC. Even a full wolfpack of LDs with an enormous quantity of grasers can't take out that many ships before some of them close to their energy range, regardless of whether the range is 15% or more or not. The relief force will come on a high-speed pass to minimise the time it is within the LDs' range but the LDs aren't in theirs.

No, either the presence of the LDs in orbit compels the defenders to surrender (Deneb Acords or not!) or they will have to have cleared the system first. They can't hold a planet against a relief force that large.

Not by themselves, at least. If they bring freighters that disgorge a million missile pods, that's another story. That's why a capital ship, even a squadron thereof, has escorts.

It can be predicted, it just cannot be "analyzed" without "artificial intelligence." After all, those are the same type of algorithms the Peep computer crunched to tear Honor's undies. The "artificial" in the equation is the human sixth sense. An "educated guess." I also once posited the MA grasers will be capable of firing many shots without overheating. The number-crunching alludes to the behemoth coordinating those guesses from a coordinated attack from Wolfpacks.

I agree that the GA will throw a lot of ships at dislodging the LDs from the orbitals, and they will drive hard to target to obtain that objective in the face of losses. After all, that is what the SL was tasked with doing. It is what the Peeps were tasked with doing. It is the tactic all navies once used, that of driving to energy range amidst incredulous losses.

At any rate, you are forgetting how important a system the MBS will be to the MA as a target. There will be more than one Wolfpack in the system. As soon as the orbitals have been seized, other packs will converge upon the planet in mutual support of the one or more packs tasked with securing the orbitals. I also posited stealthy support ships that will kick out all sorts of goodies. Moreover, the pack(s) that seize the orbitals will be configured to hold the orbitals. Those incoming GA ships will have a few toys from the ? thread to reckon with. Like those graser-impeller hybrids. Simply another educated guess.

All, if -- as you say -- the MA doesn't interpret the Deneb Accords to support their idea of controlling the orbitals.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Another thing: if the MAlign takes a planet, it has to occupy it with somewhat decency. If they begin massacring the population, that removes the incentive for anyone else to surrender. Any relief forces that find LDs in orbit will take the risk of hitting the planet rather than leave those LDs there.

That's why I don't think the LDs will try to hold a planet for occupation. The MAlign does not have the forces for that. At best, they can hold it hostage, but again there's a limit on how much you can mutilate your hostage. Once that Pandora's Box is opened, it can't be unopened either.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I don't think the MA will bother to even put troops on the planet. Why should they? Their options are different than any other conquerer because the conquered have no idea where to send reprisals. The MA will simply demand surrender from the Queen and compliance to their wishes. Their response if the MBS fails to comply, is a return visit where there will be no discussions (same as Honor threatened) and the only maneuvers will be to bombard the planet. Their version of the Salamander's ultimatum to Sol.

I admit to having no idea what the MA will demand if they are successful at controlling the orbitals ...

"We just want to live in peace and be allowed to meddle in genetics as we please? We want the Beowulf Code rescinded?"

cthia wrote:It can be predicted, it just cannot be "analyzed" without "artificial intelligence." After all, those are the same type of algorithms the Peep computer crunched to tear Honor's undies. The "artificial" in the equation is the human sixth sense. An "educated guess." I also once posited the MA grasers will be capable of firing many shots without overheating. The number-crunching alludes to the behemoth coordinating those guesses from a coordinated attack from Wolfpacks.

No, it can't be. That's the definition of "random." You can argue that the evasion manoeuvres aren't truly random, but only pseudo-random because computers are deterministic, but you should get that out of your head. Our computers today have true random number generators that aren't deterministic. It's a very neat solution: the computer doesn't try to generate the numbers, it actually measures something that is truly random (like static and Gaussian white noise, which are products of quantum processes) then use that to produce the numbers. It's all those sci-fi stories with fighters that need humans in the loop to add the true randomness that are wrong: humans aren't random. Take the following sequence of 15 numbers from 0 to 15: 11, 8, 6, 14, 9, 14, 5, 11, 3, 8, 15, 7, 14, 11, 10. Does it look random to you? Note how the numbers 11 and 14 repeat 3 times. Your impression, like most people's, might be that it doesn't look random, but our intuition is wrong. This is a truly random number sequence specifically because you can't predict the next one from the last.

What isn't random are the physical limitations of changing the ship's acceleration vector. We don't know how that works, but there is no known macrophysical process that can jump from one value to the next without going through the intermediary ones. We think the light comes on instantly when we flip the switch, but the electrical current and voltage have to rise from nothing to nominal and any RCL circuit will react with transients. This does put a limit on possible future positions of a ship, but 6 to 7.5 seconds is an eternity.

Anyway, the point is that it's not a matter of number-crunching. Once you have enough computing power (and you already do), more computing is not going to result in different or more accurate answers. At best, I would grant you that a bigger ship has a larger baseline to make measurements from, thus getting more accurate results and this does require more computing power. But it won't help predicting what can't be predicted.

At any rate, you are forgetting how important a system the MBS will be to the MA as a target. There will be more than one Wolfpack in the system. As soon as the orbitals have been seized, other packs will converge upon the planet in mutual support of the one or more packs tasked with securing the orbitals. I also posited stealthy support ships that will kick out all sorts of goodies. Moreover, the pack(s) that seize the orbitals will be configured to hold the orbitals. Those incoming GA ships will have a few toys from the ? thread to reckon with. Like those graser-impeller hybrids. Simply another educated guess.

You're not arguing against what I said. We are in agreement: you need to clear the rest of the system. Sitting in orbit while the enemy has you outnumbered 20:1 isn't a recipe for success, even if you outrange them in energy range.

Holding the planet doesn't buy you much in that, actually, unless you can compel a surrender. If you don't compel that, the enemy can remain outside your range and probe your defences, sending one LAC wing at a time. Each LD you reveal is one more that is added to the target list and a Ghost Rider is attached to. Each bit of information of the operational parameters of the LD is something in the GA's advantage.

Sending multiple squadrons to the same volume is the worst thing that the MAN could do.

cthia wrote:You took the words right out of my mouth. I don't think the MA will bother to even put troops on the planet. Why should they? Their options are different than any other conquerer because the conquered have no idea where to send reprisals. The MA will simply demand surrender from the Queen and compliance to their wishes. Their response if the MBS fails to comply, is a return visit where there will be no discussions (same as Honor threatened) and the only maneuvers will be to bombard the planet. Their version of the Salamander's ultimatum to Sol.

I admit to having no idea what the MA will demand if they are successful at controlling the orbitals ...

"We just want to live in peace and be allowed to meddle in genetics as we please? We want the Beowulf Code rescinded?"

That's the issue, isn't it? Why should they demand surrender of a planet? And if they have no reason for it, why gain the orbitals in the first place?

If they bombard the planet, they open the Pandora Box I mentioned. No one will negotiate with them for surrender. The next time they try to hold a planet, the defending forces will do everything to dislodge them, even putting the planet itself in peril from friendly fire.

Jonathan_S wrote:

cthia wrote:BTW, sonar was useless against surface ships, and U-boat commanders preferred surface attacks. How will David apply this analogue, if at all.

Depends on the sonar. Active sonar tended not to be useful against surface ships in WWII - especially from other surface ships - but passive sonar could and did work for that.

The Kriegsmarine specifically developed and used “Gruppenhorchgerät” (GHG) [group listening device] - a passive sonar hydrophone array running along the sides of the hull - as passive protection on their capital ships (large cruisers and battleships) to listen for torpedoes or approaching enemy warships.

IIRC during the failed breakout of the Bismarck one or the other of the German ships at various times detected the closing RN forces.


U-Boats also carried a version of this GHG. And I know at least the US fleet subs also carried passive hydrophones which could be used to listen to the activity of nearby surface ships. I assume everybody's subs by WWII had hydrophones of some level of sensitivity that could be used for this.


Still - that historical sonar info tells us nothing about whether the Honorverse will develop some sonar equivalent to detect spider ships.

Sure thing. But it was meant as an aside. Mostly. Since submarine warfare is the bailiwick of LDs. Some analogies simply won't fit, but I find it interesting to look for appropriate analogies like a puzzle. For instance, upstream I revisited the tactic of the wolfpack and how they preferred attacking while surfaced because sonar at the time couldn't see them while surfaced. "Surfaced," for an LD could be when it shuts down its stealth. While "surfaced" will they still be detected by systems scanning for their systems if they are far enough away? They will certainly be seen without stealth if they are close, as will a sub when surfaced.

cthia wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Depends on the sonar. Active sonar tended not to be useful against surface ships in WWII - especially from other surface ships - but passive sonar could and did work for that.

The Kriegsmarine specifically developed and used “Gruppenhorchgerät” (GHG) [group listening device] - a passive sonar hydrophone array running along the sides of the hull - as passive protection on their capital ships (large cruisers and battleships) to listen for torpedoes or approaching enemy warships.

IIRC during the failed breakout of the Bismarck one or the other of the German ships at various times detected the closing RN forces.


U-Boats also carried a version of this GHG. And I know at least the US fleet subs also carried passive hydrophones which could be used to listen to the activity of nearby surface ships. I assume everybody's subs by WWII had hydrophones of some level of sensitivity that could be used for this.


Still - that historical sonar info tells us nothing about whether the Honorverse will develop some sonar equivalent to detect spider ships.

Sure thing. But it was meant as an aside. Mostly. Since submarine warfare is the bailiwick of LDs. Some analogies simply won't fit, but I find it interesting to look for appropriate analogies like a puzzle. For instance, upstream I revisited the tactic of the wolfpack and how they preferred attacking while surfaced because sonar at the time couldn't see them while surfaced. "Surfaced," for an LD could be when it shuts down its stealth. While "surfaced" will they still be detected by systems scanning for their systems if they are far enough away? They will certainly be seen without stealth if they are close, as will a sub when surfaced.

Wolfpacks also preferred to attack on the surface because, due to the technology of the time, subs were over twice as fast on the surface and had much better endurance there. But that doesn't apply to Lenny Dets. So surfacing seems like it'd be a bad analogy to try to apply to them - they don't get the tactical maneuver advantage historic Wolfpacks did and they become more visible to the most common sensors rather than less. (Of course even a bit later in WWII most convoy escorts now had radar as well as sonar and a surfaced sub was now more easily detected than a submerged one - making the speed advantage the only remaining benefit to surfacing)

A typical German U-Boat, a type VII, could make less than 8 knots submerged - and at that high speed would deplete its batteries in only a couple hours. But on the surface it could use its more powerful diesel engines and make 17.7 knots. Even a slow WWII convoy was at least as fast as a submerged type VII - making it very hard to intercept if the sub stayed submerged.

But again the adopted their tactic of (night) surface attack due to specific limitations that existed in sensor technology and propulsion at that point in time. As those specific limitations simply don't apply to the Lenny Dets we shouldn't expect LD tactics to mirror the surface attack tactics that were imposed by limitations the LDs don't suffer.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:The problem there is that it takes a lot of resources to overwhelm the GA and the League. Unlike the original plan, those are actually strong. The SLN will even be deploying pod-layers in three years' time and will have an evolution on Cataphracts pretty soon. And I don't see the MAlign marshalling sufficient resources in the time before the curve tilts in favour of their enemies.

Not as I see it. The MA only has to be successful at bringing Haven and Manticore to their knees. And if the fleet of LDs is successful, that will be accomplished. And if the LDs are successful, fear will substitute just fine in the place of hulls and heavy metal. What happened to Manticore and Haven will be an object lesson to the rest of the galaxy. The SL should be the last organ with the stomach to resist.

Actually, I posited some time ago that the SL can begin to rebuild their image by being the final system to join the GA. After the GA has suffered a major setback would be the right time to do so. Will the whole of the GA find itself in the same shoes in which Manticore did after Oyster Bay and their impending confrontation with the SL? Only to be saved by the SL, as Haven has saved Manticore's bacon? Will lightning strike twice in the same place in such a huge galaxy? Who says that the Demon Murphy has no sense of humor.

cthia wrote:Not as I see it. The MA only has to be successful at bringing Haven and Manticore to their knees. And if the fleet of LDs is successful, that will be accomplished. And if the LDs are successful, fear will substitute just fine in the place of hulls and heavy metal. What happened to Manticore and Haven will be an object lesson to the rest of the galaxy. The SL should be the last organ with the stomach to resist.

That's not sufficient. I agree that the fear factor should be sufficient to cower SL politicians into not resisting, but I doubt the same can be said about the remaining GA members. If you take out Manitcore and Haven, that leaves Grayson, Beowulf, and the Andermani, who are about half of the GF. I really doubt those would yield -- quite the opposite, actually. No, the attacks need to be in a bigger scale than Oyster Bay. They have to get at least all the capital worlds.

Actually, I posited some time ago that the SL can begin to rebuild their image by being the final system to join the GA. After the GA has suffered a major setback would be the right time to do so. Will the whole of the GA find itself in the same shoes in which Manticore did after Oyster Bay and their impending confrontation with the SL? Only to be saved by the SL, as Haven has saved Manticore's bacon? Will lightning strike twice in the same place in such a huge galaxy? Who says that the Demon Murphy has no sense of humor.

Interesting thought. Yes, in a few years' time, which is the minimum required for an LD attack in the first place, the SL industry should be of sufficient quality to support GA needs. So yeah, that's a possibility.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:Not as I see it. The MA only has to be successful at bringing Haven and Manticore to their knees. And if the fleet of LDs is successful, that will be accomplished. And if the LDs are successful, fear will substitute just fine in the place of hulls and heavy metal. What happened to Manticore and Haven will be an object lesson to the rest of the galaxy. The SL should be the last organ with the stomach to resist.

That's not sufficient. I agree that the fear factor should be sufficient to cower SL politicians into not resisting, but I doubt the same can be said about the remaining GA members. If you take out Manitcore and Haven, that leaves Grayson, Beowulf, and the Andermani, who are about half of the GF. I really doubt those would yield -- quite the opposite, actually. No, the attacks need to be in a bigger scale than Oyster Bay. They have to get at least all the capital worlds.

Actually, I posited some time ago that the SL can begin to rebuild their image by being the final system to join the GA. After the GA has suffered a major setback would be the right time to do so. Will the whole of the GA find itself in the same shoes in which Manticore did after Oyster Bay and their impending confrontation with the SL? Only to be saved by the SL, as Haven has saved Manticore's bacon? Will lightning strike twice in the same place in such a huge galaxy? Who says that the Demon Murphy has no sense of humor.

Interesting thought. Yes, in a few years' time, which is the minimum required for an LD attack in the first place, the SL industry should be of sufficient quality to support GA needs. So yeah, that's a possibility.

The fear factor alone wouldn't be the problem. The problem is the efficacy of the demonstration strikes provided by the B-52s, err, the LDs. The ultimatum issued by the MA which mirrors the warning Honor presented to the SL that there will be no more "demonstration strikes" if her demands go unheeded -- plus the fact that the GA still don't know the location of Darius -- will do it.

The US had to demonstrate the effectiveness of its nuclear weapons to the Japanese before they would surrender. Seeing is believing.

The weakness of an Alliance is that the enemy may see you as one big obstacle. If the MA defeats the two biggest kids on the block, and vows to do the same to anyone who resists without hesitation or discussion, what logically can be done? Suicide is not becoming of a superpower. The Andermani, Grayson and Beowulf have an obligation to their people. Protector Benjamin certainly can't "protect" anyone who will soon be dead.

Since the Alliance is formed by Grayson, Manticore and Haven -- while in orbit of the nexus of the GA -- the MA may demand they all lay down their weapons and rescind the Beowulf Code. If the ultimatum is the same as what Honor issued, "Or we will return and ask no questions and take no prisoners. Your planets will be destroyed."

What other alternative exists in the face of destruction? That question was answered by the SL, and by the Japanese.

There is no alternative but to die.

Unless!, the GA can pull an Oscar (Saint-Just) performance out of their hat, stall for time and make good use of that time. That is a big IF since it is predicated on neutralizing MA stealth and finding Darius.

If either member of the GA fail to honor their terms of surrender before Tester and the galaxy, planetary bombardment is justified.

Under those stark realities, what alternatives do you see?

Resistance is futile. And irresponsible!

cthia wrote:The fear factor alone wouldn't be the problem. The problem is the efficacy of the demonstration strikes provided by the B-52s, err, the LDs. The ultimatum issued by the MA which mirrors the warning Honor presented to the SL that there will be no more "demonstration strikes" if her demands go unheeded -- plus the fact that the GA still don't know the location of Darius -- will do it.

Or a closer case: Operation Buttercup or the Apollo missiles.

The efficacy of the ultimatum depends on how effective those attacks are and how difficult it is to counter them. We don't know. We're speculating and for the past year or two, our opinions here differ by quite a lot.

If the MAlign can deliver a Short Victorious War, then game over. Quite clearly, it won't be the case, otherwise the books wouldn't be enjoyable. That means we have one of two possibilities: either the attacks happen but can be further blocked or they don't happen at all. Ok, third case: an attack is attempted but fails.

The weakness of an Alliance is that the enemy may see you as one big obstacle. If the MA defeats the two biggest kids on the block, and vows to do the same to anyone who resists without hesitation or discussion, what logically can be done? Suicide is not becoming of a superpower. The Andermani, Grayson and Beowulf have an obligation to their people. Protector Benjamin certainly can't "protect" anyone who will soon be dead.

But if they won't be dead and he can protect them, he will. So will the Gustav Anderman & Herzog Rabenstrage. And there's simply no way that Beowulf will stand down.

Since the Alliance is formed by Grayson, Manticore and Haven -- while in orbit of the nexus of the GA -- the MA may demand they all lay down their weapons and rescind the Beowulf Code. If the ultimatum is the same as what Honor issued, "Or we will return and ask no questions and take no prisoners. Your planets will be destroyed."

"Resistance is futile?" We've seen that before and we know how it ended.

What other alternative exists in the face of destruction? That question was answered by the SL, and by the Japanese.

Unless!, the GA can pull an Oscar (Saint-Just) performance out of their hat, stall for time and make good use of that time. That is a big IF since it is predicated on neutralizing MA stealth and finding Darius.

I think we can be assured that there will be something to pave the way for The Good Guys winning.