cthia wrote:Jonathan_S wrote:Um, I don't see anything in Saint-Just's musings about how it might have played out if he'd gotten everyone. So you seem to be disagreeing with something he didn't say/think...
He mused about "If he'd gotten Elizabeth and Benjamin but not Cromarty".
and he mused about "But by killing Cromarty and leaving Elizabeth alive"
And of those 2 options the only one that could open a door to avoiding a rapid outright defeat was killing Cromarty and triggering the fall of his Centrist government.
That's my point. I think he should have wanted and mused about getting them all. I really think there was a good chance the Alliance would have crumbled. Remember, both Beth and Benjy was fighting with factions of their own government to keep the Alliance going. Benjy pretty much strong armed his government, he wielded that type of power. Without him, who would have fought, successfully, to continue the Alliance with heathens? Especially in the face of High Ridge. Then Benjamin's opposition would have been situated perfectly to stick it to Honor. That mission was meant to solidify the Alliance, because it needed it. That Alliance also needed Beth and Benjy. I remember a conversation which draws out the ease Benjamin had keeping his government in line compared to the Queen. But any replacement Protector would not have enjoyed that much power which Benjamin gained by underhanded tactics. At any rate, I wiped my brow when Beth and Benjy survived, because the Alliance may have been doomed. That's why I questioned the assassination's success. I thought it was why Beth and Benjy were targeted in the first place. They were the very wind beneath the Alliance's wings.
Isn't Benjamin's younger brother Michael likely to end up as effectively a regent (though probably called something else) for the young Bernard Raoul Mayhew?
Grayson as a whole seem very unlikely to just turn the other cheek to an enemy that just assassinated their ruler - that's likely to make them
more determined to push on to total victory. And even less likely to break an alliance over a shared tragedy.
I guess if everyone dies then maybe, maybe Mueller's role in the assassination might not come out so soon. But it's still likely that the most prominent figure in the opposition is about to be exposed as a traitor and executed.
And third, the Keys literally do not have the power to break the alliance. So even if a majority of them changed their minds about supporting the war or the alliance the Protector still has the ultimate say and I can't see the protector-regent (again presumably Benjamin's brother) letting Haven go unpunished for his murder.
About the only way I could see the alliance fracture would be if they broke it in order to unilaterally reject the ceasefire Manticore was accepting; to have the GSN go impose unconditional surrender on Haven. Because they'd be that must more enraged -- guess that'd have Saint Just making out like a properly tried and executed bandit
But it's also possible that with Elizabeth dead King Roger and a new Centrist Prime Minister could leverage the extra outrage that should produce to hold enough of Cromarty's allied together and prevent the Centrist government from falling. Replacing, for a time, personal loyalty to Cromarty with determination to finish punishing Haven. They only have to hold on for maybe 6 months and if they fall after the surrender then that delayed High Ridge government can't stress the alliance or play ceasefire games they way they did historically.
So I'm far from convinced that getting the two leaders would actually have improved the outcome for Saint Just, or at least for Haven in general.
