Andermani strategic blunder in 1905 PD?

tlb wrote:It is hard to reconcile what you say Parliament should do, with what it actually did. If the Lords were that reasonable, then the High Ridge coalition would have failed; but that is not what happened. High Ridge and his political allies stood firm then and there is no reason to assume that they would not stand firm under this situation as well.

I hope that you do not think that there would be a mutiny? I say that he could and would close the Junction to any attempt to break the ceasefire, simply because the internal politics of Manticore are more important to him and his coalition members than the feelings of the allies, which also include Erewhon (not just Grayson).

Erls wrote:This is actually pretty easy to reconcile.

Let's go back to WWII, after the Atomic Bombs but before the Japanese surrendered. If, at that time, the Phillipines or Chinese had demanded that we keep going until Japan is invaded and conquered (or every city destroyed), it would have been pretty easy Truman and the Senate to shrug and accept the surrender. IF, however, a combination of Britain, France, Canada, and the Soviet Union had all demanded that Japan be invaded and conquered (or every city destroyed), it would have been a lot tougher call to make.

And then take it a step further, instead of an unconditional surrender Japan instead had sought a ceasefire to negotiate final terms. Had this happened, with Washington's largest allies demanding the war continue until complete victory, I don't see how Truman doesn't keep dropping bombs until complete victory.

The point is that it is really easy to tell Grayson at the end of the first war to pound sand. It would have been a lot tougher to tell that to the Andermani, especially if the Andermani had gotten Manty tech.

I think the likely outcome of that is that High Ridge would be able to stall for a year - tops - while Janacek (slowly) resupplies 8th Fleet and makes sure everyone gets a couple months of shore leave. At that point, if the Andermani are still demanding that the job gets finished High Ridge would have had to allowed the Andermani (and Grayson) free use of the junction at the very least. More likely he would have ended up negotiating to put one of his cronies in overall command of a fleet that was 1/3rd or less Manty. At least here he could stretch out the war-time taxes and other programs for every possible day.

In the case of WW2, the major allies had already agreed that nothing less than unconditional surrender would be accepted. After the difficult and bloody invasion of Okinawa, Truman authorized the use of atomic bombs as preferable to invasion of the main Japanese home islands. If the other allies had demanded an invasion, they would have had to contribute a substantial percentage of the landing forces, a more likely outcome would have been the construction and use of more atomic bombs.

Now could Truman have accepted less than the full unconditional surrender? Actually it is possible, but it is unlikely to be presented that way. A hand shake and an under the table deal could have done things like preserving the rule of the Emperor when MacArthur administered Japan, for instance.

I do not see how much harder it would be for High Ridge to tell the Andermani what they told the other allies in the book. Unless you think the Andermani would actually fight Manticore for the opportunity to conquer Haven. I think the Andermani are too realistic to do that and expect they would withdraw from the Alliance and work on implementing the new technology in their fleet. After the fall of High Ridge they would be much more demanding in Silesia than they were in the book.

Again, you're missing my point. High Ridge could certainly have done whatever he wanted to do. The question is whether all of the members in the House of Lords that did not support High Ridge's policies - but supported him to keep their prerogatives - would have continued to do so if he risked alienating the Andermani and blowing up relations in Silesia (at the very least).

The question is this: What the Andermani raising a massive diplomatic shitstorm over High Ridge's plans have resulted in the Lords who had support Cromarty but switched to High Ridge after Cromarty's death reconsidering their support? If the answer to that is yes among any number of them, then all of a sudden High Ridge is at risk of losing a vote of No Confidence. Ergo, he has to placate the Andermani in order to keep their size and power (and goodwill) from eroding his base of support.

Erls wrote:Again, you're missing my point. High Ridge could certainly have done whatever he wanted to do. The question is whether all of the members in the House of Lords that did not support High Ridge's policies - but supported him to keep their prerogatives - would have continued to do so if he risked alienating the Andermani and blowing up relations in Silesia (at the very least).

The question is this: What the Andermani raising a massive diplomatic shitstorm over High Ridge's plans have resulted in the Lords who had support Cromarty but switched to High Ridge after Cromarty's death reconsidering their support? If the answer to that is yes among any number of them, then all of a sudden High Ridge is at risk of losing a vote of No Confidence. Ergo, he has to placate the Andermani in order to keep their size and power (and goodwill) from eroding his base of support.

That is a reasonable and unknowable point. An important consideration is that St Just only offered the ceasefire because he knew that Haven was losing and High Ridge could only accept the offer because he and his coalition knew that Haven was losing. This means that they could present themselves as agents of peace, sitting down to talk as a way to prevent more deaths; while secure in the favorable outcome for Manticore (and incidentally the allies). Clearly anyone who opposed this was unreasonably demanding that more people die.

A hidden part of the agenda could be that the political coalition did not want more worlds liberated, like San Martin; because that might result in more unwanted worlds clamoring to be part of Manticore. This would be both because the new people would not have the correct viewpoints to be elevated to the peerage and because of a distaste for imperialism (which makes the Talbot Quadrant a bitter joke on the government).

If the Andermani decide to come into the Alliance before the assination, then the entire dynamics shift. The question is when.
If they agree before Barnett is taken then there is a whole lot more than just the squadrons of SDs that are going to come along. All those below-the-wall ships also for support.

So does White Haven attack Barnett or does he shift and do something that isn't going to be expected. 80 SD...and relevent support. Humm......How about take MOST of 8th Fleet and go hit HAVEN directly and use the 80 Andermani plus support and a number fo RMN CLACs and others to essentilay throw a granade into Barnett on an almost drive-by and hammer the fleet there while the main force -8th Fleet drives right into haven.
No, I can't tell you what is at Haven but if you take Haven the war is essentially over. A lot of what is around Haven heavily SS Navy so some of that quantity is more lacking in quality. Oh, they may fight like cornered rats but perhaps not as well. Is it worth the gamble?
Well, quite possibly. Barnett has a lot of ships and is a major base. You probably want that eliminated but you don't actualy have to take it, just inflict serious harm and hang meancingly off of it and keep throwing things ballistically at the military orbital infrastruccture. Lets say you only send 40 Aldermani SD (and support ships) and enough RMN ships to make essentialy a glase of RMN presence and participation. Barnett Base has to honor the threat and if the survivors of the initial attack don't abandon the base- they won't know Haven is being attacked- then they are out of play probably until news of the surrender of Haven arrives along with the order to stand down.
Does St. Just survive. Possibly not. But if the Home Fleet is defeated then he's going to end up either dead or a prisoner. A certain Peep Admiral in command of the Home Fleet is probably not going to fight to the last ship if White Haven comes over the wall with the 8th fleet, does even close to what was descrived in the actual time-line at Barnett and and calls on Haven to surrender. That will be a problem with the SS but I suspect war porn wouldn't be part of it. Just a very messy civli war under the guns of the enemy.

What will the Andermani want out of all of this? Probably some agreement about an area of Silesia. The Prime Minister and the Queen would probably go along with that even if it was to not object to the IAE "pacifying" some of the more agegeous systems in the area. It wouldn't make much difference if they were places already in revolt against the Confederation or Independent ones that were being pirate havens or other major problems.

Would the SL get involved? My guess is probably not. Why? It's Silesia, it's a mess, it has been a mess for a long time and the SL isn't exactly next door. Oh, they did have Erwhon as a treaty partner but that apparently was ended before Barnett- remember that there were Erwhonese Navy personel being sent with other alliance people to Hades. And we later discover that Erwhon had made the decision to join the alliance and drop the treaty with the SL as Haven WAS a threat to Erwhon and they would have been the list to be added to PRH. So, If Erwhon opted out of a treaty with SL and it had no consequences (like OFS showing up to "solve their problem") then why would they deal with yet another neobarb problem out in Silesia where the IAE would essentilay stopping 1(ongoing messy multiheaded civil war the Confederacey couldn't handle and 2) crushing pirates. Way far away from the League. Infact, way far away from the Leage beyond two neobarb starnations that had the 2nd and 3rd larges navies in the known universe and had been fighting for almost 10 years


Remember, this is pre-Barnett. The assasination is not likely to happen and High Ridge does't get to form a government - and Honor has one fewer medal and death ride to her credit.


Manticore knows the Andermani want to expand and the options are somewhat limited. The Duke of Comarty as PM is an astute polticitian and the Queen is as well. They don't have to do more than agree that Manticore isn't going to forcefully object (they may deplore) of IAE cleaning up some of the trouble out there. We do see Manticore comming around to that eventualy and splitting the Confederacy with IAE---and still the SL did nothing.
We also don't know where the diplomatic situation actualy was prior to the Comarty Assination because things don't get bad till post assination and High Ridge.

Intersting speculation.

High Ridge can do what he wants. The other combatants can continue the war. I'll point out that Haven is totally incapable of striking at Andy planets, and due to a number of factors (like the remarkably large number of Haven ships lost there) probably won't go directly after Grayson. So who will they go after?

Brigade XO wrote:So does White Haven attack Barnett or does he shift and do something that isn't going to be expected. 80 SD...and relevent support. Humm......How about take MOST of 8th Fleet and go hit HAVEN directly and use the 80 Andermani plus support and a number fo RMN CLACs and others to essentilay throw a granade into Barnett on an almost drive-by and hammer the fleet there while the main force -8th Fleet drives right into haven.

He wouldn't do that because he didn't have the mentality for it. There were still no deep strikes into enemy territory at this point. Operation Buttercup started at Barnett and proceeded slowly through Havenite space until the cease-fire for no good reason.

Eighth Fleet had the firepower to take Haven, if it wanted to. And it did not need to wait either. Maybe they'd still strike at Barnett first to ensure that the new hardware actually work as expected, but once that is done, he could simply fly to Haven and demand Saint-Just's surrender. Before or after blowing up Capital Fleet (with Theisman inside) is Saint-Just's call. Or Theisman's. But either way, if Eighth Fleet drops in on the system, it leaves with Haven's surrender.

I'm saying this to point out that having 80 more wallers, whether pod-laying or not, wouldn't make a difference. White Haven was still a product of his upbringing and experience and would conquer systems so as to not leave enemy forces behind him. The fact that there's no "behind" in space is not a consideration to him.

No, I can't tell you what is at Haven but if you take Haven the war is essentially over. A lot of what is around Haven heavily SS Navy so some of that quantity is more lacking in quality. Oh, they may fight like cornered rats but perhaps not as well. Is it worth the gamble?

Certainly there were SS units, especially after McQueen's coup attempt and Pierre's death, but the majority of the defence must have been Capital Fleet. Whatever SS units were there were quickly subdued by Capital Fleet under Theisman when he launched his coup.

And Theisman is no fool. If Eighth Fleet arrives, he's likely to surrender to White Haven in spite of Saint-Just's orders to the contrary. Or launch his coup at that point, then surrender.

Does St. Just survive. Possibly not. But if the Home Fleet is defeated then he's going to end up either dead or a prisoner. A certain Peep Admiral in command of the Home Fleet is probably not going to fight to the last ship if White Haven comes over the wall with the 8th fleet, does even close to what was descrived in the actual time-line at Barnett and and calls on Haven to surrender. That will be a problem with the SS but I suspect war porn wouldn't be part of it. Just a very messy civli war under the guns of the enemy.

Agreed.

What will the Andermani want out of all of this? Probably some agreement about an area of Silesia. The Prime Minister and the Queen would probably go along with that even if it was to not object to the IAE "pacifying" some of the more agegeous systems in the area. It wouldn't make much difference if they were places already in revolt against the Confederation or Independent ones that were being pirate havens or other major problems.

Now that's a good question: what were the Andermani asking for in order to join the fight? I suspect that they were talking to the Cromarty Government on this and had their wishes made known (though probably through unofficial channels). If their price was all of Silesia, it's likely that Cromarty told them the RMN would increase patrols in Silesia while getting rid of the Peeps at the same time.

At this point, I'm not sure even half of Silesia was an acceptable price.

So if the Andermani join the Alliance without the deal in place, they can't ask for Silesia after the war is finished. They can open new negotiations.

Would the SL get involved? My guess is probably not. Why? It's Silesia, it's a mess, it has been a mess for a long time and the SL isn't exactly next door. Oh, they did have Erwhon as a treaty partner but that apparently was ended before Barnett- remember that there were Erwhonese Navy personel being sent with other alliance people to Hades. And we later discover that Erwhon had made the decision to join the alliance and drop the treaty with the SL as Haven WAS a threat to Erwhon and they would have been the list to be added to PRH. So, If Erwhon opted out of a treaty with SL and it had no consequences (like OFS showing up to "solve their problem") then why would they deal with yet another neobarb problem out in Silesia where the IAE would essentilay stopping 1(ongoing messy multiheaded civil war the Confederacey couldn't handle and 2) crushing pirates. Way far away from the League. Infact, way far away from the Leage beyond two neobarb starnations that had the 2nd and 3rd larges navies in the known universe and had been fighting for almost 10 years

Yeah, they're just neobarbs fighting each other. Beneath the League's attention, unless something they really wanted was dangled in front of them (a wormhole). Even then, the SL might simply let the fighting go on, with all combatants exhausting themselves, and the inevitability of League expansion simply took care of that.

PS: IAE = Imperial Andermani Empire? Imperial Empires are kind of redundant, like Republican Republics and Royal Kingdoms.

Remember, this is pre-Barnett. The assasination is not likely to happen and High Ridge does't get to form a government - and Honor has one fewer medal and death ride to her credit.

Why wouldn't it happen? I don't remember if Operation Hassan was authorised before Operation Buttercup executed, but either way, if Saint-Just was cornered, he would launch it.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Brigade XO wrote:Remember, this is pre-Barnett. The assasination is not likely to happen and High Ridge does't get to form a government - and Honor has one fewer medal and death ride to her credit.

Why wouldn't it happen? I don't remember if Operation Hassan was authorised before Operation Buttercup executed, but either way, if Saint-Just was cornered, he would launch it.

IIRC, Saint-Just had prepared the operation well before Buttercup launched, but Pierre told him not to use it.

Whether Barnett is attacked or not is irrelevant. The Cromarty assassination's true trigger was Pierre's death - when McQueen's coup left Saint-Just in charge, one of the first things he did was activate Hassan.

But if the IAN had joined the war as far back as 1906, I suspect the Allies would reach Trevor's Star earlier than 1911. Result: McQueen is killed in action or shot for losing.

Mind you, that may mean the Leveler uprising wipes out Pierre and his Committee. I have no idea what happens next - the Levellers wanted to shoot everyone above the rank of Major/Lt. Commander.

munroburton wrote:
IIRC, Saint-Just had prepared the operation well before Buttercup launched, but Pierre told him not to use it.

Whether Barnett is attacked or not is irrelevant. The Cromarty assassination's true trigger was Pierre's death - when McQueen's coup left Saint-Just in charge, one of the first things he did was activate Hassan.

But if the IAN had joined the war as far back as 1906, I suspect the Allies would reach Trevor's Star earlier than 1911. Result: McQueen is killed in action or shot for losing.

Mind you, that may mean the Leveler uprising wipes out Pierre and his Committee. I have no idea what happens next - the Levellers wanted to shoot everyone above the rank of Major/Lt. Commander.

Another point - we probably would not see podlayers, CLACS, super LACs, and MDMs if the Andermani joined early.

The increased, continual pressure on Haven and polite relations with the Andermani means a "peaceful" Silesia, requiring no Wayfarer testbeds to fight piracy without using escorts. Winning, overwhelming conventional forces means no research in breakthrough technologies with long payoffs, which in turn means no podlayers in 1913 - because the war would probably be over and they are not needed. Post-war? Tech funding would be dropped and any upgrades would be coming in fits and spurts - not a flow of slowly modernizing tech. No peace dividend to research the wormhole. No Talbot annexation. No Losses to Byng. No war with the SLN.

munroburton wrote:IIRC, Saint-Just had prepared the operation well before Buttercup launched, but Pierre told him not to use it.

Whether Barnett is attacked or not is irrelevant. The Cromarty assassination's true trigger was Pierre's death - when McQueen's coup left Saint-Just in charge, one of the first things he did was activate Hassan.

But if the IAN had joined the war as far back as 1906, I suspect the Allies would reach Trevor's Star earlier than 1911. Result: McQueen is killed in action or shot for losing.

Mind you, that may mean the Leveler uprising wipes out Pierre and his Committee. I have no idea what happens next - the Levellers wanted to shoot everyone above the rank of Major/Lt. Commander.

Theemile wrote:Another point - we probably would not see podlayers, CLACS, super LACs, and MDMs if the Andermani joined early.

The increased, continual pressure on Haven and polite relations with the Andermani means a "peaceful" Silesia, requiring no Wayfarer testbeds to fight piracy without using escorts. Winning, overwhelming conventional forces means no research in breakthrough technologies with long payoffs, which in turn means no podlayers in 1913 - because the war would probably be over and they are not needed. Post-war? Tech funding would be dropped and any upgrades would be coming in fits and spurts - not a flow of slowly modernizing tech. No peace dividend to research the wormhole. No Talbot annexation. No Losses to Byng. No war with the SLN.

This situation might not suit the Mesan Alignment, even though it means their plans do not get rushed and the SLN would be better positioned for a fight of mutual exhaustion and destruction.

At what point was the short story set that gave the inspiration for FTL communication?

tlb wrote:

Theemile wrote:Another point - we probably would not see podlayers, CLACS, super LACs, and MDMs if the Andermani joined early.

The increased, continual pressure on Haven and polite relations with the Andermani means a "peaceful" Silesia, requiring no Wayfarer testbeds to fight piracy without using escorts. Winning, overwhelming conventional forces means no research in breakthrough technologies with long payoffs, which in turn means no podlayers in 1913 - because the war would probably be over and they are not needed. Post-war? Tech funding would be dropped and any upgrades would be coming in fits and spurts - not a flow of slowly modernizing tech. No peace dividend to research the wormhole. No Talbot annexation. No Losses to Byng. No war with the SLN.

This situation might not suit the Mesan Alignment, even though it means their plans do not get rushed and the SLN would be better positioned for a fight of mutual exhaustion and destruction.

At what point was the short story set that gave the inspiration for FTL communication?

Between OBS and HoS - Honor had her Fearless CA in the short Story (With One Stone), and a Drone with very primitive FTL was in HoQ. HoQ starts the advanced compensator research seen in SVW.

So in this 1920, Manticore still has FTL comms, Adv. Comps, and Pods (also introduced in SVW)- though probably not as advanced as we see them in the book storyline.