How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

cthia wrote:If Haven had successfully seduced Grayson, that may have been a start.

tlb wrote:After recently rereading HotQ, it does not appear that Haven ever had a chance to do that. Manticore was closer, had better stuff and could be depended to not take over; so Haven had to go for the Zealots instead.

cthia wrote:We, I, know only after the fact that they didn't have a chance. As I remember it though, the author had ME on pins and needles about it. IINM, Grayson's main worry was whether the SK could hold out against the much larger Haven itself. And if they can't, Grayson would be next out of spite, if nothing else, and things would be much harder. The main point was that since Haven was in the running at all made it anything but an open and shut case. IMO. Perhaps 72% SK?

You just had a reread, am I right?

Yeltsin and Endicott were in the direct path between Haven and Manticore; so the Grayson worry was not whether Manticore could hold out, it was whether Haven would capture Grayson as a prelude to the main attack. A battle at Yeltsin was one of the two opening campaigns of the war. Grayson chose the only option that had a chance of preventing a takeover by Haven.

cthia wrote:We, I, know only after the fact that they didn't have a chance. As I remember it though, the author had ME on pins and needles about it. IINM, Grayson's main worry was whether the SK could hold out against the much larger Haven itself. And if they can't, Grayson would be next out of spite, if nothing else, and things would be much harder. The main point was that since Haven was in the running at all made it anything but an open and shut case. IMO. Perhaps 72% SK?

You just had a reread, am I right?

Why did Haven have to ally with Grayson in the first place? A BC with some CL/DD for escort would have destroyed the GSN if they had gone in to Yeltsin in 1902 and the GSN wouldn't have been able to scratch their paint let alone actually do something about it.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Which of these people you've listed has ever won on a real engagement against Honor, much less captured her?

Chin wasn't even tied, Honor had one up on her.

Your argument was that they would have stuck to Giscard because he was the best admiral. Says who? Maybe Tourville is indeed a better strategist and tactician and that's why the operation was given to him.

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Keeping the one person who during this current war managed to defeat 8th Fleet away from Beatrice is ridiculous, there is one chance in 30 that she would have had hit his system and there was 100% chance that BoM would have been decisive, so keeping your top commander in a defensive operation that is not decisive and sending your #2 and #3 to command the operation would have been a terrible idea.

During the last days of the 1st war with Manticore Giscard was in command of 12th Fleet and Tourville was his 2IC, during Thunderbolt Tourville got a sideshow and 12 SD(P)'s while Giscard got the main show and 100 SD(P)'s. I think that proves who was the number 1 and who was the number 2.

They have plenty of capable deputies who can command an ambush, because the whole point was to outnumber the enemy and surprise them, sending your two best commanders on the operation that would win or lose the war for you would have been the smarter option.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Which of these people you've listed has ever won on a real engagement against Honor, much less captured her?

Chin wasn't even tied, Honor had one up on her.

Your argument was that they would have stuck to Giscard because he was the best admiral. Says who? Maybe Tourville is indeed a better strategist and tactician and that's why the operation was given to him.

Sigs wrote:Keeping the one person who during this current war managed to defeat 8th Fleet away from Beatrice is ridiculous, there is one chance in 30 that she would have had hit his system and there was 100% chance that BoM would have been decisive, so keeping your top commander in a defensive operation that is not decisive and sending your #2 and #3 to command the operation would have been a terrible idea.

During the last days of the 1st war with Manticore Giscard was in command of 12th Fleet and Tourville was his 2IC, during Thunderbolt Tourville got a sideshow and 12 SD(P)'s while Giscard got the main show and 100 SD(P)'s. I think that proves who was the number 1 and who was the number 2.

They have plenty of capable deputies who can command an ambush, because the whole point was to outnumber the enemy and surprise them, sending your two best commanders on the operation that would win or lose the war for you would have been the smarter option.

Before Lovat, it was not clear that they would execute Beatrice; after Lovat it was imperative. When Giscard was defending Lovat, they thought that he could defeat Honor again. Anyway Tourville had captured Honor, so the difference between the two was not as clear as you state.

At All Costs, chapter 62:

It should have been Javier Giscard's command, he thought. Javier should have had Second Fleet and overall command, while he had Fifth, but Javier was gone, and so the task had fallen to him.

Sigs wrote:Keeping the one person who during this current war managed to defeat 8th Fleet away from Beatrice is ridiculous, there is one chance in 30 that she would have had hit his system and there was 100% chance that BoM would have been decisive, so keeping your top commander in a defensive operation that is not decisive and sending your #2 and #3 to command the operation would have been a terrible idea.

During the last days of the 1st war with Manticore Giscard was in command of 12th Fleet and Tourville was his 2IC, during Thunderbolt Tourville got a sideshow and 12 SD(P)'s while Giscard got the main show and 100 SD(P)'s. I think that proves who was the number 1 and who was the number 2.

They have plenty of capable deputies who can command an ambush, because the whole point was to outnumber the enemy and surprise them, sending your two best commanders on the operation that would win or lose the war for you would have been the smarter option.

I can't dispute that. Indeed Giscard would have been the best commander overall. See what tlb posted above too, making it clear that they had not swapped roles before Lovat.

Which just reinforces my original argument that any joint operations in preparation for Beatrice did not involve moving the CO to a remote place.

How would assassinating the Mandarins have impacted any war? Both Haven and the MA are fond of assassinations. The MA could have used Rajani to off the Mandarins.

Did the MA need the Mandarins in place?

cthia wrote:How would assassinating the Mandarins have impacted any war? Both Haven and the MA are fond of assassinations. The MA could have used Rajani to off the Mandarins.

Did the MA need the Mandarins in place?

Good question. I'm sure there would be a new Permanent Undersecretary soon for all positions. There must be a couple of underlings gunning for the position just biding their time to ascend. The only question here would be whether there's more than one and there's some instability before someone comes ahead of everyone else.

But it could backfire, for two reasons. First, these people that win may not be as readily influenceable as the previous undersecretaries. I'm sure they are corrupt already and would eventually be dancing to the MA's strings. The problem is the "eventually." It might be too long, a period in which those people may pull the SL to a direction that is not what the MA wants.

Which brings to the second problem: these new undersecretaries have a way to end the war by blaming their predecessors and not losing face. It would be too late for saving the SL's face -- the reputation is in tatters. But the government could simply blame the previous administration for missteps and end the war.

cthia wrote:How would assassinating the Mandarins have impacted any war? Both Haven and the MA are fond of assassinations. The MA could have used Rajani to off the Mandarins.

Did the MA need the Mandarins in place?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Good question. I'm sure there would be a new Permanent Undersecretary soon for all positions. There must be a couple of underlings gunning for the position just biding their time to ascend. The only question here would be whether there's more than one and there's some instability before someone comes ahead of everyone else.

But it could backfire, for two reasons. First, these people that win may not be as readily influenceable as the previous undersecretaries. I'm sure they are corrupt already and would eventually be dancing to the MA's strings. The problem is the "eventually." It might be too long, a period in which those people may pull the SL to a direction that is not what the MA wants.

Which brings to the second problem: these new undersecretaries have a way to end the war by blaming their predecessors and not losing face. It would be too late for saving the SL's face -- the reputation is in tatters. But the government could simply blame the previous administration for missteps and end the war.

I do not know about the Mandarins, but the Malign was already using assassination to move their people into place. Note that the Naval economic analyst was moved into his spot, because his predecessor had a fatal "accident".

tlb wrote:I do not know about the Mandarins, but the Malign was already using assassination to move their people into place. Note that the Naval economic analyst was moved into his spot, because his predecessor had a fatal "accident".

Good point too: the next in line for succession in the SL are likely in the MAlign's pockets already. So they really need to clean house and adopt a form of government that is really accountable to the people, as the terms of surrender required.

But to take a counter-example: Kingsford. When the MAligned offed Rajampet, the person who assumed the CNO position was not being controlled by the the MAlign. There doesn't seem to have been a contest of who would ascend either.

tlb wrote:I do not know about the Mandarins, but the Malign was already using assassination to move their people into place. Note that the Naval economic analyst was moved into his spot, because his predecessor had a fatal "accident".

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Good point too: the next in line for succession in the SL are likely in the MAlign's pockets already. So they really need to clean house and adopt a form of government that is really accountable to the people, as the terms of surrender required.

But to take a counter-example: Kingsford. When the MAligned offed Rajampet, the person who assumed the CNO position was not being controlled by the the MAlign. There doesn't seem to have been a contest of who would ascend either.

Should we take from that the Malign believed that with the process started by Rajampet, there was only one way that Kingsford could proceed; helped along by the analysis offered by Gweon. They did get the attack on Beowulf approved, by lying about the state of readiness.