How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Sigs wrote:My point about splitting the fleet was based on the fact that you don't need 240 SD(P)'s to take out Home Fleet, having 80 SD(P)'s and 100 SD's with a sizable LAC force go head to head with Home Fleet would save the other 160 SD(P)'s from damage and destruction.

Why do you think 80 SD(P)s would have sufficed when in the actual battle 120 SD(P)s were destroyed by the Home Fleet fire? Maybe 80 + 100 can put out the same amount of missile fire than the 240 SD(P)s did, but their survival rates are much poorer. I'd be surprised if there's anything left after Home Fleet's first launch arrives.

The DuQuesne class SDs will also have much poorer fire control links and sensors at that range. Even if the volume of fire of 100 SDs is equivalent to 160 SD(P)s, the accuracy would suffer greatly. That means 180 ships died instead of 120 and Home Fleet is battered but still there.

Home Fleet would not be bothering with shooting around, under, over or through the lead elements, they would be fighting to defeat the immediate threat. So yes Home Fleet might destroy 80 SD(P)'s and 100 SD's, but then you have a 2nd TF that is unbloodied and has the remaining 350,000 missiles for a first launch to clear the fixed defences.

If those extra 100 SDs were available, Theisman or Tourville might have found a way to use them. Something like your plan.

But they're likely to be far away from Haven, defending as many of the tertiary systems as the RHN can against battlecruiser and cruiser raids. Those 300 SDs ended up doing what the 374 Triumphant class BBs were doing in the first war.

Two Major Fleets, two top commanders with Giscard being the senior of them. I wont bypass my senior field commander and put him in a position one of his subordinates can handle while I put a less experienced officer in command of either 2nd or 5th Fleet. You are going after a tough target, you need your best officers.

Before Lovat, what was more important: the contingency plan or defending against Eighth Fleet? So why not have your top commander (Giscard) in the defence?

Seeing as there is a war going on, they should be ready for battle on a moments notice. So a DB is send out by Theisman the day after the News for Lovat comes in to all systems with ship concentrations with orders to a rendezvous location and leave for that location within 48h, if anyone cant for whatever reason leave in that time frame they should make quick work to fix their issues and move to Haven to form a fleet there.

Being ready does not mean being in position to make the trip in time.

You are in Washington DC, you need to gather as many troops in Reno, Nevada for an offensive on San Francisco. You take your capital army and send messengers to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas etc..etc..etc.. with orders to leave NLT 48h after receipt of message and rendezvous in Reno Nevada ASAP.

Not a valid comparison because D.C is on a coast.

Let's try this again: you are in Cincinnati, Ohio and you need to get to Reno. How long does it take to reach the garrisons in Florida, Maine, New Brunswick? How long will it take those to get to Reno, after you?

You don’t bother sending a messenger to US forces in Europe because they are too far to be of use ATM. The Army unit from North Dakota leaves their base and heads to Reno within 48h as ordered and it will take a little longer to get there but I don’t see how it would be 4 weeks extra.

It could be, depending on whether there are grav waves that the closer ships can take, especially the D.B. from Haven to the rally point ordering the launch.

We don't know for sure. All we know is that Theisman didn't order any significant reinforcement compared to the initial plan.

The question is, can they send a message from Haven to Bolthole and get them to the rally point in time for jump off?

No, not without significant delay. Travel from Haven to Manticore is about 2 months. The time between Lovat and Manticore was 10 weeks. That leaves only 2 weeks for the message to get from Lovat to Haven, for the decision to be made, DBs sent to the rally point and any remaining forces, and some integration work.

Waiting for Bolthole would mean a week and a half, assuming the forces there could leave immediately. Most likely, they weren't provisioned for a long trip because they were system defence forces. Even the trip to the rally point was going to be anywhere from two weeks (if close to Haven) to six weeks (if half-way to Manticore), so you need to load provisions. I doubt they could get underway in 48 hours.

The RMN/GSN started the war with 190 SD(P)’s, there were 35 S(DP)’s under construction in Manticore that were to be finished within a year of Jan 1920. So that right there is 225 SD(P)’s.

Indeed, they were given to Honor for Eighth Fleet. That's how Eighth went from a single battle squadron to 30-35 SD(P)s by Lovat.

Then there was the GSN’s SD(P)’s under construction. If throughout 1920 and early 1921 the GSN had commissioned another 30-40 SD(P)’s that brings the total to 265 SD(P)’s for the GSN/RMN. The IAN had 42 SD(P)’s in commission at start of war, those ships might not be on the main front but they will be deployed to the IAN Home Fleet and other important systems in the Empire. I doubt the IAN pulled out their SD(P)’s and put them in yards leaving themselves defenceless or a burden to limited resources of the MA fleet. sO that brings the total to 307 SD(P)’s. Then we add the ~45 SD(P)’s that were sped up by the Emperor so the total is 352 SD(P)’s.

The 40 IAN vessels that were guarding imperial systems would not be available to reinforce Eighth Fleet. They'd have to stay exactly where they are. Only the 40-some ships that had completed the refit would be available and they weren't yet by July 1921. We don't know when they became available.

Grayson construction might have been hindered by the need to send back some ships to refit for Keyhole II. In any case, 30 to 40 SD(P)s is a very high number. They had 115 total in the beginning for 1920 and that's because they continued building during the High Ridge years. Considering GSNS Honor Harrington has hull number SD-31 and is from 1912, it's reasonable to expect they ended the first war with about 50 SD(P)s. To get to 115 five years later means a steady pace of 13 ships a year.

So the GSN added 20 ships from the Infodump number, minus losses. Not 40.

So the MA has 352 SD(P)’s minus 12 SD(P)’s for losses incurred in Solon and Zanzibar.

I'd say a little less, but in the same ballpark (320). Before the battle.

During the BoM, the alliance lost Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and elements of 8th Fleet that were attached to 3rd Fleet. During the BoM the losses were 98 SD(P)’s destroyed or written off. So that’s 340 SD(P)’s – 98 SD(P)’s leaving the allied wall to 242 SD(P). Which is 10 SD(P)’s more than they started the war with.

Agreed, but again I'd say a little lower on the numbers. And noting that the 40 IAN SD(P)s might not be available for a couple of months.

New Berlin gets 30 SD(P)’s, Grayson gets 40 SD(P)’s, Manticore gets 70 SD(P)’s and Trevor’s Star gets 70 SD(P)’s. At the same time 8th Fleet would constitute 8th Fleet because they are the only Keyhole force in the Alliance so Home Fleet would be 105 SD(P)’s but only about 35 SD(P)’s would truly matter until new constructions can reform Home Fleet.

I'd disperse a little differently. More ships to New Berlin and Grayson, fewer to Trevor's Star.

Which would all be deployed to RMN/GSN Home Fleet and Trevor’s Star thereby freeing 8th Fleet for operations. This would release 180 regular SD(P)’s for redeployment because with Apollo Trevor’s Star, Manticore and Grayson are well protected. I would reinforce the IAN and keep the rest in Trevor’s Star.

Not really. We know from Uncompromising Honor that the SD(P)s weren't freed until Mycroft came online. The system may have defence pods, but apparently they can't be fired or controlled without the ships.

Zanzibat, Alizon and whatever other smaller allies are around all have SD(P)’s picketing them. Between 7-11 SD(P)’s but they add up. The GSN HF would add up to ~60 SD(P)’s because they don’t have 3rd Fleet to reinforce them if the need should come so they have to be stronger than the RMN Home Fleet. So grabbing some SD(P)’s from there would work as well. Also pull out any SD(P)’s from non critical systems.

And uncover all of them completely? That's not going to go well for the Alliance.

I don't understand your logic on Grayson. You're saying that they don't have a reserve force like Trevor's Star, therefore they can be weakened? Shouldn't it be the other way around, now that the effectiveness of RHN SD(P)s with donkey has been demonstrated?

I stayed out of this thread because my warped thinking is too far off base.

The Detweiler Plan was centuries in the making. Present technological advancements couldn't and didn't play a part. I'm certain the MA knew there would be breakthroughs, but they probably figured that bridge would be crossed when the time comes. At one point much after the fact, RoH was turning to the SL for tech. How early had they relied on the SL for toys?

My guess would be the MA was planning to engineer conflict between the two like it did with Manticore. They were going to instigate conflict.

Oyster Bay was an addendum. It was a last ditch effort to stop the derailing of their plans just as Pearl Harbor was a last ditch desperation move.

Also, I imagine the MA would have assisted Haven behind the scenes. After the SL falls, everything else would have been a moot point as far as the MA is concerned. The RoH and The Star Kingdom would have canceled each other out in inevitable conflict.

My question is how badly did the MA want the SL defeated? Did they just want them defeated or totally destroyed? The author put the breaks on total destruction, which is realistic. But it appeared to me the MA had no such similar mediocre plans.

How does the Harrington Plan fit into the Detweiler Plan?

tlb wrote:That depends on when the system defense pods were in full production, doesn't it? If that change had occurred in the middle of July, then there could be significant numbers deployed by the middle of August.

Sigs wrote:Depends on where they go first. If as I believe 8th Fleet got new reinforcements before the BoM most of those Apollo Pods would be going to 8th Fleet to arm the SD(P)'s there, stock up a nice reserve of Ammunition in preparation for the python lump as I assume they weren't surprised by it. They need their ships stocked up, they need pods for rearmament and preparations for the next offensive. Problem is that a month later wouldn't necessarily be worse because of system defence pods, but it would be harder because 8th Fleet would have had more time to drill their SD(P)'s and get more SD(P)'s with keyhole capabilities in their arsenal, now where they go is the question, if they go to Home Fleet that's a problem, if they go to 8th Fleet it might work in the RHN's favour if they get lucky. Normally I wouldn't count on luck but its not like they had much else going for them.

Do you realize that the system defense variant of Apollo is not the same as the missiles 8th Fleet carries? So, it is true that some of them would go to Trevor's star for both the forts and the planets, but none would go to 8th Fleet. The ones put around the home planets would be under the control of Home Fleet, but I do not believe that they would be tractored to the ships.

cthia wrote:I stayed out of this thread because my warped thinking is too far off base.

The Detweiler Plan was centuries in the making. Present technological advancements couldn't and didn't play a part. I'm certain the MA knew there would be breakthroughs, but they probably figured that bridge would be crossed when the time comes. At one point much after the fact, RoH was turning to the SL for tech. How early had they relied on the SL for toys?

My guess would be the MA was planning to engineer conflict between the two like it did with Manticore. They were going to instigate conflict.

Oyster Bay was an addendum. It was a last ditch effort to stop the derailing of their plans just as Pearl Harbor was a last ditch desperation move.

Also, I imagine the MA would have assisted Haven behind the scenes. After the SL falls, everything else would have been a moot point as far as the MA is concerned. The RoH and The Star Kingdom would have canceled each other out in inevitable conflict.

My question is how badly did the MA want the SL defeated? Did they just want them defeated or totally destroyed? The author put the breaks on total destruction, which is realistic. But it appeared to me the MA had no such similar mediocre plans.

How does the Harrington Plan fit into the Detweiler Plan?

The Solarian League versus the Peoples' Republic of Haven was the Mesan Alignment's preferred match-up. Even after the restoration of the republic, I think the they hoped Haven would win; because that would increase the isolation of Beowulf.

As you say they could not know what technology would be available for Oyster Bay, but they could have various contingency plans to strike which ever side was strongest. Probably they originally thought that the target would be the Solarian League.

I think that they wanted all sides to eventually be discouraged and war-weary, so the appearance of the Renaissance Factor would be an attractive alternative to the warring parties.

I think the Harrington Plan is a competitor to the Detweiler Plan. Both contemplate a loss of cohesion by the Solarian League, but differ in the partnership arrangements. Harrington hoped for the split to occur at the sector level, leaving the Core Worlds in a multi-planet relationship. My impression is that Detweiler planned for individual planets to join the Factor in more of a subordinate role.

tlb wrote:

cthia wrote:I stayed out of this thread because my warped thinking is too far off base.

The Detweiler Plan was centuries in the making. Present technological advancements couldn't and didn't play a part. I'm certain the MA knew there would be breakthroughs, but they probably figured that bridge would be crossed when the time comes. At one point much after the fact, RoH was turning to the SL for tech. How early had they relied on the SL for toys?

My guess would be the MA was planning to engineer conflict between the two like it did with Manticore. They were going to instigate conflict.

Oyster Bay was an addendum. It was a last ditch effort to stop the derailing of their plans just as Pearl Harbor was a last ditch desperation move.

Also, I imagine the MA would have assisted Haven behind the scenes. After the SL falls, everything else would have been a moot point as far as the MA is concerned. The RoH and The Star Kingdom would have canceled each other out in inevitable conflict.

My question is how badly did the MA want the SL defeated? Did they just want them defeated or totally destroyed? The author put the breaks on total destruction, which is realistic. But it appeared to me the MA had no such similar mediocre plans.

How does the Harrington Plan fit into the Detweiler Plan?

The Solarian League versus the Peoples' Republic of Haven was the Mesan Alignment's preferred match-up. Even after the restoration of the republic, I think the they hoped Haven would win; because that would increase the isolation of Beowulf.

As you say they could not know what technology would be available for Oyster Bay, but they could have various contingency plans to strike which ever side was strongest. Probably they originally thought that the target would be the Solarian League.

I think that they wanted all sides to eventually be discouraged and war-weary, so the appearance of the Renaissance Factor would be an attractive alternative to the warring parties.

I think the Harrington Plan is a competitor to the Detweiler Plan. Both contemplate a loss of cohesion by the Solarian League, but differ in the partnership arrangements. Harrington hoped for the split to occur at the sector level, leaving the Core Worlds in a multi-planet relationship. My impression is that Detweiler planned for individual planets to join the Factor in more of a subordinate role.

Interesting and insightful.

I agree with why they wanted the RoH to win. However, I wasn't thinking in as nice of terms as you. The real objective is Beowulf, the bane of their existence, but the SL was the enforcer of such crimes as, say, kewing planets into compliance. The Gorilla enforces violations of the Edict. With them out of the way, there would be no navy to oppose them. So I agree, isolating Beowulf like a weak wildebeest would allow it to be eaten alive.


A note. When I stated the MA couldn't have been aware of any technological advancements, I meant that of their enemies. I think they knew full well what THEY would be bringing to the party. Right along with their angst, their R&D had begun centuries earlier. Remember, when they kicked off their assault upon the galaxy, it was very premature. Just how early they ratcheted up the heat upon the galaxy ahead of schedule isn't known. But I think it is safe to assume it wouldn't have been until they were ready. LDs and all.

I think it's safe to say that if they had been able to keep everything under wraps and had not unveiled their tech until their maiden voyage - much like the RMN with Apollo - the galaxy would be speaking Malign.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:But Calvin is IIRC about the same distance from Manticore as Trevor's Star; just in a different direction. Forces from there could save some transit time if they were ordered to proceed directly from Calvin to a rendezvous at some empty system or spot of deep space some 15 or 20 LY from Manticore.

That can't be. Calvin is 200 light-years from Sol and Sanctuary is 10 from Calvin. Manticore is 512 light-years from Sol. So even if the three line up perfectly in a straight line, the distance would be 302 light-years, or 37 days of travel. Add the 10 days to get the movement orders to Bolthole and you're looking at 47 days between ordering and them making to RV system.

And the chances that the three systems are in straight line are zero. If Calvin is off by 60°, the distance is 447 light-years.

Ah, I didn't go back and try to look up the distance, I just remembered that Haven's old government had had the idiotic idea that a wormhole out past Manticore would be useful in assisting them in hitting Manticore from multiple points on their hyper limit. Somehow that stuck in my head as meaning it was reasonably close. Oops.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Why do you think 80 SD(P)s would have sufficed when in the actual battle 120 SD(P)s were destroyed by the Home Fleet fire? Maybe 80 + 100 can put out the same amount of missile fire than the 240 SD(P)s did, but their survival rates are much poorer. I'd be surprised if there's anything left after Home Fleet's first launch arrives.

Their survival rates are not important to the mission, the success of the mission is of paramount importance. Home Fleet destroyed 120 SD(P)'s but did 2nd Fleet need 240 SD(P)'s to destroy Home Fleet's 42 SD(P)'s?

Having 80 SD(P)'s and 100 SD's with 5,000 LAC's would have almost certainly been destroyed by Home Fleet's 150,000 missiles but the 80 SD(P)'s and 100 SD's can launch ~170,000 maybe a little more which should be enough to destroy Home Fleet as well, at the end of the day whether its 170,000 or 525,000 missiles Home Fleet would be just as dead and 2nd Fleet would have a TF behind the leading elements able to take on the fixed defences with fresh unbloodied forces. Whatever LACs survived the battle if any can fall back and join the 2nd TF to thicken missile defence.

The DuQuesne class SDs will also have much poorer fire control links and sensors at that range. Even if the volume of fire of 100 SDs is equivalent to 160 SD(P)s, the accuracy would suffer greatly. That means 180 ships died instead of 120 and Home Fleet is battered but still there.

I am in no way suggesting that they can fire the same number of missiles, the 100 SD's would be able to fire no more than 20,000 maybe 30 on a really, really good day, but Home Fleet is just as dead with 170,000 missiles coming at it as 525,000 missiles. If they used the donkeys they may be able to fire 100,000 missiles, they wont be able to control more than 20% of the 100,000 missiles but throwing that weight added to the 175,000 from the 80 SD(P)'s would overwhelm Home Fleet. That's 195,000 missiles against 42 SD(P)'s and 48 SD's and 57 below the wall with 2,400 LAC's to eat up 195,000 missiles under control from 2nd Fleet and another 80,000 missiles mixed in there as a distraction.

If those extra 100 SDs were available, Theisman or Tourville might have found a way to use them. Something like your plan.

But they're likely to be far away from Haven, defending as many of the tertiary systems as the RHN can against battlecruiser and cruiser raids. Those 300 SDs ended up doing what the 374 Triumphant class BBs were doing in the first war.

Uh, I don't think so, they would be guarding the systems higher on the list than Lovat. Lovat had 24 SD's as picket, chances are that the systems above it would also have an equal or larger picket force. The third tier systems get BC's as picket and in the case of at least one system(Hera) BB's, I am not entirely sure where they got those from but there might be 50 or 60 BB's left over for the low tier systems. So most likely where there is an ambush Fleet there is a strong conventional system picket. I doubt that Lovat had 24 SD's guarding it and the 15 systems above it on the list had nothing.

Before Lovat, what was more important: the contingency plan or defending against Eighth Fleet? So why not have your top commander (Giscard) in the defence?

Defence of one system 8th Fleet might not even hit. Before Lovat 8th Fleet was an annoyance, they could have easily kept 8th fleet busy if they went on the offensive, and I'm not talking about major offensives just deploy 96 SD(P)'s in 3 Fleets to attack Silesia, Andermani Empire ad the minor allies. The RHN wouldn't try to take over the Empire or Silesia, they just show up in weak systems and crush the picket and the industry. The MA cannot ignore this, they would have to set up ambushes of their own and can you imagine trying to set up ambushes when there are 80+ potential targets between the Empire and Silesia? Silesia did not have any SD(P)'s as far as I know and the Empire might have had 40 of them but their main defence was the distance.

So 48 SD(P)'s for the Empire, 32 SD(P)'s for the minor allies and 16 SD(P)'s for Silesia. They are by no means an invasion fleet, but they are powerful enough to require significant defences by the MA.

Being ready does not mean being in position to make the trip in time.

How so?

Not a valid comparison because D.C is on a coast.

Ignore the sea, ignore the fact that you can phone them, fax them, send a plane, send a helicopter. You have to get to reno through the continental US. Just like you have to go to Manticore from Haven. The bulk of the RHN would be between Haven and Manticore and the RHN would not bother calling for ships from the east side of the republic because the east side of the republic is literally the opposite direction. For most other systems, if it take 30 days to get from Haven to Manticore will take 60 days from the time the DB leaves Haven to the time they get to the rally point.

Isn’t it quite the coincidence that they planned Beatrice with ~330-350 SD(P)’s and that’s what they executed it with? Almost like they didn’t want to bring more ships.

It could be, depending on whether there are grav waves that the closer ships can take, especially the D.B. from Haven to the rally point ordering the launch.

We don't know for sure. All we know is that Theisman didn't order any significant reinforcement compared to the initial plan.

Because if he had ordered the extra ships there then the Python Lump would have happened right before the battle to reinforce 8th fleet so that the MA wins once again. They almost won with 335, imagine if there were 450 SD(P)’s 90 CLAC’s 500 escorts and 250 SD’s? Even with their super weapon 8th Fleet just barely squeaked out a victory, throw a force of another 120 SD(P)’s 45 CLAC’s, 400 escorts and 250 SD’s above and beyond what 2nd and 5th brough with them and 8th Fleet would have destroy a number of them, ran dry and would have had to surrender with the rest of the SKM and the Home System.

No, not without significant delay. Travel from Haven to Manticore is about 2 months. The time between Lovat and Manticore was 10 weeks. That leaves only 2 weeks for the message to get from Lovat to Haven, for the decision to be made, DBs sent to the rally point and any remaining forces, and some integration work.

What does travel from Lovat to Manticore matter?

Waiting for Bolthole would mean a week and a half, assuming the forces there could leave immediately. Most likely, they weren't provisioned for a long trip because they were system defence forces. Even the trip to the rally point was going to be anywhere from two weeks (if close to Haven) to six weeks (if half-way to Manticore), so you need to load provisions. I doubt they could get underway in 48 hours.

They are at war, they should always be ready to go, this is not peacetime they should be ready to move on a moments notice. Since they are in a system as a picket they should have plenty of time to frequently top off everything they need, they aren’t on a patrol with no resupply for months, they are right next to a planet.

Indeed, they were given to Honor for Eighth Fleet. That's how Eighth went from a single battle squadron to 30-35 SD(P)s by Lovat.

That might have been helped along by the IAN, kinda like how the IAN also had ships in the RMN Home Fleet.

The 40 IAN vessels that were guarding imperial systems would not be available to reinforce Eighth Fleet. They'd have to stay exactly where they are. Only the 40-some ships that had completed the refit would be available and they weren't yet by July 1921. We don't know when they became available.

Sure we do, right after Solon. At all costs chapter 43. Right after Solon and Zanzibar the MA had to reinforce the minor allies and still picket Zanzibar and it says there that it was “fortunate that over forty Andermani superdreadnoughts had finally completed their refits to handle Manticoran missile pods and reported for duty.” This was about 8 weeks after TF 84 had returned to Trevor’s Star after Solon.

Grayson construction might have been hindered by the need to send back some ships to refit for Keyhole II. In any case, 30 to 40 SD(P)s is a very high number. They had 115 total in the beginning for 1920 and that's because they continued building during the High Ridge years. Considering GSNS Honor Harrington has hull number SD-31 and is from 1912, it's reasonable to expect they ended the first war with about 50 SD(P)s. To get to 115 five years later means a steady pace of 13 ships a year.

SD-31=/=SD(P)-31, there were SD’s before the Honor Harington and that was the first SD(P)if I remember correctly and it was launched to commemorate its name sake on her 1 year anniversary of her execution. So the RMN finished the war with 50 SD(P)’s Highridge allowed the RMN to finish off the once that were very close to completion If I remember correctly any ship above 80% completed was finished. At the same time the GSN would have had a squadron or two of the SD(P)’s with 8th Fleet and none with Home Fleet for fear of letting the RHN find out about the SD(P)’s before the alliance was ready. So they may have ended the war with 3 squadrons but they also were getting ready for round two of the war well before the SKM was so they would have ramped up production since they saw it on the horizon.

So the GSN added 20 ships from the Infodump number, minus losses. Not 40.

Lets go back to at all costs Chapter 7.

RMN has 75 SD(P)’s in service, the IAN 42 SD(P)’s in service and the GSN 115 SD(P)’s in service in January 1920. Caparelli states that within the next 18 months they would have just over 400 SD(P)’s in service between the 3 allied navies.

The RMN had 35 SD(P)’s under construction, and according to Caparelli they wont have more than 110 SD(P)’s for at least 2 years(24 months). So we know that the RMN in 18 months would be 110 SD(P)’s(75 SD(P)’s plus 35 SD(P)’s).

The IAN had 90 under construction and they predicted all 90 would be done within 18 months. Later on they were proven wrong but that is irrelevant for this portion.

So if we take their estimate of just over 400 SD(P)’s in 18 months then 400-75-115-42-90-35=43 SD(P)’s that are of build in the 18 months by the GSN.
So allowing for the 45 SD(P)’s delay by the IAN this would bring the total close to 355 SD(P)’s and losses in Solon and Zanzibar were 12 SD(P)’s.

So at the Time of Lovat the MA had no less than 343 SD(P)’s in service with another 40-45 SD(P)’s close to finish by the IAN and probably 100 or more in SKM yards and 50 in GSN yards nearing completion. So the MA was expecting close to 200 SD(P)’s after Lovat.

Agreed, but again I'd say a little lower on the numbers. And noting that the 40 IAN SD(P)s might not be available for a couple of months.

See above. The 40 IAN SD(P)’s are already committed defending the minor allies as of 8 weeks post Solon.

I'd disperse a little differently. More ships to New Berlin and Grayson, fewer to Trevor's Star.

Maybe more ships to Grayson but unless I am right and the RHN has 605 SD(P)’s remaining after BoM the empire is safe. If the RHN has 270 SD(P)’s the last thing they would be doing is sending any SD(P)’s to the Andermani who are probably a month and a half away. So that would be 3 months for whatever SD(P)’s the RHN sends to the empire to get back and knocking the empire out of the war means nothing since the SKM has enough Keyhole ships under construction to finish the RHN.

So New Berlin gets 30 SD(P)’s because it’s a capital, Maybe send more to Grayson but Trevor’s Star is a vital system, it cuts the travel time drastically. There is still a chance that the RHN might come up with some quick solution, so giving them more time by not defending Trevor’s Star properly isn’t an option.

Not really. We know from Uncompromising Honor that the SD(P)s weren't freed until Mycroft came online. The system may have defence pods, but apparently they can't be fired or controlled without the ships.

Im not talking about removing the SD(P)’s from the Home System, I am talking about removing the non-keyhole SD(P)’s from the home system.

And uncover all of them completely? That's not going to go well for the Alliance.

It becomes apparent at that point that the minor allies are not a threat, the RoH knows they are losing, if they want to avoid losing they go after Manticore not their minor allies. If they go on a tour of the allies to trash their industry they know it wont win them the war but will sure piss off the alliance when its time to negotiate terms. Plus deploying pods and a few dozen SD’s will make it easier to help.

I don't understand your logic on Grayson. You're saying that they don't have a reserve force like Trevor's Star, therefore they can be weakened? Shouldn't it be the other way around, now that the effectiveness of RHN SD(P)s with donkey has been demonstrated?

They don’t have a reserve like the RMN Home Fleet has so their fleet is normally stronger than the RMN Home Fleet. They don’t have 3rd Fleet to ask for help so throughout the war, the GSN maintained a heavier Home Fleet than that of Manticore. But once it becomes obvious that Manticore is the alliance member to beat you can weaken the GSN Home Fleet to reinforce Manticore and Trevor’s Star. If Grayson surrenders, the war still goes on, if the Empire surrenders the war goes on, if the SKM surrenders the war ends quickly because they hold the bulk of the new keyhole ships and it splits the remnants of the alliance in two, separated by hundreds of LY. The Empire will have their 40 SD(P)’s with keyhole 200 LY from manticore, and Grayson might have their 20 SD(P)’s with keyhole near Manticore but the RHN has neutralized the biggest concentration of SD(P)’s with keyhole.

cthia wrote:I agree with why they wanted the RoH to win. However, I wasn't thinking in as nice of terms as you. The real objective is Beowulf, the bane of their existence, but the SL was the enforcer of such crimes as, say, kewing planets into compliance. The Gorilla enforces violations of the Edict. With them out of the way, there would be no navy to oppose them. So I agree, isolating Beowulf like a weak wildebeest would allow it to be eaten alive.

A note. When I stated the MA couldn't have been aware of any technological advancements, I meant that of their enemies. I think they knew full well what THEY would be bringing to the party. Right along with their angst, their R&D had begun centuries earlier. Remember, when they kicked off their assault upon the galaxy, it was very premature. Just how early they ratcheted up the heat upon the galaxy ahead of schedule isn't known. But I think it is safe to assume it wouldn't have been until they were ready. LDs and all.

I think it's safe to say that if they had been able to keep everything under wraps and had not unveiled their tech until their maiden voyage - much like the RMN with Apollo - the galaxy would be speaking Malign.

If anything, they knew that the Solarian League would be the one committing things that would come the closest to EE violations; because of the way they had corrupted the leadership. My point was that Manticore was on much better terms with Beowulf than even the Republic of Haven could be, so if Manticore lost, Beowulf would be isolated from both sides.

Unless you are suggesting that the spider driver, the streak drive and the graser torpedo were developed a century prior; then there is no way that the Malign could be confident that those breakthroughs could be achieved to bring to "the party". Until you have something working, you cannot be confident that you will have anything working. Just ask yourself this question: if the Malign had these technologies for more than five years, then why was the Leonard Detweiler class still under construction?

I think their plan was wildly optimistic and began going off its narrow gauge rails when the Peoples' Republic could not easily defeat Manticore. The technology spurred by the war and the re-establishment of the Republic, meant that it was impossible for the Solarian League to survive until the Plan's expected endgame.

cthia wrote:I stayed out of this thread because my warped thinking is too far off base.

The Detweiler Plan was centuries in the making. Present technological advancements couldn't and didn't play a part. I'm certain the MA knew there would be breakthroughs, but they probably figured that bridge would be crossed when the time comes. At one point much after the fact, RoH was turning to the SL for tech. How early had they relied on the SL for toys?

Since the beginning of the arms race with Manticore or at the very least as soon as they realized how far behind they were technologically compared to the RMN.

My guess would be the MA was planning to engineer conflict between the two like it did with Manticore. They were going to instigate conflict.

Yeah, but how? The Republic is far enough away and there were far too many juicy targets in its immediate neighbourhood for them to go sniffing close to Frontier Security. Ayn conflict I see happening would have required the SKM/Erewhon being captured or captured or FF to go way, way out of their way.

Oyster Bay was an addendum. It was a last ditch effort to stop the derailing of their plans just as Pearl Harbor was a last ditch desperation move.

That's the thing though, their plan was not derailed, they shouldn't have been wedded to the players in their plan but the outcome. If the RHN had been defeated all they had to do was wait a few decades like their original plan called for, and push for the war once the technological imbalances are solved. At that point the SEM would also be more powerful economically and militarily because they have had 3 or 4 decades to incorporate their 45-50 systems into the empire during peacetime but at the same time the SLN would have had a chance to catch up a little. So a war in 1950-1960 would have looked much different than the war that actually happened. OB was an attempt for the MA to manipulate the RoH without actually directly manipulating them.

My question is how badly did the MA want the SL defeated? Did they just want them defeated or totally destroyed? The author put the breaks on total destruction, which is realistic. But it appeared to me the MA had no such similar mediocre plans.

I think they wanted the league to disintegrate so that the RF can swoop in as saviour of humanity when all hell breaks loose after 750 years of relative peace for the core/shell. They swoop in, provide security and basically replace it which would have been much easier if they had tried to gently over the 750 years change the SL’s opinions more in line with theirs.

tlb wrote:Do you realize that the system defense variant of Apollo is not the same as the missiles 8th Fleet carries? So, it is true that some of them would go to Trevor's star for both the forts and the planets, but none would go to 8th Fleet. The ones put around the home planets would be under the control of Home Fleet, but I do not believe that they would be tractored to the ships.

No I didn't know that. I assumed that it would be the exact same so that if something happened to your pipeline you can use the system defence pods to arm your ships. It seems a little weird that there would be two variants, one for ships one for system defence. This OB destroying the stations and the missile pipeline which reduces the keyhole capable SD(P)'s to regular pods. Im assuming that the reason for that is to add endurance to the pods, but I can think of a lot of other ways to add endurance without making 2 variants.