How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Sigs wrote:At what point would he have engaged? 10-1 odds? 1,000 to 1 odds? 1,000,000-1 odds? A 1,000,000,000-1 odds?

100-46 SD(P)'s is 2.17 to 1 odds in his favour, 180-86 SD(P)'s is 2.09-1 odds. If he was conforatable with 2 to 1 odds in one scenario, he would have been confortable with 2 to 1 odds in the other scenario.

The problem is not the odds, it's how many ships he'd lose.

Let's make a simplification: at 2:1 odds in Haven's favour, the Havenite force destroys all the Alliance defenders, but loses equally many ships. So at 100 against 48, Giscard is victorious but lost 48 ships. At 180 against 86, Giscard is victorious but lost 86 ships. Because of construction limitations, this may not be an acceptable trade-off. Whatever force remains has to hold Trevor's Star against a retake attempt and also defend Haven space.

Not really, if 2nd Fleet is 90% destroyed and in the process destroys 3rd Fleet and the GSN task Force I think that's fair trade off. The MA would have 111 SD(P)'s to cover Grendelsbane, Manticore and Grayson while the RHN would still have 150 SD(P)'s from 1nd FLT if they didn't engage and whatever is left over from 2nd FLT. The SKM would have 100 SD(P)'s under construction and Grayson would have 50-100 SD(P)'s under construction but while the republic would still have almost 800 SD(P)'s under construction.

And are those 150 SD(P)s sufficient to defend Haven, Bolthole and the primary systems? My worry is not whether Haven can succeed in destroying more in this battle, but whether it compromises its ability to win the war.

At this point, Haven cannot have 800 SD(P)s under construction. There's exactly one yard that is building SD(P)s in Haven space at this point and that's Bolthole. It has just completed 315 of them. So it probably has a second wave under construction, around 350, for completion in early 1921. The other yards will immediately start construction, but even if Theisman was smart and can repurpose some of the partial hulls to SD(P), I wouldn't give them more than 40. Everything else is going to start.

More problematic is the fact that Haven takes 36 months to build an SD(P). So most of the ships under construction (however many they are) won't be ready before early 1921. Manticore, on the other hand, can build an SD(P) in 24 months. If Grendelsbane is not taken out, those partially-built 75 Invictus will be ready some time in mid-1920. That dramatically changes the balance.

So if Giscard loses 86 of the 315 SD(P)s that the RHN had and the RHN won't get any significant additions until 1921, but the MA grows to 179 by the end of the year, the odds drop to 1.27:1. That is not a good, long-term prospect for Haven's chances of winning.

We know that the GSN had sent away 12 SD(P)s (or 16) to Sidemore and 40 to Trevor's Star. That's over two thirds of their total forces. So please don't argue that they wouldn't do what we know they did.

52/115 = over 2/3? That's not even 50%.

Oops, I divided by the Manticore total (75), not the GSN total (113). Thanks for catching the mistake.

1)You are assuming that the RHN ships get destroyed without firing a shot. If 180 SD(P)'s of the RHN get destroyed you better believe that the GSN and RMN are suffering insane casualties as well.
2)IAN was NOT part of the alliance during Thunderbolt and not really a concern at the time.
3)The GSN/RMN did NOT know how many SD(P)'s the republic had, the RHN could have had no more SD(P)'s or 300 more SD(P)'s.

1) I'm not. See above.

2) The IAN could be part of it. Honor was supposed to be in Marsh because of escalating tensions with the IAN, specifically because elements in the Haven government were fanning those tensions. But she did meet with von Habenstrage again. So who's to say she wasn't coming home with evidence of Havenite involvement? That would explain why she was at the Junction or in Trevor's Star, not in Marsh as was expected.

And the IAN must be considered as an effect after the attack too, even if they didn't show up in Manticore during Thunderbolt. The fact that Haven did attack would make them choose sides and join the Alliance. So their 42 SD(P)s need to be added to the count of ships that Haven might need to defend itself against.

And remember that at this point Andermani SD(P) designs hadn't been tested in battle, so Haven had to plan for them being quite effective.

3) that is the point. Since they didn't know Haven had any SD(P)s, Haven has to plan for Manticore making weird decisions. And Haven does know how many they have, so that goes into their plans.

You mean the Home Fleet he outnumbers 12.5 to 1 in SD(P)'s? He doesn't have to disengage, Home Fleet is already expanding wreckage.

Yes, the Home Fleet whose SDs are tractoring pods full of missiles that are more effective than theirs and is defended by thousands of LACs. The superiority in SD(P)s doesn't count for the first launch, only for those after the first.

The initial exchange isn't 14 against 140, it's 114 against 140. Of course, Haven can offset that by bringing SDs of their own with tractored pods.

And maybe someone actually uses those forts and system defence pods we've heard about?

By the way, weren't you the one arguing that even preparing for sending 50% of your modern wall was a Hail Mary situation/ What do you call sending 100% of your modern wall as the opening attack?

And in that situation, there's a good chance the admiral in charge will simply surrender with their ships, which subtracts from the RHN total and adds to the MA total. Not a good exchange.

So he will outnumber the enemy but surrender? Really?

You've lost the context here.

This was in the situation under which the forces at Trevor's Star yield the system and transit to Manticore. So the 140 SD(P)s of the attacking Havenite force are now facing 114 MA SD(P)s and 100 SDs and is trapped inside the hyperlimit. With 250 SD(P)s, Tourville would have lost to Home Fleet and Third Fleet, if Fifth Fleet with Adm. Chin hadn't showed up. In your scenario, the forces attacking Manticore are smaller (though Home Fleet is also weaker) and the transiting forces from Trevor's Star are twice as strong as Third Fleet. Tourville surrendered, so why wouldn't this CO?

Either way, none of those 140 SD(P)s make it home. You've traded 14 MA SD(P)s from Home Fleet and some more from the relief forces that got damaged for 140 of yours. And if some of the surrendered SD(P)s are repairable and can be returned on service on the MA side, it gets worse.

[cut the rest of the discussion at the change of topic]

Sigs wrote:You are 100% right, they just grabbed 7 individual fleets that had never operated in anything more than 50 SD(P) strength, put them together and send them on their way as the largest concentration of SD(P)'s ever deployed?

They did have a month in hyper to simulate together. They might have had a couple of weeks together anyway: it was ten weeks from the Battle of Lovat to the Battle of Manticore. If the travel time is 8 weeks, that's two weeks of exercises as a whole unit. They also didn't have to be on-station as ambush fleets until the first possible time for Honor getting there..

Read the book, I am getting tired of posting the same excerpts for you to ignore.

You're quoting the reasons in April. I want to know what reasons Theisman would have on May 16, 1921 (after Lovat), when he knew the war was going to end on July 24 (Battle of Manticore).

The reason for defending against the Andermani is now baseless, since he can guess that the reason the Andermani were missing is because they were getting Apollo. If they show up with Apollo, it won't matter if he has 300 SD(P)s held back or 600.

If he has 150 SD(P)s somewhere near Manticore that aren't doing anything but keeping the Manticore forces pinned, why didn't he send them? They were in range.

I'm interested on how you explain Giscard's presence in Lovat.

Killed before he can be recalled? They started gathering the ships for the operation and he was the last on the list. It's not like there was a year or two between the discussion and Lovat, there was a few weeks at most.

You're the one claiming that the force of 240 SD(P)s needs to train together and must have started doing so before Lovat. If that is the case, why was their CO not there with them?

And because the MA knows that Haven knows this, they won't implement a plan that does little to the war-fighting ability of Haven.

What the hell was Lovat? It did nothing to their warfighting ability but lit a fire under their ass to get the war over now.

Lovat was one of the Top 20 systems. Your proposal was that Eighth Fleet would attack tertiary systems -- those outside the Top 50.

That's my point, even the systems that are covered by a fleet don't know they are covered by a fleet, so every system aside from the 7-8 with visible fleets will be screaming for defences and the RHN will be nowhere to be found, not a good look in a democracy.

Quite correct.

And there's nothing they can do about that. Haven has something like 300 systems. Let's say that 200 are populated. Let's say that the minimum force to effectively protect against Eighth Fleet is 32 SD(P)s). The RHN needs 6400 SD(P)s to cover all of them. Since they have a tenth of that, we conclude the RHN is not covering all of them.

Taking your number of 956 SD(P)s and subtracting 100 that are in Capital Fleet, 100 that are in Bolthole and 64*2 that are in the two most important systems after Haven and Bolthole, the RHN has 628 ships left, including the ones working up. With the same force levels, the RHN could then cover an additional 19 systems. That covers the Top 23 systems only.

But you said that Theisman had to keep 150 SD(P)s close to Manticore and Trevor's Star. That reduces the number of additional systems covered to 15. That means that even with the force number of ships that you claim he had, the RHN can't effectively cover the Top 20 systems in the Republic.

Conclusion: Congress isn't happy any way you look at it. That means the overall strategy has to be the Republic first, the individual systems second.

Wether they had 590 SD(P)'s or 920 SD(P)'s after Lovat they should have send every ships they could get their hands on but they didn't, most likely because the majority of Beatrice Force was forward Deployed already.

Mu argument is that he did send every ship he could get his hand on, except those whose movement would tip Manticore that something was up.

I am getting a headache from you. My issue is not POST LOVAT it is BEFORE LOVAT.

Please take a breath. I'm not trying to be difficult. I am enjoying this discussion and I hope you are too. If it stops being enjoyable, we stop.

I am arguing that the situation post Lovat does apply. Your argument is that when Theisman met Pritchart in April and briefed her on Beatrice, for launch some time in July or August, the RHN would be at 950+ ships, but he'd send 336. Let's assume you're right.

But if you're right, why did he in May 1921, after Lovat had happened, after he knew how destructive Apollo was, after he guessed why the IAN ships he was so worried about were missing, would he launch Beatrice with those same 336 ships? Why hold back? Why hold back those 150 that are pinning MA forces and are on the way anyway? Even if it takes an extra week to get them to join the train, that's increasing his force strength by nearly 50%.

kzt wrote:A Honorcon 1, before they become cosplay cons for other people's IPs, David talked about this issue. I forget the exact details, (They were posted here, but the terrible platform used here erases old postings) but it was something like 25 meters long, 12.5 meters wide and 12.5 meters high and massing up to 500 tons. Basically 16 x forty foot cargo containers.

Working in zero G, the cargo containers can be huge, no problem being that size. My problem is doing so in your main habitat where the VAST majority of your cargo is with the planet, not international. Here on earth, international cargo is separate from internal cargo, why would this not be true in space where you literally have ALL THE SPACE you need to do so? Why would this be in the CENTER of your habitat as done at Beowulf? Habitat is only ~20million. It would literally be stupid to try shipping 500 ton lots of strawberries in system. So, Interstellar shipping containers SHOULD be much larger than interplanetary or between LEO/GEO & planetside.

Your stated volume, HV TEU equivalent, is too much volume for too many products that all have to go elsewhere. Stacking height of packaging alone would eliminate that volume to much smaller. I look at cargo today. Most standard cargo containers shipped internationally are NOT filled. It is rare to have one STUFFED. Those that are stuffed are stuffed with LOW density cargo of loose odds and ends boxes which are then palletized. Perishable food is not being shipped interstellarly. Frozen beef, ok, but Mangos? No. Only reason we have this happen today is due to Airshipping so that which took a week or 2 weeks making rotten fruit/veg is now possible. Now add that fresh tastes WAY better along with nationalism and there is no way this is being shipped between stars.

Leaves dry bulk goods, frozen and other. Its not like one is going to ship 500 tons of berries. Actually, it is possible now that I think of it. 500 tons of Strawberries stored @1C can last quite a while, but you better have instantaneous distributino and consumption at the other end.....

500 ton lots of ~widgets. Sorry, do not see it. Especially in universe that has essentially free power and ubiquitous 3d printing machines. I see stuffing an interstellar HV 500ton TEU cargo container with several other large containers, but single product 500ton lots going to a habitat in space instead of an international shipping center to be dumped planetside where vast majority of humanity lives? Sorry, no.

So, HOW

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Even if it takes an extra week to get them to join the train, that's increasing his force strength by nearly 50%.

And 150 SD(P)s dropping out of hyper within 10 million KM of 8th fleet right after she fired her huge salvo would have not have worked out well for one Admiral Harrington or the RMN.

Relax wrote:500 ton lots of ~widgets. Sorry, do not see it. Especially in universe that has essentially free power and ubiquitous 3d printing machines. I see stuffing an interstellar HV 500ton TEU cargo container with several other large containers, but single product 500ton lots going to a habitat in space instead of an international shipping center to be dumped planetside where vast majority of humanity lives? Sorry, no.

So, HOW

You'll have to talk to that Weber dude, who says they ship iron ore profitably. Really, I'm not making that up. Along with wheat.

And the stations are where ALL the ships dock at. It appears to be the break-bulk point for the planet. So you have multiple enormous warehouses that can house the cargo from probably dozens of 8 million ton freighters each until they clear customs and all the fees are paid and the heavy cargo shuttle to the ground is scheduled.

You might ask how this works when they blow the station up and they have no tools with which to unload millions of tons of cargo. Not just the automated cargo handing systems but probably most of the heavy shuttles were on the platform. But that whole story arc bored David...

tlb wrote:

Relax wrote:This brings up a very telling problem... WHO would put up with that population density for very long?

NO ONE would put up with that insane pop density other than dedicated people under MILITARY law/order.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Conclusion: the population density on a civilian habitat must be much lower, so those stations must be huge.

The population density of Manhattan is 25000/km². If this station were an O'Neill cylinder where everyone lived on the inner surface, the inner surface would need to be 800 km². If Hephaestus can be 110 km long, let's say Beowulf Alpha is 40 km long, which gives us a radius of 3.2 km.

This assumes the station has a hollow interior and is probably spinning for simulated gravity. If it is organised like a ship, with multiple decks (whether concentric like a 16th century PD ship or stacked like modern ones), the interior volume can be more efficiently utilised without increasing the surface density.

Calculate a figure for cubic meters per person by multiplying the area for a person to live and work by a height sufficient for that person and the associated environmental support structure (say an area of 100 square meters times another 10 meters for 1000 cubic meters). Then multiply that by the maximum number of people and see what size sphere would hold that volume. One million people could be housed in a sphere with a diameter of about 1241 meters (if I haven't messed up). So 25 million would fit into a sphere with a diameter of about 3.6 kilometers.

I am guessing at the amount of space to devote to each person, but you can play with the idea to get something that you might prefer better.

PS. artificial gravity will be used, not spinning.

I get your calc, but it is not close IMO.

Addressing my main point. NO ONE willingly will live in a submarine. Most people get clausterphobic. Most people want a living quarters etc. Most people want a life outside of their job. This life requires THINGS. This life requires space/volume--> Garage/basement full of junk to tinker with/store/ratpack/just in case..... This life requires some peace and quiet. This life requires fishing(I don't), walking in a park, a window with a view, something to clear your head.

While humanity willingly will put up with 2.5m floor heights, they do not willingly place themselves in a box without a view and no place to stretch their legs. So, yes, if we only look at floor height and living area, a human can survive in next to nothing. Surviving is not living.

The space habitats are supposed to be lived in full time, not transients. This means ball parks, gyms, parks, lakes, trees, flowers, shrubs, sidewalks, avenues, parkways, transport, eating places, etc separate from work.

I am sure somewhere on this world is a hotel selling a room without a window and a view of another hotel room, but I know of no such place. Nor do I know of a 1 room apartment in the Phillipines or even the densest place in Seoul(both places I have been) where there are not windows and a view, let alone in the mature developed part of our world with MUCH larger dwellings and higher living standards.

Honorverse is supposed to have even higher living standards than today. Right? Higher living standards = consume more energy to be MORE COMFORTABLE. More comfortable in that life is easier. Why would anyone in the Honorverse willingly, en masse, live in POORER conditions than today??? They won't.

Relax wrote:Honorverse is supposed to have even higher living standards than today. Right? Higher living standards = consume more energy to be MORE COMFORTABLE. More comfortable in that life is easier. Why would anyone in the Honorverse willingly, en masse, live in POORER conditions than today??? They won't.

Come one, you'd really expect people to spend 30 minutes each way to avoid living in a stupidly expensive closes closet in a rabbit warren? So they could instead live in a 5,000 SF Condo in Landing or a rural estate? Don't be silly. Nobody will spend 30 minutes each way commuting. </sarc>

Sigs wrote:1) Coordination for the attack happens before the attack is launched, not during the attack. I figured it was obvious but I will mention it now, coordination for the attack happens before either fleet moves like days before.

That was quite clear, but it's not what I was referencing. What I meant is that the first force that arrives can't know when or if the attack on the other side starts. So it has to be ready to take on the full forces of the defenders.

Not really. You're exchanging Trevor's Star for 140 of your SD(P)s, about half the force you had available. And there's a good chance 100 of those are surrendered in working conditions that add to the MA battle roster.

Really? You don't know much about the military do you?

I don't know what you meant with this comment. Anyway, I explained my thinking of surrendering in the post above, so I won't repeat here.

Neither will the other side. The Republic will have a hell of a lot more SD(P)'s sooner than the MA would.

See above about construction rates. The Republic takes longer to build an SD(P) than the MA does.

Worst Case scenario the GSN sends 115 SD(P)'s, all of their CLAC's, BC(P)'s and SD's to the Manticore system, the RMN deployes 100% of their SD(P)'s, BC(P)'s and SD's to the manticore system at which point the CO of the RHN fleet retreats, trashes Grendelsbane and captures Grayson because they were idiots and are defensless. So the MA is reduced to Manticore with 197 SD(P)'s combined Strength but only 35 SD(P)'s under construction. No Trevor's Star, no Grayson.

That's not the Worst Case Scenario. That's when the RHN fleets discover they face overwhelming odds and disengaage before losing too many ships or any at all.

Worst Case Scenario is when they don't discover that until too late. I'm arguing that there are far worse situations that could happen, under reasonable conditions.

Note also your plan does not have any SD(P)s in Haven or any of the primary systems. In the scenario you've just painted above, the forces in Trevor's Star can race the RHN to see who arrives first. I suppose the contingency orders would be "if you have to disengage, send 80 ships to Haven and 50 to each of the other Top 3 systems." Which is of comparable size to what the MA could launch out of Trevor's Star, without uncovering the system entirely.

1) If the 6 SD(P)'s they send to Marsh were to be redeployed, they would be redeployed to one of the two systems short on SD(P)'s not the one system that holds the majority of the SD(P)'s.

That's likely, but that's not a given. You can't count on the RMN doing that.

2) Even if they did deploy 18 SD(P)'s(Marsh+PO) to Trevor's Star that still would be 104 SD(P)'s. SD's are irrelevant because the RHN ALSO has SD's.

See above for a discussion on SDs towing pods. MA missiles are still better than Havenite ones and they are in a system that as a lot more missile pods besides those tractored.

4) If someone told them that the RHN was coming they would also tell them that there are 2 fleets and one is going to Manticore, if they had to choose I would say Manticore gets the bigger fleet not Trevor's Star.

Intelligence could drop the ball on half the information. Or human failure: Jurgensen and Janacek call it preposterous that the RHN would attack Manticore, but prepare for an attack on Trevor's Star.

And even then, preparing for an attack on Manticore could still mean leaving the forces at Trevor's Star and simply be ready to transit when the attack does commence there.

Anyway, OpSec failure need not have happened.

It doesn't matter. If 3rd Fleet with their 46 SD(P)'s had crushed Giscard without breaking a sweat the war is over. If Higgins had crushed the 32 SD(P)'s in Grendelsbane with his 7 SD(P)'s its over. Once the MA realizes that their SD(P)'s are vastly superior to the RHN they can free up 50 SD(P)'s and go after Haven.

That I don't dispute, but that's not the scenario I was painting. I did mean that Third Fleet would suffer losses. My argument (see other post and see above) that losing too many ships could compromise Haven's ability to continue the war after the first battle.

Giscard clearly had orders not to sacrifice his fleet, so he also left without firing a single shot.

Nope, the odds went from 2-1 to 1.16-1. If there were only 46 SD(P)'s in Trevor's Star he would have attacked, if he had 80 SD(P)'s more and the GSN send 40 SD(P)'s he would still attack.

We are in agreement: he had orders not to sacrifice his fleet if the odds were not in his favour.

You are right, the RHN should wait until they are 100% sure of victory and every individual scenario is covered.

No, that's not what I am arguing, though knowing 100% chance of victory would be nice. I am arguing for a less risky plan that has most of the advantages. Balance the risk/reward ratio a little more.

Where would those 190 SD(P)'s come from? Who is guarding Grayson and Grendelsbane?

The thinking is:
1) Honor is back at Trevor's Star, with the Protector's Own, the GSN detachment and Third Fleet (that is, combine the Marsh and Trevor's Star forces from the real Thunderbolt)

2) attack commences in Trevor's Star. CO on scene does not detect the additional forces and moves into the hyperlimit. Because he hasn't seen them until too late, they're out of position and unprepared, so the damage is far worse than the 104-to-180 odds would look like. RHN forces disengage with heavy losses (120 ships leave), destroying or mission-killing only 40 SD(P)s. MA forces rush back to the Junction and rearm.

3) attack in Manticore starts late. The system is already on lockdown due to Case Zulu. The call to Trevor's Star goes out via Hermes, which Haven does not know Manticore has (they didn't know in 1921). CO on scene presses on and moves to attack Home Fleet. Home Fleet flushes all its pods and gets destroyed, but takes 40 of the 140 ships with them, damaging several more.

4) forces from Trevor's Star transit and make single-leg jump to the hyperlimit. Let's say that's 48 SD(P)s, less than half of what began the fight in Trevor's Star. But that's exactly as many as Third Fleet had at the Battle of Manticore. And since Honor is leading, they pre-deployed pods. They begin long-range attack on the RHN force still in-system.

5) Havenite CO surrenders, with about 40 of his ships in repairable condition.

6) Manticore sends relief force to Grendelsbane (one squadron only), which is a closer trip from Manticore than from Trevor's Star, so they arrive before any of the 100 RHN ships that left Trevor's Star can get there. Not all ships from Trevor's Star go there, because someone has to go to Haven to defend it. 32 RHN ships with battle damage arrive, and see 13 MA SD(P)s defending it and on full alert.

RHN losses: 140 SD(P)s in Manticore and 60 in Trevor's Star, 7 more attacking Grendelsbane. RHN has 113 SD(P)s left.

MA losses: 7 SD(P)s in Grendelsbane, 14 SD(P)s in Home Fleet and 50 from those that started in Trevor's Star. MA has 114 SD(P)s left and has 40 captured RHN ships.

IAN joins the party and adds 42 SD(P)s.

Really? What is your argument here? That some how, someway the GSN would go to a card reading, find out that the RHN is launching attack on 15 September 1919 at 2200, against Trevor's Star with 180 SD(P)'s and 24 CLAC's. And they will launch an attack on Manticore on 16 September 1919 at 1000 with 150 SD(P)'s. So they will take that to Janasek and Highridge and show them what the psycic said and get them to deploy all of the RMN along with all of the GSN in Trevor's Star to take on the first attack, after they crush 2nd Fleet without taking any losses they teleport to the Terminal, go to Manticore and Teleport to a blocking position with all 197 SD(P)'s, 66 CLAC's and 46 BC(P)'s against 150 SD(P)'s of the RHN, crush them and then Teleport back to the Terminal, go to Trevor's Star and attack the RoH.

No, see above. The two only things I did besides what really did happen in Thunderbolt was to have Honor back early and to have the Havenite CO fail to detect the additional forces until too late. There's no magic, no super spy, no extreme superiority of MA forces, no unexpected IAN forces. Yes, I did give the MA forces a lot of luck, but no more than what could really happen in a worst-case scenario.

If Giscard had similarly failed to detect the additional forces, he was risking 100 ships, not 180. And he knew there were forces protecting Haven.

Uhm… 1st Fleet? After they take on the 12 SD(P)s of Home Fleet., make the SKM surrender they can do as they please.

What happens if they had to abort? Well, ok, if they do abort attack on Manticore, they redirect to Grendelsbane and then the MA can't outbuild them. We go back to what really did happen, except that the attack on Trevor's Star risked 180 ships instead of 100.

Would you give your COs orders to either launch on time or not launch at all? That would greatly reduce the risk. If the force attacking Trevor's Star aborts, the force attacking Manticore will arrive to see the system at peace. They should abort too, since they know Third Fleet could jump in behind them. If the force attacking Manticore aborts, the force in Trevor's Star is alone in that 104-vs-180 scenario.

There's also the possibility that both forces abort, then meet back in Haven and need to explain to Theisman how they went all the way and yet nothing happened.

The problem with the DBs is not that it's complex, it's that you invite a bad defeat for one or both of the forces if something does happen.

And what are the chances that happens?

Non-negligible and THAT is the problem.

He send 40 SD(P)'s to Trevor's Star with 8 CLAC's. He send 12 SD(P)'s and 6 CLAC's to Marsh. That left him with say 40 SD(P)'s for Home Fleet and 23 SD(P)'s for a QRF along with 10 SD(P)'s and about 30 BC(P)'s. This was a reserve for whatever might be needed.

(I assume you meant "with 10 CLACs")

And that's a good argument for why the High Admiral kept some CLACs back.

Yet they came at the nick of time, like the day before or the day of the attack? What if the CO had stopped for coffee and a donut at the junction forts? Or they left a day later?

Complain to David. He wrote the book where that happened. I didn't change the GSN detachment being in Trevor's Star. My change was to bring Honor home early.

What if the additional forces weren't there or Honor arrived a day late? Then Haven wins. But that's best case scenario, not worst case scenario.

What if they are heading away from the junction for an hour or two at maximum acceleration? how long do they need to slow down and reverse direction? Can they make it before 1st Fleet gets to Manticore?

They can if that fleet was two hours late. See the scenario above.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That's not the Worst Case Scenario. That's when the RHN fleets discover they face overwhelming odds and disengaage before losing too many ships or any at all.

Worst Case Scenario is when they don't discover that until too late. I'm arguing that there are far worse situations that could happen, under reasonable conditions.

No, the really worst case is that their weapons are far less effective against the RMN than they expect and their fleets essentially get obliterated by the RMN while the RMN takes pretty minimal damage in return.

That's ALL their fleets. Game Over.

Relax wrote:I get your calc, but it is not close IMO.

Addressing my main point. NO ONE willingly will live in a submarine. Most people get clausterphobic. Most people want a living quarters etc. Most people want a life outside of their job. This life requires THINGS. This life requires space/volume--> Garage/basement full of junk to tinker with/store/ratpack/just in case..... This life requires some peace and quiet. This life requires fishing(I don't), walking in a park, a window with a view, something to clear your head.

Then scale the habitat up. Why are we arguing that it isn't big enough? Were figures for its size given anywhere? I don't remember.

Let's say a reasonable, high quality standard of living is 0.02 cubic kilometres (1 km² × 20 m) per person. This habitat would need to be 440,000 km³ in internal volume. That's a sphere 47.2 km in radius.

A more reasonable number would be 100 m² × 10 m = 1000 m³ per person of private accommodations, plus some leisure, commerce, retail, etc, and some engineering spaces overhead, per group of people. Let's say that's 1 km² * 10 m = 10000 m³ for every 10 people, just because that's the same volume as the private accommodations. 22 million people times 2000 m³ is 44 km³, or a sphere with a radius of 2.19 km, or a cylinder 4 km long and with a radius of 1.32 km.

Even if we use only the internal surface and no decks, the same 200 m²/person is a cylinder 16 km long and with a base radius of 3.5 km. And that's 200 m² per person, not per family. A family of 4 would rate a 400 m² private living space on the ground floor. (For the square metre challenged: 400 m² is 4305 sq. ft)

In any case, in 2000 years the human needs can change. Two or three hundred years ago people wouldn't have put up with the "tiny horribly expensive closets" that many habitations are in New York.