ThinksMarkedly wrote:
They can. This depends on range, of course, but they can easily tell a DuQuesne-class SD from an unknown class. They won't know initially that the unknown, bigger ships (the Sovereigns of Space) are SD(P)s, but they'll know which ones aren't. The range matters, but if you consider that the inner system will be swarming with RDs way before the fleets make contact, there's a good chance they can tell that half the force is of targets-only ships before engagement.
I don't think it would be that easy to especially considering some of the new ships could be a new SD design. But it doesn't matter because my bigger concern would be scaring 3rd Fleet away. If 2nd Fleet shows up in the system with 250 of the wall against 100 of the wall and they figure out that the RHN brought in 180 Wallers vs the RMN's 46 they would likely retreat rather than get destroyed for nothing especially since this represents 56% of the entire SD(P) force of the RMN. Depends on how well the terminal is defended with forts, I would retreat to the terminal and let them have the system for now which would cause 1st Fleet problems, not insurmountable problems but bigger casualties type of problems.
I agree with that, I just don't think it'll get to that in the first place.
Why not? Their plan backfired, I don't know if they wanted to take back their territory and Trevor's Star for a stronger negotiating position or they wanted to beat the SKM into submission but it backfired and they knew there was always a chance that in a prolonged war the RMN will come up with some game changing tech. So for their long term survival the best type would have been a risk up front rather than prolong the war.
If the RHN massed all its 315 SD(P)s for a surprise attack on the MBS, it might succeed. It has a chance of defeating Home Fleet and 3rd Fleet in detail, like Beatrice later planned to do (and did). Dividing the Havenite forces to attack both the Home Fleet and Third Fleet dilutes the Havenite strength and invites its own defeat in detail, at the expense of Trevor's Star.
What would worry me is that it might end up with 46 RMN SD(P)'s, 40 GS SD(P)'s and 1,000 Katana's on the wrong side of the Terminal, if you do something that pisses them off they can wreak Haven and all the other core systems just as easily as you can wreak Manticore because if the Junction Forts refuse to surrender you have to rush back fast to stop them. If you split the fleet and 2nd Fleet CO determines it is safer to retreat then you have a major force to protect Haven and the core systems, but if you take Manticore with 315 SD(P)'s there is nothing to stop 3rd Fleet and the GSN TF.
Worst case scenario from the POV of the RHN is that the RMN has deployed 50 SD's to both Marsh and Grendelsbane and kept all the SD(P)'s home and the GSN sends the Protector's Own as well while at the same time both 3rd Fleet and the GSN TF retreat to Manticore because then the RHN would be facing more firepower than they can fight off. But what are the chances that the GSN would send the Protector's Own the Manticore and the RMN would basically abandon Marsh and Grendelsbane especially considering the number of ships in the system?
The Realistic worst case would be the entire allied SD(P) force from Trevor's Star abandons the system to preserve the fleet, comes back just in time to threaten the RHN fleet from behind. Problem is if the RHN fleet punches through Home Fleet and goes into orbit they can basically hold a gun to the SKM's head by threatening the industry around Manticore and Sphinx. At which point they will control Trevor's Star and if things don't go their way they can wreak a large portion of the SKM's industry on their way out and likely will still be able to fight their way through 3rd Fleet and the GSN TF and if they cant escape they sure as hell can put a dent in the MA's SD(P) inventory and take out the SKM's industry on their way out.
For a Hail Mary, I agree. But for anything short of that, stripping the systems bare or practically bare is recklessness. I'm not saying skimming a division or two, but completely stripping. You don't know if an enemy fleet is in position to attack.
True, but counting on the enemy to do things the same way you would do it is a recipe for disaster. After the RHN took back almost all of the systems they lost in the first war, they were just waiting for their new construction to come in so they can end the war with minimal loss of life on both sides, having forward deployed forces ties down significant number of SD(P)'s just in Grayson and Manticore but it also forces the MA to deploy SD(P)'s to the minor allies as well. Pull those SD(P)'s back into the republic and the MA will be more willing to take risks, small risks but skimming off of the RMN,GSN,IAN Home Fleets even if its a squadron each, and then skim from the minor allies gives 8th Fleet quite the firepower which means that Solon would have to happen with 70+ SD(P)'s not 18 SD(P)s. And good luck covering more systems if you have to increase each ambush fleet by 50% of what it was in Lovat and 400% of what it was in Solon.
I realise this is what you're saying: that Haven needed to maintain some fleets in position to threaten those systems in case they were stripped. But I counter that by saying Haven didn't need to have the fleets in position, only to create reasonable doubt that the fleets could be in position. The MA intelligence can't know for certain that all the 620 SD(P)s are beyond a month's travel from Manticore.
Out of sight out of mind. The MA would be more open to take small risks by uncovering some less vital systems if there is no obvious and immediate threat. Between the three main allies they have 632 SD/DN's in service, having 80 SD's in a minor allied system backed by a ton of pods frees up 11 SD(P)'s per system, maybe more, yeah you might tie down 400 obsolete SD's in defence of 5 systems but you get to free up 50-60 SD(P)'s for offensive action and/or a strategic reserve, and that's assuming there are only 5 minor allies with SD(P) picket and it could very well be more.
If the GSN has a bunch of forts guarding Blackbird backed by a lot of pods they may be willing to kick free some SD(P)'s from their Home Fleet including the Protector's Own. I imagine that the MA is more open to take risks with the empire than the allied members closer to the republic, I think New Berlin had a strong HF but the rest of the empire might be rather poorly defended with SD(P)'s and might have mostly SD's for defence.
There's also the delay time. Even if all the MA scouts managed to pinpoint 600 SD(P)s, the travel time from those scouts to Trevor's Star is two or three weeks. The reinforced Eighth Fleet would take another four to six weeks to attack its target and get back, releasing the Home Fleet ships back. That's anywhere between 4 to 9 weeks those ships weren't defending the home system, which is more than enough time for the ships that were pinpointed to leave on an attack operation.
Those SD(P)'s would be gone for a hell of a lot longer than 9 weeks, Camille depended on the allies attacking, if the allies have doubts they would switch up, I mean it is obvious that the RHN caught on to the RMN's selection criteria, hit something more important and with a heavier picket while the rest of the republican fleet is guarding secondary systems or training for an operation. The RHN cant be strong everywhere so they have to pick the most likely systems to defend with ambush fleets, if the MA switches up the criteria for round three because they have a large influx of SD(P)'s, and since the republic is a democracy once again the President might be forced to bow to pressure at least in the short term and break up 2nd fleet into smaller pickets but once they lose the initiative they may have a hard time getting it back.
And even then you don't need a lot of ships. Two or three dozen SD(P)s are more than enough of a menace to keep the Home Fleets where they are, especially when you don't know when they could be suddenly reinforced.
If the MA takes a risk, they might be able to force the RHN to disperse their wallers to protect a lot of system simply because the republic is a democracy and in a democracy demands for protection carry more weight than in many other forms of government. Having a Fleet in being of 150 means that the MA HAS to honor the threat because they could cause a lot of damage to Manticore and Grayson if they attacked, they might not survive but if they were send on an offensive they can do damage to the war effort that the allies might never recover from.
There's absolutely no way that Haven had three 150 SD(P) fleets in close proximity to Manticore and/or Trevor's Star, for the simple reason that if they did, Theisman wouldn't have needed to ask permission to start preparations for Beatrice. Those ships would be the preparation. And he wouldn't have attacked with 335 ships, but with 450.
I wasn't clear in my statement, 150 SD(P)'s in 3 fleets of 50 SD(P)'s not 3 fleets of 150 SD(P)'s. Having a fleet of 50 SD(P)'s is strong enough that the MA has to gather a major force to take it, a force they cannot raise at the moment while the RHN can at any moment consolidate all 3 fleets into one system to be a little more menacing if they so choose. Having a force of 150 RHN SD(P)'s in the region keeps the SKM's HF at ~50 SD(P)'s, the GSN HF at ~60 SD(P)'s and the minor allies at between 50-90 between the lot of them. Having 150 SD(P)'s ties down anywhere between 160 to 200 Alliance SD(P)'s.
Terminology issue here. I'm using secondary and core systems interchangeably here to mean systems like Solon and Lovat, though "core" encompasses both secondary and primary. Primary would be Haven, Bolthole and at most one or two more.
To me a core system is a system with SD(P) construction capabilities. Losing economic centers hurts, losing 1/8-1/4 of your capital shipbuilding capability and the ships under construction hurts more. Also in this group would be major CLAC yards and LAC yards. I believe in the book it said Lovat was in the top 20 systems in the republic but near the bottom of the top 20 so that's a lot of systems with more warfighting industry that could be considered core systems.
So the ambush fleets don't need to travel. They are already in position. With 500 SD(P)s available, you put 100 in Haven, 100 more in Bolthole, 50 in each of the other two primary systems, you have 200 left for ambush fleets. Giscard's fleet was 4 squadrons strong, or 32 ships only. In that math, you could have 6 different ambush fleets, with enough left overs for decoys. Ditto for four 6-squadron fleets.
Giscard's Fleet was of 48 SD(P)'s with only 32 SD(P)'s being destroyed before Bogey 4 was out of range. And if I remember correctly the list that the alliance was picking from had something like 30+ systems on it. So you would have 4 Ambush Fleets of 48 sD(P)'s covering 4 systems out of 30+ unless the MA decides to change tactics and go after one of the more important systems. The RoH has at least 19 systems more important than Lovat, so they have permanent fleet covering 4 of those systems and maybe 1-2 ambush fleets will cover some of the rest because likely some of those systems will not meet the criteria for cutworm I,II,III. So basically it would be 5-6 of your 20 most important systems will have SD(P)'s 2 of the most likely trgets outside of those 20 systems will be covered and the rest of the republic will not be covered.
And I didn't include any of the older SDs nor the working-up SD(P)s. Those aren't good enough for an attack in the MBS, but they can serve as decoys while they work up and do serve as deterrents.
They cant serve as decoys if the sensors can tell an SD from an SD(P) based on their readings.
Ok, that's a good point, the Grayson Home Fleet needs to be split between Uriel and the inner system, as neither can be left uncovered. The thing is that each is in position to mutually support the other: should a force drop in on Uriel, a chunk of the inner system force is split off and pins the attacker between two forces. Similarly for someone dropping in the inner system. And if the attacker divides between both, then the ratio is closer to balance.
I would say the yards would have to be protected by a large number of forts since its a shipyard with dispersed yards around a moon. Forts with a couple of hundred thousand pods and 5,000 Katana's should make it a very hard nut to crack.
Eighth Fleet had been defeated by 4 squadrons.
They were defeated by 2 squadrons and 1 division.
If they manage to defeat it again with something similar, they'd execute Camille.
If. But there are 30-40 targets on the list now since the MA knows about the ambush fleets, with some new construction and taking some chances they can free up 48 SD(P)'s for one or two quick missions where the aim is to draw out the ambush fleet and crush one or two of its task forces through superior numbers, Solon and Lovat had the same basic structure, the difference was that Lovat had a force 2.5 times bigger because they were expecting a stronger show from 8th Fleet. If they can predict where the different TF's would come out they can outnumber them locally and crush them individually. Trip the ambush, wait until they enter your engagement area and come in behind two of the 12 SD(P) task forces with 20 SD(P)'s of your own in each, once you clear them you hit the other two if you can all the while you are being covered by a very, very, very large number of Katana's, like every LAC you bring is a Katana.
If Eighth Fleet had been substantially reinforced (which we have to assume they also assumed, so they wouldn't have deployed the exact same ambush force level), they'd go for a stronger response. Which I repeat does not mean Beatrice.
Depends on the damage done, if 8th Fleet goes for gold and trashes one of the RoH's important systems with plenty of political clout whatever the RHN planned might be shelved in order to appease the politicians just like the RMN was forces after Icarus.
And still, this is the very time they have to do it. If the attack is so strong that they have no choice but to launch Beatrice, that also means they have no time to lose. Having to assemble those forces and train them means you could miss your last chance to win the war.
Like I said before, if its that desperate a situation I would forget about training and do it live with every ship I can get my hands on in a reasonable timeframe.
Agreed, which is why it wasn't an emergency. It was a contingency.
It's still an emergency, a contingency is a plan. If they had made no prep for Beatrice in an emergency they would have done it very quickly by grabbing every ship they can get their hands on and going for the win without worrying about practice. There is a contingency for a war between Canada and the US and between the US and EU, if there is an emergency that brings about a war it doesn't make it less of an emergency just that there is a plan to act on.
No, that's not what I am saying. I am saying confuse the RDs that should be there, not show your hand. This is just a clever sleight of hand: show a squadron here, a squadron there, to keep ONI from knowing where the full force is. As I said in another post, send some empty fleet trains to the middle of nowhere, pretend to unload, then come back. That way, you can hide the actual fleet trains in the uncertainty. The point is to make ONI believe more systems had ambush forces than there actually were or, alternatively, from knowing which ones did have and which ones didn't.
If you send a squadron of SD(P)'s somewhere you have to send a squadron of SD(P)'s, if you try to be sneaky the RD's might catch you. But more importantly you end up looking real sloppy, real quick if they keep seeing all this movement when before they caught nothing so someone will ask the question why is the RHN suddenly so sloppy.
My point is that those ambush forces have to be out there, hiding, but they can't survive indefinitely without resupply or refit. It's those missions that allow ONI to know where a force is or isn't.
Not really, its the RMN sending decoy forces and drawing out the Ambush Fleets that lets them know where they are. But even then they go by looking at their target selection, and try to figure which one would be the most likely target for them to hit based on the RHN's thinking and then either avoid those systems or hit those systems depending on your end goal.
I disagree, for two reasons. One, Eighth Fleet can take on 6 SD(P)s and a few CLACs.
8th Fleet had 2 SD(P)'s in Solon, there was no way they were walking away from that one if they went toe to toe with 6 SD(P)'s. In solon they ran as fast as they can and still lost 1 SD(P), 3 BC(P)'s and a third of the LAC's, if they had intentionally gone against 3-1 odds they would have had to walk home since their ships would not be in one piece at the end of the battle.
Second, there are probably several systems with that force-level visible, which means Eighth Fleet would have no targets it sees no defenders at all. It has to choose one to attack. The real trick here is how you choose: how do you determine that those 6 SD(P)s are all that the system has to defend and haven't been reinforced in the two months since the scout last visited the system?
continue scouting until you get there, set up shop in an empty system close to 2 or 3 prospective targets and continue scouting, instead of intel being weeks or months out of date 8th Fleet would have up to date information. If they see 6 SD(P)'s going into the system but none come out and they cant find the SD(P)'s they might reach the conclusion its a decoy, if they see the same trick played out over a few systems they may see a pattern and actually catch one or more of those Squadrons in the process of coming into the system or sneaking out of the system.
Yes, I would. The whole point of an ambush fleet is to remain hidden. So the fact that the MA can't find the ships doesn't mean they aren't there. They could be elsewhere.
The fact that I cant find the fleets means I will then hit a target so far out of my target selection that would pretty much guarantee that you wont have a covering force.
I'm arguing that working up to Beatrice and preparing ambush fleets are not mutually exclusive options.
They are in a democracy. When you don't have enough ships to protect the republic, people start demanding answers and protection, when you keep losing infrastructure in your systems people end up really pissed and things happen, things that undermine the government not to mention the moral of the fleet when they cant defend the republic.
But even if they are, Eighth Fleet's target list was shrinking, since they were going for bigger and more important targets every time. Turning around and trashing a tertiary system doesn't help the war effort -- does, in fact, hinder it, because it cedes the initiative.
Trashing 3rd rate systems helps the war effort by forcing the RoH government to spend resources in emergency aid to the system, those resources cannot be used to build more SD(P)'s. How many systems losing their industry would it take and the RHN being unable to stop 8th Fleet before systems start seceding from the RoH?
So Sanskrit would launch an attack on a system that was at least on the same level as Solon, with a higher likelihood for those more important.
Unless I didn't want to run into an ambush and go for weaker targets. Just because they were leading up to something doesn't mean they have to follow through with it, in fact it means they should switch up. Hitting 9 smaller targets deep in the republic while a couple of hundred SD's hit up all the systems that the RHN captured at the beginning of the war because they are now defenceless seems like a win to me and the RoH moral will tank because they are back to where they were in 1915.
So you're saying that the RHN added 400 ships between March and June 1921? And they didn't need working up?
How long would a work up period take? A month? Two maybe? During wartime it would be condensed, a month or two followed by a deployment to a squadron for continued work up on station.
So by march the first 100 SD(P)'s are finishing their 60 days Workup, by April another batch of 100 SD(P)'s is finishing their workup, by May its another 100, by June its another 100, coincidently the 100 SD(P)'s he mentioned working up.
