How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Sigs wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:Though war is the continuation of politics by other means. Winning the war in one stroke doesn't really serve the restored Haven Republic's political ends. It makes it hard to establish a lasting non-hostile peace with Manticore and it utterly undermines their attempts to show that they're not like the Committee of Public Safety or Hereditary President Harris's government.

If they attack, and in one blow they take out Home Fleet and their 23 SD(P)'s, then force the SKM to surrender they could dictate terms. Those terms don't have to be insane and they don't have to be punitive but they can show the galaxy they are different by offering their terms, coming to an agreement without conquering the SKM or destroying their industry.

If the attack worked. But if they miscalculated or their new MDMs and SD(P)s weren't up to taking on the Manticore system's defenses then they've poisoned their diplomatic good name, in addition to their military losses, and now they're in an unpleasant position both militarily and diplomatically.

But yes, I'd forgotten that over half of Manticore's active SD(P)s were concentrated at Trevor's Star. So even with whatever fixed defenses it had Manticore was probably at most no tougher a target than 3rd fleet was at Trevor's Star.

Though you do have to worry about 3rd fleet popping through the Junction behind you and getting pinned inside the hyper limit, or in the RZ, between 3rd and Home Fleets. Which in the event might be even worse since most of the GSN's wallers would presumably follow 3rd fleet and become part of that mousetrapping relief force. Unless, that is, you can throw enough additional forces at Trevor's Star to ensure that you prevent 3rd from using the Terminus.


So militarily, concentrating the forces to hit Manticore would have been arguably less risky than simultaneously hitting Grendelsbane, Marsh, and Trevor's Star. But if they didn't manage to knock out Manticore in one hit... (Possibly because they trashed home fleet but ran rather than getting pinned between Manticore's fixed defenses and 3rd + the GSN)

Sigs wrote:If the RHN had 620 SD(P)'s, and 100 SD(P)'s are working up therefore non operational for the moment that would leave the RHN with 520 SD(P)'s to protect Haven, Bolthole man the main front, secondary front, core systems and the ambush fleets.

I'll repeat: there's no secondary front and the "primary" front is the Republic Core Systems. Trying to be strong everywhere means you're weak everywhere. The RHN had to defend the core systems, not the relatively unimportant ones that happen to be gelactographically close to Grayson, Manticore or Trevor's Star. Just look at the list of targets for Cutworm I, II and II.

The ambush fleets are the core systems' protection.

1) General offensive against the minor allies shows lack of confidence and/or weakness because they are going after secondary systems rather than the primary. The RHN might destroy a dozen SD(P)'s and a few dozen obsolete SD's but it doesn't change the warfighting abilities of the MA.

2) An offensive against Grayson or the Andermani Empire.
i. Grayson could be a viable target, it is almost as well defended as Manticore in terms of fixed defences, but it only has one Fleet that defends it and likely wont be able to call for reinforcements in time. A victory here allows the message to be loud and clear, we crushed a major alliance fleet, took out the industry of a major alliance nation we can do it to you. Bonus points if the RHN gets the victory with minimal casualties and 240 vs ~60 seem like great odds. The RoH get's their message across but face one fleet of ~60 SD(P)'s rather than face 3 individual fleets totaling 130 SD(P)'s. Also there is less of a chance that any reinforcements that become available to the alliance will be in Grayson as opposed to Manticore.

On the other hand, it has only one site for significant industrial war-fighting production and that's around the Uriel gas giant (where the Blackbird base is located). The gas giant is outside the star's hyperlimit but has a hyperlimit of its own that is in similar to the missile's range (50-60 million km). And unlike RMN Home Fleet, the GSN Home Fleet protecting Blackbird is likely 100% SD(P) and many of which are likely Harrington II. So any attack on Blackbird is likely to find a very tough, concentrated wall in exactly the best position it can be to defend the yards, which the RHN would need to go through before it could attack the yards. 3:1 superiority wouldn't suffice: they'd have to send all 335 SD(P)s in.

3) An offensive against Trevor's Star, this is a less dangerous option because the RHN would face 90 SD(P)'s but Home Fleet will likely not intervene and expose Manticore. Trevor's Star is heavily defended but not at the level of Grayson or Manticore. The problem with Trevor's Star is that they are likely the training area for any new Alliance SD(P)'s they would be there working up so there is a chance that they may face 50-100 SD(P)'s working up in the system, not likely but the chance is there.

And 4) an offensive against Basilisk, which puts a wrinkle in the Manticore-Andermani-Silesia traingle and is sovereign territory of Manticore. It's a much smaller effort for large symbolic gain.

I am not arguing about their planning Beatrice, I am arguing them moving forward with Beatrice and gathering ships and logistical support for the operation. It's one thing to have a plan and dust it off in case you need it, or have a plan and stockpile ammunition ahead of time and its a whole different thing to be deploying 45+% of their Operational SD(P)'s for a contingency they really didn't intent to execute.

Theisman was quite clear that it would take a long time to activate Beatrice if they needed it, unless they started preparing before Lovat. That extra month or two might mean a second attack by Eighth Fleet, at a level that wouldn't be acceptable (though we know that wouldn't have happened).

Sigs wrote:How long can you keep that up? A day, week, month, two months? If it was so easy the intelligence for either side would be non existent. They would have to put dozens of republic systems on essentially lockdown to keep the MA from finding out. If the RHN keeps sending the same fleet in an out of the system to confuse a RD that may or may not be there means those SD(P)'s are not used for the system defence, and if they are the last thing you want is to have your picket caught out of position.

Why would the systems be on lockdown? All I'm saying is that the ambush fleets keep translating up and down and never in full force. How does that affect civilian traffic?

Also, those SDs are the system defence. They are not just for show, they are available to intercept any attacking thrust. Look at the Battle of Solon: Giscard split his forces in 4 task forces and each was coming at Eighth Fleet from different directions, only one of which was from inside the hyperlimit. That means 75% of the forces were waiting outside the inner system.

And do remember that this is the most recent battle prior to the Theisman-Pritchart meeting we're talking about. This was an ambush strategy that did work.

If what you are suggesting was a legitimate option they would have done it during the first war and hidden all of their ship movements and ONI would know be able to confirm movements of BB's from secondary systems let alone SD's from primary systems.

I'm sure they tried, though I'm also going to give Theisman and his admiralty bonus points for being more clever than McQueen and her predecessors. Intelligence is a long, painstaking process of educated guessing and the more data you have, the more educated your guesses can be. For the first war, Manticore had been gathering intel for literally decades and knew exactly which shipyards the PRH had. For the second war, they clearly dropped the ball and they had no idea of the output of the single most important shipyard, much less the ability to picket it to see the ships launching. ONI under Janacek probably reduced efforts because they thought they could just crush Haven with technology if needed. Rebuilding the networks takes time, something the White Haven Admiralty didn't have time for.

Most of those extra ships I am arguing about would have been coming out of the yards and finishing their workup within the previous few months, so until March-May 1921 the RHN would have been 400-500 SD(P)'s. They were just getting their numbers up and offensives would have happened sooner rather than later.

These numbers support the 620 total. The meeting we're talking about happened probably in April 1921, so the 100 ships working up have just been added to the 500 from your count.

Sigs wrote:

tlb wrote:That part is simple, since it requires a technology that is previously unknown. If Haven had it, then it would have been integrated into their war plans.

Unless they were planning on using it and Lovat happened. Now they are panicking because there is an EE violation, actually several of them and they are saying its not us...

Doesn't matter at that point. The fact that 239 of 240 SD(P)s that arrived have turned away from battle and the CO of the attacking fleet begins parley is sufficient motivation to continuing it. As long as Tourville is in a meeting room or in a pinnace light-minutes away from his forces, he's not commanding those forces.

The moment Honor sits down with Lester, she'll know he's telling the truth. And both the Queen and White Haven know of her ability -- not to mention Nimitz, Samantha and Ariel -- so they'll trust her and them when they report Lester's sincerity to negotiate and that the RHN had nothing to do with the Yawata Strike.

Yes, but this is before Cachet and Zilwicki, months before that. As far as the SKM is concerned the RoH tried to or succeeded in assassinating several high ranking members of the SKM or their allies and then they blew up the industry of the Home System in a similar fashion to how they assassinated Allen Summervale and tried to assassinate the Queen. Then promptly came into the HS with a massive fleet and denied it happened.

Before their return with Simões and the intel on the Alignment, yes. But after their departure to Mesa, which happened after they met with Honor aboard HMS Imperator at Trevor's Star, telling her that Haven wasn't responsible for the attempted assassination of Queen Berry and that therefore a third party was interfering with the war.

Sigs wrote:If they attack, and in one blow they take out Home Fleet and their 23 SD(P)'s, then force the SKM to surrender they could dictate terms. Those terms don't have to be insane and they don't have to be punitive but they can show the galaxy they are different by offering their terms, coming to an agreement without conquering the SKM or destroying their industry.

That's if they succeed. And what if they don't?

If they put all their eggs in one basket and lose, then all they accomplished is to restart the war, with no other gains and with the Manties really, really angered. By attacking multiple targets, the successes can accumulate and any failures are not detrimental to the total. Which is what happened: the attack on Trevor's Star failed, but that wasn't critical.

I don't think Thunderbolt was any better. If they found out that the RHN needed 10-1 odds to defeat one alliance SD(P) or even 5-1 odds it would have been game over any way. Can't really attack the SKM, find out that your new tech isn't really up to standard and call a timeout until you figure it out.

There's a big difference when defending Manticore or defending Grendelsbane or a captured ex-PRH system. In one case, you can beat a retreat and in the other you can't. For that reason, the margin of superiority that the RHN needed to win in Maastricht was far smaller than to win in Manticore.

In other words, the same number of SD(P)s can win in the captured systems, Marsh, Grendelsbane and Trevor's Star but not in Manticore, even if the number of defenders were exactly the same.

tlb wrote:That part is simple, since it requires a technology that is previously unknown. If Haven had it, then it would have been integrated into their war plans.

Sigs wrote:Unless they were planning on using it and Lovat happened. Now they are panicking because there is an EE violation, actually several of them and they are saying its not us...

To repeat what I have said several times before: Oyster Bay was planned and executed so that there was NO EE violation. The book takes care to emphasize this. Debris of an attack falling onto a planet does not count.

Jonathan_S wrote:If the attack worked. But if they miscalculated or their new MDMs and SD(P)s weren't up to taking on the Manticore system's defenses then they've poisoned their diplomatic good name, in addition to their military losses, and now they're in an unpleasant position both militarily and diplomatically.

But yes, I'd forgotten that over half of Manticore's active SD(P)s were concentrated at Trevor's Star. So even with whatever fixed defenses it had Manticore was probably at most no tougher a target than 3rd fleet was at Trevor's Star.

Though you do have to worry about 3rd fleet popping through the Junction behind you and getting pinned inside the hyper limit, or in the RZ, between 3rd and Home Fleets. Which in the event might be even worse since most of the GSN's wallers would presumably follow 3rd fleet and become part of that mousetrapping relief force. Unless, that is, you can throw enough additional forces at Trevor's Star to ensure that you prevent 3rd from using the Terminus.

The RHN has ~330 SD(P)'s at the start of the war counting the 10 they lost at Marsh. They also have 200 SD's in active service, at the beginning of the war I don't know if the RMN can distinguish between which one is an SD(P) and which one is an SD just through sensors.

So sending a force of 100 SD(P)'s which are really just 50 SD(P)'s and the rest are SD's with 12 CLAC's for support. First Fleet with their 140 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's and 36 CLAC's is in a in open space a few hours time away from Manticore waiting, they send a DB with an official cover as a news crew, government DB or something like that from an unoccupied system near Manticore, through Manticore through the Junction to a system where a DB for 2nd Fleet is waiting which relays the news to 2nd Fleet hidden away in open space near Trevor's Star. Then 2nd Fleet sends confirmation and a time of attack giving the messenger enough time for them to reach 1st Fleet and for them to be ready to execute their plan and then 2nd Fleet executes their plan which is to go to Trevor's Star with a fleet of 200 "SD(P)"'s which is really 80 SD(P)'s and 120 SD's backed up by 12 CLAC's. The whole point is not to engage 3rd Fleet(RMN) and whatever the GSN sends, but to draw them out to their end of the system for long enough to buy 1st Fleet time to go through Home Fleet and whatever fixed defences are present.

Or go for all the marbles in the opening phases of the war, send 1st Fleet with 150 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's and half of all BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's against Home Fleet and 2nd Fleet with 180 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's, Half of BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's.

If the GSN Task Force is in Trevor's Star, you can wipe them out along with 3rd Fleet, that's 86 SD(P)'s right there along with 52 SD's, 8 CLAC's. Just that represents 43% of the RMN/GSN SD(P)'s, 33% of their SD's and 12% of their CLAC's. If the RHN was right about the quality and capability of their ships, 2-1 odds should be enough even if they were expecting 3.9-1 odds.

1st Fleet will execute their part of the plan and crush 23 SD(P)'s and~50 SD's in Home Fleet with probably 2,000-3,000 LAC's and assorted lighter combatants.

With Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and the GSN Task Force crushed the RMN/GSN would have 18 SD(P)'s, 25 SD's, 11 DN's and 10 CLAC's in Marsh.

Task Force Grendelsbane, would have 7 SD(P)'s 16 SD's and 4 CLAC's.

Grayson Home Fleet with ~56 SD(P)'s, 10 CLAC's and 30 SD's.

Then there might be a handful of SD's/DN's sprinkled throughout the occupied systems as well as a number of CLAC's.

The GSN would have about the only major allied force left, with 68 SD(P)'s and the RMN would have 13 SD(P)'s.

No matter how it started, as long as Haven is negotiating in good faith, doesn't start making insane demands, and gives back Trevor's Star to the SKM I can see a long lasting peace coming out of it. True the RMN would be crushed as a force, but they will rebuild with the ships in Grednelsbane and the Home system which Haven wont destroy, so they can be back to 120 SD(P)'s in service and the GSN can be back up to 115 SD(P)'s in service in 24 months as well. I don't see the MA going for a revenge war if the peace treaty is fair to both sides and San Martin is returned.

If on the hand the RoH wants to impose unreasonable terms on the MA then war will just erupt as soon as the MA has ships unless the RHN destroys or occupies both Manticore and Grayson.

So militarily, concentrating the forces to hit Manticore would have been arguably less risky than simultaneously hitting Grendelsbane, Marsh, and Trevor's Star. But if they didn't manage to knock out Manticore in one hit... (Possibly because they trashed home fleet but ran rather than getting pinned between Manticore's fixed defenses and 3rd + the GSN)

Say the RHN launches the offensive to knockout both Trevor's Star and Manticore HS, then approach with terms like say all the systems the SKM captured in the first war will be given a chance to vote on independence, staying in the SKM or going back to the Republic and both sides will have officials supervising the vote. Trevor's Star is returned to the SKM. Haven gets favoured status and reduced junction fees for 30 years.

The MA wont rebuild to fight the RoH over minor things, they will rebuild to regain Trevor's Star if the RoH decides to keep the system but anything less they will rebuild a force to protect their territory.

Sigs wrote:

Jonathan_S wrote:If the attack worked. But if they miscalculated or their new MDMs and SD(P)s weren't up to taking on the Manticore system's defenses then they've poisoned their diplomatic good name, in addition to their military losses, and now they're in an unpleasant position both militarily and diplomatically.

But yes, I'd forgotten that over half of Manticore's active SD(P)s were concentrated at Trevor's Star. So even with whatever fixed defenses it had Manticore was probably at most no tougher a target than 3rd fleet was at Trevor's Star.

Though you do have to worry about 3rd fleet popping through the Junction behind you and getting pinned inside the hyper limit, or in the RZ, between 3rd and Home Fleets. Which in the event might be even worse since most of the GSN's wallers would presumably follow 3rd fleet and become part of that mousetrapping relief force. Unless, that is, you can throw enough additional forces at Trevor's Star to ensure that you prevent 3rd from using the Terminus.

The RHN has ~330 SD(P)'s at the start of the war counting the 10 they lost at Marsh. They also have 200 SD's in active service, at the beginning of the war I don't know if the RMN can distinguish between which one is an SD(P) and which one is an SD just through sensors.

So sending a force of 100 SD(P)'s which are really just 50 SD(P)'s and the rest are SD's with 12 CLAC's for support. First Fleet with their 140 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's and 36 CLAC's is in a in open space a few hours time away from Manticore waiting, they send a DB with an official cover as a news crew, government DB or something like that from an unoccupied system near Manticore, through Manticore through the Junction to a system where a DB for 2nd Fleet is waiting which relays the news to 2nd Fleet hidden away in open space near Trevor's Star. Then 2nd Fleet sends confirmation and a time of attack giving the messenger enough time for them to reach 1st Fleet and for them to be ready to execute their plan and then 2nd Fleet executes their plan which is to go to Trevor's Star with a fleet of 200 "SD(P)"'s which is really 80 SD(P)'s and 120 SD's backed up by 12 CLAC's. The whole point is not to engage 3rd Fleet(RMN) and whatever the GSN sends, but to draw them out to their end of the system for long enough to buy 1st Fleet time to go through Home Fleet and whatever fixed defences are present.

Or go for all the marbles in the opening phases of the war, send 1st Fleet with 150 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's and half of all BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's against Home Fleet and 2nd Fleet with 180 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's, Half of BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's.

If the GSN Task Force is in Trevor's Star, you can wipe them out along with 3rd Fleet, that's 86 SD(P)'s right there along with 52 SD's, 8 CLAC's. Just that represents 43% of the RMN/GSN SD(P)'s, 33% of their SD's and 12% of their CLAC's. If the RHN was right about the quality and capability of their ships, 2-1 odds should be enough even if they were expecting 3.9-1 odds.

1st Fleet will execute their part of the plan and crush 23 SD(P)'s and~50 SD's in Home Fleet with probably 2,000-3,000 LAC's and assorted lighter combatants.

With Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and the GSN Task Force crushed the RMN/GSN would have 18 SD(P)'s, 25 SD's, 11 DN's and 10 CLAC's in Marsh.

Task Force Grendelsbane, would have 7 SD(P)'s 16 SD's and 4 CLAC's.

Grayson Home Fleet with ~56 SD(P)'s, 10 CLAC's and 30 SD's.

Then there might be a handful of SD's/DN's sprinkled throughout the occupied systems as well as a number of CLAC's.

The GSN would have about the only major allied force left, with 68 SD(P)'s and the RMN would have 13 SD(P)'s.

No matter how it started, as long as Haven is negotiating in good faith, doesn't start making insane demands, and gives back Trevor's Star to the SKM I can see a long lasting peace coming out of it. True the RMN would be crushed as a force, but they will rebuild with the ships in Grednelsbane and the Home system which Haven wont destroy, so they can be back to 120 SD(P)'s in service and the GSN can be back up to 115 SD(P)'s in service in 24 months as well. I don't see the MA going for a revenge war if the peace treaty is fair to both sides and San Martin is returned.

If on the hand the RoH wants to impose unreasonable terms on the MA then war will just erupt as soon as the MA has ships unless the RHN destroys or occupies both Manticore and Grayson.

So militarily, concentrating the forces to hit Manticore would have been arguably less risky than simultaneously hitting Grendelsbane, Marsh, and Trevor's Star. But if they didn't manage to knock out Manticore in one hit... (Possibly because they trashed home fleet but ran rather than getting pinned between Manticore's fixed defenses and 3rd + the GSN)

Say the RHN launches the offensive to knockout both Trevor's Star and Manticore HS, then approach with terms like say all the systems the SKM captured in the first war will be given a chance to vote on independence, staying in the SKM or going back to the Republic and both sides will have officials supervising the vote. Trevor's Star is returned to the SKM. Haven gets favoured status and reduced junction fees for 30 years.

The MA wont rebuild to fight the RoH over minor things, they will rebuild to regain Trevor's Star if the RoH decides to keep the system but anything less they will rebuild a force to protect their territory.

Don't forget that the GSN had a shit load of BC(P)s.

Can you imagine the tactical as well as strategic surprise when 40+ BC(P)s with the firepower of two dozen+ SD(P)s crash your party when you attack​ Grayson?

Sigs wrote:
So sending a force of 100 SD(P)'s which are really just 50 SD(P)'s and the rest are SD's with 12 CLAC's for support. First Fleet with their 140 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's and 36 CLAC's is in a in open space a few hours time away from Manticore waiting, they send a DB with an official cover as a news crew, government DB or something like that from an unoccupied system near Manticore, through Manticore through the Junction to a system where a DB for 2nd Fleet is waiting which relays the news to 2nd Fleet hidden away in open space near Trevor's Star. Then 2nd Fleet sends confirmation and a time of attack giving the messenger enough time for them to reach 1st Fleet and for them to be ready to execute their plan and then 2nd Fleet executes their plan which is to go to Trevor's Star with a fleet of 200 "SD(P)"'s which is really 80 SD(P)'s and 120 SD's backed up by 12 CLAC's. The whole point is not to engage 3rd Fleet(RMN) and whatever the GSN sends, but to draw them out to their end of the system for long enough to buy 1st Fleet time to go through Home Fleet and whatever fixed defences are present.

Or go for all the marbles in the opening phases of the war, send 1st Fleet with 150 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's and half of all BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's against Home Fleet and 2nd Fleet with 180 SD(P)'s, 100 SD's, 24 CLAC's, Half of BC's, CA's, CL's and DD's.

If the GSN Task Force is in Trevor's Star, you can wipe them out along with 3rd Fleet, that's 86 SD(P)'s right there along with 52 SD's, 8 CLAC's. Just that represents 43% of the RMN/GSN SD(P)'s, 33% of their SD's and 12% of their CLAC's. If the RHN was right about the quality and capability of their ships, 2-1 odds should be enough even if they were expecting 3.9-1 odds.

1st Fleet will execute their part of the plan and crush 23 SD(P)'s and~50 SD's in Home Fleet with probably 2,000-3,000 LAC's and assorted lighter combatants.

With Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and the GSN Task Force crushed the RMN/GSN would have 18 SD(P)'s, 25 SD's, 11 DN's and 10 CLAC's in Marsh.

Task Force Grendelsbane, would have 7 SD(P)'s 16 SD's and 4 CLAC's.

Grayson Home Fleet with ~56 SD(P)'s, 10 CLAC's and 30 SD's.

Then there might be a handful of SD's/DN's sprinkled throughout the occupied systems as well as a number of CLAC's.

The GSN would have about the only major allied force left, with 68 SD(P)'s and the RMN would have 13 SD(P)'s.

No matter how it started, as long as Haven is negotiating in good faith, doesn't start making insane demands, and gives back Trevor's Star to the SKM I can see a long lasting peace coming out of it. True the RMN would be crushed as a force, but they will rebuild with the ships in Grednelsbane and the Home system which Haven wont destroy, so they can be back to 120 SD(P)'s in service and the GSN can be back up to 115 SD(P)'s in service in 24 months as well. I don't see the MA going for a revenge war if the peace treaty is fair to both sides and San Martin is returned.

If on the hand the RoH wants to impose unreasonable terms on the MA then war will just erupt as soon as the MA has ships unless the RHN destroys or occupies both Manticore and Grayson.

Wall of text, with this ultra elaborate series of moves that depends on everything working like clockwork. Like say a customs team being a bit overly suspicious.

No, just no.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I'll repeat: there's no secondary front and the "primary" front is the Republic Core Systems. Trying to be strong everywhere means you're weak everywhere. The RHN had to defend the core systems, not the relatively unimportant ones that happen to be gelactographically close to Grayson, Manticore or Trevor's Star. Just look at the list of targets for Cutworm I, II and II.

The primary front is to keep pressure on the alliance so they don't end up freeing ships from Grayson, Manticore and Trevor's Star because the RHN ends up focusing exclusively on defence. The MA wont expose Manticore, Grayson or Trevor's Star but the RHN has to exert pressure on them by having major fleets near Manticore/Grayson and Trevor's Star. Just because they wont fully expose those systems doesn't mean they wont strip ships from them for an operation or two.

Main front and secondary front are NOT a primarily defensive entities, they primary goal is to tie down the MA's limited ships simply by their close proximity to the MA's main systems. The fleets would be a fleet in being, they cant individually attack Manticore or Grayson but neither can the MA clear them out without exposing one or more of their critical systems.

The main and secondary front are not there to act as a trip wire for the RHN where the MA has to fight through them to get to the rest of the republic, they acted as a threat to make sure that the MA cannot deploy more SD(P)'s from those critical systems into 8th Fleet for attacks on the republic's core. There had to be a reason why the MA didn't skim a few SD(P)'s from all of the defensive fleets to reinforce 8th Fleet, and that was likely because there was a large and very menacing RHN fleet nearby. That's also how the RoH shows restraint, they put 150 SD(P)'s in 3 Fleets near the MA's core systems knowing that the MA cant organize a fleet to overwhelm 1 let alone all three of those systems and they cant afford to weaken any of their defences, so instead of 8th Fleet being reinforced up to say 32 SD(P)'s at the beginning of the war, they had less than 5 SD(P)'s. Imagine what would have happened if the instead of having ~4 SD(P)'s in mid 1920 for Cutworm I and II, 8th Fleet had 32 SD(P)'s? They could have hit 8 Systems with 4 SD(P)'s each. Cutworm I(8 systems) and II(4 systems) follow criteria of hitting secondary systems, and Cutworm III concentrates on 1 target in a core system. With the larger 8th Fleet, the ambush fleets have to be proportionally larger as well which means less protections for major yards outside of Haven and Bolthole or fewer systems covered.

The ambush fleets are the core systems' protection.

How so? Correct me if I'm wrong, but an ambush fleet covers a specific secondary system, waits in the vicinity of that specific system for the right conditions to execute the ambush, how does it protect a core system if it is a few days to a week away from getting to that system? By the time the system commander sends a request for help, that request gets to the ambush fleet, and that fleet gets to the system in question 8th Fleet would have trashed the systems infrastructure, destroyed the picket and would have been long gone by the time anyone showed up.

That's like saying that on December 7th 1941, the US Atlantic Fleet and their 4 CV's, 8 BB's, 5 CA's and 8 CL's were the protection of Pearl Harbour, technically true but by the time they get to Pearl Harbour from their various patrols in the Atlantic the IJN would be long gone.

On the other hand, it has only one site for significant industrial war-fighting production and that's around the Uriel gas giant (where the Blackbird base is located). The gas giant is outside the star's hyperlimit but has a hyperlimit of its own that is in similar to the missile's range (50-60 million km). And unlike RMN Home Fleet, the GSN Home Fleet protecting Blackbird is likely 100% SD(P) and many of which are likely Harrington II. So any attack on Blackbird is likely to find a very tough, concentrated wall in exactly the best position it can be to defend the yards, which the RHN would need to go through before it could attack the yards. 3:1 superiority wouldn't suffice: they'd have to send all 335 SD(P)s in.

Or they can go to the inner system which is now apparently undefended and force Grayson to surrender.

The GSN Home Fleet and their ~50-60 SD(P)'s have to protect the industry AND the inner system, this means they have to split in two. Deploying everything to protect one, exposes the other. In your scenario deploying all of Home Fleet to cover Blackbird exposes the inner system and farms that the Protectorate still depends on, so it would be race against time as to who gets to Grayson first, and if the RHN gets there first the GSN is screwed since I doubt they will fire salvos at the RHN if Grayson is backdrop for fear of committing an EE violation against their own people.

More Likely scenario is that the GSN Home Fleet is larger than Manticore's Home Fleet because they have to protect two very important objectives, in Manticore they could temporarily abandon Gryphon without losing all of their industrial capabilities. So the Junction is covered by the forts and Manticore A is covered by Home Fleet with Gryphon getting a lighter task force and fixed defences.

And 4) an offensive against Basilisk, which puts a wrinkle in the Manticore-Andermani-Silesia traingle and is sovereign territory of Manticore. It's a much smaller effort for large symbolic gain.

Which is just that, Symbolic Gain. You risk SD(P)'s against forts at the Terminal for a symbolic victory.

Theisman was quite clear that it would take a long time to activate Beatrice if they needed it, unless they started preparing before Lovat. That extra month or two might mean a second attack by Eighth Fleet, at a level that wouldn't be acceptable (though we know that wouldn't have happened).

So they exposed their nation, tied down 40+% of their SD(P)'s on a contingency they had no intention of launching and all of that was done at the time they needed a victory against 8th Fleet to execute Camille. At the very time they needed to increase the odds of catching 8th Fleet they took away a large portion of the SD(P)'s for a contingency.

Beatrice wouldn't take that long if it was an emergency, because if it was an emergency I wouldn't bother training the fleet up, I would gather every ship between Haven and Manticore that I can get go with the time I have till I get to Manticore.

With the Ambush Fleets of 48 SD(P)'s and 12 CLAC's per fleet and potentially there being 5-6 such fleets the RHN can quickly gather all those formed fleets as well as Capital Fleet.

Why would the systems be on lockdown? All I'm saying is that the ambush fleets keep translating up and down and never in full force. How does that affect civilian traffic?

Wait, so your theory is to basicly show the MA where your ambush fleets are by sending them in and out of the system a few at a time? I'm sure no one will wonder why the system received 50 SD(P)'s as reinforcement over the last month or two and lost 50 SD(P)'s in reinforcement over the last months or two. The whole point of the RHN's ambush fleets were so that NO ONE in the MA knew they were at the target systems until its too late. Missing 300 SD(P)'s in 6 ambush fleets is significantly better than giving the MA a list of target systems to avoid because they obviously have SD(P)'s near by.

Also, those SDs are the system defence. They are not just for show, they are available to intercept any attacking thrust. Look at the Battle of Solon: Giscard split his forces in 4 task forces and each was coming at Eighth Fleet from different directions, only one of which was from inside the hyperlimit. That means 75% of the forces were waiting outside the inner system.

If the scouts had caught wind of even 6 SD(P)'s in system along with CLAC's I doubt 8th Fleet would have visited Solon. The Whole point of an ambush is for the enemy to walk in without expecting you there, because if they know you have an ambush fleet in the system they will either avoid it or find a way to ambush the ambush fleet like they did in Lovat. They could have done that without Apollo if they were willing to take some risks.

And do remember that this is the most recent battle prior to the Theisman-Pritchart meeting we're talking about. This was an ambush strategy that did work.

As long as there were enough Ambush fleets to increase the chance of catching 8th Fleet in one, and the enemy(MA) didn't know where they are. If the RHN had 5 Ambush Fleets and their 240 SD(P)'s and 60 CLAC's and then they took aside 240 SD(P)'s and 16 CLAC's for a contingency operation they didn't plan on executing that leaves 40 SD(P)'s fully operational for defence of the republic and 100 SD(P)'s working up. Don't know about you but I doubt the MA will miss that 92%+ of the RHN's SD(P) have suddenly gone missing and Capital Fleet can be knocked off by 40 Alliance SD(P)'s. So either the ambush fleets were reduced in number to a point where the RHN would have been exceptionally lucky to catch 8th Fleet and 8th Fleet would have had to be exceptionally unlucky to step inside a trap or they stripped every important objective and set themselves up for failure.

These numbers support the 620 total. The meeting we're talking about happened probably in April 1921, so the 100 ships working up have just been added to the 500 from your count.

The meeting happened in April 1921, the plan for Beatrice was probably for at least June-Sept 1921, so he was talking about ships they would have AT THE TIME of the planned attack not at the time of the conversation. I would hope that the CNO knows exactly when he would get ships, how long it takes to work them up and when he expects them to be operational. If he doesn't he is a shitty CNO.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Doesn't matter at that point. The fact that 239 of 240 SD(P)s that arrived have turned away from battle and the CO of the attacking fleet begins parley is sufficient motivation to continuing it. As long as Tourville is in a meeting room or in a pinnace light-minutes away from his forces, he's not commanding those forces.

The moment Honor sits down with Lester, she'll know he's telling the truth. And both the Queen and White Haven know of her ability -- not to mention Nimitz, Samantha and Ariel -- so they'll trust her and them when they report Lester's sincerity to negotiate and that the RHN had nothing to do with the Yawata Strike.

Just because he doesn't know, doesn't mean that the RoH didn't launch them. Kind of like the argument that just because Cachat didn't know didn't mean someone else in the republic didn't execute the attack without his knowledge. Having the RHN fleet sitting around just gives a chance for the pissed off Manticorans and pissed off Graysons to call for reinforcements from the IAN Home Fleet, and Grayson Home Fleet as well as gather 3rd and 8th Fleet. And if things don't go as planned, 2nd Fleet gets to retreat without their commander and/or gets destroyed.

Before their return with Simões and the intel on the Alignment, yes. But after their departure to Mesa, which happened after they met with Honor aboard HMS Imperator at Trevor's Star, telling her that Haven wasn't responsible for the attempted assassination of Queen Berry and that therefore a third party was interfering with the war.

how well did that workout for them?