Alternate history: PRH-Solarian War

Sigs wrote:Only an idiot would worry more about problems a year or 2 or 5 down the road when he is facing defeat in short term. There are a lot of ways to motivate the population, reforms, promises or whatever is necessary to accomplish the mission(s), victory over Manticore and the survival of their hierarchy.

What if they think defeat is a lesser evil than giving people those reforms? Worst case scenario for them, they surrender before the end and negotiate peace. They'd still be in power and that's all that counts.

Jonathan_S wrote:You'd think - but despite some internal calls for them to do so the Confederate States of America never enlisted the 38% of their population that was enslaved; despite lacking the necessary population to match armies of the size the Union could field (given it's larger population). As far as I can find there were no black soldiers in the CSA (though there were black laborers and servants working within their Army)

Arming the slaves wasn't really a problem for CSA 5 years down the road, it was a problem for the CSA the day they armed them, if they armed the slaves they would be giving weapons to the people who had everything to win by fighting back. So they would be compounding their problems.

IF you were pinned by your hand and to cut it to live some people might actually do it to survive, maybe even a lot of people will do it to survive. Having your head pinned down is a different story, cutting your hand to survive is one thing, cutting your head just speeds up what you are trying to avoid.

So clearly they weren't willing to do whatever might have been necessary to accomplish the mission;

That wouldn't have accomplished anything more than create more problems immediately. There are some things that are obviously creating problems in the here and now which makes the job of the government that much harder.

and were willing to ride the war down in flames rather than do that crazy thing.

You are and American officer in command of a prison in Afghanistan that is under attack by the Taliban who are trying to free captured Taliban. You are greatly outnumbered and the QRF is 90min away. Arming the Taliban Prisoners accomplishes nothing but you and your troops dying a lot quicker.

Same for the CSA, arming any of the 3million slaves would have lost them the war quicker.

Again let me reiterate, there are crazy things to do that might create a problem AFTER the war if you win but give you a chance to win the war, and then there are stupid things to do that guarantee that you will lose the war and quicker with potentially more casualties.

There is a difference between promising changes, and enacting some forms of changes that might cause civil disturbances after the war to promote more productivity now, and say picking up Jesus Ramirez from Hell along with a bunch of long term military prisoners and putting them on PN ships to fight the MA. That's not a crazy idea that might help you win the war, that's a stupid idea that will help you lose 2 ships.

Keeping the black population suppressed was, demonstrably, more important to them than winning their separation from the United State.

Keeping the black population unarmed kept the fight going longer, arming the black population would have created another front for the CSA to fight.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
What if they think defeat is a lesser evil than giving people those reforms? Worst case scenario for them, they surrender before the end and negotiate peace. They'd still be in power and that's all that counts.

They have to know that the SKM wont stand for a surrender by the People's Republic with the current form of government remaining. Making promises and creating the illusion of change gives the Republic a chance to improve their productivity and the government can walk those promises back at a later date.

They can promise changes, they can bribe them, coerce them, or just lie to them. They wont be the first government that promised something to it's people and backed down after the dust settles.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:What if they think defeat is a lesser evil than giving people those reforms? Worst case scenario for them, they surrender before the end and negotiate peace. They'd still be in power and that's all that counts.

Sigs wrote:They have to know that the SKM wont stand for a surrender by the People's Republic with the current form of government remaining. Making promises and creating the illusion of change gives the Republic a chance to improve their productivity and the government can walk those promises back at a later date.

They can promise changes, they can bribe them, coerce them, or just lie to them. They wont be the first government that promised something to it's people and backed down after the dust settles.

However, the SKM did accept an armistice with the Peoples' Republic under St. Just; which is normally an avenue to a peace treaty. The re-emergence of the Republic of Haven was not really the result of anything done by Manticore.

So there is no reason to suppose that the Legislaturists would have fared worse.

tlb wrote:However, the SKM did accept an armistice with the Peoples' Republic under St. Just; which is normally an avenue to a peace treaty. The re-emergence of the Republic of Haven was not really the result of anything done by Manticore.

So there is no reason to suppose that the Legislaturists would have fared worse.

They accepted the armistice simply because it met the goals of the new government, High Ridge couldn't care less about Haven and its government, nor could he care less about the threat they could have posed 5,10,20 or 50 years down the road, he cared about the here and now and how he can benefit from the here and now to stay in power and enrich himself and his friends. If Allen Summervale was PM the war would have been fought until it's conclusion in Haven with surrender of the People's Republic and the dissolution of the republic's captured systems.

They agreed to armistice but I would think that Queen Elizabeth had a say in the matter when it came time for an official peace treaty and I doubt she would have agreed to anything that would have repeated the war a decade or two down the line.

Sigs wrote:

tlb wrote:However, the SKM did accept an armistice with the Peoples' Republic under St. Just; which is normally an avenue to a peace treaty. The re-emergence of the Republic of Haven was not really the result of anything done by Manticore.

So there is no reason to suppose that the Legislaturists would have fared worse.

They accepted the armistice simply because it met the goals of the new government, High Ridge couldn't care less about Haven and its government, nor could he care less about the threat they could have posed 5,10,20 or 50 years down the road, he cared about the here and now and how he can benefit from the here and now to stay in power and enrich himself and his friends. If Allen Summervale was PM the war would have been fought until it's conclusion in Haven with surrender of the People's Republic and the dissolution of the republic's captured systems.

High Ridge was corrupt and incompetent, but not THAT reckless. He only accepted the armistice because he thought that Haven would not pose a threat in the near future. He also continued the R&D projects that would keep giving Manticore the tech edge, although nowhere near the pace they were during the war. Keyhole and the Nike class came about during his administration, after all.

So I would agree on one hand that the SKM leadership would not agree to a peace treaty that left them vulnerable to a second attack 10 or 20 years later.

On the other hand, the devil is on the details. As it happened to High Ridge, an SKM government could become convinced that the PRH threat was over for the next half century, even if the Legislaturalists remained in power. So what if two thirds of the PRH gained independence, as long as they remained in power? The war effort might have created an economic boom sufficient for Haven to sustain itself for some time.

And finally, it doesn't matter if the SKM leadership would have accepted a peace treaty. It only matters if the Legislaturalists had thought they would. They had much better intelligence on Manticore than the Sollies and we know from RFC that most of it was political intelligence, but even then they may have got the signals wrong. After all, three of the five major parties in the Kingdom were against the war. They may have failed to account for the Queen's influence.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
High Ridge was corrupt and incompetent, but not THAT reckless. He only accepted the armistice because he thought that Haven would not pose a threat in the near future. He also continued the R&D projects that would keep giving Manticore the tech edge, although nowhere near the pace they were during the war. Keyhole and the Nike class came about during his administration, after all.

He took over a nation that was on the verge of victory, signed an armistice so he can line his pockets and those of his friends and at the same time buy votes for his "allies".

Then he put incompetent people in charge of the navy and ignored or downright pushed allies away and ignored their warnings. Anyone with half a brain would have known that the new government in Haven would move haven and earth to get technological parity, so while the Navy was continuing some research under his government they had stopped production of capital ships and had stopped production/design of escorts except for those where senior officers can slip a design in under the radar. He and his naval leadership should have known that Haven will get parity and will if necessary build a shipyard from scratch or do the Grayson style dispersed yards in a major shipyard system and hide them, and they can hide them very well because RMN's ONI isn't bothering to look and Highridge isn't listening to Grayson so they don't have to work all that hard at hiding the ships even without Bolthole.

So I would agree on one hand that the SKM leadership would not agree to a peace treaty that left them vulnerable to a second attack 10 or 20 years later.

Sure they would, if they are led by idiots they would do anything. I mean in 10 years of war the PN kept catching up time and again so why did he suddenly think they will just give up especially when he is stringing them along?

On the other hand, the devil is on the details. As it happened to High Ridge, an SKM government could become convinced that the PRH threat was over for the next half century, even if the Legislaturalists remained in power. So what if two thirds of the PRH gained independence, as long as they remained in power? The war effort might have created an economic boom sufficient for Haven to sustain itself for some time.

The problem is that the Queen would not agree to leave the Legislaturalists in power specifically because this would bring about the same problems. If the Legislaturalists are incapable of changing or making adjustments during wartime what makes you think they will make any major adjustments in peacetime? If the SKM agreed to peace and left the Legislaturalists they will fight the war in 20 years because the same pressures that forced them to go to war in 1905 will be there in 1925 and 1935.

And finally, it doesn't matter if the SKM leadership would have accepted a peace treaty. It only matters if the Legislaturalists had thought they would. They had much better intelligence on Manticore than the Sollies and we know from RFC that most of it was political intelligence, but even then they may have got the signals wrong. After all, three of the five major parties in the Kingdom were against the war. They may have failed to account for the Queen's influence.

So they have a choice, make some changes that they will have to undo over the next few dacades and potentially win the war with those changes OR not make any changes and lose the war.

Just because the committee did it one way doesn't mean the Legislaturalists had to do it the exact same way, they could have gone about it a very different way. Look at WW2, production was approached differently by different nations with different ideologies. The Americans did it one way, the British a different, the Soviets found a third way, the Germans found a another way and the Italians didn't bother figuring it out.

The Legislaturalists would have figured it out in a different way than the committee, it might not have been enough to offset the tech advantage but they would have tried.

Sigs wrote:He took over a nation that was on the verge of victory, signed an armistice so he can line his pockets and those of his friends and at the same time buy votes for his "allies".

Then he put incompetent people in charge of the navy and ignored or downright pushed allies away and ignored their warnings. Anyone with half a brain would have known that the new government in Haven would move haven and earth to get technological parity, so while the Navy was continuing some research under his government they had stopped production of capital ships and had stopped production/design of escorts except for those where senior officers can slip a design in under the radar. He and his naval leadership should have known that Haven will get parity and will if necessary build a shipyard from scratch or do the Grayson style dispersed yards in a major shipyard system and hide them, and they can hide them very well because RMN's ONI isn't bothering to look and Highridge isn't listening to Grayson so they don't have to work all that hard at hiding the ships even without Bolthole.

I'm not disagreeing with any of the facts that you listed. Only my interpretation is different: High Ridge, Janacek and Second Lord Adm. Jurgensen would not have allowed Haven to catch up technologically, if they had known it was happening. They thought that they'd get the intel sufficiently early to prepare for a resumption of hostilities. They were, after all, monitoring all known shipyards in Havenite space and for the last 4 years they had built nothing but exactly the same DuQuesne-class SDs that the PRN fielded before the beginning of the first war.

I'm not saying that they would have believed the information when they'd receive it. We did see Jurgensen shelving "uncomfortable" reports that didn't support the party line, after all. But that's not the point. The point is that they told themselves they knew what was happening and they had time, so they had little to lose and a lot to gain by accepting armistice and letting the negotiations drag.

So I would agree on one hand that the SKM leadership would not agree to a peace treaty that left them vulnerable to a second attack 10 or 20 years later.

Sure they would, if they are led by idiots they would do anything. I mean in 10 years of war the PN kept catching up time and again so why did he suddenly think they will just give up especially when he is stringing them along?

Again, what matters is what they believe. If they believe they aren't under threat for 10 or 20 years, they'll accept the armistice.

The problem is that the Queen would not agree to leave the Legislaturalists in power specifically because this would bring about the same problems.

And she would do something about it how, exactly? The same way that she didn't allow Oscar Saint-Just to remain in power?

If the Legislaturalists are incapable of changing or making adjustments during wartime what makes you think they will make any major adjustments in peacetime? If the SKM agreed to peace and left the Legislaturalists they will fight the war in 20 years because the same pressures that forced them to go to war in 1905 will be there in 1925 and 1935.

I'm not claiming the Legislaturalists would change their nature.

What I'm claiming is that the end of the first war would leave the PRH in such a state that the SKM believed (erroneously or not) the PRH wasn't a threat for another generation. It's quite easy to believe that if the RMN has proven technological superiority and 75% of the PRH has gained independence. The SKM government may believe they've turned back the clock in the PRH to the 1860s-70s.

And never underestimate the ability of governments to kick the can of problems down the road for the next government.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
And she would do something about it how, exactly? The same way that she didn't allow Oscar Saint-Just to remain in power?

She chose to bide her time and not add another crisis to the SKM after the assassination of the PM and the near assassination of the Queen. She could have done something but it would have been messy and she believed they would implode all on their own in due time.

I'm not claiming the Legislaturalists would change their nature.

What I'm claiming is that the end of the first war would leave the PRH in such a state that the SKM believed (erroneously or not) the PRH wasn't a threat for another generation. It's quite easy to believe that if the RMN has proven technological superiority and 75% of the PRH has gained independence. The SKM government may believe they've turned back the clock in the PRH to the 1860s-70s.

And never underestimate the ability of governments to kick the can of problems down the road for the next government.

The PM didn't care because it didn't suit him, he ignored the allies with the best information, he smeared the opposition to silence them and his First Lord of Admiralty was an arrogant idiot who placed a yes man to man the office that would have been the one to warn the PM about the build up, then he cut the budget of that office and then ignored the intelligence his provided by his allies. Whatever delusions he told himself doesn't matter because if he truly cared about long term(past the next election) he would have had a competent Second Space Lord and that Space Lord would have had his budget increased, not decreased.