tlb wrote:We agree on all of this, so why are you repeating it? What point are you trying to make? Are you arguing that the forward deployment meant the conditions for Camille were less likely to occur?
Sigs wrote:No, I am arguing that the following statement is false:
kzt wrote:Haven was GOING TO LOSE if they failed to defeat Manticore in the next few months.
Sigs wrote:When they made plans and started deploying their forces for Beatrice, they did not know they were losing the war, hell the MA didn't know they were winning the war, Apollo could have been a big'ol flop for all they knew.
My argument is that BEFORE Lovat the operation was too dangerous if the RHN had only 620 SD(P)'s.
Most people would agree that Beatrice was too dangerous to execute before Lovat, because Haven still had the chance to win by attrition. I believe I can exclude KZT from this, because his argument has been that Haven's best chance to win would have been to execute something like Beatrice as the opening stroke of the war.
However we get there, everyone probably agrees that after Lovat, Haven's only chance to win was something like Beatrice; because the change in technology meant that attrition was no longer on Haven's side. That is the time frame of KZT's statement and at that point you agree with it.
So what is your real disagreement with most people on the forum? It appears that you object to Haven making a contingency plan (and RFC has made it clear that Haven would not have executed it unless/until forced by the results of Apollo at Lovat). I contend that any military leader should have contingent emergency plans, because if disaster strikes there is seldom time to do the planning necessary. So planning Beatrice, while the war seems to favoring your side, is not an act of madness; but an act of caution, not because they knew specifically about Apollo, but because they knew that Manticore had made advances before.