How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

kzt wrote:And yes, I have to agree that demonstrating Apollo was just as stupid as the OB attacks. Both prematurely revealed something way before they were able to handle the predicable response.

Eh, they expected to be able to handle the predictable response before Haven could possibly launch it. And if they hadn't already done the planning and started the redeployments for Beatrice when Theisman and Pritchart decided what to do in response to Lovat, that would have been correct.

This is not really a complex plan. You use capital fleet for the main force, assign another single command to force b. Then you do rehearsals underway.

kzt wrote:And yes, I have to agree that demonstrating Apollo was just as stupid as the OB attacks. Both prematurely revealed something way before they were able to handle the predicable response.

And on that note, going back to the original topic: how does OB figure in the MAlign plans? They reveal a technology and, once the cat is out of the bag, a series of counters become possible. Did it do more harm than good?

kzt wrote:And yes, I have to agree that demonstrating Apollo was just as stupid as the OB attacks. Both prematurely revealed something way before they were able to handle the predicable response.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And on that note, going back to the original topic: how does OB figure in the MAlign plans? They reveal a technology and, once the cat is out of the bag, a series of counters become possible. Did it do more harm than good?

While I think that Lovat was a mistake, because it occurred before the system defense pods were ready; I am not sure that OB was a mistake, even though it did not have the planned outcome. The miscalculation was that Haven could use the opportunity to win. Its biggest problem is that it offered Haven an avenue to peace as a partner of Manticore, rather than as a debtor. It is not as though the GA has a response except to fire up the bubble sidewalls on any suspicion of another incursion.

The Detweiler Plan went thoroughly off script when Theisman killed St Just and restored the Republic. The other failure of the plan was that the Solarian Navy was too incompetent to put up a good fight after the technological advances in the war. That should have been obvious after Byng and Crandall, but became blindingly obvious after the fact of OB was used to send the SLN fleet to Manticore.

Now what would it be like if they had managed to time OB to occur before Beatrice?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:And on that note, going back to the original topic: how does OB figure in the MAlign plans? They reveal a technology and, once the cat is out of the bag, a series of counters become possible. Did it do more harm than good?

The leadership is so invested in their plan and so wrapped in their twisted world it's hard to tell how this was supposed to work. It's like:
1) We steal underwear
2) umm...
3) Profit!

Or, to quote a comment one drill sgt once made to me, "Have you noticed it's awful dark and smelly? Maybe you should pull your head out of your ass!"

tlb wrote:Now what would it be like if they had managed to time OB to occur before Beatrice?

Would Theisman know about it before sending the execute orders?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

tlb wrote:Now what would it be like if they had managed to time OB to occur before Beatrice?

Would Theisman know about it before sending the execute orders?

Depends.
If OB happens after Honor departs to raid Lovat, and Theisman still orders Beatrice on the historic timeline then no. With Beatrice arriving just 2 months after Lovat there isn't time for any information to travel from Manticore to Haven before the execute order for Beatrice had to have been ordered. (It's over a month travel time for the Beatrice forces to simply reach Manticore); so the orders to initiate had to have gone out within a week or two of Lovat)

On the other hand if OB had happened before Honor left and had preempted or delayed the raid then it's possible that Theisman would get that news before (or instead of) Lovat.

OTOH given Haven's war aims receiving news of Oyster Bay probably makes it less likely that he'd suggest launching Beatrice - even if Apollo's capabilities were revealed.
Remember, the main thing he wanted from Beatrice was to destroy all the yards at Manticore, and the Python Lump of ships they were working on, before they Alliance could rally enough forces to drive his fleet from the system. But OB would now have already done that for him. Manticore almost has to come back to the table soon since they now lack the ability to add to their fleet while Haven continues building SD(P)s at a very rapid pace. (Sure, the secondary goal of Beatrice was to gut at least Home and 3rd fleet - but even with Chin's mousetrap maneuver Haven expected to lose a lot of their ships in exchange. So I don't see the fact that OB would have left those RMN formation intact changes things much, since the Haven ships are also intact. The writing is still on the wall due to Haven now having the ability to totally out build Manticore)

Jonathan_S wrote:Remember, the main thing he wanted from Beatrice was to destroy all the yards at Manticore, and the Python lump of ships they were working one, before they Alliance could rally enough forces to drive his fleet from the system. But OB would now have already done that for him. Manticore almost has to come back to the table soon since they now lack the ability to add to their fleet while Haven continues building SD(P)s at a very rapid pace. (Sure, the secondary goal of Beatrice was to gut at least Home and 3rd fleet - but even with Chin's mousetrap maneuver Haven expected to lose a lot of their ships in exchange. So I don't see the fact that OB would have left those RMN formation intact changes things much, since the Haven ships are also intact. The writing is still on the wall due to Haven now having the ability to totally out build Manticore)

Very good point. If OB had achieved what Beatrice was supposed to achieve, the RoH would likely have proceeded with peace terms. Differently, though: instead of "we won, now you accept these terms," it would be "we had nothing to do with this, but since we're nice guys, we'll negotiate and even protect you against whomever it was that did it. You can't fight us and them."

So what happens if Tourville arrives in the MBS and finds Eighth Fleets and a portion of Third Fleet replacing Home Fleet? They're armed with Apollo, but would Honor fight? Would they know it wasn't Haven?

Tourville certainly would know it wasn't them. If Honor can be in the same room as him, she could know for sure. Under what circumstances would they agree to parley?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:So what happens if Tourville arrives in the MBS and finds Eighth Fleets and a portion of Third Fleet replacing Home Fleet? They're armed with Apollo, but would Honor fight? Would they know it wasn't Haven?

Tourville certainly would know it wasn't them. If Honor can be in the same room as him, she could know for sure. Under what circumstances would they agree to parley?

It depends on how long it takes to figure out what is going on.

I would assume the RHN didn't jump in blind into the system, the RMN just didn't notice it. So if that is the case their little spy would tell them what was going on.

I'd assume Tourville is authorized to negotiate, so that is what he'd do. Probably not with his whole fleet hanging out, but I don't know.

If they really did jump in blind then I don't know how long it will take to figure out what is going on. Probably 20-30 minutes at least, but they would know fairly fast that 'something' is definitely not as it should be.

kzt wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:So what happens if Tourville arrives in the MBS and finds Eighth Fleets and a portion of Third Fleet replacing Home Fleet? They're armed with Apollo, but would Honor fight? Would they know it wasn't Haven?

I realised as I was replying now that the above wouldn't occur. Oyster Bay did not attack the ships and couldn't have even if they wanted to. Home Fleet was positioned between Manticore and Sphinx, so they'd have needed a fourth front to attack it, besides the three planets.

So Home Fleet remains, with Fleet Admiral Sebastian D'Orville in command. Third Fleet wouldn't be recalled, as that doesn't make sense. But recalling Honor and a portion of Eighth might.

It depends on how long it takes to figure out what is going on.

I would assume the RHN didn't jump in blind into the system, the RMN just didn't notice it. So if that is the case their little spy would tell them what was going on.

I'd assume Tourville is authorized to negotiate, so that is what he'd do. Probably not with his whole fleet hanging out, but I don't know.

Agreed. Everyone within a week or two of flight from Manticore would know, including Haven (through the Junction). So if it's been two weeks since the attack, an emissary from Haven might already be in-system, with authenticated orders to Tourville to negotiate instead of fighting. Or might already be negotiating. Tourville's arrival would be the drop that broke the camel's back and forced the the Alliance to accept the terms.

Though that's not likely to be quick. Pritchart remained in Manticore for months and had Benjamin Mayhew and Herzog von Rabenstrage there to negotiate in person, binding their governments.

If it's been less, I agree Second Fleet had spies who would give updates. I argued above with Sigs that they would have known if the Python Lump had left the yards or a massive increase in forces in the system had happened. The yards having been destroyed would be included in that update.

The question is the order of events. Let's see how this could happen:

Battle Squadron 61 (including HMS Invictus) is recalled from Trevor's Star, so Honor is in orbit of Manticore, with D'Orville and McKeon. Pat Givens is arguing that it isn't the Havenites because they haven't seen any indication this could be happening; Honor agrees with her because she has talked to Cachat and Zilwicki before their going to Mesa. Elizabeth is angry, White Haven is playing moderator.

Case Zulu is sounded when suddenly 250 SD(P)s, CLACs plus support vessels drop outside the hyperlimit and start making way to Sphinx. While Honor, McKeon and D'Orville shuttle back to their respective commands, Tourville receives a system update from a hidden recorded buoy. Due to light-speed limitations, he's already crossed the hyperlimit when he gets it.

Tourville goes from excited because he caught Home Fleet far from Sphinx to worried when his long-range optical sensors can't find HMSS Vulcan and find chaos in the system. Then there's the "WTF?" moment when their comms people finally piece together what's happening and receive the intel from the buoy. He realises the yards are already gone and it wasn't Haven. He also realises that whoever did it was wilfully disregarding civilian lives and caused a planet strike. He wants no part of that. So he orders 232 of ships ships to reverse accel and the other 16 (2 squadrons, including the one he's in) to cut acceleration.

He opens communication to Manticore, that is over 12 light-minutes away. He gets a reply within 30 seconds relayed via a Hermes buoy. He's speaking to D'Orville, but Honor is listening in. He swears up and down that Haven was not responsible for that and as a show of good faith he sent most of his forces out of the hyperlimit. He wants to parley. Honor breaks through to D'Orville and gets the parley accepted. So Tourville advances with a single SD(P) to pinnace range of Home Fleet and then meets in person.