How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Sigs wrote:They were limited because the RHN didn't want to expose their systems unnecessarily and they went with that plan after Lovat because everything was in place and all they had to do was execute. The RHN didn't want to wait for the MA to deploy more of their SD(P)'s with Apollo and Keyhole, if they had waited an extra couple of months to gather forces the MA would have been able to deploy a hell of a lot more Apollo and Keyhole units making it that much harder on the RHN and with all the scouting that the Alliance was doing in the Republic someone is bound to figure out where they were going I mean there wouldn't be that many targets you would need a 400+ SD(P)'s to crack.

No, this was determined well before Lovat. Ship construction is fairly predicable.

"Why not take more of them to Manticore, then?"
"For four main reasons. First, out of that total number of pod-layers, something like a hundred will still be working up. They won't be up to full efficiency, their ships companies won't be fully integrated. In short, they won't really be fully combat-effective units.
"Second, the force we're committing ought to be enough to do the job, and it's going to be the biggest fleet of superdreadnoughts ever committed to action in a single battle by anyone, including the Solarian League. Even under a worst-case scenario, it should be more than powerful enough to beat an organized retreat with minimum losses. I realize Murphy's still likely to put in an appearance, but there would have to be some truly radical shift in the basic operational parameters for the Manties to seriously threaten its ability to look after itself.
"Third, we simply can't be certain where their Eighth Fleet is going to be at the moment we launch Beatrice. Suppose, for example, that they've sortied from Trevor's Star on another raiding expedition. In that case, our margin of superiority at Manticore would be even greater, but we've got to cover our own absolutely essential rear areas—like Bolthole, although there's no indication they've figured out where Bolthole is yet—against whatever Eighth Fleet might be doing while we're trashing Manticore.
"Fourth, there's the Andermani. The Manties and Graysons have lost about twenty superdreadnoughts—twelve of them pod-layers—since Thunderbolt wrapped up. That's about seven percent of their total podnoughts. But the Andies are still out there somewhere, and so far, we've seen very few of their capital ships. There are at least a couple of squadrons of them assigned to the Manties' Home Fleet, but that's about it. By our estimates, they should have somewhere around a hundred and twenty pod-layers by now—just about a third of the Manticoran Alliance's total—and we haven't seen them yet. We know they aren't at Trevor's Star, and intelligence suggests there's still some technical problem with them. We know they were conducting a major refit program on the Andy wallers, and we're assuming that explains their continued absence. But it's possible more of them will come forward before we launch Beatrice. And whatever happens in Manticore, the Andy ships that aren't there can't be destroyed. So we've got to retain enough of our own forces uncommitted to provide a strategic reserve against the sudden appearance of the Andermani Navy."

ThinksMarkedly wrote:(bold emphasis mine)

Theisman knows that he can't hold the system against a counterattack by whatever forces are outside of Manticore at the time.

Which indicated that the RHN has a hell of a lot more SD(P)'s than those assigned to Beatrice. In all the books of the second war, they consistently discuss how the Alliance is outnumbered, at the beginning of the war, the RMN had ~35 SD(P)'s under construction in the Manticore Home system, if I remember correctly, the IAN had ~90 SD(P)'s under construction and the GSN would have been going all out with maybe 50 SD(P)'s under construction. They GSN wouldn't be able to man them all but they can sell them to either the RMN or the IAN, so this brings the Alliance to a total of 232 SD(P)'s at start of war and ~175 SD(P)'s under construction. Lovat happened between 21 and 23 months after the initiation of hostilities so you can safely assume that the Alliance had laid down as many SD(P)'s as they have slips for.

So for Theisman to know that the 335 SD(P)'s he sends can likely defeat Home Fleet, 3rd and 8th Fleets as well but wont be able to hold off the other alliance fleets means that this cant be 80% of the RHN, because if it is and the battle goes wrong and costs the RHN 2nd and 5th Fleets the remaining alliance SD(P)'s can sweep through the Republic because it is protected between by between 80 and 250 SD(P)'s. It doesn't matter that the RHN knocks out the SKM's industry from the war if the MA knocks out the Haven System from the war and forces a surrender.

My point is that his plan called for deploying sufficient forces to defeat the 3 alliance Fleets and wreak the SKM's industry but it would leave the Republic with enough SD(P)'s to conduct the war.

He'd like to engage Third and Eighth Fleets in detail, but the main objective is the yards, then scoot. The RHN forces remaining are comparable to the MA forces remaining, but the construction ability wouldn't be. We also know that at this time the Python Lump hasn't left the Manticoran yards, so catching them there is definitely crippling.

The RHN cant outnumber the Alliance Fleet while at the same time be the approximately the same number and technologically inferior its either one or the other.

And your worry about what's left is also in the book, just a few paragraphs later, which is where the number of 620 comes from. He's retaining sufficient forces to parry Eighth Fleet, if they've sortied and don't participate in the Battle of Manticore, and Andermani units that they can't account for.

That is my point, she asks what do we have left over and he says at that point it would be 620 SD(P)'s in commission, he wont be counting the fleet he deploys for Beatrice because he doesn't know if he will lose 10%, 25%, 50% or 100% so he cant plan for those ships until they return. For the defence they would have 620 SD(P)'s but only ~520 would be combat ready the others would be working up.

And he actually doesn't think he's going to lose everything:

He doesn't think so, but then who does? Parnell was counting on wiping out 4 Squadrons of SD's right off the bat in the first war. He might think that Home Fleet, 8th Fleet, and 3rd Fleet are all there is in the two systems with a total of 130 SD(P)'s but the python lump or part of it might have happened earlier for a variety of reasons, suddenly he is facing 250 SD(P)'s, maybe 8th Fleet was in Manticore for whatever reason so now he is facing 50 SD(P)'s from Home Fleet, 40 SD(P)'s from 8th Fleet and another 50 SD(P)'s from 3rd Fleet with 100+ SD(P)'s working up in the system, not likely but it could happen.

Assuming that you will get back most of your fleet and counting them into the total for the defence of your nation is asking for trouble, not counting them in the total, deploying your defensive forces and being pleasantly surprised when 2nd Fleet and 5th Fleet arrive back with 80% of their SD(P)'s, but if they show up with only 17 SD(P)'s which is 5% of the total force like it actually happened would not have as dire consequences.

In the first scenario you don't account for them and they show up that is 270 SD(P)'s you can now keep in central offensive fleet or distribute for defence, the other you account for 336 SD(P)'s in your defensive stategy and only get back 17 SD(P)'s.

So he expects very heavy losses, but not to lose everything. So say "very heavy losses" is two thirds: that means 112 wallers are able to leave. That adds to the 620-336=284 modern wallers not committed to the operation and another 300 older ones, against at best Eighth Fleet, some 100 IAN wallers not part of Home and Eighth Fleets and another 100 maybe from the GSN. That's numerically inferior in modern wallers and they need to defend three home systems. As we've seen happen, Eighth Fleet became Home Fleet and couldn't sortie to attack.

Their intelligence(RHN) suggested there were ~420 Alliance SD(P)'s in service, destroying 130 of them and losing 221 SD(P)'s of your own leaves you with once again forces that equal. The RHN cant protect more systems with a heavier picket per system and ad the same time have the same # of the SD(P)'s as the alliance.

What he didn't count on was to get only 17 SD(P)s back and not destroy the Manticoran shipyards.

And there is the problem, if they have 956 SD(P)'s and lose 320 SD(P)'s in one battle it would be devastating but not the end because they still have sufficient forces to protect the republic even if they have to give ground, on the other hand if they had only 620 SD(P)'s and the attack goes wrong and the Fleet comes back with only 17 SD(P)'s the they now have 301 SD(P)'s while the alliance has 290 SD(P)'s. Do you see where the MA having near parity but technological edge would mean that the MA is winning the war? If the two sides had close to equal numbers I would not be as worried as the alliance was about the war.

kzt wrote:
No, this was determined well before Lovat. Ship construction is fairly predicable.

But Apollo and Keyhole weren't predictable, so they couldn't know exactly how many ships are in refit and nearing completion of refit with those systems, and they don't know how many SD(P)'s under construction are equipped with those systems.

If the Alliance Fleet had 420 SD(P)'s and ~15% of them were in refit, that could be as many as 63 more SD(P)'s with the new systems. Hell the RHN cant even know for sure how hard it is to install the new system, it could be simple software, or a week long install or it could require construction from the keel out with Apollo and Keyhole in mind. So for them, they cant know if the extra month or two it would take to gather their fleet will allow the MA the chance to equip another 100 SD(P)'s with the new systems. At some point, if the RHN was waiting for the extra ships they will end up facing a much stronger enemy than if they just went with what was already assigned to the offensive.

Imagine Home Fleet and 3rd Fleet being equipped with Apollo and Keyhole, the battle would have turned out much different even with 600 RHN SD(P)'s.

Quick note: this is my 1000th post in the forum. Glad to be around discussing with intelligent folks, on a topic I enjoy!

Sigs wrote:So for Theisman to know that the 335 SD(P)'s he sends can likely defeat Home Fleet, 3rd and 8th Fleets as well but wont be able to hold off the other alliance fleets means that this cant be 80% of the RHN, because if it is and the battle goes wrong and costs the RHN 2nd and 5th Fleets the remaining alliance SD(P)'s can sweep through the Republic because it is protected between by between 80 and 250 SD(P)'s. It doesn't matter that the RHN knocks out the SKM's industry from the war if the MA knocks out the Haven System from the war and forces a surrender.

See below.

My point is that his plan called for deploying sufficient forces to defeat the 3 alliance Fleets and wreak the SKM's industry but it would leave the Republic with enough SD(P)'s to conduct the war.

No, see below.

The RHN cant outnumber the Alliance Fleet while at the same time be the approximately the same number and technologically inferior its either one or the other.

I was rounding. The fleets would be within ±100 of each other, with the RHN having numerical superiority and technical inferiority, which means they'd roughly on par in fighting force. This is the thinking behind Beatrice, before Apollo was launched.

An Apollo-equipped force can trash a much larger RHN force, though. That only makes it more urgent to take out the production facilities before Apollo is widespread.

e] That is my point, she asks what do we have left over and he says at that point it would be 620 SD(P)'s in commission, he wont be counting the fleet he deploys for Beatrice because he doesn't know if he will lose 10%, 25%, 50% or 100% so he cant plan for those ships until they return. For the defence they would have 620 SD(P)'s but only ~520 would be combat ready the others would be working up.

Beatrice's planners had a very good assessment of the reality: a third of the ships should be able to extricate themselves. Apollo made that uncertain, but Apollo also made Beatrice a "must win" -- it didn't matter if none of the ships came back, so long as they won the war in the process.

And Tourville could have escaped. We discussed this in another thread and I calculated a stern chase by Eighth Fleet, but couldn't come to a definite conclusion because we don't now the geometry and a lot of other parameters. But Honor herself confessed to Tourville she couldn't have taken his remaining forces from 8 light-minutes away. She bluffed and he fell for it.

Assuming that you will get back most of your fleet and counting them into the total for the defence of your nation is asking for trouble, not counting them in the total, deploying your defensive forces and being pleasantly surprised when 2nd Fleet and 5th Fleet arrive back with 80% of their SD(P)'s, but if they show up with only 17 SD(P)'s which is 5% of the total force like it actually happened would not have as dire consequences.

This is the point: he's not counting on them for the defence of his nation. Beatrice's objective was the yards and Home Fleet; Beatrice Bravo had a hook to get forces from Trevor's Star, which would include at least Third Fleet. If those objectives were accomplished, the MA would be unable to match RoH construction rate, so even with technological superiority, they would still lose. Theisman was clear on that: "Without the Manticoran yards, their Alliance can't possibly match our construction ability, and they'll know it. Which means they'll have no choice but to surrender."

And he's not the CPS: his admirals know that if they can't achieve their objectives, they can make a run for it without fear of being put in front of a firing squad. They wouldn't throw the forces away if they couldn't achieve the objectives.

If they can only achieve a lesser objective of crippling Home Fleet, then the MA must reorganise their OOB, meaning that Eighth Fleet would be unable to sortie. This happened: Eighth Fleet became Home Fleet for months, until the Python Lump entered service. But this wouldn't be decisive: the war would continue.

All of this was true before Apollo. Apollo only made it more urgent: no matter how many units came back, if the yards were intact, the MA would recover more quickly (it did) and would throw more Apollo-equipped units against his. It wouldn't matter if he had 284 SD(P)s or 584: Haven would have lost the war either way, only the timing and number of lives lost changing before the final surrender. And neither Theisman nor Pritchart would have allowed that to drag on, so they knew they would surrender.

Their intelligence(RHN) suggested there were ~420 Alliance SD(P)'s in service, destroying 130 of them and losing 221 SD(P)'s of your own leaves you with once again forces that equal. The RHN cant protect more systems with a heavier picket per system and ad the same time have the same # of the SD(P)'s as the alliance.

They're not trying to. The effective forces left from Beatrice are protecting critical areas. I suppose that's two or three systems only, with Haven and Bolthole being two of them. The rest are probably for show in the systems that Eighth Fleet was scouting, lest they figure out that he's massing for a concentrated attack.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I was rounding. The fleets would be within ±100 of each other, with the RHN having numerical superiority and technical inferiority, which means they'd roughly on par in fighting force. This is the thinking behind Beatrice, before Apollo was launched.

What was the reason to launch Cutworm Operations? What was Manticore trying to accomplish? Why select those targets? Why such a small 8th Fleet?

An Apollo-equipped force can trash a much larger RHN force, though. That only makes it more urgent to take out the production facilities before Apollo is widespread.

Yeah, so you go with the forces and plan you already had rather than try to gather more of your fleet before you launch the operation.

Beatrice's planners had a very good assessment of the reality: a third of the ships should be able to extricate themselves. Apollo made that uncertain, but Apollo also made Beatrice a "must win" -- it didn't matter if none of the ships came back, so long as they won the war in the process.

Beatrice was planned with a fallback for the Republic, meaning the rest of the fleet, if things went wrong there would still be a fleet to defend the republic. Lovat changed the urgency but that same urgency prevented them from gathering more of a force.

Planning an operation that would leave you with 185 fully operational SD(P)'s and 100 SD(P)'s working in the event of a complete destruction while you have the edge in ships is a good way to get fired. Before Lovat the RHN had the ships to go on an offensive, with a fleet of 335 SD(P)'s they could have launched a general offensive against Trevor's Star, left a picket and their damaged ships, reorganize and go after each of the Alliance members. Once 3rd and 8th Fleets are destroyed move towards Grayson and take out the GSN Home Fleet and its 50-60 SD(P)'s. The RHN has at that point taken out 130 Alliance SD(P)'s in 2 individual battles each with overwhelming force all with nothing more then 50-60 damaged or destroyed SD(P)'s. Instead you are telling me that the RoH instructed the RHN to deploy between 55% and 80% depending on which numbers you take on a winner take all operation.

My main point is that the Alliance was fighting from a position of weakens, not a position of equality or slightly behind numerically, they were trying to force the RHN to redeploy to cover their rear systems in order to dissipate their offensive force. I believe that the Alliance SD(P)'s were about 1.3 to 1 when compared to the RHN SD(P)'s, so the 420 SD(P)'s would be able to take on the entire operational RHN for dinner and then take the 100 or so SD(P)'s working up for desert.

And Tourville could have escaped. We discussed this in another thread and I calculated a stern chase by Eighth Fleet, but couldn't come to a definite conclusion because we don't now the geometry and a lot of other parameters. But Honor herself confessed to Tourville she couldn't have taken his remaining forces from 8 light-minutes away. She bluffed and he fell for it.

It doesn't matter if he could have escaped, when planning I wouldn't assume that I will get at least 1/3 of my force back. That's like sending TF 12.3 to Hancock with the expectation that you get it back or most of it because they are going up against only 5 SD's and getting only 18% of your force come back with significant damage without even engaging the main enemy fleet. Any number of things could have happened that demolished their fleet, so counting it with the total of what you will have available to defend your territory seems a little presumptuous of Theisman.

This is the point: he's not counting on them for the defence of his nation. Beatrice's objective was the yards and Home Fleet; Beatrice Bravo had a hook to get forces from Trevor's Star, which would include at least Third Fleet. If those objectives were accomplished, the MA would be unable to match RoH construction rate, so even with technological superiority, they would still lose. Theisman was clear on that: "Without the Manticoran yards, their Alliance can't possibly match our construction ability, and they'll know it. Which means they'll have no choice but to surrender."

I am talking about the chance of something going wrong, 2nd Fleet getting destroyed before 5th Fleet can intervene.

If they accomplish their mission the MA wont have the ability to continue the war, but that is a big IF. There are any number of things that can cause someone to lose a battle, things you cant always predict, not leaving yourself a fudge factor if something goes horribly wrong like exiting hyper in the middle of a 150 SD formation trying to test Home Fleet and sneak into the system. Or a new weapon. Or 8th Fleet is on exercise with Home Fleet and the missing IAN SD(P)'s that Theisman was talking about are there as well, suddenly 2nd Fleet goes from facing 50 SD(P)'s with his 240 SD(P)'s to facing 170 SD(P)'s with his 240 SD(P)'s while the alliance has the tech advantage and virtually unlimited supply of pods. My point is that anything can happen so you don't count on those ships to come back until they come back. Just like you don't count/spend you year end bonus in your salary until it gets deposited or don't count benefits that could be revoked without notice towards your budget.

And he's not the CPS: his admirals know that if they can't achieve their objectives, they can make a run for it without fear of being put in front of a firing squad. They wouldn't throw the forces away if they couldn't achieve the objectives.

Its not them throwing their forces away, its them entering the system in energy range(Battle of Talbot) of someone who ruins their day. Or they run up against significantly more opposition than they assumed. They can be willing to run if things get too hot, but if the Alliance had done a massive push and got 100 SD(P)'s up an running ahead of schedule and they had veteran crews from the SD's the alliance is decommissioning it could turn a perfectly plan into disaster in minutes.

If they can only achieve a lesser objective of crippling Home Fleet, then the MA must reorganise their OOB, meaning that Eighth Fleet would be unable to sortie. This happened: Eighth Fleet became Home Fleet for months, until the Python Lump entered service. But this wouldn't be decisive: the war would continue.

Not if they end up with only 285 SD(P)'s and with the Python Lump the Alliance ends up with a larger fleet than the RHN.

All of this was true before Apollo. Apollo only made it more urgent: no matter how many units came back, if the yards were intact, the MA would recover more quickly (it did) and would throw more Apollo-equipped units against his. It wouldn't matter if he had 284 SD(P)s or 584: Haven would have lost the war either way, only the timing and number of lives lost changing before the final surrender. And neither Theisman nor Pritchart would have allowed that to drag on, so they knew they would surrender.

That's why I can see a Hail Mary after Lovat but not so much if the RHN is actually winning. If I was winning I wouldn't gamble on that one battle, if I knew I was screwed within a few months I would send everything and the kitchen sink, I wouldn't worry about defending my territory.

They're not trying to. The effective forces left from Beatrice are protecting critical areas. I suppose that's two or three systems only, with Haven and Bolthole being two of them. The rest are probably for show in the systems that Eighth Fleet was scouting, lest they figure out that he's massing for a concentrated attack.

I cant find it right now, but Theisman said to Pritchart that the RHN was able to launch the operation that quickly because they redeployed the fleet before Lovat... you know before 3rd Fleet was crushed in Lovat. I am thinking it wasn't the only force that the RHN had deployed in a similar fashion, I would go ahead and say that maybe there was 2 or 3 more such fleets deployed in different systems to increase the chances of catching 8th Fleet in another Ambush, covering one out of a few dozen systems seems like a losing proposition.

So if 335 SD(P)'s or even if only 250 SD(P)'s were pre deployed and the RHN had 3-4 fleets like 3rd Fleet deployed around the republic covering some systems then that would mean they had deployed between 150 and 200 SD(P)'s to cover the systems, Capital Fleet, Bolthole Picket and a dozen other tier 1 systems. If the RoH edonomy was devastated by the destruction of Lovat and Lovat was one of the top 20 but not near the top in the republic I would assume there are a few other systems that warrant significant pickets.

So on the low end:
-there are 150 SD(P)'s deployed to cover the rear
-at least 250 SD(P)'s predeployed if not more than 300 SD(P)'s
- Capital Fleet
-Bolt Hole
-half a dozen important systems
-ships deployed to the front lines

I would assume that the alliance would scout various systems frequently and randomly, so if they see that the frontline systems are empty of SD(P)'s and the systems 8th Fleet is scouting are empty of SD(P)'s and no reaction forces something bad is going on.

Umm, Beatrice WAS an offensive. It was a very, very big offensive, against a war winning target. The problem with offenses that have the potential to achieve decisive results is that it's only going to be decisive if you commit a vary large amount of your best units. So if the offensive somehow get crushed like a bug you have lost your ability to carry out another large-scale offensive.

For example, the Germans launched the ambitious Case Blue offensive in 1942, which ultimately resulted in total disaster, including the destruction of the German Sixth Army in Stalingrad. Case Blue was pretty much the last large scale offensive the Germans launched, everything after that was either much smaller scale or defensive operations.

Refusing to commit to a potentially war winning operation because it might fail is exactly what the PRN did at the start of the war. Wars are risky, your opponent is actively trying to kill you and defeat your plans. if you are not willing to take risks you need to figure out how to not go to war.

Sigs wrote:What was the reason to launch Cutworm Operations? What was Manticore trying to accomplish? Why select those targets? Why such a small 8th Fleet?

What was the reason to launch Cutworm? To keep the RHN off-balance, having to spread their forces thin to parry any assault which they didn't know where would land. In that sense, it was a success: no major RHN operations were launched between Thunderbolt and Beatrice. It also restored the initiative to the MA.

Why select those targets? They were targets the RHN could not ignore, they had to defend. They were not critical like Haven or Bolthole, but important enough it could not yield without a fight.

Why such a small Eighth Fleet? It was all the MA could put together.

Yeah, so you go with the forces and plan you already had rather than try to gather more of your fleet before you launch the operation.

Yes, when time is of essence.

Beatrice was planned with a fallback for the Republic, meaning the rest of the fleet, if things went wrong there would still be a fleet to defend the republic. Lovat changed the urgency but that same urgency prevented them from gathering more of a force.

Planning an operation that would leave you with 185 fully operational SD(P)'s and 100 SD(P)'s working in the event of a complete destruction while you have the edge in ships is a good way to get fired. Before Lovat the RHN had the ships to go on an offensive, with a fleet of 335 SD(P)'s they could have launched a general offensive against Trevor's Star, left a picket and their damaged ships, reorganize and go after each of the Alliance members. Once 3rd and 8th Fleets are destroyed move towards Grayson and take out the GSN Home Fleet and its 50-60 SD(P)'s. The RHN has at that point taken out 130 Alliance SD(P)'s in 2 individual battles each with overwhelming force all with nothing more then 50-60 damaged or destroyed SD(P)'s. Instead you are telling me that the RoH instructed the RHN to deploy between 55% and 80% depending on which numbers you take on a winner take all operation.

I agree with your first paragraph and disagree with the second. If Theisman said that there was a good chance the forces sent to Manticore could extricate themselves, he had very good reason to believe so. He wasn't padding the numbers or trying to tell Pritchart what she wanted to hear. He was being honest. And as I said before: he was right, until Apollo changed everything.

Attacking Trevor's Star does not achieve Beatrice's objectives: it does not end the war. Even trashing Grayson is doubtful that could end the war. Trashing the Manticoran shipyards, preferably with Home Fleet as a bonus, would.

He might have had another plan in the lines of what you're describing. Chapter 54 starts with him telling Pritchart of two of the plans they had, which means they had more. He just chose to brief Prichart on the two he thought she most needed to know: Beatrice and Camille (that alone tells me there was another one with a woman's name starting with A). Camille was a response to an attack but not serious escalation; they'd respond showing that they were clearly holding back so pretty please come back to the negotiating table. Beatrice was for all the marbles. There must have been something in-between.

My main point is that the Alliance was fighting from a position of weakens, not a position of equality or slightly behind numerically, they were trying to force the RHN to redeploy to cover their rear systems in order to dissipate their offensive force. I believe that the Alliance SD(P)'s were about 1.3 to 1 when compared to the RHN SD(P)'s, so the 420 SD(P)'s would be able to take on the entire operational RHN for dinner and then take the 100 or so SD(P)'s working up for desert.

I agree: the MA was operating from a position of weakness, which is why Honor was getting all the new construction as fast as it could be rushed to her. She was doing all her tactical brilliance allowed her to keep the RHN off-balance.

But the MA did not have 420 SD(P)s. See Fleet Strengths in 1920 where it adds up to only 232, with most of the RMN's SD(P) only Medusas. There was new construction since this datum and the planning of Beatrice, I agree, but there were also losses. Theisman says the MA had lost 20 SD(P)s since Thunderbolt. Furthermore, there were three home systems to protect, not just one, and most of the Andermani wall of battle wasn't able to fight.

If they had 300 SD(P) -- which they didn't -- they d need a 2:1 superiority in technology to take on the 520 fully combat-effective RHN SD(P)s, and that's if the 100 others working up didn't throw a wrench in the plans.

It doesn't matter if he could have escaped, when planning I wouldn't assume that I will get at least 1/3 of my force back. That's like sending TF 12.3 to Hancock with the expectation that you get it back or most of it because they are going up against only 5 SD's and getting only 18% of your force come back with significant damage without even engaging the main enemy fleet. Any number of things could have happened that demolished their fleet, so counting it with the total of what you will have available to defend your territory seems a little presumptuous of Theisman.

I understand you wouldn't. But Theisman did and he said so himself.

But once again, the important thing is that if the objective was achieved (destroying the Manticoran yards and Home Fleet), it doesn't matter if very few ships return. He'd still have 300 SD(P)s undamaged, with his yards intact, while the MA would have lost a significant portion of theirs with no ability to replace in the short-term. The mobile forces would have to be redispositioned to cover the MBS, leaving none to attack the Republic. As a result, we wouldn't have Honor coming to Haven to negotiate with Pritchart, it would have been Theisman coming to Manticore to negotiate with Elizabeth.

I am talking about the chance of something going wrong, 2nd Fleet getting destroyed before 5th Fleet can intervene.

Too small a chance. Tourville (and Giscard before him) could control the initiative and fly exactly where he wanted to. If he found sometheing he couldn't chew, he could withdraw and the assessment was that he had enough firepower to do so.

And if 5th Fleet didn't intervene, then Fifth Fleet leaves undamaged -- one third the ships come home.

If they accomplish their mission the MA wont have the ability to continue the war, but that is a big IF. There are any number of things that can cause someone to lose a battle, things you cant always predict, not leaving yourself a fudge factor if something goes horribly wrong like exiting hyper in the middle of a 150 SD formation trying to test Home Fleet and sneak into the system. Or a new weapon. Or 8th Fleet is on exercise with Home Fleet and the missing IAN SD(P)'s that Theisman was talking about are there as well, suddenly 2nd Fleet goes from facing 50 SD(P)'s with his 240 SD(P)'s to facing 170 SD(P)'s with his 240 SD(P)'s while the alliance has the tech advantage and virtually unlimited supply of pods. My point is that anything can happen so you don't count on those ships to come back until they come back. Just like you don't count/spend you year end bonus in your salary until it gets deposited or don't count benefits that could be revoked without notice towards your budget.

You give them the best chance they have to come home. He did two things: he gave them as many ships as he could, and 2nd Fleet alone was the largest gathering of SDs ever, and he gave them his best CO.

Its not them throwing their forces away, its them entering the system in energy range(Battle of Talbot) of someone who ruins their day. Or they run up against significantly more opposition than they assumed. They can be willing to run if things get too hot, but if the Alliance had done a massive push and got 100 SD(P)'s up an running ahead of schedule and they had veteran crews from the SD's the alliance is decommissioning it could turn a perfectly plan into disaster in minutes.

Even so, 2nd Fleet wouldn't sell themselves short. Even if they ran into the combined forces of Home Fleet, Eighth Fleet, the new construction and the IAN, that adds up to only as many hulls as 2nd Fleet itself. First of all, that is not going to happen. Second, if none of the 2nd Fleet comes home, then at least half of those massed forces don't either. That reduces the MA wall of battle by half in modern hulls, but the RHN wall of battle by only a third in modern hulls. It's a horrible price to pay, but not immediately fatal.

This plan was risky, there's no doubt about it. But the rewards were great.

And the plan was not authorised to be executed until Lovat. We don't know what Pritchart would have ordered if Operation Sanskrit had been done without Apollo.

If they can only achieve a lesser objective of crippling Home Fleet, then the MA must reorganise their OOB, meaning that Eighth Fleet would be unable to sortie. This happened: Eighth Fleet became Home Fleet for months, until the Python Lump entered service. But this wouldn't be decisive: the war would continue.

Not if they end up with only 285 SD(P)'s and with the Python Lump the Alliance ends up with a larger fleet than the RHN.

An unlikely scenario. How would would 336 SD(P)s be lost almost entirely without getting a significant portion of the defenders and/or the infrastructure?

Almost any answer to that question is a reason why they had to take the risk. If the Python Lump comes out of the yards and the Andermani finally show up for battle, the balance shifts. If there's some technological advance, the balance shifts.

That's why I can see a Hail Mary after Lovat but not so much if the RHN is actually winning. If I was winning I wouldn't gamble on that one battle, if I knew I was screwed within a few months I would send everything and the kitchen sink, I wouldn't worry about defending my territory.

I don't agree it was a Hail Mary Pass before Apollo.

I cant find it right now, but Theisman said to Pritchart that the RHN was able to launch the operation that quickly because they redeployed the fleet before Lovat... you know before 3rd Fleet was crushed in Lovat. I am thinking it wasn't the only force that the RHN had deployed in a similar fashion, I would go ahead and say that maybe there was 2 or 3 more such fleets deployed in different systems to increase the chances of catching 8th Fleet in another Ambush, covering one out of a few dozen systems seems like a losing proposition.

Indeed, the deployment for Beatrice started before Lovat, before Giscard died. But the operation wasn't yet authorised. That means not all ships that eventually were part of Beatrice had yet deployed. So those 2 or 3 other fleets would still be on-station wherever they were.

So if 335 SD(P)'s or even if only 250 SD(P)'s were pre deployed and the RHN had 3-4 fleets like 3rd Fleet deployed around the republic covering some systems then that would mean they had deployed between 150 and 200 SD(P)'s to cover the systems, Capital Fleet, Bolthole Picket and a dozen other tier 1 systems. If the RoH edonomy was devastated by the destruction of Lovat and Lovat was one of the top 20 but not near the top in the republic I would assume there are a few other systems that warrant significant pickets.

I disagree with your number. I'd revise it down to 200 SD(P)s pre-deployed. We know the RHN was at least 620 SD(P)s. Yes, 100 were still working up, but they could be used in support of the other ships when defending their systems, if need be. And they're working up somewhere so it might as well be where attacks are expect to happen. Let's also say that Capital Fleet and the Bolthole Picket are 150 ships. That leaves 620 - 150 - 200 = 270 ships for Theisman to cover the important systems. That's sufficient in my book.

I would assume that the alliance would scout various systems frequently and randomly, so if they see that the frontline systems are empty of SD(P)'s and the systems 8th Fleet is scouting are empty of SD(P)'s and no reaction forces something bad is going on.

Which is why I said that a portion of the remaining ships would be used to trick the Eighth Fleet scouts. And you don't make it easy for the scouts to know where you are (and thus where you're not). I don't expect the scouts could actually see more than a single SD(P) squadron in any system they scouted. The rest would be in stealth in distant parts of the system. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Another point is the Pearl itself. In 1920, the RHN had 315 SD(P)s. Beatrice was planned before the Battle of Lovat, in May 1921. Explain how the RHN goes from 315 to 956 SD(P)s, knowing that Bolthole only started producing SD(P)s in 1916 at the earliest and none of the others before 1919 (Operation Thunderbolt). Note how the number of SDs also went up, so those other yards completed at least another 100 SDs before kicking them out the door.

I'm hard pressed to explain how it went from 315 to 620. My explanation would be that 315 that participated in Operation Thunderbolt were the first wave out of Bolthole. The next 350 came out of the Bolthole second wave and the first few out of the other shipyards, which Theisman was smart to prepare materials to build with, but not actually start construction that could be identified as SD(P).

If the RHN could produce 600+ SD(P)s in one year, there's no way the MA could have won. Their construction rates were at best one fourth of that, combined.

Sigs wrote:My main point is that the Alliance was fighting from a position of weakens, not a position of equality or slightly behind numerically, they were trying to force the RHN to redeploy to cover their rear systems in order to dissipate their offensive force. I believe that the Alliance SD(P)'s were about 1.3 to 1 when compared to the RHN SD(P)'s, so the 420 SD(P)'s would be able to take on the entire operational RHN for dinner and then take the 100 or so SD(P)'s working up for desert.

Manticore was fighting from a position of weakness for most of At All Costs, it is acknowledged in chapter 10 when they discuss the rational for Cutworm:

"The truth is that the deployment cupboard is bare, people. We're scraping the bottom of the barrel just to maintain the fleets we've got to have to cover our critical core systems. We simply can't reduce them any further, even with all of the system-defense pods and other fortifications we can put into position. But bad as the situation is, it's going to get worse before it gets better. We'll get to the exact figures ONI is projecting shortly, but what matters for our purposes right this minute is that the Havenites' wall of battle is already bigger than ours is, and it's going to grow faster than ours is for at least the next two T-years.
"Which means that, if they're prepared to take the losses, they probably have—or shortly will have—the combat power they need to hammer Manticore or Grayson."
Her office was deathly still and silent.
"Needless to say, all of that is highly classified information," she continued after a moment. "We don't know if the Republic is as well aware of those numbers as we are, but we have to assume they are. After all, our prewar strength was pretty much a matter of public record; theirs wasn't, so they started with an intelligence advantage. However, we're hoping they won't want to take such massive losses if they can possibly avoid it. And the job of Eighth Fleet, at this moment, is to persuade them to disperse as much of their fleet strength as possible, so that it won't be available for offensive operations."
"So they're giving us units optimized for raiding operations," McKeon said.
"Exactly." Honor nodded. "The idea is for us to wreak a fair amount of havoc in the Republic's rear areas. They can't have built up and maintained a fleet the size of their present navy without having weakened themselves somewhere. For example, ONI's best estimate, from all the intelligence sources we still have in the Republic, is that one thing they did was to scrap all the old battleships the Old Regime was using for rear-area defense. Even if they hadn't needed the manpower anywhere else, those ships would have been sitting ducks for MDMs and LACs, so it would make a lot of sense to retire them. But it's unlikely they've been able to replace them out of new construction, either. It's more probable they're relying on light units and, possibly, LACs of their own for normal security. Undoubtedly, they also hope the damage they did to us in their opening operation knocked back our offensive capability badly enough we won't be in any position to take advantage of the weakness of their secondary systems' defenses. Our job is to convince them they're wrong."
"And they gave you Eighth Fleet, and played up its role as our 'primary offensive force,' to help convince them of that," McKeon said. Honor looked at him, and he shrugged. "It's not that hard to figure out, Honor. If the Admiralty gave you the assignment after Sidemore, then clearly it regards Eighth Fleet as a critical command which it will reinforce as rapidly as possible. Which means the Peeps are going to have to assume that whatever we do to them with raids will only grow steadily in intensity and weight. Right?"

However by the time of Sanskrit that weakness would only last until Apollo and Keyhole II were in general production and usage, chapter 52:

"Hamish," he turned to his brother, "what are our military options?"
"Essentially what they were before Pritchart's invitation," Hamish replied. "One thing that's changed is that Eighth Fleet's had longer to receive munitions and train with them. We've got a few new wrinkles we think are going to make our ships considerably more effective, and the additional training time will stand Eighth Fleet in good stead. However, at this time, Eighth Fleet is the only formation we've got which is fully trained with the new weapons. It's also the only formation that's equipped with the new weapons, because only the Invictuses and the Graysons' late-flight Harringtons—" he smiled wryly at the class name, despite his somber mood "—can operate them without refitting."
"Why is that?" Grantville asked. "I thought the pods were the same dimensions?"
"They are, but only the ships built with Keyhole capability from the outset can handle the Mark Two platforms, and they're essential to making the new missiles work. We can refit with Keyhole II—in fact, the decision to build that in is part of what's delayed the Andermani refits—but it requires placing the ship in yard hands for at least eight to ten weeks. And, frankly, we can't stand down our existing ships that long when we're this tightly strapped. All our new construction is being altered on the ways to be Keyhole II-capable, and when it starts coming into commission, we can probably start pulling the older ships back for refit.
"But at the moment, only Eighth Fleet is really equipped to handle them, and even they have only partial loadouts on the new pods. We're attempting to get into full production on them as quickly as possible, but we've hit some bottlenecks, and security issues have restricted the number of production facilities we could commit to them."
"But Eighth Fleet could resume active operations immediately?"

So your analysis is correct for the period of Operation Cutworm, but will shortly be completely invalid because of the deployment of Apollo. The leaders of Haven realized when reviewing the results of the attack on Lovat that their fleet was becoming obsolete. At that point their only viable choice was to win before their numerical superiority was reduced to just presenting more targets for the RMN. If anything the demonstration of Apollo at Lovat was too effective.

kzt wrote:Umm, Beatrice WAS an offensive. It was a very, very big offensive, against a war winning target. The problem with offenses that have the potential to achieve decisive results is that it's only going to be decisive if you commit a vary large amount of your best units. So if the offensive somehow get crushed like a bug you have lost your ability to carry out another large-scale offensive.

Yes, it was an offensive. Thank You for the clarification.

It was a reckless offensive before Lovat if the RHN had Force Level of 415 SD(P)'s or 620 SD(P)'s. If the RHN had a force level of 920 SD(P)'s as per my understanding, it was an offensive well worth the risk. In Scenario 1 and 2 if something goes wrong there is no fallback, you lose the war, with 1 its a lot quicker than with 2 but with both the end result is defeat. This is completely illogical when the RHN is winning the war before 15 May 1921. In scenario 3 the RHN sends enough ships to defeat twice the expected strength of Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet, and 8th Fleet but at the same time there is a fall back, if things go wrong and 2nd Fleet and 5th Fleet are destroyed the RHN has a position to fight from, still has 620 SD(P)'s continue the war and in fact can launch limited offensives depending on what kind of losses the Alliance suffered.

Scenario 1 and 2 are reckless for a nation which is winning a war to commit to. Scenario 3 is a dangerous operation that has the possibility to make the war significantly harder for the RHN if defeated but they don't automatically lose the war if they lose 2nd and 5th Fleet.

In one scenario you go from winning the war to losing the war in an afternoon when you didn't have to, in the other you go from winning the war to a lot harder but still winning the war.

Refusing to commit to a potentially war winning operation because it might fail is exactly what the PRN did at the start of the war. Wars are risky, your opponent is actively trying to kill you and defeat your plans. if you are not willing to take risks you need to figure out how to not go to war.

Refusing to commit to a potentially war winning operation because it might fail and leave your nation defenceless seems like a logical reason.

If the RHN send 335 SD(P)'s of their total 950 SD(P)'s to Manticore its a worthwhile risk, they send enough ships to fight through Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet and 100 SD(P)'s that are unexpectedly there. Sending another 300 SD(P)'s doesn't change the equation much, doesn't increase the chances of success but will leave you exposed.

If the RHN on the other hand send 335 SD(P)'s of their total 620 SD(P)'s to Manticore its an unacceptable risk, they send enough ships to fight through Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet and 100 SD(P)'s that are unexpectedly there but they leave themselves exposed at home, they leave only 285 SD(P)'s to cover the rest of the republic considering ~100 of them were not even operational yet.

If the RHN send 335 SD(P)'s of their total 415 SD(P)'s to Manticore its an insane risk, they send enough ships to fight through Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet and 100 SD(P)'s that are unexpectedly there. Yet they left the rest of their territory covered by 80 SD(P)'s. This leaves all of your important systems exposed and if the attacking fleet is crushed it leaves you with nothing to continue the war with.

My position is not that Beatrice was not worthwhile, it is that it was worthwhile only if you had sufficient forces left over if it failed. If the day before Beatrice you are winning the war very handily, Beatrice fails and the day after you are in an untenable position then its not worth the risk.