How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

Theemile wrote:David said at the time that there were 80 more active SD(p)s in the RHN beyond the Beatrice force. Another 6-700 were in the pipeline, but the original 2 surges out of Bolthole had completed; all of Haven's shipyards were now constructing SD(p)s which took 36-48 months to build, depending on the yard tech. The 6-700 would be completing in the 2 years after Beatrice.

Sigs wrote:Also if you look "At all cost" you will see that they planned Beatrice before Lovat but after the failure of the summit. There is no way they can justify pulling 80%+ of their wall from their systems for an operation or even 54% of their fleet if the total was 620 SD(P)'s. After Lovat they may have been willing to go all out, but before they still would have had to protect their important systems as well as Haven and Bolthole even if they were sure no one knew where it was.

Since it is possible to begin planning a military operation before it is practical to undertake, I am not sure what you are trying to say. With the evidence of Lovat, they knew that they had to execute; before then the plan was just another contingency. If you wait to begin planning until action is absolutely necessary, then you might not have time to consider all the details.

Sigs wrote:Also if you look "At all cost" you will see that they planned Beatrice before Lovat but after the failure of the summit. There is no way they can justify pulling 80%+ of their wall from their systems for an operation or even 54% of their fleet if the total was 620 SD(P)'s. After Lovat they may have been willing to go all out, but before they still would have had to protect their important systems as well as Haven and Bolthole even if they were sure no one knew where it was.

No, the only way you build the kind of force that has the capability to do that kind of damage is to take risks. The RHN deployed 50% of their total fleet, with the hope that they would win outright, or failing that - do so much damage to manticore that they are unable to take advantage of the RHN relative weakness before their new construction comes on line. But if it goes seriously wrong Haven can also lose the entire war in an afternoon and they are well aware of that.

They got away with it becuause they are on the offensive and have forced the RMN into a strategic and operational defensive strategy. Even 8th fleet hadn't done anything for months. The RMN had totally surrendered the initiative.

This, by the way, is why good unit leaders patrol outside their bases. The enemy is always up to something, and if you let them show you their clever plan at a time and date of their choosing it's quite a bit more likely to work out for them than if you force them to react.

Then inside the execution of Beatrice you saw exactly the same thing - the RMN totally letting the attacker determine the range and timing of the fight. And oddly enough, the attacker choose a time and range that favored their weapons instead of the RMN.

tlb wrote:Since it is possible to begin planning a military operation before it is practical to undertake, I am not sure what you are trying to say. With the evidence of Lovat, they knew that they had to execute; before then the plan was just another contingency. If you wait to begin planning until action is absolutely necessary, then you might not have time to consider all the details.

The RHN managed to hit Manticore just over 2 months from the Battle of Lovat because they set themselves up for the operation right after the summit failed.

It may be a contingency, but when they are on top of the situation at that point, they have more ships than the alliance and they are close enough technologically to not truly worry. So for them to plan an all out attack on the Manticore system with 80%+ of the SD(P)'s while they are not desperate for victory(pre-Battle of Lovat) is insane, they would strip Haven System, Bolthole and every major industrial system almost bare or all of them would be defenceless and have only 80 SD(P)'s in Haven.

Scenario 1: The Alliance had at least 420 SD(P)'s according to the estimates of Naval Intelligence, so throwing 80% of your 415 SD(P)'s against the most heavily defended system in human space and its potential 130 SD(P)'s in Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet seems like a bad idea because if anything goes wrong and you lose your fleet, even if you wipe out all three allied fleets the war is over, they have ~290 SD(P)'s remaining to your 80 SD(P)'s the RoH is so badly screwed its not even funny.

Scenario 2: The Alliance had at least 420 SD(P)'s according to the estimates of Naval Intelligence, so throwing 54% of your 620 SD(P)'s against the most heavily defended system in human space and its potential 130 SD(P)'s in Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet still seems like a bad idea because if anything goes wrong and you lose your 54% of your fleet, even if you wipe out all three allied fleets the war is over, they have ~290 SD(P)'s remaining to your 285 SD(P)'s the RoH, this is a little more manageable but not by much, the MA has the technological edge and then numerical edge it's game over.

Scenario 3: The RHN has ~950 SD(P)'s, they send 335 SD(P)'s to attack Manticore and leave ~620 SD(P)'s to protect the rest of the RoH. Of those 620 SD(P)'s ~100 SD(P)'s are being worked up so not fully operational. The remaining 520 SD(P)'s would outnumber the remaining Allied wall if all three allied fleets are wiped out along with the RHN forces assigned to Beatrice. The war is not over, they still have numerical edge even when technological edge is accounted for.


First Scenario I would think is out of desperation, not just an attempt to end the war quicker. The First scenario also makes the Alliance and the RHN approximately equal in numbers with the MA technological edge so the MA would be winning the war if the RHN had only 420 SD(P)'s in commission in mid 1921.


Second Scenario has the same problems as the first one, committing too much of your fleet on a do or die mission when you don't have to, anything goes wrong you lose the war. This is a scenario to be used out of desperation rather than picked out from a position of strength.

Third Scenario is, to me the most likely, the RHN sends enough force to be able to overwhelm Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet. It is strong enough that if something goes wrong it can most likely extract itself from the problem with sufficient remaining forces. But even if it is a total loss the RHN is still capable of continuing the war because they still have 65%+ of their SD(P)'s. They will still have a powerfull Capital Fleet, Bolthole Picket the most important systems in the RoH would also have a picket of modern wallers protecting them while still being able to maintain sufficient offensive forces to keep the alliance on their toes.

kzt wrote:
No, the only way you build the kind of force that has the capability to do that kind of damage is to take risks. The RHN deployed 50% of their total fleet, with the hope that they would win outright, or failing that - do so much damage to manticore that they are unable to take advantage of the RHN relative weakness before their new construction comes on line. But if it goes seriously wrong Haven can also lose the entire war in an afternoon and they are well aware of that.

They are attacking 3 allied fleets, there are still ~290 allied SD(P)'s by Havenite Naval Intelligence count in systems other than Manticore and Trevor's Star. In this scenario the MA at the collapse of the peace talks with ~420 SD(P)'s and the RHN started with 415 SD(P)'s which kind of makes me wonder what the Alliance is worried about if they outnumber the RHN.

They got away with it becuause they are on the offensive and have forced the RMN into a strategic and operational defensive strategy. Even 8th fleet hadn't done anything for months. The RMN had totally surrendered the initiative.

And risking the war helps with? Sending a do-or-die attack is a move of desperation, not a move from someone who is winning the war.

This, by the way, is why good unit leaders patrol outside their bases. The enemy is always up to something, and if you let them show you their clever plan at a time and date of their choosing it's quite a bit more likely to work out for them than if you force them to react.

That's why good senior officers who are fighting a war and winning said war don't throw the dice on a do or die mission for shits and giggles, risking the war just to maybe speed it up a little is a terrible idea, going all out when they are losing(post-Battle of Lovat) makes sense. If both the Allied Fleets(Home Fleet, 3rd,8th) and the RHN(2nd, 5th) fleets are destroyed, in one scenario the RHN has 80 SD(P)'s in the second, 285 SD(P)'s and in the 3rd 620 SD(P)'s. The RMN on the other hand would have ~290 SD(P)'s in all 3 scenarios, so if the 5 fleets destroy each other, the allies would be able to retaliate without waiting for new construction, most of which incidentally would be coming out of the yards mid 1921 in the first and second scenario but not the third.

The RHN went for it for exactly the reason that Theisman explained.

"Maybe it was. But the way we got here doesn't change where we are, or the options we've got. So, if we can't negotiate, and we can't surrender, what can we do except launch Beatrice? It's an 'all-costs' situation, Eloise, and thanks to your preliminary authorization and the forward redeployments we've already carried out, we can launch it far sooner than the Manties probably expect any response to this. And Beatrice Bravo was specifically designed to take out Eighth Fleet, as well. If we manage that, we knock out the only force we know is equipped with the new missiles, but even that's pretty much beside the point if the main op succeeds. That's really what it comes down to, now. If we wait, we lose; if we attack and I'm wrong about their deployment status, we lose; but if we attack and I'm right, we'll almost certainly win. It's that simple."
He looked into her eyes once again, still holding her hand.
"So which way do we go, Madam President?"

And Theisman is well aware of forces uutside of Manticore

At All Costs, Ch. 54 wrote:"Even in the best-case scenario," he said soberly, "our losses will be heavy—very hevy. Don't think they won't. We'll be hitting very hard, well-prepared defenses—probably the toughest in the explored galaxy, at the moment—manned by highly motivated people, and they'll still have the technological advantage, even though we've narrowed it. Not only that, but we don't estimate we'll be able to hold the system against counterattack, even after we win. Certainly not indefinitely.

[...]

"If he's able to inflict heavy damage on their infrastructure, Beatrice might not prove immediately fatal to the Manties, but the long term effects on the strategic balance would be clearly decisive. Without the Manticoran yards, their Alliance can't possibly match our construction ability, and they'll know it. Which means they'll have no choice but to surrender.

"If he's able to engage Third Fleet and Eighth Fleet in detail, after already trashing Home Fleet, he'll probably be able to completely destroy or cripple just under half the total modern Manty wall of battle and then take out the infrastructure. In that case, Beatrice would definitely be immediately decisive."

(bold emphasis mine)

Theisman knows that he can't hold the system against a counterattack by whatever forces are outside of Manticore at the time. He'd like to engage Third and Eighth Fleets in detail, but the main objective is the yards, then scoot. The RHN forces remaining are comparable to the MA forces remaining, but the construction ability wouldn't be. We also know that at this time the Python Lump hasn't left the Manticoran yards, so catching them there is definitely crippling.

And your worry about what's left is also in the book, just a few paragraphs later, which is where the number of 620 comes from. He's retaining sufficient forces to parry Eighth Fleet, if they've sortied and don't participate in the Battle of Manticore, and Andermani units that they can't account for.

And he actually doesn't think he's going to lose everything:

At All Costs wrote:"Second, the force we're committing ought to be enough to do the job, and it's going to be the biggest fleet of superdreadnoughts evere committed to action in a single battle by anyone, including the Solarian League. Even under a worst-case scenario, it should be more than powerful enough to beat an organized retreat with minimum losses. I realize Murphy's still ikely to put in an appearance, but there would have to be some truly radical shift in the basic parameters for the Manties to seriously threaten its ability to look after itself.

(bold emphasis mine again)

So he expects very heavy losses, but not to lose everything. So say "very heavy losses" is two thirds: that means 112 wallers are able to leave. That adds to the 620-336=284 modern wallers not committed to the operation and another 300 older ones, against at best Eighth Fleet, some 100 IAN wallers not part of Home and Eighth Fleets and another 100 maybe from the GSN. That's numerically inferior in modern wallers and they need to defend three home systems. As we've seen happen, Eighth Fleet became Home Fleet and couldn't sortie to attack.

What he didn't count on was to get only 17 SD(P)s back and not destroy the Manticoran shipyards.

Sigs wrote:Scenario 3: The RHN has ~950 SD(P)'s, they send 335 SD(P)'s to attack Manticore and leave ~620 SD(P)'s to protect the rest of the RoH. Of those 620 SD(P)'s ~100 SD(P)'s are being worked up so not fully operational. The remaining 520 SD(P)'s would outnumber the remaining Allied wall if all three allied fleets are wiped out along with the RHN forces assigned to Beatrice. The war is not over, they still have numerical edge even when technological edge is accounted for.


*** snip ***

Third Scenario is, to me the most likely, the RHN sends enough force to be able to overwhelm Home Fleet, 3rd Fleet and 8th Fleet. It is strong enough that if something goes wrong it can most likely extract itself from the problem with sufficient remaining forces. But even if it is a total loss the RHN is still capable of continuing the war because they still have 65%+ of their SD(P)'s. They will still have a powerfull Capital Fleet, Bolthole Picket the most important systems in the RoH would also have a picket of modern wallers protecting them while still being able to maintain sufficient offensive forces to keep the alliance on their toes.

Lovat showed that Haven could NOT win against Manticore's new technological advantage. So all those SD's you saved by not sending then on Beatrice are only going to supply target practice when Apollo is adopted across the RMN. The Battle of Manticore was Haven's only chance to win, by delivering a decisive stroke while Apollo was still in limited use, If Honor's fleet had been unavailable then Haven wins.

Yup. Their remaining SD(p) forces were limited. The RH president asked why they were not sending more forces and it basically was that they really couldn’t. A significant fraction were working up and hence unavailable and they had to maintain a certain amount to secure Bolthole and a few other absolutely critical sites against another raid.

tlb wrote:Lovat showed that Haven could NOT win against Manticore's new technological advantage. So all those SD's you saved by not sending then on Beatrice are only going to supply target practice when Apollo is adopted across the RMN. The Battle of Manticore was Haven's only chance to win, by delivering a decisive stroke while Apollo was still in limited use, If Honor's fleet had been unavailable then Haven wins.

When they started moving their ships forward for Beatrice they were under the parameters that they are numerically superior with the MA having an edge technologically. They went ahead and set up their entire operation. By the time Lovat happened they had already assembled most of the forces for Beatrice so it was a matter of switching out the command staff(Giscard is dead so Tourville is in Command). There was a total of 70 days from Battle of Lovat to Battle of Manticore, they went with the original plan because they had the forces already assembled at the front and were drilled and ready to operate, they executed Beatrice with what they had on hand so that they don't waste more time, the longer they gathered their fleet to execute Beatrice the longer it was that the MA had to introduce their new technology into the fleet, so I think it would be better to go with less right now, than go with double the fleet in a month or two when maybe Home Fleet would have 20-30 SD(P)'s outfitted with the new tech.

They had 300+ SD(P)'s concentrated in one fleet read to go, waiting for orders to make their way to various systems, then waiting for those systems to send their fleets to the forward staging area, then waiting for those ships to be put through some drills to improve their cohesion within the fleet, after all this would have to be the biggest single fleet anyone has ever send to was as one. This would all take time, and we know that the MA was actively scouting dozens of systems, so when they figure out that all of them are stripped of SD(P)'s, they can scout a lot of systems in the Republic a hell of a lot faster than the Republic can get to Manticore which means they can heavily reinforce Manticore because after all, which system would you attack if you had to end the war quickly?

kzt wrote:Yup. Their remaining SD(p) forces were limited. The RH president asked why they were not sending more forces and it basically was that they really couldn’t. A significant fraction were working up and hence unavailable and they had to maintain a certain amount to secure Bolthole and a few other absolutely critical sites against another raid.

They were limited because the RHN didn't want to expose their systems unnecessarily and they went with that plan after Lovat because everything was in place and all they had to do was execute. The RHN didn't want to wait for the MA to deploy more of their SD(P)'s with Apollo and Keyhole, if they had waited an extra couple of months to gather forces the MA would have been able to deploy a hell of a lot more Apollo and Keyhole units making it that much harder on the RHN and with all the scouting that the Alliance was doing in the Republic someone is bound to figure out where they were going I mean there wouldn't be that many targets you would need a 400+ SD(P)'s to crack.