How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:We know that they wanted to use the Lenny Dets for this and they weren't available. If they had been, they would have launched Oyster Bay on all targets at the time they did launch OB. What was the rationale? How does that lead to their goals?

You have a lot of deadly ships that get attritted down and have no ammo reserves facing a huge number of potential foes. You'll start strong, and burn out.

Basically it looks to me that David got bored with caring about the fact that he blew up the entire RMN spare parts and maintenance infrastructure, so nobody in the RMN cared either. Hence nobody worried about anything.

Weber has been somewhat inconsistent about the spare parts inventory and production capacity. He left a lot of secondary support bases and repair ships intact. Weber also made it clear that the RMN intended to delay utilizing Apollo until they had built up a reserve of missiles and converted enough SD(P)s to use them. The "battles" in the early books after Oyster Bay suggest a lack of concern about ammo supply. By UNCOMPROMISING HONOR, the RMN has developed an awareness of the problem. This encouraged the defensive posture.

I believe that the MALIGN always understood that whoever won the Haven Quadrant war would own the MWJ. Control of the junction gives the Victor easy access to the Beawulf terminus which is a short hope from Sol system. The victor would open the war in the SL by attacking Sol, defeating the 300+ active SDs in the system, destroying the reserve, and trashing the infrastructure. At this point it becomes an even struggle.

Not sure what the compleat list of the original of what was cobbled together as Oyster Bay was supposed to hit. Whatever it was, it was going to be a lot more than Manticore, Grayson and Haven. You have really big Spider Drive warships launching Graser Torpedos and various ballistic ordence packages and the capability of the LDs to do at least some of the tactical recon for their strikes- though it seems reasonable that they would be producing more Ghosts to go with the LDs and do some really stealthy deep recon on the targets.

I suspect that some of the SL Core Worlds might be on that target list, including Beowulf.
Why? Because if you strike at targets of all the people you want to both damage and engage (and who are probably not actualy talking to one another at the moment) what better way to throw gasoline on the fire than to hit high visibility and signicant manufactiong capasity in the SL at the same time as you are trying to damage the people who have the best chance of beating them. Like providing responces for EE violations under cover of retaliation for "those dam Neobarbs" attacing a Core World. In the mix you get to cripple some of the SLN's capasity and make sure it's the new stuff.

Once you get all parties flailing around with retaliations and recriminations and ramping up propaganda mills, your looking at fanning the flames not calming things down. Invisable Starships or somebody dropping off waves of missles from outside the hyperlimit to come in ballistic and shread your infrastructure without warning (or ability to activate any defence) and, of course, deliberatly count on parts of all that infrastructure dropping like bombs on your planitary surfaces. Classic Alignment.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I don't see the Peeps taking over Matapan and even Midgard, since those systems would be a net negative contribution to the PRH economy. But that's not important to the question.

To me they are important because of the terminals they control, with those terminals the Republic can conquer a hell of a lot of systems to quench its appetite. I don’t think the MA would be concerned with how many verge systems the PRH captures because they count to give them strength but they don’t equal to core worlds.

Is then both of your answers that the long-term Detweiler Plan, by sponsoring and pushing the DuQuesne Plan, was to grow the PRH to encompass the entirety of the Haven Sector and some surrounding systems, to the point where its size would be within one order of magnitude the SL and with a military proportionately bigger?

The stronger the Republic gets, the easier it is to find an ignition to start a war between the SL and the republic and even better to cause the reaction within the SL to facilitate a collapse of the League. If the Republic gets too strong for the SL and is at risk of just rolling over the SLN and winning the war quickly because of naval size or technology the MA has LD’s to even the odds. Send a squadron or two of LD’s to the biggest PN fleet concentration crush that fleet, another squadron or two will hit their major industrial center(s) and the odds are even.

Sorry, you lost me here. OB destroys the SKM's morale and industry, the RHN comes in and crushes them. Then the SKM lashes out? How, if the RHN has crushed them? If it's few units, why would the SLN despair?

I worded it badly, either they destroy the moral of the SKM along with their industry allowing for the RoH to sail in and force them to surrender thus bringing the RoH back into war with the SL or the RMN lashes out at the SL, destroys a large chunk of the SLN and is subsequently overrun by the RHN because they quickly burn through their ammunition. Problem is there was a third option, the SEM views the RoH as their biggest imediate threat and goes in to crush their industry and navy, thus allowing the SLN to win against a weakened RMN with little to no ammunition left over.

After OB, when the RoH president was in Manticore she told the queen that some members of her cabinet were for an attack on Manticore because they believed they had the upper hand after OB, problem is they didn’t. I believe the MA’s intention was to entice the RoH to attack, unfortunately they would have ran up against Home Fleet and 8th Fleet at which point the RHN would have been crushed in 2nd battle of Manticore and the RMN would be dangerously low on ammunition if not outright out of ammunition. So the SLN sails in and is crushed but wave two takes over because the RMN is reduced to fighting with energy.

The MA wanted Manticore in a position where they can face off against one of their enemies but not both which could have backfired for them if the RoH attacked Manticore and was crushed or if the SKM viewed them as the bigger immediate threat and went after them, crushed the RHN and was then overwhelmed by the SLN due to lack of ammunition.

Manticore was so far ahead of the SLN and the RHN that they could have faced off both navies without much problem if their industry was intact and once the SL started to fall apart they would have been a massive threat to the MA’s plans since many core and shell worlds would flock to them for protection so they would be in direct competition with the RF and much better positioned to provide the protection those systems will crave. If at the end of the war, the RMN is destroyed, the SKM is conquered the SLN is crushed and the SL is collapsing and the RHN is weakened to the point where they would have to focus on rebuilding their nation rather than compete with the RF that would be the best option for the MA since they can deal with the RoH at a later date.

Those numbers are too high. That would mean the RHN had nearly 1000 SD(P)s in active service. I would accept 620 total, with 350 participating in Beatrice. My numbers were of 400-460 SD(P)s total and BoM destroying two thirds of the 350 that were sent in.

At All costs Chapter Ch. 54

“You said we’d commit almost three hundred and fifty of the wall,” she said, finally. “What does that leave us if things go wrong?”
“We’ll have a total of 620 SD(P)’s in commission at that point,” Theisman said, “There will be another 300 or so older superdreadnaughts to support them, although at that point we will be decomisioning the older ships to provide crews for the new construction”…

The rest is reasons why they didn’t bring more ships to the battle:
1) 100 SD(P)’s would be working up and not up to the task of fighting a battle.
2) The force has to be enough to fight through Home Fleet and potentially 3rd and 8th as well. And at worst case scenario they should have enough ships in the attacking fleet to make a retreat from Manticore if things turn badly.
3) They cant be sure where 8th Fleet is located, so as such they have to protect their secure rear area’s like Haven and Bolthole
4) They are worried about the missing IAN ships, they have accounted for only a fraction of them.

This discussion can be interpreted to mean that the RHN has 620 SD(P)’s at that point counting the 350 SD(P)’s going to Manticore or that they are sending 350 SD(P)’s to Manticore and there would be 620 SD(P)’s in total remaining.

My reasoning is as to why its 350 SD(P)’s for Beatrice and 620 SD(P)’s Remaining is because the RHN started the war with 318 SD(P)’s. It takes them roughly 6 months longer to build and commission an SD(P) when compared to the 18-20 months it take the RMN. So if they announced their new fleet in early 1919 and laid down SD(P)’s in the rest of the republic within a months of the announcement which would represent similar or larger number than Bolthole and at the same time they would have ~300 SD(P)’s under construction in Bolthole. So by BoM in mid 1921 they should have at least more 300 SD(P)’s in service from Bolthole Alone, and another 300+ SD(P)’s from the rest of the republic. So It is not unreasonable for the RHN to have close to 1,000 SD(P)’s of their own in 1921. Most of the new ships from the open republic yards would have entered service within the previous 3-6 months before BoM but the Bolthole ships would have been in service since late 1920. So likely they would have 970 SD(P)’s in service and another 600 SD(P)’s under construction. But we don’t know if they had the financial abilities to operate or even finish the second batch of SD(P)’s that they laid down in 1920/1921.

Sigs wrote:

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
I don't see the Peeps taking over Matapan and even Midgard, since those systems would be a net negative contribution to the PRH economy. But that's not important to the question.

To me they are important because of the terminals they control, with those terminals the Republic can conquer a hell of a lot of systems to quench its appetite. I don’t think the MA would be concerned with how many verge systems the PRH captures because they count to give them strength but they don’t equal to core worlds.

Is then both of your answers that the long-term Detweiler Plan, by sponsoring and pushing the DuQuesne Plan, was to grow the PRH to encompass the entirety of the Haven Sector and some surrounding systems, to the point where its size would be within one order of magnitude the SL and with a military proportionately bigger?

The stronger the Republic gets, the easier it is to find an ignition to start a war between the SL and the republic and even better to cause the reaction within the SL to facilitate a collapse of the League. If the Republic gets too strong for the SL and is at risk of just rolling over the SLN and winning the war quickly because of naval size or technology the MA has LD’s to even the odds. Send a squadron or two of LD’s to the biggest PN fleet concentration crush that fleet, another squadron or two will hit their major industrial center(s) and the odds are even.

Sorry, you lost me here. OB destroys the SKM's morale and industry, the RHN comes in and crushes them. Then the SKM lashes out? How, if the RHN has crushed them? If it's few units, why would the SLN despair?

I worded it badly, either they destroy the moral of the SKM along with their industry allowing for the RoH to sail in and force them to surrender thus bringing the RoH back into war with the SL or the RMN lashes out at the SL, destroys a large chunk of the SLN and is subsequently overrun by the RHN because they quickly burn through their ammunition. Problem is there was a third option, the SEM views the RoH as their biggest imediate threat and goes in to crush their industry and navy, thus allowing the SLN to win against a weakened RMN with little to no ammunition left over.

After OB, when the RoH president was in Manticore she told the queen that some members of her cabinet were for an attack on Manticore because they believed they had the upper hand after OB, problem is they didn’t. I believe the MA’s intention was to entice the RoH to attack, unfortunately they would have ran up against Home Fleet and 8th Fleet at which point the RHN would have been crushed in 2nd battle of Manticore and the RMN would be dangerously low on ammunition if not outright out of ammunition. So the SLN sails in and is crushed but wave two takes over because the RMN is reduced to fighting with energy.

The MA wanted Manticore in a position where they can face off against one of their enemies but not both which could have backfired for them if the RoH attacked Manticore and was crushed or if the SKM viewed them as the bigger immediate threat and went after them, crushed the RHN and was then overwhelmed by the SLN due to lack of ammunition.

Manticore was so far ahead of the SLN and the RHN that they could have faced off both navies without much problem if their industry was intact and once the SL started to fall apart they would have been a massive threat to the MA’s plans since many core and shell worlds would flock to them for protection so they would be in direct competition with the RF and much better positioned to provide the protection those systems will crave. If at the end of the war, the RMN is destroyed, the SKM is conquered the SLN is crushed and the SL is collapsing and the RHN is weakened to the point where they would have to focus on rebuilding their nation rather than compete with the RF that would be the best option for the MA since they can deal with the RoH at a later date.

Those numbers are too high. That would mean the RHN had nearly 1000 SD(P)s in active service. I would accept 620 total, with 350 participating in Beatrice. My numbers were of 400-460 SD(P)s total and BoM destroying two thirds of the 350 that were sent in.

At All costs Chapter Ch. 54

“You said we’d commit almost three hundred and fifty of the wall,” she said, finally. “What does that leave us if things go wrong?”
“We’ll have a total of 620 SD(P)’s in commission at that point,” Theisman said, “There will be another 300 or so older superdreadnaughts to support them, although at that point we will be decomisioning the older ships to provide crews for the new construction”…

The rest is reasons why they didn’t bring more ships to the battle:
1) 100 SD(P)’s would be working up and not up to the task of fighting a battle.
2) The force has to be enough to fight through Home Fleet and potentially 3rd and 8th as well. And at worst case scenario they should have enough ships in the attacking fleet to make a retreat from Manticore if things turn badly.
3) They cant be sure where 8th Fleet is located, so as such they have to protect their secure rear area’s like Haven and Bolthole
4) They are worried about the missing IAN ships, they have accounted for only a fraction of them.

This discussion can be interpreted to mean that the RHN has 620 SD(P)’s at that point counting the 350 SD(P)’s going to Manticore or that they are sending 350 SD(P)’s to Manticore and there would be 620 SD(P)’s in total remaining.

My reasoning is as to why its 350 SD(P)’s for Beatrice and 620 SD(P)’s Remaining is because the RHN started the war with 318 SD(P)’s. It takes them roughly 6 months longer to build and commission an SD(P) when compared to the 18-20 months it take the RMN. So if they announced their new fleet in early 1919 and laid down SD(P)’s in the rest of the republic within a months of the announcement which would represent similar or larger number than Bolthole and at the same time they would have ~300 SD(P)’s under construction in Bolthole. So by BoM in mid 1921 they should have at least more 300 SD(P)’s in service from Bolthole Alone, and another 300+ SD(P)’s from the rest of the republic. So It is not unreasonable for the RHN to have close to 1,000 SD(P)’s of their own in 1921. Most of the new ships from the open republic yards would have entered service within the previous 3-6 months before BoM but the Bolthole ships would have been in service since late 1920. So likely they would have 970 SD(P)’s in service and another 600 SD(P)’s under construction. But we don’t know if they had the financial abilities to operate or even finish the second batch of SD(P)’s that they laid down in 1920/1921.

David said at the time that there were 80 more active SD(p)s in the RHN beyond the Beatrice force. Another 6-700 were in the pipeline, but the original 2 surges out of Bolthole had completed; all of Haven's shipyards were now constructing SD(p)s which took 36-48 months to build, depending on the yard tech. The 6-700 would be completing in the 2 years after Beatrice.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:That was exactly the point of my question: the MAlign planned to use the LDs. Are you suggesting that the original purpose they were designed for was to hit Solarian shipyards too? That would allow the RF to become the surviving force in all that chaos. But this means the original Oyster Bay wasn't meant to make the war easier for the SLN, but would happen close to the end (likely causing the end of the war). Do you agree?

They build the LD's because they would give them the ability to prolong the war if need be, they can hit whoever is winning and simultaneously they can strike at SL systems to make it look like the SLN is commiting atrocities against the RoH and the SL members.

My question was what the LDs were originally intended for, before Oyster Bay was rushed.

Exactly what the Shark-Class ended up being used for, just had to adjust the target. They would have been used against the SL or the Republic depending on who presented the bigger threat at the moment.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
If I understand you, up to the discovery of the Lynx Terminus, the MAlign was willing to let the MA and RoH fight and whoever wins, wins. They'd get to consolidate their wins, adopt the opponent's technology, then rebuild. At a later date, they spark a conflict with the League. With the technology, the Haven Sector navy(ies) have the upper hand for most of the war, forcing the SLN to commit the atrocities that they did commit.

And then, at the worst possible moment, Oyster Bay happens and destroys the Haven Sector's ability to fight. The SLN then totally destroys the weakened Haven Sector, with an even worse atrocity, which then shakes it apart.

Whoever won in the Second Manticore-Haven War would have access to all the sector's shipyards. That's why the MAlign needed the LDs: there were too many targets for the Ghost/Shark operation.

Is that your thinking?

You are thinking to far in advance. The original plan was the PRN rolling over a 25 Waller RMN, then King Roger and Elizabeth throw a wrench into the works and build the RMN into a foil for the PRN. The MAlign's plans go off the tracks, but are dlowly being guided into place until Lynx, as you mentioned. This forced the plans to speed up, and everything got 1/2 assed. Manticore was thrust into the role of the SL's foe, then Gelded by OB at the moment it was poised to take on the RHN and the SLN. The SLN should have become embroiled in the Havenite war, with the RMN bring crushed in the process.

But this was rushed. The RHN didn't act like it should. The plan was going off the rails, and instead of slowing things down, the MAlign doubled down.

Theemile wrote:
David said at the time that there were 80 more active SD(p)s in the RHN beyond the Beatrice force. Another 6-700 were in the pipeline, but the original 2 surges out of Bolthole had completed; all of Haven's shipyards were now constructing SD(p)s which took 36-48 months to build, depending on the yard tech. The 6-700 would be completing in the 2 years after Beatrice.

According to At All costs in chapter 7 ONI estimates that there are 400-450 SD(P)'s under construction in Bolthole as of early 1920 and another 400 SD(P)'s under construction in Haven system and 2-3 other major yards.

Bolthole would have laid down the new construction immediately after completing the ships in their slips which would have been late 1918-early 1919 and with the stockpiled parts they would have those ships coming online sometime early to mid 1921.

It makes no sense that between mid 1915 and late 1918 ~3 years the RoH can design AND build 318 SD(P)'s from scratch but they wont be able to build 300 SD(P)'s in the following 36 months? And at the same time the rest of the republic did not produce a single SD(P)?

I mean the book is clear on the 620 SD(P)'s, they are not clear on whether its 620 SD(P)'s total or 620 SD(P)'s left. Either the Author is wrong where he says there are only 80 SD(P)'s left outside of the Beatrice Force, or the Author is wrong in the book... or we can assume that the Secretary of War for the RoH doesn't know that he has only 430 SD(P)'s and not at least 620 SD(P)'s in service.

Theemile wrote:You are thinking to far in advance. The original plan was the PRN rolling over a 25 Waller RMN, then King Roger and Elizabeth throw a wrench into the works and build the RMN into a foil for the PRN. The MAlign's plans go off the tracks, but are dlowly being guided into place until Lynx, as you mentioned. This forced the plans to speed up, and everything got 1/2 assed. Manticore was thrust into the role of the SL's foe, then Gelded by OB at the moment it was poised to take on the RHN and the SLN. The SLN should have become embroiled in the Havenite war, with the RMN bring crushed in the process.

But this was rushed. The RHN didn't act like it should. The plan was going off the rails, and instead of slowing things down, the MAlign doubled down.

I'm asking the questions in two different phases: before and after Buttercup. Before Buttercup and especially before King Roger's buildup, the PRH was expected to win against Manticore. But how does that lead to it effectively fighting the SL for long enough for the atrocities to happen and cause the League to shatter? IIUC, the conclusion would be that PRH would be a quarter the size of the SL and the PN would be about half the size of the active SLN BF. That would allow it to fight the SLN until the Reserve came online, at which point atrocities would happen.

The second phase is after Buttercup, but before the Lynx Terminus is discovered and rushed things. Did this change the previous plan? Is your answer that the Plan went off the tracks, but the MAlign adjusted slightly and started guiding them back into the rails: with maybe just a few adjustments that the technology would allow a much smaller opponent to fight the League, not needing someone with 1000 SDs.

Plus, at some point in this period, the design for the LDs is done and the MAlign starts the technological ladder to get there. What were they intended for? Are you saying that at this point they were already doing things half-assed? If so, that would imply the LD design itself was done for a not-thoroughly-thought-out purpose!

Theemile wrote:
David said at the time that there were 80 more active SD(p)s in the RHN beyond the Beatrice force. Another 6-700 were in the pipeline, but the original 2 surges out of Bolthole had completed; all of Haven's shipyards were now constructing SD(p)s which took 36-48 months to build, depending on the yard tech. The 6-700 would be completing in the 2 years after Beatrice.

Also if you look "At all cost" you will see that they planned Beatrice before Lovat but after the failure of the summit. There is no way they can justify pulling 80%+ of their wall from their systems for an operation or even 54% of their fleet if the total was 620 SD(P)'s. After Lovat they may have been willing to go all out, but before they still would have had to protect their important systems as well as Haven and Bolthole even if they were sure no one knew where it was.