Idle Questions 2

Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

2) What if Grayson decided to intervene in the Havenite Civil War on behalf of the restored Republic of Haven in exchange for concluding a separate peace with Haven? Undoubtedly, the Civil War would have ended sooner with the StateSec hold outs not being able to withstand their SD(P)s and MDMs.

Opinions?

Interesting question! I'll limit my thoughts to just #1 as that answer makes #2 moot:
--snipping--

CaptainPerseus wrote:Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

My thoughts are "probably not", because the CLACs we've been told about by Ashes of Victory are presumably all RMN at this point in time, and probably the MDM- missile supply as well.

Plus the Manticoran command team... and all of 8th Fleet goes home. Grayson would be fighting alone, but realistically tge GSN is the only ally that matters anyway. So to continue, Benjamin has to break the Alliance [improbable], and send his SD(P)s the long way around (no using the Junction and Trevor's Star). Let's assume that to defeat Haven, they still need -- following AAC's lead -- to punch out Lovat and Jouett before moving on Capitol Fleet. That probably adds too much time and invites an "At All Costs" attack on Grayson/Yeltsin by 12th Fleet.

I don't think they have sufficient time nor missile supply to pull it off alone. That said, let's see what the other tactical types on the forum have to say.

CaptainPerseus wrote:Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

2) What if Grayson decided to intervene in the Havenite Civil War on behalf of the restored Republic of Haven in exchange for concluding a separate peace with Haven? Undoubtedly, the Civil War would have ended sooner with the StateSec hold outs not being able to withstand their SD(P)s and MDMs.

Opinions?

1) Basically, it is only Grayson that is of any consequence among the allies (this is long before the Anderman Empire joined). Is Grayson still counting on many loaner officers from Manticore? Because none of them would be allowed to participate in continuing hostilities.

2) There was no way of knowing that the restored Republic would be any better than the Peoples Republic. Also the expectation was that a peace treaty would result from the ongoing negotiations. What rational person would believe that High Ridge not not want to end the conflict that allowed them to avoid a new election? Grayson was a better ally than High Ridge deserved.

They would still have treaty permission to use the Trevor Star junction, just as they did in the book against the wishes of the Mantie officer.

As good as they had become over the course of the 1st Havenite War, Grayson still has a relativly small navy and on it's own not going to be able to take on Haven on it's own. Too many opposing ships, too many places that they are and they would be inviting defeat in detail no matter where they struck any concentration of Haven warships larger than CAs.
Of course that doesn't address the idea that Haven could launch a strike against the Grayson system- which Manticore might or might not repond to after the fact give that it was High Ridge in charge and there would be serious question about Grayson acting outside of the (I expect) the primarily DEFENSIVE treaty arrangements between Grayson and Manticore- again with High Ridge and his government in charge.

Grayson takes a run at Haven and doesn't take military control of the system's orbitals right away - having had to beat their way past the Havenite Home Fleet to do that- and then Haven sends a fleet to take Grayson. No, that doesn't sound like a promising. Benjamin isn't going to do that, particularly after it gets to the point where it becomes obvious that High Ridge is not going to cooperate with Grayson on much of anything.

SharkHunter wrote:Interesting question! I'll limit my thoughts to just #1 as that answer makes #2 moot:
--snipping--

CaptainPerseus wrote:Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

My thoughts are "probably not", because the CLACs we've been told about by Ashes of Victory are presumably all RMN at this point in time, and probably the MDM- missile supply as well.

Plus the Manticoran command team... and all of 8th Fleet goes home. Grayson would be fighting alone, but realistically tge GSN is the only ally that matters anyway. So to continue, Benjamin has to break the Alliance [improbable], and send his SD(P)s the long way around (no using the Junction and Trevor's Star). Let's assume that to defeat Haven, they still need -- following AAC's lead -- to punch out Lovat and Jouett before moving on Capitol Fleet. That probably adds too much time and invites an "At All Costs" attack on Grayson/Yeltsin by 12th Fleet.

I don't think they have sufficient time nor missile supply to pull it off alone. That said, let's see what the other tactical types on the forum have to say.

The Graysons completed the "GSN Honor Harrington" at least a year before any RMN podnaughts, with 40 internal Mk 41 MDM missile launchers. This was the 1st operational warship to mount MDMs (The Minotaur was essentially first, but it was an experimental test platform, not initially a main line warship)

Chances are Grayson had a full up MDM line at full capacity well before Manticore did - they needed them first.

Grayson's first 6 CLACs were Minotaurs (Bringing the class total up to 24.), and were probably dispersed over the build of Manticore's 18. All of these were launched prior to Scotty getting the CLAC-19 Hydra at the beginning of AoV.

CaptainPerseus wrote:Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

2) What if Grayson decided to intervene in the Havenite Civil War on behalf of the restored Republic of Haven in exchange for concluding a separate peace with Haven? Undoubtedly, the Civil War would have ended sooner with the StateSec hold outs not being able to withstand their SD(P)s and MDMs.

Opinions?

1) Grayson was the only other nation with Podnaughts, CLACS or MDMs at the time of the cease fire.

Erewhon had a dozen SL built Dreadnaughts in the mix (probably SLN Vegas, except Erewhon was calling a spade a spade.) To get the dozen Erewhonese ships in 8th fleet, Manticore had to station somewhere between 4-8 SDS at Erewhonese to bolster system defense. If Manticore calls it a day, they are bring the Erewhon stationed ships home - so Erewhon would pull it's ships from 8th fleet to cover Erewhon, thus (for all intents and purposes) joining in on the ceasefire.

Th 4th Manticorian Alliance Member with SDs in the 1st war is the star nation on Talbot (1 T), where it was mentioned they had a repair station and a SD Production yard. Their ships are never mentioned in text, However, David said that at the beginning of the 2nd war, Haven had persuaded them that High Ridge was causing the troubles and to sit this one out. Which, they were happy to - High Ridge had refused them advanced technology, as had the Cromarty administration before him. So.... no advanced technology, ever, means that they were not building stock SDs for the RMN, and HoS mentions no other "crap import class" of SD in the RMN roles - In other words, they were building them for their own navy, probably in very small numbers. Again, chances are they would pull back for their own defense - Manticore's friendship was already giving tummy issues.

So if they did continue ahead, it would essentially be Grayson alone.

2) Grayson has a long memory - Blackbird, and all 4 Yeltsin battles hang heavy on their minds, not to mention the "Hanging of Honor", and the killing for so many of their senior leadership in the assignation attempt which lead to the cease fire. I doubt if Grayson would trust any side of Haven so soon after all that. If they did get involved - yes they would clean house. But the cost for the Havenite victor would be high....

Theemile wrote:2) Grayson has a long memory - Blackbird, and all 4 Yeltsin battles hang heavy on their minds, not to mention the "Hanging of Honor", and the killing for so many of their senior leadership in the assignation attempt which lead to the cease fire. I doubt if Grayson would trust any side of Haven so soon after all that. If they did get involved - yes they would clean house. But the cost for the Havenite victor would be high....

Indeed. Between the Mesan Alignment, Masada and Haven, I think Grayson holds the record for 'most attacked star system' in known space.

Not perhaps the best title going, but you gotta be famous for something....

tlb wrote:

CaptainPerseus wrote:Started listening to the audio version of The Service of the Sword last night and now I'm wondering about a couple of things:

1) What if Grayson and the other Manticoran allies decided not to honor the High Ridge Government's unilateral cease fire? Could Grayson have led the rest of the Alliance to a military victory in the First Manticoran War with its own SD(P)s?

2) What if Grayson decided to intervene in the Havenite Civil War on behalf of the restored Republic of Haven in exchange for concluding a separate peace with Haven? Undoubtedly, the Civil War would have ended sooner with the StateSec hold outs not being able to withstand their SD(P)s and MDMs.

Opinions?

1) Basically, it is only Grayson that is of any consequence among the allies (this is long before the Anderman Empire joined). Is Grayson still counting on many loaner officers from Manticore? Because none of them would be allowed to participate in continuing hostilities.

2) There was no way of knowing that the restored Republic would be any better than the Peoples Republic. Also the expectation was that a peace treaty would result from the ongoing negotiations. What rational person would believe that High Ridge not not want to end the conflict that allowed them to avoid a new election? Grayson was a better ally than High Ridge deserved.

They would still have treaty permission to use the Trevor Star junction, just as they did in the book against the wishes of the Mantie officer.

I think you have it with the Manticoran officers on loan to the GSN. I don't think the GSN would have had the time to grow their officer and enlisted corp big enough to man all of their own ships at that point. Later, like when the Protector's Own heads off to Silesia maybe, but not when High Ridge stopped the war I think.

I could be wrong tho.

My guess is that Grayson would have been just as happy to let the Peeps crawl off in the corner and bleed. If Haven was ready to stop, Grayson would have let them. It's High Ridge that is stiring the pot. Grayson and Erwhon would not have been able to take on Haven alone unless they could have- in record time and no backup- decided they could be sucessful with a strike at the Haven Home system and take it after destroying what was in the system of Peep naval forces. Again, NO BACKUP and High Ridge had no interest in reopening the way in actual combat.

As far as Grayson deciding to come into the Haven Civil War on the side of the New Republic....naw. Stay the hell out of it and let them kill each other. It's their test, not Graysons. Grayson has enough problems with High Ridge as a nominal ally and treaty partner. Besides, High Ridge would have pulled all of the SEM loaners back out of spite if nothing elce to be sure that Grayson wouldn't have been able to be at full strength and continue to need Manticore support.

Brigade XO wrote:My guess is that Grayson would have been just as happy to let the Peeps crawl off in the corner and bleed. If Haven was ready to stop, Grayson would have let them. It's High Ridge that is stiring the pot. Grayson and Erwhon would not have been able to take on Haven alone unless they could have- in record time and no backup- decided they could be sucessful with a strike at the Haven Home system and take it after destroying what was in the system of Peep naval forces. Again, NO BACKUP and High Ridge had no interest in reopening the way in actual combat.

As far as Grayson deciding to come into the Haven Civil War on the side of the New Republic....naw. Stay the hell out of it and let them kill each other. It's their test, not Graysons. Grayson has enough problems with High Ridge as a nominal ally and treaty partner. Besides, High Ridge would have pulled all of the SEM loaners back out of spite if nothing elce to be sure that Grayson wouldn't have been able to be at full strength and continue to need Manticore support.

As much as Grayson was rightly pissed off that High Ridge unilaterally accepted Saint Just's ceasefire request - I tend to agree that they'd have been willing to sign a reasonable peace treaty with the restored Republic years before the ceasefire historically collapsed.

Now I suspect they'd have been a lot less willing to let Haven go off and bleed while Saint Just was still in power (especially not after the assassination attempt against the Queen and Protector right in their own system). But even without that they're all too aware of the risk of letting an enemy have time to rebuild and come back for another go (see their interminable series of wars with Masada because Grayson lacked the capability to permanently defeat them). After Buttercup the Manticoran Alliance had a massive naval tech advantage - but Haven retained a far higher potential industrial capability. A revanchist Haven under Saint Just would be a very unsafe neighbor. It was only his rapid overthrow that, in my opinion, would have had Grayson considering the possibility of a successful long term peace.