How was Haven supposed to fight the SL (Detweiler Plan)?

In the Alternate History: PRH-Solarian War thread, we seem to have come to a conclusion that the war between the PRH and the SL would only be more or less equitable in a very narrow window of time, between Haven acquiring some technological advances and getting overwhelming technological superiority like Manticore did in the real timeline. A war in more or less equal footing seems logically required by the Detweiler Plan, since any war that had either side quickly and thoroughly defeating the order would give too little opportunity for massacres and atrocities, which would be required to break up the SL.

Question 1: Before the war with Manticore and the technological advances from Project Gram, what were the MAlign planners counting on?

The PRN was just over one third the size of the active SLN Battle Fleet. Were the Detweilers counting on the PRN tripling in size in the next decade, after absorbing Manticore? Why would the Legislaturalists do that? Were they expecting an eventual absorption of the Andermani Empire and Silesia too? That would be a polity with 400 to 450 member systems. Less than a quarter the size of the SL, but with a much bigger navy proportionately because the members were added by way of conquest. And that would put it probably at least around 1930 PD.

Question 2: How did the NAlign planners adjust to the technological advances?

Unlike the SLN, the MAlign was paying close attention to the two wars, so they knew about the technological advances, even if they couldn't duplicate them (they might have even hindered the SLN paying attention in the first place). Since their planners were by no means idiots, it stands to reason that they were adjusting the long-term plans as information became available. Once MDMs and SD(P)s and CLACs made their appearance during Buttercup, what was the plan? As discussed in the other thread, this would allow the winner of the war to quickly overwhelm the SLN, if they put their minds to it.

Maybe the planners didn't realise that? After all, the Manty strategists didn't know how much better than the SLN they were. Were the planners thinking "a-ha, this allows them to fight 3:1, so 700 ships of the wall match the active BF; we can launch our conflict under these conditions."

Except that at this point, the PRN is defeated and the MA has won, but the combined navies of the Alliance did not add up to 700. Were the planners' expectation that the Peeps would come back, equalise the technology and defeat the MA? Or had they already completely adjusted the Detweiler Plan to put the RMN in conflict with the SLN? How did they expect the RMN to hold itself against the SLN that was nearly 10x bigger?

Question 3: How does Oyster Bay figure into this?

The Leonard Detweiler-class monitors were designed for a sneak attack that would include destroying the Havenite shipyards. We know OB was launched early because of the events starting with the Lynx Terminus, Monica, the unveiling of Apollo, and the Battle of Manticore. So what was the non-early plan?

If the Havenite shipyards get blown to dust, how does the RHN fight the SLN? If Haven wins at the Battle of Manticore, they have less than 200 ships of the wall remaining and capture maybe 100 GSN, IAN and RMN ships. That would mean at least 6:1 advantage to equalise, or wait until the RHN shipyards build another 200 wallers for a "mere" 4:1.

Before Apollo, the war was tending towards an RoH victory, but I don't see how it could happen with better numbers than what I've just said. Either way, how does destroying Havenite yards help the MAlign's goals?

ThinksMarkedly wrote:
Question 1: Before the war with Manticore and the technological advances from Project Gram, what were the MAlign planners counting on?

The PRN was just over one third the size of the active SLN Battle Fleet. Were the Detweilers counting on the PRN tripling in size in the next decade, after absorbing Manticore? Why would the Legislaturalists do that? Were they expecting an eventual absorption of the Andermani Empire and Silesia too? That would be a polity with 400 to 450 member systems. Less than a quarter the size of the SL, but with a much bigger navy proportionately because the members were added by way of conquest. And that would put it probably at least around 1930 PD.

Honestly since their entire plan seemed rushed I think the MA's timeline was 1940-1950's. In that case they were hoping for a rather short war between Haven and Manticore, followed by the Republic taking over the rest of the Alliance, the Andermani Empire, Silesia, Asgard, Matapan, Midgard and the Phoenix Cluster. Once Haven captures Asgard, Matapan, Midgard, Phoenix Cluster, Erewhon and Manticore they basicly can beat Frontier Fleet to all of the free verge systems in the area on three sides which means that at some point Frontier Security and the People's Republic would come into contact and/or conflict over the same verge systems, Haven would be painfully aware of this and would try to avoid that but at the same time I imagine they would be building up their fleet to both protect their conquests from internal discontent and from external aggression from the League. With Andermani Empire, Erewhon, Manticore and Silesia, Haven would get a much needed and substantial economic boost but it would also give them a lot of vital real-estate to defend, all the minor MA members and the verge systems that they subsequently capture are just more money for Haven. Basically what FS has Haven can have quicker because of all the WHJ they will end up controlling and more than that with every conquest they will need more troops, more ships and those cost more money so they will need more conquests to keep up the charade. With Frontier Security it is a slow and steady absorption of targets, with Haven it could be capture Asgard and then take every system in the region, Phoenix Cluster same result, discover the Lynx Terminal and Talbott wont have to ask to join they will be invited to join and a few SD squadrons from the PN.

Ultimately Haven can end up with a substantial amount of income in a very short amount of time, threatening the League from Multiple directions and if they figure out how not to screw up the systems they capture and keep them profitable they can become quite a major naval power. In 1940-1950 the SLN could be facing a rival with 1,500 wallers or more who no matter their size the SLN wont take seriously at all. At that point Haven might be ahead of the League technologically because the SLN wont feel the need to advance and the PN might see how far behind it is when it fights the RMN and then the IAN, once captured they may be able to persuade many of their researchers to assist. The League would be facing a major naval power with 75% or more of their numbers and 80-90% of their tonnage who can attack the League from multiple directions, retreat and use the attacking fleet to defend all before the SLN makes it to their capital.

Question 2: How did the NAlign planners adjust to the technological advances?

Unlike the SLN, the MAlign was paying close attention to the two wars, so they knew about the technological advances, even if they couldn't duplicate them (they might have even hindered the SLN paying attention in the first place). Since their planners were by no means idiots, it stands to reason that they were adjusting the long-term plans as information became available. Once MDMs and SD(P)s and CLACs made their appearance during Buttercup, what was the plan? As discussed in the other thread, this would allow the winner of the war to quickly overwhelm the SLN, if they put their minds to it.

I don't think they realized the true power of the RMN weapons or the moral of the SKM, they thought that the SEM suffers OB, and their moral crashes since after all they lose the ability to build new ships, they lost dozens if not hundreds of ships in refit and under construction and all of their ammunition supplies and manufacturing lines. So their belief might be that after suffering such a blow to their economy, industry, military, moral and humanity they will crumble once Haven figures out what happened and ends the war on their terms. Their final goal might have been a war between the SL and RoH, with either the SLN getting smacked down by the RMN and the RHN then knocking out Manticore from the war, or the RHN knocking Manticore out of the war at the outset. At this point the SLN sails into Manticore and the RHN tells them to pound sand while the MA manipulates both sides into a battle and you have the RoH at war with the SL.

Their belief might have been that the RHN was not as advanced as the RMN so they would not destroy the SLN so easily and it would be a long protracted war with the MA committing atrocities in the name of and against both sides to push the war.

Question 3: How does Oyster Bay figure into this?

The Leonard Detweiler-class monitors were designed for a sneak attack that would include destroying the Havenite shipyards. We know OB was launched early because of the events starting with the Lynx Terminus, Monica, the unveiling of Apollo, and the Battle of Manticore. So what was the non-early plan?

I think their plan was to crush the SKM's moral and industry, make them use ammunition against the SLN and the RHN comes in once they see an opportunity and crush them. They planned to use the RMN to hurt the SLN out of desperation because they are low ammunition, then the SLN reacts how they reacted in the books by lashing out against neutrals and their own member systems thereby forcing the collapse of the League and this would leave the RoH consolidating their gains in the verge while the RF builds a new galactic order.

If the Havenite shipyards get blown to dust, how does the RHN fight the SLN? If Haven wins at the Battle of Manticore, they have less than 200 ships of the wall remaining and capture maybe 100 GSN, IAN and RMN ships. That would mean at least 6:1 advantage to equalise, or wait until the RHN shipyards build another 200 wallers for a "mere" 4:1.

During the BoM, the RHN had ~620 SD(P)'s in reserve that they did not send with Tourville, that would have been an overwhelming force no matter what.

Before Apollo, the war was tending towards an RoH victory, but I don't see how it could happen with better numbers than what I've just said. Either way, how does destroying Havenite yards help the MAlign's goals?

It doesn't, their goal was to use the SEM to push the SL into actions that would fracture the League, and then use the RoH to take out the SEM. At that point the RoH is busy consolidating their gains and staying out of the civil war going on in the SL.

I can understand destroying the Haven economy, through the Dole, as a way to force Haven into an expansionist mode. This would force their navy to expand and improve through exercise.

I can understand making the League Navy corrupt, inefficient and ignorant. Taking them at their word, that the SLN was the finest fighting force in all inhabited space; then it was necessary to hobble its fighting ability to make the contest more even.

I think that Oyster Bay was just a nebulous contingency option in the original plan. A century or more prior there is no way to know who should be struck nor with what. A vague notion could exist that a secret attack to eliminate an obstacle might be needed; but they could not know that the Spider Drive could be invented (although their scientists would be working on many schemes) and they would not be sure which side was expected to be too advanced. So after the invention of the spider and as the Manticore - Haven War progressed, they saw that whoever won would be vastly superior to the forces of the League and began to plan specifically to prune that advantage. With the opening of the link to the Talbot Quandrant, they panicked and executed a rushed version of the plan to cripple the RMN; confident that a second attack on Haven would knock then back to a point where the Solarian - Haven War would be long and hard.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:In the Alternate History: PRH-Solarian War thread, we seem to have come to a conclusion that the war between the PRH and the SL would only be more or less equitable in a very narrow window of time, between Haven acquiring some technological advances and getting overwhelming technological superiority like Manticore did in the real timeline. A war in more or less equal footing seems logically required by the Detweiler Plan, since any war that had either side quickly and thoroughly defeating the order would give too little opportunity for massacres and atrocities, which would be required to break up the SL.

Question 1: Before the war with Manticore and the technological advances from Project Gram, what were the MAlign planners counting on?

The PRN was just over one third the size of the active SLN Battle Fleet. Were the Detweilers counting on the PRN tripling in size in the next decade, after absorbing Manticore? Why would the Legislaturalists do that? Were they expecting an eventual absorption of the Andermani Empire and Silesia too? That would be a polity with 400 to 450 member systems. Less than a quarter the size of the SL, but with a much bigger navy proportionately because the members were added by way of conquest. And that would put it probably at least around 1930 PD.

If memory serves, the Prelude of OBS is the PRH leadership discussing their growth needs: The dole economy was unsustainable. So the PRN was following the Dusquesne plan - They NEEDED continue to expand and to get to the rich, but badly managed Silesian worlds to prop up their regime. All the worlds between were all marginal economies that would AT BEST not drain the PRH economy after they were absorbed - with the sole exception of Manticore, which was seen as a fortified cash spewing machine, which was also the main impediment to absorbing Silesia.

So, the Duquesne plan (which in reality was the MAlign plan for the PRH), was for the PRH to slowly grow and take over the entire Havenite quadrant. Silesia was a goal, as was Manticore. Manpower's games in Silesia were just to keep that government barely soluble, but unstable enough that any large foreign power could easily topple it. WAS the Andermani/Manty detante in Silesia part of the MAlign plan? - probably, it would be easy to influence politicians into making such decisions (not obvious treason), and kept the status quo, while siphoning off resources from both powers, and focusing them on each other.

After the absorbtion of the entire Havenite quadrant, the PRH would be a large enough foil to face the SL.

Question 2: How did the NAlign planners adjust to the technological advances?

Unlike the SLN, the MAlign was paying close attention to the two wars, so they knew about the technological advances, even if they couldn't duplicate them (they might have even hindered the SLN paying attention in the first place). Since their planners were by no means idiots, it stands to reason that they were adjusting the long-term plans as information became available. Once MDMs and SD(P)s and CLACs made their appearance during Buttercup, what was the plan? As discussed in the other thread, this would allow the winner of the war to quickly overwhelm the SLN, if they put their minds to it.

Maybe the planners didn't realise that? After all, the Manty strategists didn't know how much better than the SLN they were. Were the planners thinking "a-ha, this allows them to fight 3:1, so 700 ships of the wall match the active BF; we can launch our conflict under these conditions."

Except that at this point, the PRN is defeated and the MA has won, but the combined navies of the Alliance did not add up to 700. Were the planners' expectation that the Peeps would come back, equalise the technology and defeat the MA? Or had they already completely adjusted the Detweiler Plan to put the RMN in conflict with the SLN? How did they expect the RMN to hold itself against the SLN that was nearly 10x bigger?

I don't believe tech factored in. This plan is 450 years old now. PDLCs have replaced grav drivers autocannon, which have replaced emag guns in this period. Counter missiles shrank and got dedicated launchers, ship size grew. Grav plates were invented, removing the need for rotation sections, changing the shape of ships forever. Missiles went from launching using a chem booster stage, to emag launchers, to grav launchers. etc, etc.

The Malign didn't foresee any of this - Manticore's recent tech windfall just made it the replacement for PRH in the grand plans. a
All the MAlign had to do was orchestrate a few incidents and make sure responses happened in a certain way, thanks to people and patterns they had already placed decades ago.

Question 3: How does Oyster Bay figure into this?

The Leonard Detweiler-class monitors were designed for a sneak attack that would include destroying the Havenite shipyards. We know OB was launched early because of the events starting with the Lynx Terminus, Monica, the unveiling of Apollo, and the Battle of Manticore. So what was the non-early plan?

If the Havenite shipyards get blown to dust, how does the RHN fight the SLN? If Haven wins at the Battle of Manticore, they have less than 200 ships of the wall remaining and capture maybe 100 GSN, IAN and RMN ships. That would mean at least 6:1 advantage to equalise, or wait until the RHN shipyards build another 200 wallers for a "mere" 4:1.

Before Apollo, the war was tending towards an RoH victory, but I don't see how it could happen with better numbers than what I've just said. Either way, how does destroying Havenite yards help the MAlign's goals?

As mentioned before, all the MAlign's plans are part of an older plan, that predated the rise of current events. What we are seeing is the older plan reworked for the emerging reality. Change the time schedule, substitute Manticore and Grayson, Create international incident over... there - and run program.

As with the old plan, the Havenite sector force was never intended to win. It was intended to destabilize the existing political cracks in the SL and bring about circumstances that cause it to fall apart. OB was like the picador in the bull ring - weakening the bull at the precise moment necessary so the Matador could defeat it. The SLN follows a course where it is "forced" to commit atrocities in order to win, causing political fallout at a massive scale. Meanwhile the SL falls apart as it's very foundations are shaken (both by barbarians at the gate and political upheaval), the status quo is overturned, international relationships are broken, existing divides are widened, everything is chaos.

This is the important part - NO ONE WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN in the war between the SL and the Haven sector. The SL would have destroyed the Havenite power in the end - but at a cost of it's soul. The war was supposed to create a power vacuum that would allow a new polity - a Detweiler ideals inspired polity - to rise in it's place.

In short - burn them all. Then from the flames comes the Phoenix.

So, in the aftermath the RF is the shining beacon on the hill, offering stability in a time of chaos - smaller systems coalesce around the RF for support and protection. yada yada...

The original concept for Oyster Bay was supposed to be a strike at Haven and it's major yards but probably also at SLN yards and capasity. Remember it was to be with the LD's, not the Sharks and Ghosts.
Two problems (at least two) are that Haven is getting battered by the end of the 1st active part of the way and SEM is now both larger, has rolled out all those new weapons systems and has pulled ahead of Haven. Instead of taking the edge and replacement capasity off of Haven (post takeing Manticore and several other systems) and also possibly hitting Yilden and the Technodyne Yards, the hurried and very short materials Oyster Bay hits only Manticore and Grayson.....BUT......by that time Honor is already effectivly in posession of the Haven home system and is NEGOTIATING a peace. She hasn't obliterated the RHN in the Haven home system-- and that fleet was fully aware that she could do that if she wanted to.
The second is that not only didn't the Alignment have enough ships for use in Oyster Bay to attack ANY of the Haven yards, they understood by this point that Haven had someplace they were building ships on a massive scale that the Alignment and nobody else know the location of.

Slightly out of sequence- Ewrhon alone wasn't going to be able to stop Haven if Manticore was captured. The whole High Ridge problem aside, Erwnon wasn't going to be capable of taking on a Haven post the capture of Manticore, certainly not after Haven absorbed the SKM tech and applied it themselves. Then there is the question of the Andermani. They do have a more significant navy than Erwhon and they are at least as focused on using it to grow the Empire. Haven would have needed a significant pause after taking Manticore - and recovering from it's own losses- before going to eliminating the Andermani to their back before going to take pieces out of the League.

But that's not how it went down. If you from from the point where Haven transitions back to the Republic of Haven, it really isn't looking to continue down the road of conquests to prop up the Dole and the war with Manticore. Without High Ridge causing all the havoc and not concluding an actual treaty, Haven would have shifted to rebuilding itself as The Repubilc and have started sheadding captured systems. Understand that the Peeps had been stripping systems of goods/materials and any cash-flow to support a system that was now gone. It was rebuilding and trying to do it from a sound economic footing, not just looting conquests. At that point they stopped being the blunt insterment envisioned and molded by the Alignment to start ripping pieces out of the League and set off that whole firestorm.

Question 1: Before the war with Manticore and the technological advances from Project Gram, what were the MAlign planners counting on?

Sigs wrote:Honestly since their entire plan seemed rushed I think the MA's timeline was 1940-1950's. In that case they were hoping for a rather short war between Haven and Manticore, followed by the Republic taking over the rest of the Alliance, the Andermani Empire, Silesia, Asgard, Matapan, Midgard and the Phoenix Cluster. Once Haven captures Asgard, Matapan, Midgard, Phoenix Cluster, Erewhon and Manticore they basicly can beat Frontier Fleet to all of the free verge systems in the area on three sides which means that at some point Frontier Security and the People's Republic would come into contact and/or conflict over the same verge systems, Haven would be painfully aware of this and would try to avoid that but at the same time I imagine they would be building up their fleet to both protect their conquests from internal discontent and from external aggression from the League.

I don't see the Peeps taking over Matapan and even Midgard, since those systems would be a net negative contribution to the PRH economy. But that's not important to the question.

Sigs wrote:[...]The League would be facing a major naval power with 75% or more of their numbers and 80-90% of their tonnage who can attack the League from multiple directions, retreat and use the attacking fleet to defend all before the SLN makes it to their capital.

Theemile wrote:After the absorbtion of the entire Havenite quadrant, the PRH would be a large enough foil to face the SL.

Is then both of your answers that the long-term Detweiler Plan, by sponsoring and pushing the DuQuesne Plan, was to grow the PRH to encompass the entirety of the Haven Sector and some surrounding systems, to the point where its size would be within one order of magnitude the SL and with a military proportionately bigger?

At that point, they'd cause a conflict, whether Haven wanted it or not. I don't think they'd go looking for conflict with the OFS and since I don't think Haven would annex Verge-style economies, the OFS wouldn't find conflict with the PRH either. But the MAlign could cause a Monica-style incident, then a Giancola-style diplomatic faux pas, to start the war.

At 1000-1500 SDs, the PRN would easily hold the BF back and make the most first wins. But not forever: once the SLN reactivated the Reserve, they'd start winning. I don't think at this point even the SLN would be that stupid to think a polity of 450 systems is your run-of-the-mill neobarb. The SLN wouldn't go for the capital, but would have to fight a war on near parity. And that gives the MAlign the opportunity to force atrocities that break up the League.

Question 2: How did the NAlign planners adjust to the technological advances?

Sigs wrote:I don't think they realized the true power of the RMN weapons or the moral of the SKM, they thought that the SEM suffers OB, and their moral crashes since after all they lose the ability to build new ships, they lost dozens if not hundreds of ships in refit and under construction and all of their ammunition supplies and manufacturing lines. So their belief might be that after suffering such a blow to their economy, industry, military, moral and humanity they will crumble once Haven figures out what happened and ends the war on their terms.

I'll address the OB part below.

Sigs wrote:Their final goal might have been a war between the SL and RoH, with either the SLN getting smacked down by the RMN and the RHN then knocking out Manticore from the war, or the RHN knocking Manticore out of the war at the outset. At this point the SLN sails into Manticore and the RHN tells them to pound sand while the MA manipulates both sides into a battle and you have the RoH at war with the SL.

Their belief might have been that the RHN was not as advanced as the RMN so they would not destroy the SLN so easily and it would be a long protracted war with the MA committing atrocities in the name of and against both sides to push the war.

Theemile wrote:The Malign didn't foresee any of this - Manticore's recent tech windfall just made it the replacement for PRH in the grand plans. a
All the MAlign had to do was orchestrate a few incidents and make sure responses happened in a certain way, thanks to people and patterns they had already placed decades ago.

The answers here are different.

Theemile is suggesting that after Buttercup, the MAlign planners replaced the PRH in their plans with the SKM, since they had won the war and had the technological edge. That edge would be sufficient to compensate for the numerical inferiority. I don't agree: while MA SD(P)s made mincemeat of anyone else's SDs at Buttercup, that was only SD(P)s that had this edge. Smaller ships could tow pods, but not in sufficient quantity. That means an SD(P) wins any battle, but SLN SDs win when those aren't present. Given the numbers, the SLN would find targets of opportunity and force the MA to disperse the SD(P)s. Defeat in detail.

Sigs is proposing that the RoH remained in the Detweiler Plan and has a very good argument: Oyster Bay. You're saying that they came up with Oyster Bay as an adjustment after Buttercup? That actually makes a lot of sense.

This is probably around the time that the research into the Spider Drive was turning into development and engineering, which is when they designed the progression of Ghosts, Sharks and Leonard Detweiler. The LDs would be used to tip the balance in favour of the Republic of Haven again. Given enough time, the RHN would grow again to 600-800 SD(P)s, with most Manticoran technology, and the MAlign would discover enough of it to leak to the SLN. That fight might be on sufficient parity to cause the atrocities.

Question 3: How does Oyster Bay figure into this?

Sigs wrote:I think their plan was to crush the SKM's moral and industry, make them use ammunition against the SLN and the RHN comes in once they see an opportunity and crush them. They planned to use the RMN to hurt the SLN out of desperation because they are low ammunition, then the SLN reacts how they reacted in the books by lashing out against neutrals and their own member systems thereby forcing the collapse of the League and this would leave the RoH consolidating their gains in the verge while the RF builds a new galactic order.

Sorry, you lost me here. OB destroys the SKM's morale and industry, the RHN comes in and crushes them. Then the SKM lashes out? How, if the RHN has crushed them? If it's few units, why would the SLN despair?

Sigs wrote:During the BoM, the RHN had ~620 SD(P)'s in reserve that they did not send with Tourville, that would have been an overwhelming force no matter what.

Those numbers are too high. That would mean the RHN had nearly 1000 SD(P)s in active service. I would accept 620 total, with 350 participating in Beatrice. My numbers were of 400-460 SD(P)s total and BoM destroying two thirds of the 350 that were sent in.

Sigs wrote:It doesn't, their goal was to use the SEM to push the SL into actions that would fracture the League, and then use the RoH to take out the SEM. At that point the RoH is busy consolidating their gains and staying out of the civil war going on in the SL.

That doesn't lead to a conflict. If the RoH had won at BoM, the conflict with the SL fizzles out. The MAlign needs a new sparkr to

Theemile wrote:As with the old plan, the Havenite sector force was never intended to win. It was intended to destabilize the existing political cracks in the SL and bring about circumstances that cause it to fall apart. OB was like the picador in the bull ring - weakening the bull at the precise moment necessary so the Matador could defeat it. The SLN follows a course where it is "forced" to commit atrocities in order to win, causing political fallout at a massive scale. Meanwhile the SL falls apart as it's very foundations are shaken (both by barbarians at the gate and political upheaval), the status quo is overturned, international relationships are broken, existing divides are widened, everything is chaos.

If I understand you, up to the discovery of the Lynx Terminus, the MAlign was willing to let the MA and RoH fight and whoever wins, wins. They'd get to consolidate their wins, adopt the opponent's technology, then rebuild. At a later date, they spark a conflict with the League. With the technology, the Haven Sector navy(ies) have the upper hand for most of the war, forcing the SLN to commit the atrocities that they did commit.

And then, at the worst possible moment, Oyster Bay happens and destroys the Haven Sector's ability to fight. The SLN then totally destroys the weakened Haven Sector, with an even worse atrocity, which then shakes it apart.

Whoever won in the Second Manticore-Haven War would have access to all the sector's shipyards. That's why the MAlign needed the LDs: there were too many targets for the Ghost/Shark operation.

Is that your thinking?

Brigade XO wrote:The original concept for Oyster Bay was supposed to be a strike at Haven and it's major yards but probably also at SLN yards and capasity. Remember it was to be with the LD's, not the Sharks and Ghosts.

That was exactly the point of my question: the MAlign planned to use the LDs. Are you suggesting that the original purpose they were designed for was to hit Solarian shipyards too? That would allow the RF to become the surviving force in all that chaos. But this means the original Oyster Bay wasn't meant to make the war easier for the SLN, but would happen close to the end (likely causing the end of the war). Do you agree?

Two problems (at least two) are that Haven is getting battered by the end of the 1st active part of the way and SEM is now both larger, has rolled out all those new weapons systems and has pulled ahead of Haven. Instead of taking the edge and replacement capasity off of Haven (post takeing Manticore and several other systems) and also possibly hitting Yilden and the Technodyne Yards, the hurried and very short materials Oyster Bay hits only Manticore and Grayson.....BUT......by that time Honor is already effectivly in posession of the Haven home system and is NEGOTIATING a peace. She hasn't obliterated the RHN in the Haven home system-- and that fleet was fully aware that she could do that if she wanted to.
The second is that not only didn't the Alignment have enough ships for use in Oyster Bay to attack ANY of the Haven yards, they understood by this point that Haven had someplace they were building ships on a massive scale that the Alignment and nobody else know the location of.

This is explaining how the actual Oyster Bay happened. We know how and why it happened.

My question was what the LDs were originally intended for, before Oyster Bay was rushed.

They were supposed to blow up the haven and manticoran yards. That was directly stated by on the guys planning the op. But they couldn’t find bolthole and decided they needed to shut down manticore before they blew the RHN out if the war. So, given their available resources they went after just the RMN and GSN. Not the bestest plan ever.

tlb wrote:I can understand destroying the Haven economy, through the Dole, as a way to force Haven into an expansionist mode. This would force their navy to expand and improve through exercise.

I can understand making the League Navy corrupt, inefficient and ignorant. Taking them at their word, that the SLN was the finest fighting force in all inhabited space; then it was necessary to hobble its fighting ability to make the contest more even.

I think that Oyster Bay was just a nebulous contingency option in the original plan. A century or more prior there is no way to know who should be struck nor with what. A vague notion could exist that a secret attack to eliminate an obstacle might be needed; but they could not know that the Spider Drive could be invented (although their scientists would be working on many schemes) and they would not be sure which side was expected to be too advanced. So after the invention of the spider and as the Manticore - Haven War progressed, they saw that whoever won would be vastly superior to the forces of the League and began to plan specifically to prune that advantage. With the opening of the link to the Talbot Quandrant, they panicked and executed a rushed version of the plan to cripple the RMN; confident that a second attack on Haven would knock then back to a point where the Solarian - Haven War would be long and hard.

Interesting point. Makes me wonder how long ago they planned to plant a bomb on the SLN flagship - this could have originally been intended to cause command&control confusion rather than to disguise the nanites in Filareta's ops officer.

ThinksMarkedly wrote:Question 1: Before the war with Manticore and the technological advances from Project Gram, what were the MAlign planners counting on?

The PRN was just over one third the size of the active SLN Battle Fleet. Were the Detweilers counting on the PRN tripling in size in the next decade, after absorbing Manticore? Why would the Legislaturalists do that? Were they expecting an eventual absorption of the Andermani Empire and Silesia too? That would be a polity with 400 to 450 member systems. Less than a quarter the size of the SL, but with a much bigger navy proportionately because the members were added by way of conquest. And that would put it probably at least around 1930 PD.

I suspect the MAlign was going to do everything they could to prevent the Legislaturalists from ever carrying out reforms along the lines Pierre did. Indeed, part of the narrative they made up to support war with Manticore was that they needed the MWJ to continue propping up their system.

Although doomed to fail eventually, the Legis weren't going to change their strategy until it failed. After all, in this hypothetical scenario, it would have worked against Manticore, then Silesia/Anderman, etc.

Surely it'll work against the Sollies too.

kzt wrote:They were supposed to blow up the haven and manticoran yards. That was directly stated by on the guys planning the op. But they couldn’t find bolthole and decided they needed to shut down manticore before they blew the RHN out if the war. So, given their available resources they went after just the RMN and GSN. Not the bestest plan ever.

I know all that. What I'm asking is what they had to gain from blowing up the RHN yards in the first place. If they had crippled all of the Haven Sector navies, from what they understood of the technological advances, the SLN would have won quickly. That's not what they wanted or needed. They needed a long, drawn-out war where the atrocities escalated.

We know that they wanted to use the Lenny Dets for this and they weren't available. If they had been, they would have launched Oyster Bay on all targets at the time they did launch OB. What was the rationale? How does that lead to their goals?